SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014

[BigB0882]

I bet I could live to the rip age of 100 and this area of Louisiana would never again see 3 winter weather events within 3 weeks of each other, or in an entire season. What a wacky and amazing winter.

[northjaxpro]

BigB, that is why with the weather, never say never. Odds are indeed very high against seeing 3 consecutive weeks of wintry precip, which has occured across portions of the Deep South this season. However, the beauty of studying weather is always the probabilities and the variables of the unknowns and unforeseens!

Mother Nature has definitely given many across the Deep South several surprises this winter season. Definitely one for the archives for sure.

[PTrackerLA]

Wait...another event down here?!?!

Snippet from the AFD from NWS Lake Charles:

.OUTLOOK...

A LOW WILL EVOLVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY...IN
RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WESTERLY
TROUGH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW WILL DEEPEN WHILE LIFTING OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LOUISIANA.

IF THE LOW FOLLOWS AN OVER-TEXAS/LOUISIANA TRACK...A RAIN EVENT
IS POSSIBLE (CURRENT THINKING).

IF THE LOW FOLLOWS AN OVER-GULF WATER TRACK...A FREEZING RAIN
EVENT IS POSSIBLE.

[BigB0882]

I was already looking at that. I see 50% chance of rain on wed with highs falling every update. Now the high is at 50 and the low the night before is 40 but those can dip down 2-3 degrees every day as the event draws near. It already went down 3 just today. Anyway, it threw up a red flag.

[LaBreeze]

Wait...another event down here?!?!

Snippet from the AFD from NWS Lake Charles:

.OUTLOOK...

A LOW WILL EVOLVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY...IN
RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WESTERLY
TROUGH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW WILL DEEPEN WHILE LIFTING OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LOUISIANA.

IF THE LOW FOLLOWS AN OVER-TEXAS/LOUISIANA TRACK...A RAIN EVENT
IS POSSIBLE (CURRENT THINKING).

IF THE LOW FOLLOWS AN OVER-GULF WATER TRACK...A FREEZING RAIN
EVENT IS POSSIBLE.

What are your estimates on the chances of this taking the over-gulf track and allowing for freezing rain here in LA?

[BigB0882]

Tuesday is looking miserable. 44 for the high and raining. Temp is going to fall close to freezing but I assume the precip will be out before then. If it is anything like the past few weeks, we won't get to 44 and probably will stay in the upper 30s. I assume we don't need to worry about another winter weather event, the models seem to keep it all north of us but it appears this was a close call.

[vbhoutex]

Tuesday is looking miserable. 44 for the high and raining. Temp is going to fall close to freezing but I assume the precip will be out before then. If it is anything like the past few weeks, we won't get to 44 and probably will stay in the upper 30s. I assume we don't need to worry about another winter weather event, the models seem to keep it all north of us but it appears this was a close call.

About the same here in Houston with 37 and 33 predicted. Is it spring yet?

[southerngale]

Wow... again???




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[PTrackerLA]

I don't think we have anything to worry about. I don't see any model data that supports freezing rain to I-10 corridor.

[southerngale]

I don't think we have anything to worry about. I don't see any model data that supports freezing rain to I-10 corridor.

Yeah, maybe not over there. NWS just has all rain for y'all as it keeps your temps above freezing, but if it's colder than expected, it could creep into your forecast as well. We all know how quickly things can change. I wasn't expecting snow last week, but woke up to beautiful snow falling! And it wasn't the wet, slushy snow we usually get. This was light, fluffy, and powdery... just beautiful.

Anyway, all that said... I'm ready for spring. lol

[BigB0882]

Yeah, none of the models show us receiving anything and I don't think any show you guys receiving anything in SETX but I guess NWS thinks temps are close enough to put it in the forecast. I will definitely keep an eye on temps here tomorrow. They are calling for a high of 44 but we have often seen the highs struggle to get within even 5-6 degrees of the forecast on wet/cloudy days. The question will be how much do temps drop at sunset. Most models show the front stalling very near us so I think that is why our temps stay above freezing. If that front plows through further then maybe we will need to watch it but I really think this would be a HUGE surprise if no models show it. Models at least hinted at something last week.

[PTrackerLA]

I'm a cold weather fan and even I am growing tired of these gray/cloudy/raw days. The landscape is so ugly right now from all the freezes. Spring will be nice .

[Kennethb]

Yeah, none of the models show us receiving anything and I don't think any show you guys receiving anything in SETX but I guess NWS thinks temps are close enough to put it in the forecast. I will definitely keep an eye on temps here tomorrow. They are calling for a high of 44 but we have often seen the highs struggle to get within even 5-6 degrees of the forecast on wet/cloudy days. The question will be how much do temps drop at sunset. Most models show the front stalling very near us so I think that is why our temps stay above freezing. If that front plows through further then maybe we will need to watch it but I really think this would be a HUGE surprise if no models show it. Models at least hinted at something last week.

It is not the temperatures, but the dewpoints that will not drop enough to provide the possibility of wintry precipitation.

I expect Tuesday to be a classic wintry winter precip day with 37 degrees and rain in Baton Rouge with a dewpoint only in the low to mid 30's.

[PTrackerLA]

Currently experiencing a heavy thunderstorm with a temp of 33 degrees, I can't say I've seen this happen down here before! Forecast low tonight was only 34 and the dewpoint just dropped 3 degrees to 31. Interesting...

[vbhoutex]

32.8f and raining at my house in W. Houston. Going to watch closely even though radar suggests we are almost done with precip in Houston. OTOH it suggests you guys in LA are transitioning to freezing precip.

[BigB0882]

Is it really 33 there? My weather app shows 37 in Lafayette and 38 in Baton Rouge. I don't think the temps will fall enough for us to worry.

[windnrain]

BigB- 38 in Baton Rouge is already 6 degrees cooler than GFS had us at this time, and we weren't supposed to hit 38 until past midnight. That combined with lots of precip and what looks like freezing rain west of us... do we actually have a shot? I think we might!

[BigB0882]

There was just an image posted on Facebook and it shows how much the heavier rain brings down temps. The 33 in Lafayette is probably in that heavier rain.

[windnrain]

Weather Underground weather station map shows all of the gauges around us and in Baton Rouge at 36 now.

We really might get froze precip!

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

[Stormnut]

35 and thunder at my place