Winter 2010-11 for the Southern Plains

[cpdaman]

29 in oklahoma! yessss very nice to see cold weather this far south ...enjoy


it's currently 40 degrees in the high elevations of ncarolina for a high temp today....could be some flurries as upper low swing by.

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =KNCBEECH3

[Extremeweatherguy]

The first fantasy snowstorm of the year has made an appearance on today's long-range GFS:







If by some miracle this were to actually play out, then it would go down as Oklahoma City's earliest snowfall ever (the current record is October 25th). I highly doubt that will happen.. lol

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro suggests a big Upper Low to the W at hour 240, so you never know.

[somethingfunny]

I'll mark my calendar. October 18!

[Ntxw]

I don't buy that solution..yet but models have been showing consistently a chilly air mass coming down. Could be the first snowstorm of the season for the high plains (Colorado to the Dakotas). Probably a cool, damp time for the southern plains if a cutoff low develops.

[Portastorm]

It is worth noting that for several days now the GFS has been suggesting a turn to cooler weather during the last 10 days of October. And there are some very good weather minds who believe we'll see a western ridge/eastern trough setup due to relaxed Pacific flow and an active MJO wave.

[cpdaman]

not sure wether this has been talked about (esp NY NJ PA promet)

but it looks like the majority of the winter will be warmer than normal in the Northeast

with a cold period sometime late nov/ early-mid dec

this really S(*$*

[Portastorm]

Dunno about the Northeast, but I'm really thinking the Southern Plains on a whole will be above normal temps and below normal precip. I do, however, think we will see several Arctic outbreaks which will provide a dramatic change in the weather for brief periods. The very cold Arctic air will be available and the strong Pacific jet will buckle at times. We see it every La Nina winter.

[NY NJ PA Weather]

I would be VERY careful with that warm idea for the Plains on through the Northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast. I've been quiet lately as I've been working on the winter forecast. My hint right now, take a look at stratospheric anomalies over Greenland and North America along with the 500 MB QBO levels combined with the Indian Ocean convection.

[Ntxw]

I would be VERY careful with that warm idea for the Plains on through the Northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast. I've been quiet lately as I've been working on the winter forecast. My hint right now, take a look at stratospheric anomalies over Greenland and North America along with the 500 MB QBO levels combined with the Indian Ocean convection.

I have no doubt that there will be plenty of cold air readily available and the high plains will get plastered this winter. I think the southern plains will have surges of warmth battling with the cold more so than last year. However, I do find it odd that the models (though far out and unreliable) continues to swing cutoff lows through the southwest for late October which is something typical of an El Nino.

Also like today's system pushing down the plains through the midsouth, it too doesn't seem typical (Perhaps the SJT won't be as quiet as we thought cough cough hint take a look at what's going on west of the dateline/south-sw of Hawaii ). There's been a few of those.

Pacific seems cold, -pdo, different cycle than we've had data for, who knows!

[NY NJ PA Weather]

The latest data coming out on LA NINA strongly suggest a very strong east based La Nina combined with a negative PDO pattern. This La Nina is not your early to mid 2000 or even 90's La Nina. Heck, it's not even your 70's La Nina. We are in a totally different ball game. The rise of the AMO is striking and the forcing around India is a telling sign. Finally, you are right to be concerned about the strong upper low over the Plains and Northeast, however this is more of an indication of the volatility and energy in the Polar jet stream than the Sub Tropical Jet Stream.

Almost done with the winter update. I'll put a post up and put out the basic ideas when I'm all done.

[srainhoutx]

The latest data coming out on LA NINA strongly suggest a very strong east based La Nina combined with a negative PDO pattern. This La Nina is not your early to mid 2000 or even 90's La Nina. Heck, it's not even your 70's La Nina. We are in a totally different ball game. The rise of the AMO is striking and the forcing around India is a telling sign. Finally, you are right to be concerned about the strong upper low over the Plains and Northeast, however this is more of an indication of the volatility and energy in the Polar jet stream than the Sub Tropical Jet Stream.

Almost done with the winter update. I'll put a post up and put out the basic ideas when I'm all done.

We look forward to your update, NY NJ PA Weather. Good stuff folks.

[Ntxw]

Anyone want to take a guess when the first 'wintry' threat will be for any area of the southern plains? =p I'll say Nov 30th for Oklahoma Dec 10th for north Tx, Dec 15th for Central and Southeast Tx

[gboudx]

Can't wait to read that winter update. Thread subscribed.

[Portastorm]

Anyone want to take a guess when the first 'wintry' threat will be for any area of the southern plains? =p I'll say Nov 30th for Oklahoma Dec 10th for north Tx, Dec 15th for Central and Southeast Tx

During La Nina winters when there is very cold air to our north ... we have seen the prevailing jet stream buckle enough in the latter half of November to create possible wintry weather threats for parts of Texas. So, it is not out of the question that someone here may get a nice surprise around Thanksgiving. For example, 1955-56 was a La Nina winter and parts of West Austin got 1-3 inches of snow in late November. It can happen.

With the strength of the Nina this year almost unparalleled as well as the volatility of the Polar jet as NY NJ PA Weather describes ... we could be in for a few nice surprises this winter. Overall though I don't see how it will be anything but above average temps and below average precip.

[vbhoutex]

Anyone want to take a guess when the first 'wintry' threat will be for any area of the southern plains? =p I'll say Nov 30th for Oklahoma Dec 10th for north Tx, Dec 15th for Central and Southeast Tx

Nov 25th for OKC, Dec 5th for North TX, Dec 24th for Central TX and Dec 25th for SE TX(How's that for wishcasting? )

[CaptinCrunch]

Anyone want to take a guess when the first 'wintry' threat will be for any area of the southern plains? =p I'll say Nov 30th for Oklahoma Dec 10th for north Tx, Dec 15th for Central and Southeast Tx

During La Nina winters when there is very cold air to our north ... we have seen the prevailing jet stream buckle enough in the latter half of November to create possible wintry weather threats for parts of Texas. So, it is not out of the question that someone here may get a nice surprise around Thanksgiving. For example, 1955-56 was a La Nina winter and parts of West Austin got 1-3 inches of snow in late November. It can happen.

With the strength of the Nina this year almost unparalleled as well as the volatility of the Polar jet as NY NJ PA Weather describes ... we could be in for a few nice surprises this winter. Overall though I don't see how it will be anything but above average temps and below average precip.

This yrs La Nina looks different than past La Nina's for NTX. compairing last yrs El Nino for the months of Sept and Oct to this yrs La Nina for the same period.

El Nino Sept 2009 - Monthly avg was 76.1 (1.4 below avg) with 4.63 inches above avg rainfall
La Nina Sept 2010 - Monthly avg was 78.6 (1.9 above avg) with 6.67 inches above avg rainfall
El Nino Oct 2009 - Monthly avg was 62.7 (4.5 below avg) with 3.87 inches above avg rainfall
La Nina Oct 2010 - Monthly avg thru the 16th 68.3 (1.8 below avg) with 2.11 inches below avg rainfall

With half the month to go and rain chances back in te forcast we should close the gap on the rainfall totals, and with monthly temps looking to remain at or slightly above normal for highs and at or slighly below normal for lows October should end with a monthly avg at or below normal and precip slightly below normal. If La Nina continues to show a strong eastern base setup out winter here across NTX will be closer to normal than not.

[Portastorm]

That is true, Captin. An east-based Nina will keep temps at normal or slightly above normal for the winter for Texas ... with above average anamolies increasing the further south in the state you go.

The latest ENSO figures still show an east-based Nina with the strongest negative SST anamolies being in the east-central Pacific Ocean. Going to be very interesting to watch.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Another *probably* fantasy snowstorm on today's long range GFS just 2-3 days before halloween...

SURFACE







850MB







While this run is likely nothing but pure fiction, it is worth noting that it has actually snowed in OKC during the last part of the month before. It is definitely not a common occurrence though! since 1891 it has happened less than 10 times total. The most recent October snow occurred on Halloween day 1991 when a trace fell, and the greatest one day October accumulations are 0.5" and 0.8", both happening in 1913 on the 26th and 29th of the month. It would be pretty interesting to see a repeat scenario of such events, but until we are seeing GFS runs like this in the near term, its not worth getting excited about.

[Ntxw]

^ If it were December I might consider it a remote possibility. Could use the pattern change for some rain, been somewhat dry lately.