2011/2012 Denver Winter Weather: Maybe this year!

[denversnowlover]

So question to all of you. What are your predictions for our winter in Denver this year?

[PTPatrick]

Well, I enjoyed the snowy streak while it lasted. Next two week on gfs are looking pretty dry east of the divide. CPC has us below normal temps and below normal precipitation for the next couple weeks too.

[Dencolo]

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/bou/precip/precip_map.php

Snowfall map for last storm. Again, strangely similar to the previous storm. Look like about 6-8" downtown along with me in Littleton. About the same for both storms. Again, Greeley and Fort Collins appeared to do better. The only real difference I see is places like Castle Rock and Parker did get their usual inflated amount. Maybe I got dry slotted overnight as based on the surrounding totals, I should have received a little more.

What's interesting is how hard it is to forecast local amounts. As with the last two storms, the NWS has stated that the southern and western suburbs should get the bulk of the snow. But places like Broomfield, Thornton and up towards FC have received quite a bit.

[SCMedic]

2-4" tomorrow evening. Not too bad.

[denversnowlover]

come on storm wobble north a bit

[denversnowlover]

Anyone seeing a positive shift for snow in Denver yet?

[SCMedic]

NW flow kicking in for the next 5-7 days... All I see is mild and windy.

[Dencolo]

Last storm was quite a bust, huh? GFS really never showed much and ended up being correct. That's what you get with the more compact storms.

[PTPatrick]

Looks like next 2 weeks is bone dry on gfs. And agreed last storm wa bus. I never trusted the forecasts. Seems like almost always when one model shows nothing it ends up that way. Hopefully the pattern will swing around thanksgiving, but who knows.

[PTPatrick]

Well so much for november ending up snowy. Long range has us dry through the month an even into December 7th. What a crappy pattern to get stuck in, it feels like last winter all over...

[PTPatrick]

This weeks system is looking a little better...nam wet, gfs not as much...dang cold though, single digits Thursday night hoping with these cold temps, limited qpf will still produce 3-6 inches.

[PTPatrick]

This one looks like it could be a sneaky doozy. NAM is staying in the .75+ inch range on QPF which with these frigid temps coming could be quite a storm with foot plus amounts over the south and west metro. THey dont seem to be biting on that though. GFS is trending wetter, now with .25-.5 for the metro, which could still translate to 5-10 inches. And with teens and single digits thursday nothing will be melting. Overall should hpoefully be a nice surprise storm. Wasnt looking like much a couple days ago.

[SCMedic]

WS watch is up. I'm looking 4-6" at my house. I don't see us doing upward of a foot as the NAM is still the outlier by a good bit. Trend is wetter on the GFS ensamble though, so that's good.

[PTPatrick]

yeah, like I said, I think NAM Will back off too, but I am betting they trend toward each other and meet somewhere around a half inch. EIther way half an inch "could" do around a foot in upslope areas in the foothills, castle rock, and parker with dedtritic growth strong in this cold airmass. I am thinking downtown will be around 5 or 6 inches.

I noticed this weekend is shaping up to be snowy again with a slight break on friday, something about this low getting hung up in arizona through the weekend. GFS is still lowish on the precip amounts but track could still change. It is going to be near the 4 corners at some point and that is often a good setup for us. but 6 inches on thursday followed by 3 or 4 saturday would set up a nice little snow pack down here in the flatlands.

[Dencolo]

Does anyone remember the last time it snowed with snow already on the ground. I don't think it happened at all last year. Should happen this weekend if things turn out right.

[PTPatrick]

So models haven't changed much, based on latest qpfs GFS 06z was stil around 4-8 for the metro. 12z nam hanging on with more like 6-12. For what s worth Canadian is middling with right at a half inch of liquid, or roughly 5-10. So looks to be a good storm regardless. Still would like a bit more consensus between gfs and nam but it's not likely to much difference. WSW says 3-5 tonight and 2-4 tomorrow which I think seems right....ie, any foot amounts should stay outside c-470.


06z gfs is trending closer Saturday's system and slightly higher with qpf.

[PTPatrick]

Local mets still not biting on Nam....probably a good bet since it was overdone both the last storms. They are stuck on 3-6 metro which seems reasonable but I expect closer to 6 for most of the are south of 70...dia and Brighton likely closer to 3. Just a wwa, warning, which I suppose it's a big surprise.

[denversnowlover]

It seems like the system has good moisture with it and with how cold it will be i could see it accumulating at the higher end...Do you think they may put a warning out?? Models seem like that should be the case.

[PTPatrick]

actually the moisture could be much better. There is no low due south of us to draw it all up from the gulf. Its going to be dealing with a dry artic airmass from the north interacting with moisture ejecting from the storm system in the desert southwest. There almost HAS to be a bonafide storm (ie, closed low) over the 4 corners tracking east to get the best upslope/moisture combo here in Denver...those storms are the ones where the totals rack up toward 8-12 inches. This storm has a low but its way back over western AZ/Cali so its just not going to give the kind of lift you need to get higher amounts. The low will eventually eject on saturday into the afformentioned position (CO/NM border into the plains) and that will give us the second shot of snow. If it were all happening at once tomorrow into friday we would have an all out blizzard on our hands...but you can only do so well with just one or the other ... in this situation the storm is usually quick, followed by rapid drying and bitter cold nights, and usually only manage 3-7 inches snow.

[CajunMama]

Hi guys!!!!! Here's to hoping y'all have a snowy winter!!!!!! If you do we'll be expecting pics!