SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014

[vbhoutex]

Continued cold and drippy according to Jeff:

Cold and cloudy weather will continue for much of the week as the pattern remains pretty much unchanged.

Secondary surge of cold high pressure from the north will arrive tonight with increasing north winds. Ahead of this boundary moisture continues to stream northward off the Gulf and upglide over the top of the cold dome at the surface. Luckily surface temperatures have crept upward with decreasing cold air advection in the past 24 hours and range from the upper 30’s to upper 40’s across the area….which has prevented a repeat of the icy conditions on the roadways W and N of Houston from Saturday night. Expect maybe a 4-5 degree of warming today from current values as drizzle and light rain develop.

Front will pass the area this evening brining areas north of I-10 back toward freezing tonight. Expect to see drizzle end prior to the onset of freezing temperatures, but any delay in the ending of the drizzle could again result in ice accumulation on bridges and overpasses mainly north of a line from College Station to Huntsville. For the first time since last Wednesday the sun may actually break out on Tuesday…but this is dependent on dry air mixing out the stubborn moisture layer trapped in the frontal inversion. Should see highs warm in the 50’s across the area Tuesday and Wednesday which is hot compared to the highs near freezing on Saturday.

Next storm system already spinning off the west coast will arrive into the state by late in the week. Coastal low situation develops offshore of the lower TX coast, but the latest guidance has trended drier. Expect to see increasing clouds again on Wednesday followed by cloudy, cold, and drizzle conditions Thursday. Better rain chances will arrive Friday as the storm system moves across the state. While temperatures will remain cold by TX standards they will be above freezing and after tonight there should be no additional P-type concerns across this area….all rain.

Note: College Station spent 41 hours at or below freezing during this cold air outbreak

[vbhoutex]

And Jeff is correct. Currently 43f and dripping outside. UGH!!

[Jagno]

What's with this Christmas week storm that everyone is concerned about? I've seen it mentioned on several other boards. I think they said it was projected to begin around the 19th or so leaving 3/4's of the USA in very cold, snowy and frozen conditions. Some of those maps looked scary.

[BigB0882]

Check out the TX thread, Jagno. It has been covered in depth in that thread.

[Jagno]

Thanks BigBo882, it was helpful if I lived in North or Central Texas. I live in SW LA and I'll admit that this storm has me a bit concerned about how this storm will affect OUR area here.

[Jagno]

http://www.kplctv.com/story/24206329/wh ... -christmas

Our local met gave a nice summary of what we might be expecting Christmas week.

[LaBreeze]

Information on what SW Louisiana is expecting for Christmas week? I know things are flip-flopping and will change, but just wondering as of now. Thanks in advance

[BigB0882]

Here is the 6z output from the GFS for Lafayette. Christmas week is still in their longer range of forecasting, so this will continue to change and probably drastically:

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KLFT

[PTrackerLA]

Very heavy frost this morning my home weather station was showing 29.5 when I got up officially looks like we hit 30-31 when we weren't forecast to even reach freezing. Looks like the "arctic blast" is all but off the table and it could get to near 80 this weekend . At least temperatures look at little below normal for Christmas as of now.

[Jagno]

You know Christmas is near in SW Louisiana when you wake up to 69 degrees and 93% humidity.

It looks like a stormy weekend ahead for many of us here.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
458 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2013

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
211200-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
458 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO...DENSE SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND PARISHES TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SCATTERED STORMS THAT DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FROM MID MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY...WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ROTATE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. A LINE OF STORMS IS THEN EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SYSTEM BY MID AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING OVER SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL...AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS LINE. STRAIGHT LINE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE
THE MAIN HAZARDS.

A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT SETTLES OVER THE REGION...A LIGHT
FREEZE MAY OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND UPPER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

[vbhoutex]

You know Christmas is near in SW Louisiana when you wake up to 69 degrees and 93% humidity.

It looks like a stormy weekend ahead for many of us

Ain't that the truth!!! Same holds for SE TX!!

Here is the latest from Jeff Lindner:

A powerful storm system will bring a threat for severe weather to the region late tonight into Saturday.

A strong upper level storm system over the SW US is progressing toward TX this morning and in response impressive warm air advection over the past 24-36 hours has led to a rapid increase in moisture over the region with dewpoints in the upper 60’s areawide. These warm dewpoints over the colder nearshore waters has fostered the development of dense sea fog which extends along the entire upper and middle TX coast this morning and has spread inland along a line from Victoria to Beaumont. This fog will continue to plague the coastal locations until a front passes on Saturday.

Severe Threat:

Strong winter storm system with lots of wind energy will be crossing the state late tonight into Saturday. Soundings from Thursday evening across eastern TX showed a moist surface layer capped off by warm air in the mid levels and this will continue today and likely into tonight. Could see a few scattered fast moving showers under the cap today across the region.

Strong lift begins to approach after midnight tonight and this will help in eroding the capping inversion. Wind profiles really ramp up with a powerful low level jet of 45-55kts just above the surface tonight with winds veering to SW at the mid levels and WSW at the upper levels. A 140kt jet stream will be carving into the area by early Saturday morning as the base of the upper trough pulls into W TX and turns NE. A surface cold front will approach our northern counties this evening and likely stall as surface low pressure forms over central TX. While wind profiles look impressive, instability is really lacking. Best instability values I could find on any of the model guidance was around 1500 J/kg with most of the values between 800-1000 J/kg. When dealing with such strong wind speeds, you need good instability to force the updrafts or there is the potential for the strong winds to quickly tilt a weaker updraft…a balance is needed. The incoming upper forcing Saturday morning could help with sustaining updrafts and if that happens and updrafts can utilize the veering wind profiles supercells would be possible with a damaging wind and tornado threat.

I would typically be worried about a low level boundary (ie the stalling cold front) helping to enhance the low level shear and promoting a better tornado threat, but again it is not the shear in question but the needed surface energy…still will need to keep a close eye over our northern counties to see exactly where the shallow cold front begins to stall this evening as this area will be closest to the strongest lift and best low level shear environment.

Expect showers and thunderstorms to begin to increase in the 300am-600am time period from WSW to ENE across the area. Best severe weather window appears to be from about sunrise to just after noon on Saturday which is not an overly favorable severe weather time of day….however when dealing with winter severe weather outbreaks you don’t need much heating when such strong dynamics are at play aloft. Think we may see a broken line of thunderstorms form over central TX and move quickly across the region with wind damaging being the primary threat. Models have at times attempted to develop storms (supercells) ahead of the main line with a tornado threat, but this appears very conditional at the moment and highly dependent on the capping inversion weakening enough. Would not rule out a tornado with any sustained supercell structure either ahead or within the line given the forecasted wind profiles. SPC Day 2 outlook has the entire area include in a slight risk….but think the best severe chances are generally NE of a line from Columbus to Freeport where capping is weakest and lift strongest. Storm motions will be extremely fast on the order of 40-50kts so the forward motions alone could generate some wind damage…this will also limit warning lead times and weather conditions will change very quickly.

System should exit the region by late Saturday afternoon with a dryline punching across the region. Actual cold front will arrive on Sunday bringing cooler temperatures for the first of next week with low falling into the 30’s and highs in the 50’s under mainly sunny skies.

Christmas:

Looks like Christmas may feature increasing clouds as wind turn back to the south ahead of the next storm system. Temperatures look to be in the 40’s for lows and upper 50’s for highs with the potential for some slight rain chances by late afternoon and evening.

[ravyrn]

East Sulphur, all of Westlake, and portions of Moss Bluff are to shelter in place due to the fire at Axiall. Stay safe down that way!

From KPLC Facebook Page:

There are no injuries reported from the incident at Axiall in Westlake. The fire, which started at 1:30 p.m., has forced the evacuation of the plant. There is a shelter in place issued for all of Westlake, east parts of Sulphur and parts of Moss Bluff.

[ravyrn]

I-10 closed, traffic being rerouted to 210.

[vbhoutex]

Had some strong showers, a few claps of thunder, some gusty winds and a temp drop from 73f-57f with the last round of rain. Looks like we are done with the rains in W. Houston based on radar. Gauge showing 0.55" so far.

[Jagno]

Wind and some rain but certainly nothing to write home about. We are indeed blessed since some weren't so lucky it seems. Have a terrific weekend.

[vbhoutex]

Had some strong showers, a few claps of thunder, some gusty winds and a temp drop from 73f-57f with the last round of rain. Looks like we are done with the rains in W. Houston based on radar. Gauge showing 0.55" so far.

And we weren't done with the rain. Have had two more rounds this evening. Nothing strong however.

[CajunMama]

I woke up to thunderstorms in New Orleans this morning. Surprise! Surprise! Luckily the drive back home was dry.

[vbhoutex]

Woke up to 31f this am. I believe that is our 4th freeze so far this Winter, which is above average and totally unlike last years Winter that wasn't. We didn't have 4 freezes last Winter.

[vbhoutex]

And 30f this am at wake up. That is two days in a row. I don't think we had any two day in a row morning freezes last Winter.

[Jagno]

Perfect Christmas weather! Wishing everyone an amazing Christmas!