spencer817 wrote:Fv3 would be awesome if it were just a bit cooler!
12z FV3 and GFS both show snow mixing in at hour 90-96 in the DFW area. Agreed, if temps are just a few degrees colder, we could get a good little surprise out of this.
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spencer817 wrote:Fv3 would be awesome if it were just a bit cooler!
spencer817 wrote:Fv3 would be awesome if it were just a bit cooler!
bubba hotep wrote:spencer817 wrote:Fv3 would be awesome if it were just a bit cooler!
https://i.ibb.co/xhvqWQ7/Capture-2018-12-10-11-43-10-2.png
Quixotic wrote:Everything but the surface temps looks ideal.
Cpv17 wrote:12z Euro has a 1045mb high in Colorado. Southeast Texas gets pretty chilly later this week.
Brent wrote:looks like the Euro bullseyes just SW of the metro again, though its a bit closer this time, 3 inches in Johnson County, a little towards Fort Worth
orangeblood wrote:Brent wrote:looks like the Euro bullseyes just SW of the metro again, though its a bit closer this time, 3 inches in Johnson County, a little towards Fort Worth
wouldn't get too caught up in bullseyes quite yet in the 72-84 hr range, its the upper level dynamics coming together is the 1st step
orangeblood wrote:Cpv17 wrote:12z Euro has a 1045mb high in Colorado. Southeast Texas gets pretty chilly later this week.
Appears to be just a plateau high with air originating from the Pacific, nothing too abnormal
Ntxw wrote:The deeper the 5h low the better. I'd say sub 540 or more is better. And I would avoid the 10:1 ratio maps it will be much lower. With not that cold surface temps.
orangeblood wrote:Ntxw wrote:The deeper the 5h low the better. I'd say sub 540 or more is better. And I would avoid the 10:1 ratio maps it will be much lower. With not that cold surface temps.
Yep I think you're right..... with almost zero sub-freezing surface air to tap into, this is going to take negative high 4's to low 5's standard deviations at the 500Mb level to produce snow down to surface
Ntxw wrote:orangeblood wrote:Ntxw wrote:The deeper the 5h low the better. I'd say sub 540 or more is better. And I would avoid the 10:1 ratio maps it will be much lower. With not that cold surface temps.
Yep I think you're right..... with almost zero sub-freezing surface air to tap into, this is going to take negative high 4's to low 5's standard deviations at the 500Mb level to produce snow down to surface
This is the kind of stuff we have been raving for though with the right Nino and low solar. These are potent ULL and eventually with climo, they will all try to snow as it gets closer deeper into the season.
Ntxw wrote:orangeblood wrote:Ntxw wrote:The deeper the 5h low the better. I'd say sub 540 or more is better. And I would avoid the 10:1 ratio maps it will be much lower. With not that cold surface temps.
Yep I think you're right..... with almost zero sub-freezing surface air to tap into, this is going to take negative high 4's to low 5's standard deviations at the 500Mb level to produce snow down to surface
This is the kind of stuff we have been raving for though with the right Nino and low solar. These are potent ULL and eventually with climo, they will all try to snow as it gets closer deeper into the season.
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