Texas Winter 2017-2018

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Is it me, or is that line out west of DFW moving incredibly slow?

[Ntxw]

OKC was near 70 at daybreak this morning. Now 30F and icy

[Ntxw]

Is it me, or is that line out west of DFW moving incredibly slow?

It is slow. But that's what I meant this morning when HRRR slows it down and pours rain over metroplex earlier post. Some strong rainfall rates when it hits

[orangeblood]

Temps across NW Oklahoma are running a good bit colder than short range guidance, so that might be something to keep an eye on as the cold pushes south.

With warm air aloft and warm ground temps, I would imagine this will take temps down into the upper 20's to cause any major issues

[utweather]

Another record hi low at DFW this morning.

I think Austin has had 2 days in a row also. 80s appeared also. February's much below average temps are in jeopardy of just being slightly below average or basically average. Thats still a whole lot better than trying to break record warmth months each year, year after year. Cloud cover is doing its best to keep highs down. Maybe next winter can compete with this winter for lower temps.

[bubba hotep]

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0018
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1111 AM EST TUE FEB 20 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TO N-CNTRL TX INTO SERN OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 201605Z - 202105Z

SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL
TO N-CNTRL TX INTO SERN OK THROUGH 21Z. RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5 TO
2.5 IN/HR COULD LEAD TO 6 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 3-5 INCHES
ON A LOCALIZED BASIS.

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY AT 1530Z SHOWED A BROKEN LINE OF
LARGELY ELEVATED CONVECTION EXTENDING SSW FROM THE CNTRL TX/OK
BORDER TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. BRIEF PERIODS OF TRAINING WERE
NOTED ALONG THIS LINE OVER EASTLAND AND PALO PINTO COUNTIES WITH
DUAL-POL ESTIMATED RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5 TO 2.5 IN/HR. CIRA
LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS SHOWED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO
ERN TX/ERN OK WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOWING A DIRECT
CONNECTION TO THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC. 12Z RAOB DATA FROM OUN
AND FWD ALONG WITH RECENT GPS MEASUREMENTS INDICATED PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WERE ROUGHLY 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTH THROUGH OK. INSTABILITY WAS SOMEWHAT OF A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION...BUT 250-750 J/KG
ESTIMATED MUCAPE PER RECENT DATA FROM THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE IS
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...INSTABILITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-20 AS SEEN IN RECENT
HRRR MODEL RUNS. RAP DATA SHOWS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
TIED TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A LARGE JET CORE EXTENDING
FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ALONG WITH MODERATELY
DIFFLUENT WIND VECTORS. WINDS FROM 850-200 MB ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL
FROM THE SSW AND ESTIMATED INFLOW AT 850 MB MEETS OR EXCEEDS
OBSERVED STORM MOTIONS OF 30-40 KT ACROSS NRN TX... SUPPORTIVE OF
TRAINING.

THE EXPECTATION IS FOR CONVECTION TO INCREASE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
CNTRL TX...CONNECTING WITH ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH...WITH
THE WHOLE AREA SLOWLY MIGRATING TOWARD THE EAST IN A BROKEN
FASHION. EMBEDDED ELEMENTS OF TRAINING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ANYWHERE SOUTHWEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX INTO SERN OK AS EVIDENCED
BY A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z HI-RES MODEL SUITE. A BROAD 1-3 INCHES
APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH 21Z ACROSS THE MPD THREAT AREA WITH
LOCALIZED POCKETS OF 3-5 INCHES POSSIBLE...WHICH SHOULD FALL ON A
2-4 HOUR TIME SCALE...IN EXCESS OF FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ACROSS THE REGION.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

[SouthernMet]

OKC issues WWA for freezing rain/sleet. Real-time temps have dropped to 27-28 degrees. Even NAM/RGEM were 4-8 degrees too warm.

[Brent]

Is it me, or is that line out west of DFW moving incredibly slow?

Rush hour is gonna be nasty

Just hoping i can get on the ground in Dallas

[orangeblood]

1071 HP sighting in Alaska on the latest GFS run...this is typically the range it can pick up on big outbreaks far in advance

[Cerlin]

Is it me, or is that line out west of DFW moving incredibly slow?

Rush hour is gonna be nasty

Just hoping i can get on the ground in Dallas

As am I. My flight is Orlando to DFW and the plane is on time from DFW so it seems like planes are having no trouble taking of from DFW currently. Just hoping I can get in in a window without storms.

[Brent]

Is it me, or is that line out west of DFW moving incredibly slow?

Rush hour is gonna be nasty

Just hoping i can get on the ground in Dallas

As am I. My flight is Orlando to DFW and the plane is on time from DFW so it seems like planes are having no trouble taking of from DFW currently. Just hoping I can get in in a window without storms.

When i was on the subway coming to the airport mine went to delayed an hour but now its back to on time in 45 minutes so maybe we can get in before it hits. My plane also came from DFW and its here

[Cerlin]

Rush hour is gonna be nasty

Just hoping i can get on the ground in Dallas

As am I. My flight is Orlando to DFW and the plane is on time from DFW so it seems like planes are having no trouble taking of from DFW currently. Just hoping I can get in in a window without storms.

When i was on the subway coming to the airport mine went to delayed an hour but now its back to on time in 45 minutes so maybe we can get in before it hits. My plane also came from DFW and its here

My flight leaves at 3:30 eastern time so if everything goes according to plan I should be in DFW at about 4:45-5:00 cst, hopefully it’ll be in a storm-less window.

[wxman57]

When i was on the subway coming to the airport mine went to delayed an hour but now its back to on time in 45 minutes so maybe we can get in before it hits. My plane also came from DFW and its here

Remember, just because you take off heading for DFW doesn't mean you'll land there. I've had flights land in Alexandria and Austin on my way home to Houston. If the squalls are in the DFW area when your plane is approaching, then you could get diverted elsewhere.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

When i was on the subway coming to the airport mine went to delayed an hour but now its back to on time in 45 minutes so maybe we can get in before it hits. My plane also came from DFW and its here

Remember, just because you take off heading for DFW doesn't mean you'll land there. I've had flights land in Alexandria and Austin on my way home to Houston. If the squalls are in the DFW area when your plane is approaching, then you could get diverted elsewhere.

Yep. I've landed in Tyler and Shreveport to wait out storms at DFW.

[gpsnowman]

Well if DFW gets a 40 degree drop like OKC, it will be interesting around here. When is the front due to push through?

[rwfromkansas]

Big mass of storms fell apart over DFW, now more scattered...but more coming.

Around .40 so far today so quite a bit for just morning.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Pretty crazy temp drop. Was 72 a little while ago and now its currently 39 with heavy rain.

[Texas Snowman]

Closing in on an inch of rainfall here in Denison. Still coming down really hard.

[Brent]

Well we're about to takeoff for Dallas... Radar doesn't look too grim at this moment

Correction we rushed on the plane to wait 45 minutes to takeoff lol

[opticsguy]

Wow, OKC at 18Z 5 degrees colder than NAM forecast