Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Jarodm12]

18z nam coming in colder : D

[wxman57]

HOLY MOLY has anyone seen the WRF models alrighty get ready what do you all think

I think the WRF is indicating some sleet in the DFW area as the rain tapers off. Surface temps 30-32F, 850m (5000 ft) temps nearly 50 degrees. That would indicate sleet and possibly freezing rain. 12km NAM was indicating up to 5" of snow in the Fort Worth area, though it is predicting surface temps in the mid to upper 30s and temps at 5000 ft in the upper 40s. That's ridiculous. It's a rain profile.

[orangeblood]

HOLY MOLY has anyone seen the WRF models alrighty get ready what do you all think

I think the WRF is indicating some sleet in the DFW area as the rain tapers off. Surface temps 30-32F, 850m (5000 ft) temps nearly 50 degrees. That would indicate sleet and possibly freezing rain. 12km NAM was indicating up to 5" of snow in the Fort Worth area, though it is predicting surface temps in the mid to upper 30s and temps at 5000 ft in the upper 40s. That's ridiculous. It's a rain profile.

18Z Run is still 5-6 Deg F too warm....OKC forecast temp at 2pm is 31 F, currently sitting at 26F. You have to weight that into your forecast, don't you ?

[bubba hotep]

15z SREF came in colder for DFW and has been trending that way since yesterday. Currently, the coldest members are verifying in OKC and if that were to carry forward to DFW then we are talking temps close to 29F.

[Cpv17]

I’m not expecting much of an event south of I-10 where I am. Might get an inch of rain here if I’m lucky.

[Ntxw]

15z SREF came in colder for DFW and has been trending that way since yesterday. Currently, the coldest members are verifying in OKC and if that were to carry forward to DFW then we are talking temps close to 29F.

That would present a huge problem and hopefully doesn't verify.

[CaptinCrunch]

15z SREF came in colder for DFW and has been trending that way since yesterday. Currently, the coldest members are verifying in OKC and if that were to carry forward to DFW then we are talking temps close to 29F.

NAM has done poorly all winter with temps and precip type, no reason to belive it's correct now.

[Jarodm12]

15z SREF came in colder for DFW and has been trending that way since yesterday. Currently, the coldest members are verifying in OKC and if that were to carry forward to DFW then we are talking temps close to 29F.

I think we are in for a surprise but thats just my gut feeling and yes my heart wants some sleet. However no one can deny surface temps being colder than initializing so right now who knows whats going to happen but night is coming and the front is on the move also the HRRR model has a very well developed Low pressure moving in. This could get interesting rather quickly or just be a very cold rain we shall see

[weatherdude1108]

I’m not expecting much of an event south of I-10 where I am. Might get an inch of rain here if I’m lucky.

Which area of the state are you in? We've hardly gotten anything down here so far. Puddles in streets. Ground still absorbing whatever falls. Not muddy at all in a field next to work (just walked in it). Maybe tonight will be a bigger show.

[Cerlin]

I’m hoping for a winter event for DFW but based on how this winter has gone, i can’t say I’m very optimistic.

[CaptinCrunch]

if current observations are correct, it's 72 @ DFW, 53 Decatur, 37 Bowie, 32 Wichita Falls

[Yukon Cornelius]

if current observations are correct, it's 72 @ DFW, 53 Decatur, 37 Bowie, 32 Wichita Falls

I can confirm the WF one is correct.

[wxman57]

HOLY MOLY has anyone seen the WRF models alrighty get ready what do you all think

I think the WRF is indicating some sleet in the DFW area as the rain tapers off. Surface temps 30-32F, 850m (5000 ft) temps nearly 50 degrees. That would indicate sleet and possibly freezing rain. 12km NAM was indicating up to 5" of snow in the Fort Worth area, though it is predicting surface temps in the mid to upper 30s and temps at 5000 ft in the upper 40s. That's ridiculous. It's a rain profile.

18Z Run is still 5-6 Deg F too warm....OKC forecast temp at 2pm is 31 F, currently sitting at 26F. You have to weight that into your forecast, don't you ?

Definitely, I think the NAM is bonkers with that snow forecast, and the WRF is probably overdoing the sleet as well. More likely cold rain.

[SouthernMet]

Montague-Cooke-Young-Jack-Wise-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-
Eastland-
Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Graham,
Olney, Jacksboro, Decatur, Bridgeport, Breckenridge,
Mineral Wells, Weatherford, Briar, Cisco, Eastland, Ranger,
and Gorman
242 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 PM CST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of up to
1/10 of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of North Texas from Cisco to Weatherford to
Gainesville and areas north and west of there.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Ice accumulations up to 1/10 of an inch
will result in dangerous travel conditions, especially on
elevated roads and bridges.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads.
Slow down and use caution while driving. The latest road
conditions for Texas can be found at drivetexas.org.

[DonWrk]

Man that cold hit hard! Went from sweating to freezing like walking in and out of a door quick!

[gpsnowman]

Man that cold hit hard! Went from sweating to freezing like walking in and out of a door quick!

This humidity is absolutely disgusting. Come on front!!!! Doesn't help that my after work bar is not running its a/c. Miller Time comes early with my hours.

[CaptinCrunch]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
251 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018


.SHORT TERM...
/Tonight/

Multiple shortwaves continue to work their way around a parent
trough located across the Rockies, generating enough lift to
produce numerous showers and storms across the North and Central
Texas. The axis of heavier precipitation has thus far remained
over the western two-thirds of the forecast area. Convection is
currently beginning to become focused along a cold front currently
making its way into the northwestern zones. The axis of heavier
precipitation will shift to the southeast tonight as the front
pushes southeast through the forecast area. A few strong to
marginally severe storms will remain possible due to good shear
and modest instability, but the focus will shift to heavy rain and
possible flooding over the next 24 hours.

Another issue that we have been monitoring over the past few days
is the amount of cold air present behind the front. Judging by
upstream observations, it is one again appearing that the NAM has
done a better job depicting the cold air within the shallow arctic
airmass. The latest temperature forecast has leaned toward the
colder NAM, which indicates sub-freezing temperatures across the
northwest counties overnight and through most of the day
tomorrow. The threat for a switch-over to freezing rain is
looking more likely overnight and Wednesday for areas to the west
and northwest of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. A Winter Weather
Advisory has been issued for areas along and northwest of a line
from Gainesville to Weatherford to Eastland, where freezing rain
accumulations between a hundredth and a tenth of an inch will be
possible late tonight through Wednesday.

Travel west on I-20, northwest on Highway 287 and north on
Interstate 35 could become difficult at times by midday Wednesday.
The advisory is set to expire at 6 PM Wednesday, but may need to
be extended if future trends suggest that cold air and precipitation
will linger beyond that time. In addition, if later guidance
trends colder farther south, we may see some minor impacts creep
into the Metroplex during the morning hours Wednesday. Will leave
it to the evening and overnight shifts to monitor temperatures
and adjust the advisory area if it becomes necessary.

[Cpv17]

I’m not expecting much of an event south of I-10 where I am. Might get an inch of rain here if I’m lucky.

Which area of the state are you in? We've hardly gotten anything down here so far. Puddles in streets. Ground still absorbing whatever falls. Not muddy at all in a field next to work (just walked in it). Maybe tonight will be a bigger show.

I’m in the Wharton/El Campo area.

[starsfan65]

Man that cold hit hard! Went from sweating to freezing like walking in and out of a door quick!

When is the front is going through DFW?

[CaptinCrunch]

Man that cold hit hard! Went from sweating to freezing like walking in and out of a door quick!

When is the front is going through DFW?

Front is 2-3 hours ahead of forecast, currently the front has came through Denten as it's now 53 there, 44 in Decatur. I say it should be well into the DFW area by 6pm