North Texas Winter 08/09. Analogs, Forecast, and Discussions

[CaptinCrunch]

Welcome to another Winter Season here in North Texas, but I first want you to know that my thoughts and prayers are with my S2K family along the TX Gulf Coast, I just hope everyone is safe, and I look forward to hearing from yall soon.


Now for some Winter insight here in NTX, I put this in another thread but I want to use it here as well.

I've said it every year and I will say it again this year, "IF" it's cold enought for pants and heavy jackets on Halloween night here, then winter (Dec-Feb) will be average to colder than average in NTX. "IF" it's wet, and cold on Halloween, then we will have better than average chances for snow/Ice thru the winter months. Last year "07" was shorts weather for Halloween, Hot and sticky. I think it was in the lower 80's and we saw what winter was like in NTX last year.

Halloween 06 was cold, got down into the upper 40's that night, hell I even lit the fireplace, plus we had a light rain the next morning, and that coming winter was slightly colder and wetter than normal and it even snowed a few times.


"North Texas Halloween analog"

Here are 4 Halloweens and their following winter +/- snow fall. I didn't include amounts but the 2 winters that saw snow fall equaled about 5.5" total for each winter. Not listed are Halloween 2000 (cold) which Winter 00/01 was colder than avg, and Halloween 2005 (warm) which Winter 05/06 was warmer than avg.


October 31st 2002.. H/52.. L/46.. Avg/49
Dec 02.. AV.. H/57.5.. L/37.9.. 1.0 above normal, # of days w/recorded snow fall 1
Jan 03.. AV.. H/54.4.. L/33.0.. -0.4 below normal, # of days w/recorded snow fall 1
Feb 03.. AV.. H/54.6.. L/36.6.. -3.4 below normal, # of days w/recorded snow fall 3

October 31, 2003.. H/87.. L/72.. Avg/80
Dec 03.. AV.. H/61.1.. L/38.2.. 3.4 above normal, No snow
Jan 04.. AV.. H/58.5.. L/38.5.. 4.4 above normal, No snow
Feb 04.. AV.. H/54.6.. L/37.0.. -3.6 below normal, # of days w/recorded snow fall 2

October 31, 2004.. H/84.. L/62.. Avg/73
Dec 04.. AV.. H/60.0.. L/37.7.. 2.2 above normal, No snow
Jan 05.. AV.. H/59.5.. L/39.6.. 5.4 above normal, No snow
Feb 05.. AV.. H/61.5.. L/43.6.. 3.2 above normal, No snow

October 31, 2006.. H/70.. L/45.. Avg/58
Dec 06.. AV.. H/60.0.. L/40.0.. 3.2 above normal, No snow
Jan 07.. AV.. H/50.4.. L/34.1.. -1.8 below normal, # of days w/recorded snow fall 2
Feb 07.. AV.. H/60.4.. L/38.3.. -1.0 below normal, # of days w/recorded snow fall 3

If I were to give you my best Winter forecast now I would say this coming Halloween will be cold high's in the 50's and windy. Here a awesome link to the Polar Ice coverage, noitce how we have more ice coverage at this time compared to what we had this same time last year.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/CT/animate.arctic.0.html

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=09&fd=18&fy=2007&sm=09&sd=18&sy=2008

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/CLIMO/dfw/annual/d32data.html

[somethingfunny]

I just can't agree with your statement regarding last winter as "warm".

....As for the weather in Grayson County on Halloween; I have to say I can't really recall. (meaning it was probably unremarkably seasonable)

[CaptinCrunch]

I just can't agree with your statement regarding last winter as "warm".

....As for the weather in Grayson County on Halloween; I have to say I can't really recall. (meaning it was probably unremarkably seasonable)

OFFICAL STATION: DALLAS/FORT WORTH AIRPORT

YEAR: 2007/2008
LATITUDE: 32 54 N
LONGITUDE: 97 2 W

October 31, 2007.. H/81... L/54... AV/68... DPTR FM NORMAL: +7.0

December 07.. AV.. H/61.3... L/38.3.. DPTR FM NORMAL: +3.1 .. No snow
January 08.. AV.. H/57.4... L/36.4.. DPTR FM NORMAL: +2.8 .. Only a trace fell at the airport (1 day)
February 08.. AV.. H/67.3... L/40.7.. DPTR FM NORMAL: +4.6 .. No snow

These are the facts based on the monthly averages winter 07/08 was one of the warmest on record. You must also remember that the temp difference between Grayson Co and D/FW Airport can be as much as 6 to 8 degrees at times.

Even if you used the monthly avgerages from the Denton Airport you still would have Dec-Feb avg about normal, just not as much as it was at D/FW airport (I checked). As for what I call a cold winter? well that would be the Winters of 77/78 and 78/79, the 2 coldest winters on record for NTX (since 1899) and 2 of the harshes winters recorded for the nation.

[CaptinCrunch]

WARM DAYS NEAR 90 DEG F...WITH PLEASANT NIGHTS UPPER 50S/60S IN THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. EXTENDED DRY PERIODS LIKE THIS ARE NORMAL FOR
NORTH TX HEADING INTO EARLY FALL...WHICH BEGINS TOMORROW/MONDAY.

[cheezyWXguy]

Well it may be warm now, but Im getting the hunch that it wont last long. Areas of fog around this morning near the red river, more than normal acorns on the ground, and those huge drifting spiderwebs everyone talks about alluding to the cold. Theyre all superstitious but I can say Ive gone wrong too many times looking to those for some signs. Of course its way too early tell but I cant wait. We need a big one this winter.

[CaptinCrunch]

I was reading in the Canadian weather fourms that they are forecasting a pretty cold winter across much of the Country, below normal temps and higher than normal snowfall across much of central and eastern Canada as well as southern Canada.

I was looking as Comparisons of this years arctic ice pack to last years ice pack (thru Sept 21), and there has been less ice melt over the summer than there was last year and there is more snow across parts of Asia and around Hudson Lake than this time last year.

Wind patterens have also been more faviorable for a colder season, as the northern jet stream has stayed futher south over Northern America/Southern Canada then where it was located last year way up into northern canada.

[CaptinCrunch]

Here a post from the Farmers Almanac to get a little insight on the coming Winter and Spring Seasons.

I take NO credit in this writing, all and full credit goes to the auther.

***THEO'S ASTOMETEOROLOGICAL
SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR FALL 2008 & WINTER 2008/2009***

UPDATED: SEPTEMBER 1, 2008

Welcome back to all those returning from summer vacation!

{NOTES: This seasonal outlook precedes my WINTER/SPRING 2009 Long-Range Climate & Weather forecast to be published in September. This outlook is written to give the general public time to prepare for what I forecast will be an early fall, and a early winter. Autumn, in my estimation, has already started this month of August, and will end in early November, giving way to a winter that will be five (5) weeks ahead of schedule for North America.

According to my astrometeorological calculations on climate conditions, the fall season will arrive earlier than normal and will lead to an earlier than expected, and long winter season.

This winter will last from mid-November 2008 into May 2009 due to the cooler & wetter climate of Spring of 2009, which will make this coming winter season seem longer than normal. The Central-to-Southern Midwest and Southeastern states will receive a very healthy dose of winter weather this season.

This is a very active & dangerous winter season with something for everyone... heavy snow accumulations, gusty, raging winds with blowing snow and causing blizzard-like conditions, freezing rains, ice events, and colder-than-normal temperatures, etc. Take no chances this particular winter across the country. It will be colder than normal for the Northwestern U.S. this winter ~ a record winter for the Pacific northwest.

This will be a more "classic" winter season, not only for parts of South & Midwest, but also for the Pacific Northwest, Central & Southern Rockies, the Southern Plains, including the state of Nebraska, the southern Mid-West, the South, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic regions. Above-normal snowfall, and ice events due to heavy precipitation and colder-than-normal temperatures, along with gusty winds will make for blizzard warnings in those regions.

Winter, in my astrometeorological calculations, will begin on Saturday, November 13, 2008 and will extend to April 25, 2009. The biggest stories of the winter will be Air temperatures, and precipitation of driving rains, heavy snows, freezing rains & ice events ~ making this one of the most memorable classic winters for some time in North America ~ again, especially for southern regions of the country.

Spring 2009 will be late, making the months of March, April and May 2009, wet and cooler than is normal for spring. From what I can determine from my calculations, delayed, cold, cloudy, with the climate still in the throes of winter, which does not want to seem to end until late April 2009. Warmer weather and clearer spring-like skies will not become more frequent until early June 2009.

I am forecasting an extended winter for this reason, as I see spring 2009 arriving later than usual, with a delay in climate of spring weather until early June for many regions of North America.

In addition, because of the heavier than normal snows over winter, next spring will see threats of floods in parts of the South, Southeastern, and Mid-Atlantic states. The Southeast, which only less than two years ago, suffered from extreme drought, has seen dry conditions abate with increased precipitation in 2008; however, spring 2009 brings threats of regional flooding in the very regions that suffered from drought.

The Pacific Northwest will be much colder than normal this winter, with above average snowfall, along with ice events that will make roads very dangerous. Expect a colder than normal fall season to precede a earlier than normal winter. Due to heavier than normal snowfalls in the Pacific Northwest this winter, many regions will experience common flooding in the northwest in the months of March and April. The slightly drier conditions will end in the northwest with the heavier than normal snowfalls during snowmelt season in spring 2009.

AUTUMN 2008's GENERAL CLIMATE
An early fall season

As August 2008 winds down, some of you may have noticed that the month of August hasn't been as hot and humid for much of the country, expect those on the west coast and the Pacific Northwest, which have been experiencing warmer-than-usual hot and steamy weather.

Those residing in the Midwest, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and New England should have been aware of the cooler than normal August temperatures, especially those residing along the Canadian border, such as those in upstate New York, and those living near mountainous and valley regions.

Fall, for a majority of the country (excepting parts of the far west & PNW) will first be clear and chily, then wetter, and cold into late October, with winter's arrival by November 13th, about 18 days ahead of meteorological winter (Dec. 1) and a full five (5) weeks ahead of the Winter Solstice (Dec. 22.)

My long-range weather forecast will include my assessment of winter's early arrival by mid-November, with some snows in October along the northern regions of North America, and with colder-than-normal temperatures for two-thirds of the country during the months of Sep. through November. This means a early fall season.

Those in mountain and valley regions should already see signs of the earlier onset of fall before mid-September's autumn equinox. Keen city dwellers in the East, and New England who are attuned to the signs in nature will see trees shedding leaves. The color of the leaves assist in shedding (no pun intended) the coming season of fall, and winter. More bright yellow colors of fallen leaves in August indicate a wet autumn with cooler-than-normal temperatures.

We are seeing lowered daytime temperatures in the East, Southeast, and Midwest range between 82-70 degrees with night-time temperatures in the 50s & 60s. Areas close to mountains and valleys have seen night temps in the mid-40s in late July and early August.

Areas as far north as Buffalo, N.Y. for example have had a wet summer with cooler-than-normal temperatures, and it has been a wetter than normal summer for the midwestern and parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. Farmers have been reporting wet hay fields because there has not been enough hot weather to dry the hay fields out.

This fall season will be clear, crisp and cooler-than-normal for many regions of North America. Fall conditions are arriving earlier than usual, and by second week of September it will be obvious to most that autumn is already here.

By the third week, everyone will be commenting on the cooler than normal temperatures and the spread of dry leaves everywhere. By that time, the fall equinox (Sept. 22) when the Sun enters tropical Libra, autumn will have already been here for the northern hemisphere.

The rainy season kicks off early too (in mid-September) and continues in early-to-mid October for some regions, and in early November in other regions. A very wet fall season after mid-September is ahead generally.

Early snows at higher elevations arrive the week of Sept. 22-29 October, with high wind conditions for New England, the Great Lakes, and all regions along the 49th Parallel bordering Canada.

AUTUMN 2008's General Climate Conditions

- Colder than normal Fall temperatures (mid-Aug. thru Sept.)
- Clear, sunny skies, dry, brisk, Cool Temps (first half of Sept.)
- Rainy Season starts earlier than normal (mid-Sept. thru Nov. 17)
- Colder night-time lows w/early frosts (Sept. 24 - Oct.19)
- First 19 days of October, very wet w/ cold, heavy rains
- Gusty Winds w/ driving rains from Oct. 19 thru Nov. 15
- Very cold, dry gusty winter winds Nov. 15 thru Dec. 12

PREVIEW OF WINTER'S EARLY ARRIVAL
Winter Conditions Begin in November 2008
December 2008 feels very much like mid-winter

Winter 2008-09, according to my assessment will be colder, and wetter than normal with increased snow and ice events for the Southern Plains, Rocky Mountains, into the Nebraska Platte country, the Central and Southern Rockies, including the Texas panhandle, the Southern U.S., Central & Southern Midwest, into the Southeast & Mid-Atlantic states.

Winter is earlier than usual, with much colder temperatures than is normal for November and December. I've been forecasting an earlier than normal winter this year in my comments since 2007.

Frost season will begin from Sept. 7 through to October 31, 2008. Farmer's and gardening enthusiasts should prepare earlier than normal for this frost season. After Sept. 15, expect to see signs of an earlier-than-normal rainy fall season for the Midwest, East, and Southeastern states. Colder temperatures in New England and the Great Lakes, with snow events at high elevations the week of Sept. 22-29.

This autumn season will also see the early signs of what will be be common this early winter: gusty cold winds & blizzards, and freezing rains. The air is very active this winter ~ and the winds will be a major problem along with the above-average winter precipitation.

Most residents east and south of the Rockies in the U.S., should beware of slick roads due to the heavy snows and freezing rains this winter. Be prepared for power outages by purchasing generators to run power in your homes and businesses.

December 2008 is a very stormy and active month. Winter will have already begun in early December with blowing snow at more southern declinations, winds, heavy precipitation, blizzard-like conditions; especially in the Southern Plains and Southern to Central Rockies, including northern Texas, Oklahoma, freezing rains, and ice events across the South and Southeastern U.S. The month of December will feel like mid-winter by the time of the Winter Solstice of Dec. 21.

Gusting winds throughout regions of the country pick up from October 19, 2008 and continue through December 27. There will be about ten (10) weeks of varying levels of gusting winds from mid-October to late December, making the colder-than-normal temperatures feel even colder throughout this period.

Arctic temperatures for two-thirds of the country (excepting parts of the far west & Pacific Northwest) will occur between November 26 through to January 4, 2009. These arctic temperatures begin to recede slowly in January until the effects of the Pacific jet warms things up in late January.

I do not expect a strong Pacific jet until after January 25, 2009. This means the month of February 2009 will see temperatures rise after the pullback to the north of arctic air. However, February 6-9 brings another eastern snowstorm to the Mid-Atlantic states, then afterwards, a continuing warming up of the atmosphere the rest of February, but with still more threats of ice events because of the increase moisture in the atmosphere threatens the Southern Plains states, and Southeastern U.S. in February

Expect a stonger-than-normal northern jet stream this winter bringing about northwestern winds anf Alberta clipper systems into the Great Lakes, and upstate New York and New England with these clipper storms riding this wave also into the states of Ohio and Pennsylvania and into the Mid-Atlantic region.

Precipitation from the Gulf will bring the return of the classic winter southern track of storms riding up towards the northeastern metro areas, affecting Virginia, Maryland, and Washington D.C., along the way, while also affecting the states of Delaware, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and New York.

December 5-12 shows snow and ice events for Southeastern & Central U.S., with colder than normal temperatures, heavy rains from the Gulf of Mexico combined with cold arctic air from Canada combining to prpduce snow and ice. Strong winds will make the storms damaging. The Central & Southern Rockies, and southern Plains into northern Texas will be affected, as well as states as Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Maryland, Virginia.

That early December 2008 winter event, for example, continues into the Mid-Atlantic region the week of Dec. 12-19, and will arrive by Friday, December 12, making for a messy weekend on the east coast and northeastern metropolitan areas with heavy snows in Philadelphia, New York, Washington D.C., and parts of the Southeast. Blizzard warnings due to the high winds will increase snow accumulations in the cities and suburbs. Roads will be treacherous the second and third weeks of December.

ASTROMET OUTLOOK

I expect about 2-1/2 snow storms a month from early December 2008 through to early March 2009 for the Rocky Mountains, the Southern Rockies, Central & Southern Plain states, as well as the South, Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic states. This will make Winter 2009 memorable after several years of a relatively warm winters; especially in parts of the Central Midwestern, Southern and Northeastern U.S.

CLIMATE CONDITIONS FOR WINTER 2008/2009

- Early onset of winter by Mid-November 2008
- Colder-than-normal temperatures
- Heavier than normal snowfalls - Pacific Northwest, Mid-Atlantic
- Gusty Winds, blowing snows, blizzard conditions - Plains states, Rocky Mountains, and into Nebraska and Iowa

- Strong Northwestern Winds
- Arctic Air (Dec. '08 to Jan. '09)
- Numerous Alberta Clippers from the Northwest
- Increased southern precipitation Mixing with Arctic Air
- Freezing Rains & ice storms - Pacific Northwest, Central Midwest(Dec. '08) & (March '09)

This winter will be colder-than-normal due to the lack of sunspot activity affecting the Earth's equator. Colder than normal winter temperatures (arctic air) are on tap this winter ahead with increased precipitation of freezing rains, snows and gusty winds mixing with the very cold air.

My outlook for the nation from the Continential Divide towards the entire two-thirds of the country is to prepare for a chilly early autumn and very cold winter season. Think and act about 4-5 weeks ahead of what one would normally do to prepare for fall and especially winter this year.

SPRING 2009 OUTLOOK

Next Spring is "muddled." That's the word I use because from all my calculations, spring is very slow to get up, and when it does, it is sluggish at best and takes it's time to get started.

February 2009's Pacific jet will warm the atmosphere over much the U.S., and during the latter half of the month of February, it will "appear" as if spring is on its way. However, it is not.

The first half of the days in February will be cloudy, and cold, while the second half of the days of February will see some clearing, warm ups, but still chilly. The appearance of the warming tempratures later in the days of February, and into the first 10 days of March 2009, will give many regions the "impression" that winter is coming to an end. Do not be misled, winter will still have another full month-and-a-half from March before it releases its grip on North America.

Spring-like weather will be seen in the Southern U.S. in early February. Do not be surprised to experience thunderstorms, lightning in mid-February & March. Heavy fog, and strange electrical disturbances appear in the southeastern climate (Mar. 5-16)There are strong potentials for tornados in February and the first 15 days of March 2009 throughout the South, Central Midwest, and Southeastern U.S.

By March 6, 2009, a six-week Venus retrograde (Mar. 6 to April 17) will delay the onset of proper sping climate conditions relative to Earth's position to the Sun-Venus configuration. Prior Venus retrogrades before spring equinoxes have shown wet winter conditions returning over the course of about six-weeks ~ the exact length of most Venus retrogrades.

The climate by the next spring equinox (March 20, 2009) is a cold and dreary day in many regions. Cloudy skies, below-normal temperatures ~ winter weather ~ will take place on what should be the first day of spring. Snow will fall in throughout the Colorado Rockies on the spring equinox, as well as in Nebraska, and the Southern Plains states, which will have had a very rough winter with heavy accumulations of snow, gusty winds and blizzards.

The first weekend of spring (Mar. 20-22) snow, freezing rains with thick ice develops in regions across the central & southern Midwestern states, and the western mountainous regions of Southern states, including West Virginia. Even residents in the Poconos of Pennsylvania will see snow this first day of spring. Winter will have returned during the spring equinox.

March & April 2009 sees increased precipitation spreading from the South to Central Midwestern states, to the Northeastern regions, including New England, with heavier-than-normal rains with the threat of a Nor'easter along the eastern U.S. from March 18-25. A large rain event develops in the South, and Southeast between April 17-25.

March & April 2009 are very wet and stormier months than is usual through the South, Central Midwest, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states. Heavy rains, gusty winds and flooding are on tap those two months.

The months of March and April 2009 show cooler-than-normal weather conditions. A stormy & unsettled winter-like climate persists. April 2009 is very windy, wet and cold, with winter-like days and chilly temperatures clearly showing spring is to be delayed yet another month, well into May 2009.

According to my calculations, Spring really does not fully bloom until the second week of June 2009.

SPRING 2009's GENERAL CLIMATE CONDITIONS

- Colder than normal temperatures, March, April, May
- Wetter than normal, heavy precipitation
- Gusty Winds (March/April 2009)
- Winter-like storms persist March & April w/ snow, freezing rains, electrical storms, freezing fogs, and ice storms.

- Flooding from heavy rains & melting snows, carefully monitor rivers, and streams in the Central Midwest, South, Southeast & Mid-Atlantic regions.

- May 2009 is cooler than normal, however, the spring season grabs firmer footing in that month. By the second week of June, spring will arrive, (June 7) late, and with the Summer equinox just two weeks away. Spring 2009 is shorter than normal.

A fuller, and more detailed astrometeorological forecast for the country will be published by early September for Winter/Spring 2009.

Theodore White, Astrolog.CSA
Classical Scientific Astrologer
Pro Astrometeorologist

[Extremeweatherguy]

Interesting ideas from the Almanac. Hopefully their prediction of an "Oklahoma blizzard" in early/mid December is correct. Also, I wouldn't mind a little chilly weather while I am in Florida for the holidays too. It would certainly make spending them down there a little more enjoyable.

[gboudx]

Just an observation, but I have noticed some Red Oaks along my route to/from work have start changing color. Some of the trees are half red/half green. This seems early to me. Also, I've noticed some Silver Maples in my neighborhood have started changing color and shedding leaves. I'll see if I can get a pic of it and post it one of these days.

[CaptinCrunch]

THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE NOW BECOMING IN LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER. THE
GFS HAS BEEN WANTING TO AMPLIFY A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE PLAINS WHICH SENDS A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTH TEXAS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SETTING UP THE RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS BLOCKING ANY FRONTS...BUT THE NEW 00Z RUN HAS COME INTO
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. NEW FORECAST REFLECTS COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR DAY 7 AND BEYOND. STILL APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SO
HAVE NOT ADDED ANY POPS TO THE FORECAST.

[gboudx]

Here's a snippet from the PM discussion.

PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED BY
EARLY MONDAY AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE ECMWF OFFERING SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AS
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 70S
AND LOWER 80S FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

I'm noticing more and more trees have started to turn color now. This is certainly different than last year when I didn't see any color until about early November.

[SWLASTORMTRACKER]

Here's a snippet from the PM discussion.

PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED BY
EARLY MONDAY AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE ECMWF OFFERING SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AS
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 70S
AND LOWER 80S FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

I'm noticing more and more trees have started to turn color now. This is certainly different than last year when I didn't see any color until about early November.

While the leaves aren't changing color yet here in SWLA the grass has definitely slowed down it's growth. Instead of having to cut every 4-5 days to keep up with it my mowing time has decreased to every 7-10 days. Definitely loving that!!

[somethingfunny]

Just an observation, but I have noticed some Red Oaks along my route to/from work have start changing color. Some of the trees are half red/half green. This seems early to me. Also, I've noticed some Silver Maples in my neighborhood have started changing color and shedding leaves. I'll see if I can get a pic of it and post it one of these days.

That's thanks to Ike and the front behind him. We shouldn't be having highs in the upper 70s until like.....November.

This weather today is absolutely beautiful but I'm expecting the burner to cook us into the mid-upper 90s one more time before we actually start getting cooler for good.

[gboudx]

Just an observation, but I have noticed some Red Oaks along my route to/from work have start changing color. Some of the trees are half red/half green. This seems early to me. Also, I've noticed some Silver Maples in my neighborhood have started changing color and shedding leaves. I'll see if I can get a pic of it and post it one of these days.

That's thanks to Ike and the front behind him. We shouldn't be having highs in the upper 70s until like.....November.

This weather today is absolutely beautiful but I'm expecting the burner to cook us into the mid-upper 90s one more time before we actually start getting cooler for good.

Well, I don't know about that. While Ike helped cool temps down in the 70's for about 3 days, we rebounded to the mid-upper 80's since then. I don't know anything about why or when trees decide to start changing leaves, but 2-3 days in the 70's doesn't seem like the "trigger point" to me. But this is an interesting subject so I may do some research when I get some time.

[somethingfunny]

Just an observation, but I have noticed some Red Oaks along my route to/from work have start changing color. Some of the trees are half red/half green. This seems early to me. Also, I've noticed some Silver Maples in my neighborhood have started changing color and shedding leaves. I'll see if I can get a pic of it and post it one of these days.

That's thanks to Ike and the front behind him. We shouldn't be having highs in the upper 70s until like.....November.

This weather today is absolutely beautiful but I'm expecting the burner to cook us into the mid-upper 90s one more time before we actually start getting cooler for good.

Well, I don't know about that. While Ike helped cool temps down in the 70's for about 3 days, we rebounded to the mid-upper 80's since then. I don't know anything about why or when trees decide to start changing leaves, but 2-3 days in the 70's doesn't seem like the "trigger point" to me. But this is an interesting subject so I may do some research when I get some time.

It might be a local problem for your trees.....I haven't noticed anything even close to a changing leaf yet in Grayson County.

[CaptinCrunch]

Here's are a few forecast maps from Weather Canada. The OND forecast for temps show a 60-70% chance of below normal temps, while the precip maps are split between 30-40% (normal precip) to 40-50% (below normal precip).

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html?img=s234pfe1t

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html?img=s234pfe1p


But the general consensus for winter as a whole is a much colder (below normal) temps with normal to above normal snow fall. I would start watching the temps up in Whitehorse and Yellowknife come late October, cuz if they start seeing those single digits and -temps then look out, the only place for that to go will be south.

[CaptinCrunch]

Just an observation, but I have noticed some Red Oaks along my route to/from work have start changing color. Some of the trees are half red/half green. This seems early to me. Also, I've noticed some Silver Maples in my neighborhood have started changing color and shedding leaves. I'll see if I can get a pic of it and post it one of these days.

That's thanks to Ike and the front behind him. We shouldn't be having highs in the upper 70s until like.....November.

This weather today is absolutely beautiful but I'm expecting the burner to cook us into the mid-upper 90s one more time before we actually start getting cooler for good.

Well, I don't know about that. While Ike helped cool temps down in the 70's for about 3 days, we rebounded to the mid-upper 80's since then. I don't know anything about why or when trees decide to start changing leaves, but 2-3 days in the 70's doesn't seem like the "trigger point" to me. But this is an interesting subject so I may do some research when I get some time.

Here you go buddy, this explains it all....lol

Why Leaves Change Color.

http://www.butler.edu/herbarium/fallcolor/leaveschange.htm

[gboudx]

It might be a local problem for your trees.....I haven't noticed anything even close to a changing leaf yet in Grayson County.

It's mostly the elm's that have started turning yellow. Which is earlier than last year for sure. Though like I've said, there's some red oaks and some silver maples I've noticed as well.

Thanks Captin for the info. :thumbsup:

[CaptinCrunch]

THE WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE INTERESTING STARTING THIS WEEKEND AS
THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUCKLES UNDER THE
PRESSURE OF A POWERFUL CYCLONE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN FRIDAY
MORNING AS A LEE TROUGH ORGANIZES OVER THE ROCKIES AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THE WINDS WITH PW VALUES GRADUALLY
INCREASING TO 1.50-1.75 INCHES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.

THE LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS A
STRONG UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THIS SYSTEM
SPINS AND GRADUALLY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH. AT THE SURFACE...A
DRY LINE/PACIFIC FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT NO
TRUE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CURRENTLY PREDICTED BY THE MODELS. THE
ECMWF DOES SHOW ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW ESSENTIALLY TAKING THE
PLACE OF THE FIRST ONE LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS LIKELY A SIGN A
SIGNIFICANT FALL FRONTAL PASSAGE IS IN OUR NEAR FUTURE.

[CaptinCrunch]

LOOKING FURTHER OUT...THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE TELECONNECTION PATTERN
FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD RESULTS IN BELOW ANOMALY HEIGHTS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH NORMAL TO ABOVE HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS MUCH OF CANADA WHERE THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX HAS
BEEN DISPLACED INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. THUS...THERE SHOULD BE NO
MAJOR TEMPERATURES EXTREMES OR EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION DURING THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. IF THIS PANS OUT...MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS WILL DRIFT
BACK INTO MINOR DROUGHT (D0 = ABNORMALLY DRY) WITH MODERATE TO
SEVERE DROUGHT (D1 AND D2 CLASS) EXPANDING FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ONE-HALF OF THE CWA.

UPDATED:

CPC OUTLOOKS FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF OCTOBER ARE TRENDING WETTER...
ATTEMPTING TO PULL NORTH TEXAS FROM ITS DRY SPELL WITH OCTOBER
CLIMATOLOGY. OCTOBER IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE SECOND WETTEST MONTH
OF THE YEAR FOR NORTH TEXAS...AND THE MODELS KNOW THIS. CONCUR
WITH PREVIOUS AFD THAT IF THE OCTOBER RAINS DO NOT COME...DROUGHT
CLASSIFICATION WILL RETURN/EXPAND.