Snow int. NE, then Plains, not a TC in Gulf?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ok, GFS has low a tad too far offshore, so precip and cold air don't quite match up, but this is a week away

Chance of coastal snow looks near nil, but a nasty Nor'Easter next weekend?



Edit thread title from "Snow int. NE, then Plains, with TC in Gulf?" to Snow int. NE, then Plains, not a TC in Gulf?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian sort of supports it, and perhaps if it didn't have a monster tropical cyclone coming out of the Caribbean and headed for Canada, might have a deeper Nor'Easter on the East Coast.



ETA: I don't have a photobucket, so these hot links will change in 12 to 18 hours...

[Ed Mahmoud]

New 12Z GFS ( see PSU e-Wall ) says cold air arrives too late/low moves offshore too quickly, for any winter excitement inland Northeast, but I know GFS is sometimes too far offshore with Nor'Easters, so I am not giving up yet.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Still not quite getting the cold air and precip together, but it'll be a cold rain near the coast with raw Northeast winds. And the model has time to change a little more.




But even if this doesn't work out, it looks like it lays the groundwork for something a few days later that may snow in the interior Northeast...

[Ed Mahmoud]

0Z Canadian would have snow in BOS, except an onshore wind off 5ºC + ocean water would change it to rain inside of 128...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Update:

Euro suggests snow close to the coast in New England on Tuesday...

[Ed Mahmoud]

NWS BOX (Boston/Taunton)

MED RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL AMPLIFY
AND EVOLVE INTO CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES INTO NEW ENG TUE/TUE NIGHT
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW. ECMWF/UKMET SHOW MORE
AMPLIFICATION AND COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE COAST WHICH
WOULD BRING HEAVIER PRECIP TO EASTERN NEW ENG TUE NIGHT POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO WED. GFS IS FURTHER NORTH WITH SFC LOW AND INDICATES
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT ON TUE. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
WE JUST HAVE CHC POPS FOR TUE AND SLIGHT CHC TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR
TUE NIGHT IF THERE IS PRECIP.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Moisture may be gone before cold air arrives coast, but at least the ski resorts could see some action per the 12Z GFS

Canadian similar

The next storm after looks like a doozy, and both Canadian and GFS suggest a tropical system in the Gulf headed for Florida as that next storm brings snow into the Ozarks.

[Ed Mahmoud]

OK, the cold air and storm won't match up, but it'll be a mondo storm just offshore. Already 30 knots offshore Cape Cod.

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/displaySat.php?region=BWI&isingle=mult_big&itype=ir

And the current GFS looks really close as far as frozen precip to near BOS Wednesday early morning.

[RL3AO]

Way out there in lala land, but the GFS has hinted at a pretty strong cold snap in the eastern half of the nation around October 28 to 30.

[JonathanBelles]

I hope that comes true. The last few halloweens have been too warm.

[somethingfunny]

This will be my first winter paying attention to the models. All I can say right now is, wow that is complete crazytalk! Snowing in Boston with a monstrous TC just offshore....and I thought the GFDL only pulled crazy things out of thin tropical air!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Accumulating snow for ALB tomorrow per 18Z WRF

[Ed Mahmoud]

Six more weeks and this could be Texas.


But for now, it is upstate New York, maybe with a touch of lake enhancement...



Check out TOP Thursday early morning...

[Ed Mahmoud]

NWS ALY (ALB)

FOR TEMPS...DESPITE THE WIDE DISPARITY EARLY THIS MORNING...TEMPS
SHOULD STRATIFY RATHER QUICKLY BY MID MORNING...AS SW WINDS DEVELOP
AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT...ENHANCING MIXING AND DOWNSLOPING ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION. THUS...EXPECT MAXES TO RANGE FROM
55-60 ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WITH LOWER 50S FURTHER N WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...INCLUDING THE
CAPITAL REGION. FURTHER N/W...WHERE CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
MOST PERSISTENT...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE MUCH COOLER...MAINLY HOLDING
BETWEEN 45-50. TEMPS SHOULD THEN START TO FALL OFF LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ONCE COLD AIR ADVECTION INTENSIFIES...
ESP ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE TEMPS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S BY OR JUST AFTER SUNSET.
IN THESE AREAS...PARTICULARLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT...SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN AFTER
SUNSET...WITH PERHAPS A COATING POSSIBLE ON COLDER SURFACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PASSES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF REGION BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS PLACES AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION WITHIN DEFORMATION AREA. THUS...A PERIOD OF
STEADIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR
AREAS N OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...AND ESP INTO SOUTHERN VT. AS COLDER
AIR SEEPS SE...EXPECT WET SNOW TO MIX IN ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW EXPECTED TOWARD OR JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE
FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THE SEASON FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN
THE DACKS...SUCH AS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COS...AS WELL AS
IN EASTERN BENNINGTON CO AND WESTERN WINDHAM CO IN SOUTHERN VT. IN
THESE REGIONS...ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FT
IN SOUTHERN VT. FOR VALLEY AREAS...MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME WET SNOW COULD EVEN MIX IN HERE TOWARD
DAYBREAK...ESP N OF THE MOHAWK RIVER. LITTLE OR NO ACCUM IS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER

[Ed Mahmoud]

Snow next Monday night into Northern suburbs NYC????

[Ed Mahmoud]

See 91L thread for where some of this is coming from.

Snip of AFD NWS BOX

THE ECMWF AND GFS SEEM IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS ORDER OF
EVENTS WITH THE GLOBAL SIMILAR BUT A TAD FASTER. WE WILL STAY
CLOSER TO THE GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. THIS BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS
DURING SATURDAY WITH PRECIP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TIMING
ON FROPA CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS FIVE
DAYS IN THE FUTURE SO LOOK FOR THE TIMING TO SHIFT AROUND THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES. MAYBE NOT A TORRENTIAL RAIN...BUT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE A SOAKER.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE WINDS. THE GFS FORECASTS A 75 KNOT WIND
AT 950 MB...AND TWO RUNS OF THE EC HAVE HAD 65 KNOTS AT 925 MB. A
LOW LEVEL JET AT THIS STRENGTH POINTS TO A POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY
OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PERHAPS INTO PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Current Weather Conditions:
GREATER BUFFALO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT , NY, United States
(KBUF) 42-56N 078-44W 225M

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conditions at Oct 21, 2008 - 09:54 PM EDTOct 21, 2008 - 08:54 PM CDTOct 21, 2008 - 07:54 PM MDTOct 21, 2008 - 06:54 PM PDTOct 21, 2008 - 05:54 PM ADTOct 21, 2008 - 04:54 PM HDT
2008.10.22 0154 UTC
Wind from the NW (320 degrees) at 8 MPH (7 KT)
Visibility 4 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Light snow
Mist
Precipitation last hour 0.02 inches
Temperature 34.0 F (1.1 C)
Windchill 26 F (-3 C)
Dew Point 32.0 F (0.0 C)
Relative Humidity 92%
Pressure (altimeter) 30.24 in. Hg (1024 hPa)
ob KBUF 220154Z 32007KT 4SM -SN BR BKN004 OVC009 01/00 A3024 RMK AO2 SLP247 P0002 T00110000

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Ed Mahmoud]

Posted: Tue Oct 21, 2008 4:44 pm Snow next Monday night into Northern suburbs NYC????

Not bad, and what was 91L did become part of the 988 mb New York/New England/Philadelphia Phillies Autumn storm, even though it never was a TC...