Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5601 Postby **BigB0882** » Sat Feb 28, 2015 6:12 pm

I was waiting for Mike and his positive vibes. :lol:

I look at it this way, this is most surely our last set of models to even watch. I will enjoy waiting and watching to see if this continues. After this it is a long time until hurricane season, the only other time I care to model watch.

Kennethb · #5602 Postby **Kennethb** » Sat Feb 28, 2015 6:26 pm

If we had not had an ice storm last March 4, Mardi Gras Day, I would not even consider this. Last year proved ice storms in March can happen here in Baton Rouge. The GFS has at least been consistent. BTW the March 4 ice storm last year was the biggest ice storm I have seen in Baton Rouge.

windnrain · #5603 Postby **windnrain** » Sat Feb 28, 2015 6:29 pm

I'm hopeful. It doesn't look like it would stick though - the temperatures will barely be at freezing and the ground will have had several 65+ days before it falls.

CYCLONE MIKE · #5604 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Sat Feb 28, 2015 6:37 pm

BigB0882 wrote:I was waiting for Mike and his positive vibes.

I look at it this way, this is most surely our last set of models to even watch. I will enjoy waiting and watching to see if this continues. After this it is a long time until hurricane season, the only other time I care to model watch.

The gfs and cmc have been horrible for us all winter. So why should we believe, the what 10th winter storm, will actually and finally happen and the models this once will be correct.

timmeister · #5605 Postby **timmeister** » Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:12 am

The NWS in Jackson, MS has a winter weather event in the forecast this morning, nothing but rain for Hattiesburg. The winter precip line looks to be just south of I-20.

#5606 Postby **BigB0882** » Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:58 am

Looks like the 00z GFS took away any winter precip for Baton Rouge. Temps went up quite a bit and precip went down after a trend of going up. I can't believe the GFS kept it around for so many runs, to be honest.

windnrain · #5607 Postby **windnrain** » Sun Mar 01, 2015 12:43 pm

Aaaaand its gone. That was our last chance for any frozen precip.

Time to look ahead to severe weather season.

#5608 Postby **BigB0882** » Sun Mar 01, 2015 4:36 pm

According to the 12z GFS Baton Rouge is back in it but just BARELY. This could come down to being within 1 degree of a big ice storm. The precip totals went WAY up. We get half an inch with temps around 35. Make this a few degrees colder and everything changes. Going to keep watching.

#5609 Postby **BigB0882** » Sun Mar 01, 2015 6:50 pm

The 18z has backed off on precip, again, but the temps look better. Showing a little over a tenth of QPF for freezing rain and/or sleet.

I just want enough to cancel schools. Teacher, here. :lol:

windnrain · #5610 Postby **windnrain** » Sun Mar 01, 2015 6:58 pm

Well I don't know about snow, but we got a hell of a thunderstorm on the way here in Baton Rouge don't we?

What do you do for a living anyway? I cought you a lot in last years winter threads.

#5611 Postby **BigB0882** » Sun Mar 01, 2015 7:10 pm

windnrain wrote:Well I don't know about snow, but we got a hell of a thunderstorm on the way here in Baton Rouge don't we?

What do you do for a living anyway? I cought you a lot in last years winter threads.

I am a teacher in West Baton Rouge Parish. I am in Special Education - high school.

#5612 Postby **BigB0882** » Mon Mar 02, 2015 1:17 am

Looks like the 00z GFS took it away again (as I expected) but it is very close to still being an event. We are talking a difference of 2-3 degrees being the decider between cold rain and ice/sleet. The 00z GFS did trend a little wetter so that is good. Let's see if this is just the beginning of a trend where temps keep coming in warmer with each run or just another blip.

TideJoe · #5613 Postby **TideJoe** » Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:54 am

GFS hanging on to winter precip all the way into south MS. The Jackson office isn't biting on it and is leaning toward the Euro and Ukmet.

#5614 Postby **BigB0882** » Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:22 am

I am at work so I don't have my bookmarks. Could you post a link, TideJoe?

TideJoe · #5615 Postby **TideJoe** » Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:27 am

BigB0882 wrote:I am at work so I don't have my bookmarks. Could you post a link, TideJoe?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=100

#5616 Postby **BigB0882** » Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:00 am

Thank you. That is about as close as we can get, cuts off right at Baton Rouge. Without the Euro on board, I doubt the NWS will call a winter weather advisory or even mention it much.

TideJoe · #5617 Postby **TideJoe** » Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:10 am

12z GFS staying firm, maybe a little wetter.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0

#5618 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:32 am

It is going to be close but I would not be surprised if it actually does pan out for the deep south this time around.

TideJoe · #5619 Postby **TideJoe** » Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:36 am

Stormcenter wrote:It is going to be close but I would not be surprised if it actually does pan out for the deep south this time around.

I hope it does. The couple times we've had a close call we just ended up with tons of rain at 34 F. It'd be nice to get some kind of winter weather this season/year.

#5620 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:55 am

I'm afraid it looks like more cold rain with possibly a few sleet pellets for SE TX through south Louisiana on Thursday. Temperatures should be above freezing during the precipitation.

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