Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[timmeister]

29° and frosty here in the 'Burg this morning.

[hurricanehunter69]

Wow...wouldn't this be nice...? Afterall, it is a el nino winter...? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... M&ps=model

[Hammy]

I've put money down at this point that the Winder-Athens are in Georgia will be snow-free this winter. The pattern seems to look like it's ready to shift to the south and east with the snow, but as with the hurricanes during summer it gets to a certain point and then pushes it back several days.

Even the stronger cold weather looks like it'll simply stay in the Midwest now.

[SeGaBob]

I hate to say it but I think the "big arctic outbreak" is more of a big letdown looking at the models lately. (unless anyone believes the Canadian...)



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[timmeister]

The 06Z GFS is showing a big winter storm in the south, if only it were right. If this did happen it would rival the March 1993 Super Storm.

[hurricanehunter69]

Okay. In regards to praying for a single flake....The 6z GFS is the best model run I've ever seen! http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

[timmeister]

Okay. In regards to praying for a single flake....The 6z GFS is the best model run I've ever seen! http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

Yep, that's a lot of snow in the deep south!

[Jag95]

[Jag95]

I've put money down at this point that the Winder-Athens are in Georgia will be snow-free this winter. The pattern seems to look like it's ready to shift to the south and east with the snow, but as with the hurricanes during summer it gets to a certain point and then pushes it back several days.

Even the stronger cold weather looks like it'll simply stay in the Midwest now.

I think we'll eventually see one of these pan out this winter. It's like the refrigerator door is ajar, it just needs a little 1050mb to push it open.

[hurricanehunter69]

Okay...Lucy is at it again! Well...two years ago, we knocked at the door! last year we banged on the door! And, this year we are gonna kick the damn thing in!!! Latest GFS.... http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

[SeGaBob]

Yeah that is certainly interesting... watch it get dropped soon.

[Jag95]

It's interesting that the GFS now shows snow across the same area that day. Guess we'll see. I'm sure it'll change some though.

[gatorcane]

The ECMWF and CMC are really bringing the cold way down to the Deep South and into Florida around Jan 17th through Jan 18th timeframe (yikes).


The ECMWF:

[timmeister]

Let's hope the models hold this pattern until the end of this week, then I'll get excited.

[BigB0882]

I love that run of the GFS. I do wish the Low would form a little farther south, would bring a bit more snow perhaps but it really is such a thin line, too far south we may get longer duration of snow but lighter amounts, too far north we get the heaviest precip but very little snow on the back end. I wish we could get a robust low that gave us heavy snow accumulations for 4-6 hours. I have always wondered what that would take down here in south Louisiana. I know it CAN happen but boy it must be hard to thread that needle.

I do like 2 things.
1. This is in under 10 days. Not by much but finally something inside the 10 day time frame.
2. This is more in line with the Euro and CMC temp wise. Not sure if they are showing the same storm system but I would like to see some agreement on the cold.

[Hammy]

So in addition to the GFS and yesterday's Euro post, the long-range CFS model from a few nights ago was indicating something very similar to the GFS/Euro solution, so we have three models on board now. GEM seems to be the last holdout although last year it didn't do too well picking up snow until a few days before.

edit: None of the models show snow now. Looks like the hurricane season plan of ignoring the models beyond 72 hours would be a good idea with the winter storms as well.

[gatorcane]

The EURO is putting the Eastern half of the country down into the Gulf coast and Florida into a deep freeze around 1 week from now.

[BigB0882]

That is very cold but it is 850 temps. I assume surface would follow? I see a Low pressure system sitting down in Mexico. Any chance that will head into the Gulf and give the southern states some winter fun?

[northjaxpro]

That is very cold but it is 850 temps. I assume surface would follow? I see a Low pressure system sitting down in Mexico. Any chance that will head into the Gulf and give the southern states some winter fun?

If we can get phasing of the polar and subtropical jets in the next 10 dayd or so, the potential of a winter storm to intensify along the Gulf and portions of the Deep South would framitcally incresse. The GFS in the early morning runs are indeed hinting at such a possibility.

[SeGaBob]

I'd like for that to happen but it seems the models are all backing away from any wintry potential, or at least pushing it way out it in time, which means it won't happen this time around.


(Just my opinion and not a forecast)