Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[northjaxpro]

Oh yes, I am inclined to believe that Old Man Winter will be making a return potentially in a big way by the end of February. Long range models are showing the potential of blocking near Alaska. That can lead to a pattern again of bringing much colder air back into the CONUS Lower 48, especially east of the Rockies. As pointed out above, along with a potentially colder pattern returning, we may see the southern stream jet becoming active again with storm systems developing out of the GOM, a pattern we have grown too accustomed to this winter across the Deep South.

Also, the CPC is forecasting in their temperature outlook going out 8-14 days from now of below normal across much of the Eastern 2/3 of the CONUS, with much below shown across the Ohio Valley and Upper MS Valley regions. So, this is definitely something to watch with the models as time progresses, especially as we get into next week. The way this winter season has been to this point, things may get interesting again for the Deep South. Stay tuned!!

[SeGaBob]

A snippet out of the Old Farmers Almanac for the Savannah area (which is close enough)...don't know how accurate it is but some people claim that it is fairly accurate. We'll see in due time though.

Feb 15-20: Rain, then sunny, cold;
Feb 21-26: Rain to snow, then sunny, cold;

[SeGaBob]

Had a line of severe thunderstorms move through the area about 10 am...it dropped dropped a inch of rain. No damage as far as i know.

Also is there anything new regarding winter weather in the South next week or even thereafter?

[SeGaBob]

Probably nothing will come of this but there is a 30% chance of freezing drizzle Tomorrow night into Tuesday morning for my area. Temperatures will be around 75 for the high tomorrow... which is why I don't think it will do much. It will be around a 43 degree drop between highs and lows tomorrow if the NWS is right.

[Tstormwatcher]

Freezing drizzle going on right now in New Bern, NC. The Neuse River are closed due to multiple accidents. 29 degrees here.

[MississippiWx]

Freezing rain here in Hattiesburg again. I've lost count of winter weather events this year. Unreal. Temps refuse to rise and it looks like yet another day where the temp struggles to get above freezing here in South MS!

[northjaxpro]

If you believe the EURO, it shows that another major winter storm may impact the Northeast U.S. in 120 hours, with a significant cooldown across the Eastern U.S. behind the storm system.

[Tstormwatcher]

Looks like winter is not over just yet. Will wait and see if we get a snowflakes across the area Tuesday into Wednesday. Significant cool down in store no matter what.

[SeGaBob]

Snow flurries have been reported just north of the Atlanta area for the past several hours...

[vbhoutex]

Snow flurries have been reported just north of the Atlanta area for the past several hours...

I can confirm that it was happening. We have close friends in Cummings and they were complaining about it snowing .

[Stormcenter]

Is it still Feb.?!?!?!??!? This is just crazy weather.

[northjaxpro]

Is it still Feb.?!?!?!??!? This is just crazy weather.

Yeah, freeze watches and warnings have been posted for North and Central Georgia, Upstate and Midlands of South Carolina and throughout much of North Carolina. Huge, unseasonably cold High Pressure will build across much of the Eastern US for much of this week. Expecting lows in the lower 40s with some upper 30s in portions of North Floridaon Wednesday morning. Rather impressive cool spell coming in the week of Easter.

[SeGaBob]

I don't think it's too early to look ahead...







I'm reasonably sure this map will be changed some as we get closer but it looks good to me for now.

[TheStormExpert]

Yawn! So how many more days till December 1st?

[Riptide]

Why would you want that, Winter in Florida is boring as all get out....lol. I know because I lived there for 9 years. It's also very dry during that time of the year.

[cycloneye]

There is a Winter Forum where you can talk about it all you want,thanks.

[TheStormExpert]

Why would you want that, Winter in Florida is boring as all get out....lol. I know because I lived there for 9 years. It's also very dry during that time of the year.

Never said I wanted winter. Just want this dreadfully dull and boring season to end.

Personally I'm not even close to being ready for winter, feels like summer just started.

[cycloneye]

Moved some posts from the Global Models discussion thread to here as of course they were off-topic there.

[SeGaBob]

First taste of winter...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1002 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 20

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A COLD CANADIAN HIGH DROPPING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
GFS THOUGH BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL
BE WITH US FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SATURDAY LOOKS COOL AND BREEZY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S. SUNDAY MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO HOLD MORE OF
A FROST THREAT SINCE THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DIMINISHING AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL RELAX AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD. INLAND LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.
THE EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH A WARM ADVECTION REGIME RESUMING. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
BE BACK IN THE 70S BY TUESDAY.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, the EURO has been advertising a very significant cold spell for the Eastern CONUS for the last several days. It appears that several areas across the Deep South may see the first freeze of the season by Sunday if the forecast by EURO is correct.