Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[hurricanehunter69]

Check this out at 360 hours.....? http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

[SeGaBob]

I'd really love for that to happen but it's likely that it will change some...

0z is running.

[northjaxpro]

Now, I know the models have been hinting at a potential pattern chamge to a return to much colder temps by the end of December, but this is really extreme LOL.. Showing a 7 inch snowfall bullseye right over New Orleans and 3 to S inches across North Florida into GA. Now that would be really something if this came to fruition, but this is over two weeks out and will be many changes to this of course.

However, if the southern branch of the jet stream can become active and ride over an arctic airmass, a scenario like this would not be very far-fetched, especially now with an El Nino becoming established.

[TheStormExpert]

And just like that the 0z GFS drop the extreme Arctic Outbreak and SE U.S. snow.

[BigB0882]

And just like that the 0z GFS drop the extreme Arctic Outbreak and SE U.S. snow.

Well, of course. I think we all know not to take a 300+ hour forecast verbatim. Hopefully it was a huge hint of things to come for the overall pattern. Maybe that arctic air will show back up in future runs. We need the cold first, then just need some luck with timing of a Low! But first, we must have the cold.

[asd123]

And just like that the 0z GFS drop the extreme Arctic Outbreak and SE U.S. snow.

Well, of course. I think we all know not to take a 300+ hour forecast verbatim. Hopefully it was a huge hint of things to come for the overall pattern. Maybe that arctic air will show back up in future runs. We need the cold first, then just need some luck with timing of a Low! But first, we must have the cold.

Yeah I know but it was very fun and entertaining to drool and fantasize over that run.

[hurricanehunter69]

OZ run at 348 hours....? http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

[hurricanehunter69]

The Climate Prediction Center is still holding tough with below average temps for the south(in the 3 month outlook) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.php

[hurricanehunter69]

The 12Z GFS is back on the deep south snow event, After taking it away for six runs.....? Although it ofcourse pushed it back....? http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

[SeGaBob]

18z still has it but to a much lesser extent...

18Z GFS: (288 hours)

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121518/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_40.png


18Z GFS: (300 hours)

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121518/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_41.png


It's still too far away to take seriously unfortunately.

[BigB0882]

I think the 18z GFS is showing a different storm system entirely. It is 3 days faster, or so. I guess that far out it could be seeing the same general system just moving in that much more quickly but what I take from this is the GFS is seeing cold and stormy.

[northjaxpro]

Or at least the southern branch of the jet stream will become more active as well* which could allow moisture to undercut an arctic air mass. Still 10-14 days out with what GFS is showing, so anticipate many more changes to this.

[SeGaBob]

I think the 18z GFS is showing a different storm system entirely. It is 3 days faster, or so. I guess that far out it could be seeing the same general system just moving in that much more quickly but what I take from this is the GFS is seeing cold and stormy.

I believe that's the same system (it did have it on December 29 but is now the 27th)

There was also a New Years Eve snow on the 12z GFS at 372 and 384 hours (a new storm) but 18z has it slowed down past that time range I guess. I should have mentioned that in my other post to avoid confusion.


That's too far out for it to try to guess conditions though. I'm pretty sure most of us wish they could be trusted that far out. (when they show winter weather anyway )


Most of the 0z run is out now, but the site is messing up for me at the moment.

[SeGaBob]

This is as close as any winter weather gets for a while... unless you want to go way out there at 288 hours with the GFS.

12Z GFS (162 hours)

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121712/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_27.png

12Z GFS (288 hours)

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121712/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_40.png

12Z Parallel GFS (174 hours)

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121712/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_29.png

This will change some though.

[hurricanehunter69]

Hopefully this will trend farther south as the event approaches...? Nevertheless, our chances appear to be improving significantly as we head into Jan. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

[northjaxpro]

Well, we are now within 10 days of a potential big cold spell for much of the CONUS. The 12Z EURO 240 hour run is showing a potential classic setup of arctic air pouring down into the counrty right at the start of 2015. Also, the EURO is strongly hinting at the potential of the NAO going negative as well. Impressive blocking ridge over Greenland is being indicated in the run, a big element needed for bringing down and locking in arctic air, especially across the Eastern CONUS. The -AO will hold in place, and +PNA/-EPO looks to remain locked in as well, based on the prominent ridge off the U.S. West coast north all the way into Alaska.

The details will be ironed out in the coming days with regards to the future model runs with the magnitude and depth of the arctic airmass, but no question the start of 2015 is looking more and more interesting as time progresses.

[TheStormExpert]

Well, we are now within 10 days of a potential big cold spell for much of the CONUS. The 12Z EURO 240 hour run is showing a potential classic setup of arctic air pouring down into the counrty right at the start of 2015. Also, the EURO is strongly hinting at the potential of the NAO going negative as well. Impressive blocking ridge over Greenland is being indicated in the run, a big element needed for bringing down and locking in arctic air, especially across the Eastern CONUS. The -AO will hold in place, and +PNA/-EPO looks to remain locked in as well, based on the prominent ridge off the U.S. West coast north all the way into Alaska.

The details will be ironed out in the coming days with regards to the future model runs with the magnitude and depth of the arctic airmass, but no question the start of 2015 is looking more and more interesting as time progresses.

http://i.imgur.com/6gK4sUc.png

Compared to the November arctic outbreak will this one penetrate further south into Florida?

[gatorcane]

and assuming this arctic outbreak does unfold, the GFS 384 hour runs from earlier this week starting picking up on this pattern change, not bad. It may have done poorly in the tropics this past year but still deserves respect for mid-latitude-related forecasts.

[SeGaBob]

Has NOAA fixed the data outage? I noticed the GFS is completing it's runs now.

[northjaxpro]

The 6Z GFS run extending out to 6Z on New Year's morning. Wow! Look at the frigid temps shown ringing in 2015 should it verify at that time! This run shows single digits all the way south into Northern AL and North GA and teens all across the rest of the Deep South. Low to mid 20s are shown across North Florida.