Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[SeGaBob]

Thought I'd post this...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
830 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

GAZ087-088-099-100-SCZ040-042>044-011500-
JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-
DORCHESTER-
830 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

...A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SLEET POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM IS AFFECTING SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS MORNING. AS RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH
OUT OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS AND TEMPERATURES FALL...RAIN
MAY OCCASIONALLY MIX WITH SLEET AT TIMES THROUGH LATE MORNING.
ALTHOUGH NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...ROADWAYS
WILL BE WET AND MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE EXTRA CAUTION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU OBSERVE SLEET OR OTHER WINTER WEATHER...PLEASE CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AT 1-888-383-2824. YOU CAN
ALSO SEND A TWEET TO @NWSCHARLESTONSC OR SEND AN EMAIL TO
NWS.CHARLESTONSC@NOAA.GOV


I think Augusta may get some snow...so close but yet so far.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, The strong Upper Low over SC is giving that area some mixed precipitation, especially over Columbia and up towards the upstate midlands areas up along I-77 corridor. I know the NC mountains are seeing their first snowfall of the season and we have only just entered the first day of November. This is an amazing deep and unusually strong upper trough for this time of the season for sure.

Also, freezing temps look likely across most areas of the TN Valley and into Georgia, and the Carolinas for the next couple of mornings.

[SeGaBob]

This just came out as well...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
915 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014


.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN INCREDIBLY POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM IS IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY.
HAVE HAD TO MAKE A FEW CHANGES BASED ON SHORT TERM TRENDS.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURES: EXPANDED POP COVERAGE EAST AND SOUTH
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND RAP/H3R OUTPUT. POTENTIAL FOR
DIABATIC COOLING IS HIGH GIVEN CURRENT T/TD SPREADS AND LATEST
WETBULB TEMP PROGS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN A NUMBER OF AREAS PER
CURRENT TRENDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE
TO PIN DOWN GIVEN DIABATIC INFLUENCES.

P-TYPE: INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT P-TYPE FORECAST AS MEASURABLE SNOW
IS BEING REPORTED IN A NUMBER OF AREAS OVER THE MIDLANDS THIS
MORNING UNDERNEATH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW. ITS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH
OF THIS WILL SURVIVE AS IT MOVES EAST...BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY WHERE
DIABATIC COOLING BECOMES MAXIMIZED WITHIN CORRIDORS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. HONESTLY...SNOW CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ITS HARD TO PIN THAT DOWN
THIS FAR OUT...EVEN BY A FEW HOURS. THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE AN
HOUR-BY-HOUR KIND OF DAY. COMPLICATING MATTERS IS THAT SMALL HAIL
COULD ALSO FALL IN ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP.


(I've seen sleet bounce off our cars here but it's eased up for right now.)

[northjaxpro]

NWS WFO in Columbia, SC did report light snow mixing in with rain earlier this morning as the center of the strong cold core Upper Low moved right over the city. This is a record for Columbia with the earliest snowfall ever recorded there.

[northjaxpro]

Latest WV imagery showing the Strong Mid-Upper level Low currently centered on the coast just north of Charleston, SC, moving slighly south of due east.

[rsvh2000]

NWS WFO in Columbia, SC did report light snow mixing in with rain earlier this morning as the center of the strong cold core Upper Low moved right over the city. This is a record for Columbia with the earliest snowfall ever recorded there.

Well a bit more than light snow. Over 3 inches in Lexington, SC (about 15 miles from Columbia). Incredible sight for sure....

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I missed that report you gave rsvh2000. Wow, that is absolutely incredible to receive that amount of snowfall on the first day of November.

[MGC]

Jack Frost visited Pass Christian this morning. Grass was all covered with frost when I let the dogs out at dawn. They didn't want to walk on it.....MGC

[northjaxpro]

Well, after observing the latest model runs from GFS and EURO, and with soon to be extratropical Nuri forecast to bomb in the Bering Sea, this will create rising heights across Alaska and Western Canada and create warmer than normal temps for those regions. In the meantime, a very large pool of arctic air will be poised to dive down into the Eastern CONUS during the next 10 days.

I think by Monday at the earliest we should get the first indications of how the cold outbreak will evolve. It is too soon to gauge just how cold it will get across the Deep South region late next week (Nov 14-17). But early indications show that the potential is there to have an air mass to be as cold or even colder than the air mass that occured last weekend. Many areas of the Deep South saw freezing temps and record lows last week, including in Florida, and a historic snow event down in South Carolina on November 1, the earliest on record across the Columbia area. Will watch closely in the coming days!

NOAA 6-10 outlook for temps. Look at how much below normal temps are forecast to get across the Central and Eastern CONUS:

[MGC]

Looks like another long cold winter down here on the MGC. At least there is the hope of snow this winter with a possible El Nino. If it is cold lets hope for an active souther jet stream bringing lots of UL disturbances our way......MGC

[Stormcenter]

All I can say is

[cycloneye]

Deep freeze in the Southern U.S coming so get ready.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

MY TURN TO LAUGH AT YOU FOLKS!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L0MK7qz13bU

SNOW AND LOTS OF IT FOR THE DEEP SOUTH PLEASE MOTHER!!!!

[northjaxpro]

The latest GFS 156 hour minimum temp forecast for 12Z Wednesday morning 11/19 . A widespread deep freeze for all of the Deep South, with the exception being South Florida, and even there GFS is forecasting mins well down into the low-mid 40s. Readings in the teens in the TN Valley and the Southern Appalachians, and 20s all the way south to the Gulf Coast and into Northern Florida. The GFS has the freeze line dipping down to near the I-4 corridor in Central Florida. Extremely impressive cold outbreak considering it is only mid November.

[knoxtnhorn]

It was snowing during dismissal (school) this afternoon in Knoxville. Good stuff.

[northjaxpro]

Latest 18z GFS 138 hour temperature forecast for 12Z Wednesday morning. Still trending colder! Shows teens now across portions of Northern AL and Northern GA, and the Southern Appalachians. Also, this GFS run is showing 25 degrees for Jacksonville on Wednesday morning, as well as a freeze for Orlando, with temps around 30. This potentially in some areas would break minimum temp records if the GFS verifies.

[SeGaBob]

It might be a bit early, but do you think we'll have opportunities for snow in the south this winter?
Btw our low Tuesday night is supposed to be 22.

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: It might be a bit early, but do you think we'll have opportunities for snow in the south this winter?
Btw our low Tuesday night is supposed to be 22.

Yes. We already have had a significant snow event deep into South Carolina SeGaBob at the start of this month, and with El Nino in place and the -AO / potential NAO negative dips, the pattern can lead to more opportunities of wintry precip across the Deep South or even along the Gulf Coast as the winter months commence. I probably should have posted what I mentioned on the Florida thread here, but if you see the GFS Parallel as being credible, there is a possible situation that may bring some wintry precip to the Deep South the week of Thanksgiving, according to the GFS Parallel. It is very interesting , and something to following in the 7-10 days.

[northjaxpro]

18z GFS min temperature forecast for 12Z Wednesday morning. Frigid temps, with upper teens in areas of the Tennessee Valley, Northern Alabama and North GA, and 20s all the way into Northern Florida, with a minumum of 27 degrees for Jacksonville and 25 degrees for Tallahassee, and mid-upper 30s all the way to near the I-4 corridor on Wednesday morning.

[SeGaBob]

I should have said more opportunities... thanks for your opinion as always. It looks like we'll both have a shot at severe weather today as well. Maybe as winter gets closer this thread will pick up on activity...