Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[BigB0882]

Why can't we get a low to pop in the Gulf and bring us a huge snow/ice storm overnight? Timing is so hard down here. I keep telling myself that someday we will get a big event (5 inches or more). Maybe...but sadly it isn't guaranteed.

[Stormnut]

December 2008 that happened
Got 7 inches off Juban

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Have to give the GFS credit where credit is due. Besides the fact it kept trying to bury the south with snow and ice and ridiculously cold temps 7 days ago, after it came to its senses it nailed this system today. Precip dissipated just like it kept showing and temp dropped to 34 in BR just like it showed as well.

[BigB0882]

Have to give the GFS credit where credit is due. Besides the fact it kept trying to bury the south with snow and ice and ridiculously cold temps 7 days ago, after it came to its senses it nailed this system today. Precip dissipated just like it kept showing and temp dropped to 34 in BR just like it showed as well.

Yeah. It wasn't perfect from 5-7 days out but it had the general idea way before other models began sniffing it out.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well now that the much hyped winter that never was is finally over we can look forward to spring and its rains and what a way start. It looks like a lot of it coming next week. Can't believe no one else has mentioned it yet. Models seem to have locked on the gulf coast and much of the south for that matter to get substantial amounts of rain this upcoming week. Gfs and cmc have both been showing 6-7 possibly upwards of 8 inches for south LA thru next Saturday.

[PTrackerLA]

The rains next week look absolutely copious! Should be a great start to the growing season but I'm afraid we're going to be entering a widespread flooding situation just looking at the models. Stay tuned.

[CajunMama]

Cyclone Mike, we have a dj here in town that years ago (probably 15+) said that there is always one last cold spell right before Easter. Ever since he said that I have remembered and watched. And he has always been right. Winter may not be completely over!

[Stormcenter]

Should this be posted in the Tropical Talk forum?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[CajunMama]

Cyclone Mike, we have a dj here in town that years ago (probably 15+) said that there is always one last cold spell right before Easter. Ever since he said that I have remembered and watched. And he has always been right. Winter may not be completely over!

Mmmhmmm. That DJ is still right!!!!

[LarryWx]

The well inland SE getting one major winter storm in portions of it is far from unusual in strong El Nino's and, if anything, is actually rather common despite them usually not being overly cold winters:

- 4-8" of snow central MS including 4.8" Jackson 12/14/1997 during a super-Nino: http://wdtb.noaa.gov/workshop/WinterWx/ ... dmsnow.pdf

- Atlanta (ATL) had 5" in a 1/1992 snowstorm during a strong Nino.

- Much of the SE US had a very heavy snow/IP storm in 1/7/1988, which was a Nino that had been strong just a few months earlier.

- ATL had its heaviest snow since 1940 3/24/1983 with 7.9" at the tail end of a super-Nino. Other areas in the SE also got heavy snow from this.

- A paralyzing icestorm hit ATL and nearby areas in 1/7-8/1973 during a very strong Nino.

- A record heavy snow hit many areas deep in the SE 2/9-10/1973. Some got 1-2 FEET. Even all of the way over to SAV )near the coast of GA) got over 3", a rarity as this much has fallen in one storm only three times over the last 150 years.

- ATL got a major snow on 1/26/1906 during a strong Nino.

- Much of the SE got a major winter storm on 12/2/1896 during a strong El Nino. ATL got 6.2".

- Much of the SE US got a major snowstorm 2/21/1889 with 6" at ATL near the end of a super-Nino

So, I think that the chances for one widespread major winter storm at ATL and for a decent portion of the well inland SE US is higher than normal for the upcoming winter despite temperatures that likely won't be as cold as last winter as a whole (though they will very likely be no warmer than near normal for DJF overall and they may very well average somewhat cooler than normal).

[Hammy]

I live about 40-50 miles east of Atlanta (Athens/Winder area) is it fairly likely to have at least one major snow event this year?

[northjaxpro]

I live about 40-50 miles east of Atlanta (Athens/Winder area) is it fairly likely to have at least one major snow event this year?

I will say you will have a decent shot at snow across Northern Georgia for at least one snow event this winter. Most winters Northern GA sees at least one snow event an average winter in most cases. During most typical El Niño patterns , flow is more zonal across the Pacific and North America, which produces less Arctic outbreaks. However, I think it is p[lausible to think a situation in which we could get a -NAO period to interact with strong El Niño this winter. We'll see.

[northjaxpro]

216 hr EURO is showing a cold spell dropping down through the Eastern CONUS next Thursday, 10/29/15. If this EURO run is right, portions of the TN Valley or Deep South may see their first freeze of the season just before or on Halloween. Fall/Winter season is here!!! Keep in mind the first freeze predictions thread.

[LarryWx]

I live about 40-50 miles east of Atlanta (Athens/Winder area) is it fairly likely to have at least one major snow event this year?

Yes imo and I pretty much agree with jax. I'd say based on history of similar ENSO that you and most of the Atlanta-Athens corridor have about a 2 in 3 shot at a 4"+ snowstorm, sleetstorm, or combo. Those are much greater odds than the normal odds there for a winter based on all winters combined. Based on history, getting two of these 4"+ events would be extremely unlikely. However, getting a 2nd measurable event that is more minor would have a reasonable shot. Even getting one biggie and, in addition, two minor but measurable events would be reasonably doable. Personally, I think that that corridor just getting one 4"+ event would be enough to make it a very nice winter in terms of wintry precip. Keep in mind that the longterm climo average there for snow/sleet based on ALL winters is only ~2". So, one 4"+ would mean 200%+ of climo. i'd take that and run.

[LarryWx]

Today's Eurasian snowcover update:

Large bare areas in western (good portion S of 60N), south central (all S of 60N), and SE sections (all S of 60N) are progged by the 0Z Euro/GFS to receive multi-inch snows over the next 72 hours. Also, I still no big widespread snow melting rains through the rest of Oct., which is unlike the last few days of last Oct. in western sections.

Temp's: W sections look to be near normal followed by colder than normal last few days of month. The last 3 days of Oct do look quite a bit warmer than normal in much of the C & E sections, which I suppose could cause some south central areas (sub 60N) to become bare. However, that remains to be seen and it would likely have little effect on the regression based SAI, regardless, since it would be so close to the end of the month.

In summary, though I see virtually no chance for the 2015 SAI to end up at 2014's very high level (2nd highest on record?), I will be quite surprised if the 2015 SAI doesn't end up a good bit above avg. thus meaning I fully expect Judah Cohen to predict a DJF averaged -AO again this winter.

SAI = Snow Advance Index, which uses October snow increases in Eurasia sout of 60N to predict a -AO. The theory is that a higher SAI is correlated pretty nicely to a more -AO averaged over the subsequent Dec-Feb., which is correlated pretty nicely to a colder than normal winter over the SE US. However, last winter this completely failed as the SAI was very high and the DJF AO was solidly positive. So, I'm taking this year's SAI with a big grain of salt. Let's see how it does. Perhaps last year was just a bad blip.

[LarryWx]

More on the Eurasian snowcover (SC):

2015 has pulled all the way to about a tie with 2014 for 2nd highest SC for 10/28 with what I roughly estimate is 17.5 msk. If there is no significant melting over these last 3 days of Oct., 2015 could easily end up as high as about 5th for highest EOM SC (back to 1966) behind only 1976, 1972, 1969, and 2012. I see virtually no chance for the ~3 msk late month melting 2014 had since I don't see the massive western flank late Oct. rainstorm that 2014 had and there could still be new SC in some areas. The one thing that could cause pretty sig melting (even though way less than 3 msk of melting) would be the well above temp.'s in parts of the south-central region. That possible melting remains to be seen with only 3 days to go.

Regarding SAI (which measures Oct. SC increases sout of 60N), I now think somewhere around a 4th-5th highest is quite possible. I have been thinking virtually no chance to catch 2014's very high SAI (2nd highest to 1976?) despite a good chance for EOM SC to exceed 2014 and also 2015 starting Oct. lower, because of the formula being regression based. However, 2015's south of 60N SC increases have been so impressive over the last week that I am raising that chance from virtually no chance to low chance. Regardless, it will almost surely come in quite high and get Mr. Cohen to predict a DJF averaged -AO. If it weren't for 2014's -AO forecasting failure, I'd be genuinely very excited about wintertime -AO prospects (which often favors colder than normal in the SE US) like I was one year ago today. Instead, I'm much more cautious.

[LarryWx]

Finally, the Rutgers snowlab released their week 43's hard Eurasian snowcover # (as of 10/26) and they also week released 44's (as of 11/2...so this covers very latest daily SC). These #'s confirm what eyeballing suggested: VERY impressive SC increases over these last two weeks putting 2015 into a very small elite group (going back to 1966). As of week 44 (11/2/2015) it is at a whopping 19.08, which is the highest since 1976 and ~4.5 above the normal for 11/2 of ~14.5!

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/ch ... 4&ui_set=0

To compare, 11/2/2014 had about 3 less at ~16 (after about 3 of massive melting prior 5 or so days) based on eyeballing:

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/ch ... 6&ui_set=0

To look at week 44 for all years going back to 1966, just go here and scroll down to the week 44 #'s:

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/ta ... &ui_sort=1

Besides 1976, only 1972's 20.63 and 1969's 19.42 are higher than 2014. Keep in mind that 1972's week 44 date is not til 11/6. Their week 43, which was as of 10/30, was only at 17.25 (which was lower than the estimated 18 for 10/30/2015). Interpolation suggests that the best guess for 2015 is that it is near 1972 as of 11/2. The 1969 week 44 is as of 11/3. So, as of 11/2, I'll call 1969 about the same as 2015.

In summary, this is how I see 11/2 SC:

1976 is clearly 1st near 21.

2015, 1972, and 1969 are about in a tie for 2nd near to a little over 19

2009 is 5th at a little over 18. The rest are below 18 including 2012's ~17.5, as well as 1966's/1973's near 17. 2011 is near 16.25.

2014 is way back of 2015 at 16 (~3 lower near 2015 due to the large melting late Oct./early Nov).

Note that the top 5 are all during El Niño fwiw.

[Ralph's Weather]

Finally, the Rutgers snowlab released their week 43's hard Eurasian snowcover # (as of 10/26) and they also week released 44's (as of 11/2...so this covers very latest daily SC). These #'s confirm what eyeballing suggested: VERY impressive SC increases over these last two weeks putting 2015 into a very small elite group (going back to 1966). As of week 44 (11/2/2015) it is at a whopping 19.08, which is the highest since 1976 and ~4.5 above the normal for 11/2 of ~14.5!

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/ch ... 4&ui_set=0

To compare, 11/2/2014 had about 3 less at ~16 (after about 3 of massive melting prior 5 or so days) based on eyeballing:

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/ch ... 6&ui_set=0

To look at week 44 for all years going back to 1966, just go here and scroll down to the week 44 #'s:

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/ta ... &ui_sort=1

Besides 1976, only 1972's 20.63 and 1969's 19.42 are higher than 2014. Keep in mind that 1972's week 44 date is not til 11/6. Their week 43, which was as of 10/30, was only at 17.25 (which was lower than the estimated 18 for 10/30/2015). Interpolation suggests that the best guess for 2015 is that it is near 1972 as of 11/2. The 1969 week 44 is as of 11/3. So, as of 11/2, I'll call 1969 about the same as 2015.

In summary, this is how I see 11/2 SC:

1976 is clearly 1st near 21.

2015, 1972, and 1969 are about in a tie for 2nd near to a little over 19

2009 is 5th at a little over 18. The rest are below 18 including 2012's ~17.5, as well as 1966's/1973's near 17. 2011 is near 16.25.

2014 is way back of 2015 at 16 (~3 lower near 2015 due to the large melting late Oct./early Nov).

Note that the top 5 are all during El Niño fwiw.

Do you think that the late October melting last year could have been the reason for the failure of the highly anticipated -AO to develop? This year looks to be well on track for Atlantic blocking to develop later in the season.

[LarryWx]

Finally, the Rutgers snowlab released their week 43's hard Eurasian snowcover # (as of 10/26) and they also week released 44's (as of 11/2...so this covers very latest daily SC). These #'s confirm what eyeballing suggested: VERY impressive SC increases over these last two weeks putting 2015 into a very small elite group (going back to 1966). As of week 44 (11/2/2015) it is at a whopping 19.08, which is the highest since 1976 and ~4.5 above the normal for 11/2 of ~14.5!

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/ch ... 4&ui_set=0

To compare, 11/2/2014 had about 3 less at ~16 (after about 3 of massive melting prior 5 or so days) based on eyeballing:

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/ch ... 6&ui_set=0

To look at week 44 for all years going back to 1966, just go here and scroll down to the week 44 #'s:

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/ta ... &ui_sort=1

Besides 1976, only 1972's 20.63 and 1969's 19.42 are higher than 2014. Keep in mind that 1972's week 44 date is not til 11/6. Their week 43, which was as of 10/30, was only at 17.25 (which was lower than the estimated 18 for 10/30/2015). Interpolation suggests that the best guess for 2015 is that it is near 1972 as of 11/2. The 1969 week 44 is as of 11/3. So, as of 11/2, I'll call 1969 about the same as 2015.

In summary, this is how I see 11/2 SC:

1976 is clearly 1st near 21.

2015, 1972, and 1969 are about in a tie for 2nd near to a little over 19

2009 is 5th at a little over 18. The rest are below 18 including 2012's ~17.5, as well as 1966's/1973's near 17. 2011 is near 16.25.

2014 is way back of 2015 at 16 (~3 lower near 2015 due to the large melting late Oct./early Nov).

Note that the top 5 are all during El Niño fwiw.

Do you think that the late October melting last year could have been the reason for the failure of the highly anticipated -AO to develop? This year looks to be well on track for Atlantic blocking to develop later in the season.

Ralph,
Great Q! I don't know but I do wonder since it was such a major failure.

Despite another solid SAI this year, I currently think Dec.'s AO will average positive due to the current +AO. Then perhaps it will go negative by Jan. We'll see.

[northjaxpro]

Well, FINALLY, it looks like for the first time this Fall season, the first good real shot of cold air will enter into the Deep South as a strong shortwave trough moves through the region and carves out an upper trough across the Eastern CONUS. A brief shot of colder air will move into the Deep South beginning Sunday and indications are that most of Northern Georgia, northern Alabama, North Carolina mountains, and portions of the Piedmont of the Carolinas may see temps in the mid-upper 20s by Monday morning. Freezing temps are possible down into parts of Southern Mississippi, Southern AL and GA as well , and colder interior areas of the Florida Panhandle on Monday morning as temps could dip into the lower-mid 30s across those areas.

These numbers could fluctuate as we get closer to the event, but FINALLY, we get a chance across the Deep South region to get Mother Nature to realize it is late November, not late August! Bring us some cool temps for a change!