Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

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ronjon
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#21 Postby ronjon » Thu Nov 27, 2008 7:10 pm

Hey jinftl, you certainly have the odds on your side with no flurry activity, but you can't deny what the GFS is forecasting - now, the GFS is probably an outlier and as such the NWS usually goes with the multi-model consensus or the Euro so I'm not surprised that they're conservative. That's the correct approach until there is better model consensus. This event is still 96-120 hrs away so let's see what the GFS does -it'll probably come around toward the ECM but you never know - sometimes the GFS nails it. And by the way, the NWS only posts freeze warnings 24 hrs in advance in freeze watches 36-48 hrs in advance.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#22 Postby jinftl » Thu Nov 27, 2008 7:13 pm

In all fairness, going with the 'no snow' line in florida is almost always going to be a winner...but it can happen....not often..certainly not every year, but it can. There hasn't been measureable snow in Tampa in over 30 years....so a few times each century, it can happen. At most.

Do I think for a second that Tampa will see snow this week? No. Are GFS runs the sole basis for NWS and pro met forecasts? No.

It just doesn't seem like we have the set-up in the next 4 or 5 days that would allow it....but i have no doubt the gfs will predict many more snowfalls in the sunshine state this season. The GFS is like fantasy football for weather enthusiasts.

ronjon wrote:Hey jinftl, you certainly have the odds on your side with no flurry activity, but you can't deny what the GFS is forecasting - now, the GFS is probably an outlier and as such the NWS usually goes with the multi-model consensus or the Euro so I'm not surprised that they're conservative. That's the correct approach until there is better model consensus. This event is still 96-120 hrs away so let's see what the GFS does -it'll probably come around toward the ECM but you never know - sometimes the GFS nails it. And by the way, the NWS only posts freeze warnings 24 hrs in advance in freeze watches 36-48 hrs in advance.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#23 Postby ronjon » Thu Nov 27, 2008 7:30 pm

Actually the set up by the GFS is almost perfect for a winter blast into FL - again I'm not saying this will pan out but what the GFS is showing - an anomalously deep trough due to the phasing of the northern and southern jet streams over the lower MS valley that extends from Canada to the central GOM. A slower progression of the long wave trough eastward (compared to the ECM). A deep intensifying low pressure system over the mid-atlantic states. About the only ingredient really missing is a strong artic high pressure system but the weather over the northern states is plenty cold enough to cause FL problems.

Image
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#24 Postby jinftl » Thu Nov 27, 2008 7:35 pm

These are the GFS runs to save and look back on in August...my favs are the gfs runs that bring the 20 deg line south of miami...had a few of those runs last winter....always fun to look at.


ronjon wrote:Actually the set up by the GFS is almost perfect for a winter blast into FL - again I'm not saying this will pan out but what the GFS is showing - an anomalously deep trough due to the phasing of the northern and southern jet streams over the lower MS valley that extends from Canada to the central GOM. A slower progression of the long wave trough eastward (compared to the ECM). A deep intensifying low pressure system over the mid-atlantic states. About the only ingredient really missing is a strong artic high pressure system but the weather over the northern states is plenty cold enough to cause FL problems.

Image
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#25 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Nov 27, 2008 7:37 pm

18x GFS still showing wrap around flurries for all of Alabama and in just 72 hours and parts of North Florida

Image

Image

[imghttp://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_pcp_096m.gif][/img]
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#26 Postby ronjon » Thu Nov 27, 2008 7:46 pm

Look at the 500 mb trough forecast by the GFS - from Hudsons Bay to north FL - Wow, how many times do you see a major model forecast that?

Image
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#27 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu Nov 27, 2008 7:55 pm

Image

Not quite Ivanhater.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#28 Postby jinftl » Thu Nov 27, 2008 8:02 pm

Surprised it doesn't show flurries in miami....it does a few times each winter

NWS Mobile forecast for Pensacola...

Sunday: A 50 percent chance of rain, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62.

Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42.

Monday: A 20 percent chance of rain. Partly cloudy, with a high near 54. Windy.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 33. Breezy.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 57.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 43.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 67.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50.

Thursday: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68.
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#29 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Nov 27, 2008 10:32 pm

I think the farthest south any flurries occur is central AL/GA and all points northward.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#30 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 28, 2008 1:39 am

:slime:

Image

NWS forecast: :ggreen:

Monday...Cloudy. A chance of rain and snow. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

WOWser.

Image

I will NOT get excited, I will NOT get excited, I will NOT get excited. :lol:
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#31 Postby ronjon » Fri Nov 28, 2008 6:41 am

NWS Tallahassee AFD:

MODELS HINT AT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THRU MON LATE NIGHT AND MEX POPS
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS REMAINING INTO PREDAWN HOURS OF TUES...
ESPECIALLY ERN COUNTIES UNTIL TROUGH AXIS COMPLETELY EAST OF CWA.
SO SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES FOR MON (SREF POPS 00Z-12Z
MONDAY WITH 20-60 NW-SE POP GRADIENT BUT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE). BUT
CONCERN IS MON NIGHT INTO TUES IF ANY MOISTURE LINGERS. PARTIAL
THICKNESS PLOTS SHOW MIXED PRECIP ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. I.E. 1000-850
MB THICKNESS IS 1380MB ACROSS SE BIG BEND AND 1290MB ACROSS SE ALA.
AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE MOISTURE WILL EXIT B4 COLDEST AIR SO WILL
DOWNPLAY WINTER WX THREAT UNTIL I SEE SOME MODEL CONSISTENCY. THEN
NO POPS TUES THRU FRIDAY.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#32 Postby JonathanBelles » Fri Nov 28, 2008 2:21 pm

Image

image will change.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#33 Postby jinftl » Sat Nov 29, 2008 9:03 am

NWS Tallahassee removed any talk of 'winter precip' from latest discussion...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
151 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2008

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT THE RAIN CHANCES TO SLOWLY TREND
DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY QUITE A BIT OF MOISURE WRAPPING
BACK INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME CLOUDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND ONLY CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY...EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#34 Postby rsdoug1981 » Sat Nov 29, 2008 11:08 am

I haven't seen the Jackson, MS area's chance at some wintry precip mentioned. 12z GFS still shows a bit of lingering moisture and some good saturation at 700mb. Of course, surface temps won't support accumulation, but it will be a novelty for early December.

Here's an excerpt from KJAN's morning discussion:

THE AIRMASS BEING PUSHED INTO THE AREA
BY THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS QUITE CHILLY...BUT NOT OF TRULY ARCTIC
ORIGIN. THE COMBINED EFFORTS OF DEEP (BUT GENERALLY WEAK) LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SLAB ASCENT OF MOIST AIR BY COLD
AIR BORROWING BENEATH IT SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT A BIT OF LIGHT PRECIP
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN ZONES. DESPITE THE
LACK OF A TRULY ARCTIC AIRMASS...THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND GENERALLY COLD AIR ADVECTING IN AT THE SURFACE
MAY BE ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW FLURRIES
IN NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT. I HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT ACTUAL LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
IN ALMOST ALL AREAS SO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
(ESPECIALLY SINCE ANY SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT).
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#35 Postby Valkhorn » Sun Nov 30, 2008 5:31 am

If you guys want some snow, drive up to Knoxville and points north. We've already gotten snow showers up here and Bristol to Abingdon has already recieved 2 to 5 inches this year.

They're forecasting a 70% chance of Snow on Monday but with light or little at all accumulation here. If it's above freezing, it won't. Western VA and West VA will get some decent snows though but not as much as they've already gotten this winter.

For fun, check out the forecast in the Smoky Mountains:

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 0&site=mrx

The bad news is they close 441 through Newfound Gap just about every single time it snows. The foothills parkway is usually open though.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#36 Postby Brent » Sun Nov 30, 2008 4:23 pm

Still looks like I could see a little snow falling late tonight or tomorrow morning, though I don't expect much, still, not a bad way to bring in December.

UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE(SHORT WAVE) OVER ARKANSAS WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY
EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY. SHOWERS ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI
AND EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE TO INCREASE. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND AS TEMPERATURES DROP...A
MIXTURE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. BEST TIME
FOR THIS MIXTURE TO OCCUR WILL BE FROM MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM AS
FAVORABLE LIFT SHIFTS ACROSS. WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S..WET BULB READINGS REMAINING IN THE
MIDDLE 30S...LIMITED MOISTURE AND WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES...LITTLE
OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND NO TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE
ANTICIPATED. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE ALWAYS
POTENTIAL PROBLEM AREAS AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 40S DURING THE MORNING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE NORTH. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE LATER MONDAY MORNING WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES WITH NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

Tonight...Cloudy. A chance of showers in the evening... Then a chance of showers and snow showers after midnight. Lows around 38. West winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Monday...Cloudy. A chance of snow showers. Highs around 43. West winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 40 percent.
Last edited by Brent on Sun Nov 30, 2008 4:48 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#37 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Sun Nov 30, 2008 4:41 pm

Wow, looks like the NWS in CHarleston is latching on to the possiblity of frozen precip for SE Ga and Coastal areas of SC Monday Night.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE GEORGIA
COASTLINE. A COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNDER CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION...CAUSING SOME CONCERNS ABOUT PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE FROM THE SURFACE WAVE.
12Z GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS SHOW PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
GEORGIA ZONES MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE
AND SPREADING NORTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WET BULB TEMPERATURES IN THE 1000/850 MB LAYER AND JUST AT 925 MB
ARE BELOW FREEZING...HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF FROZEN PRECIP.
WOULD PREFER TO BE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LESS IMPRESSIVE QPF FIELDS IN THE
12Z ECMWF SOLUTION.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#38 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Mon Dec 01, 2008 4:07 pm

WOW!!!!


Expecting Possible Snow/ Sleet over SE GA and SE SC. Tonight around Savannah, GA and Beaufort SC tonight.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
343 PM EST MON DEC 1 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MAY ADVANCE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --WINDS WILL DIMINISH UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING. THEN...
SHORTWAVE/JET MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL
EJECT NE ALONG THE SE COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD
CLOUDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S/SE
COUNTIES.

THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE AS
IT EJECTS NE OVERNIGHT...BUT IN GENERAL 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED
STRONGER/FARTHER N/W WITH DEEP LAYER FORCING/ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED
ENHANCED MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION. IN FACT...THE GFS/CANADIAN MODELS
SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT PERHAPS FAR INLAND COUNTIES. THUS...RAISED POPS AND
EXPANDED COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS S/SE AREAS. HOWEVER...MOST
PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE COASTLINE...THUS LIMITED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OVER LAND AREAS...S/E OF A LINE FROM
CHARLESTON TO BEAUFORT TO REIDSVILLE...STARTING AROUND 3 AM. LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO FURTHER EXPAND/RAISE POPS.

THIS EVENT RAISES PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES. IN GENERAL...12Z MODEL
SOUNDINGS SATURATE THE -10C TO -20C LAYER AND HOLD FREEZING LEVELS
ABOVE 3 KFT ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES...FAVORING LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE...PARTICULARLY IF PRECIPITATION REMAINS
LIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH 950-925 MB WET
BULB TEMPS BELOW 0C...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING WHICH MAY ALLOW A FEW PARTIALLY MELTED SNOWFLAKES TO
SURVIVE TO THE SURFACE AS SLEET...WITH NO ACCUMULATION
. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE PELLETS IS HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SLEET ACROSS S/SE COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

OF GREATER INTEREST IS THE STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER FORCING/
ASCENT...AND THE ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
ENHANCEMENT...DEPICTED BY 12Z MODELS. SPECIFICALLY...MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS DEPICT A COMBINATION OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...DECREASING EQUIVALENT SATURATED POTENTIAL
VORTICITY...NEGATIVE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER...AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS DEPICTED BY SATURATED THETA-E PROFILES AND 700-500
MB LAPSE RATES IN THE 6-7 C/KM RANGE. FURTHER...12Z MODELS DEPICT
FOCUSED 500-300 MB QG FORCING AND STRONG 400-200 MB DIVERGENCE
ACROSS S/E COUNTIES DURING THE 6Z-12Z TIME FRAME. THESE PARAMETERS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE/BANDED CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT
OF PRECIPITATION...SUPPORTING LOCALLY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RATES
WHICH WILL COOL LOW LEVELS TO A GREATER DEGREE THAN SUGGESTED BY
12Z MODEL SOUNDINGS...ALLOWING SNOW TO REACH THE SURFACE.
THE
PROBABILITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINS 10 PERCENT OR LESS
ACROSS S/SE COUNTIES...MUCH TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A MENTION IN THIS
FORECAST BUT SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY CLOSE ATTENTION TO OVERNIGHT
TRENDS.

LAKE WINDS...W/SW WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 33 MPH ON LAKE MOULTRIE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT THIS
IMPROVING TREND MAY BE DELAYED PAST THE ONGOING 6 PM LAKE WIND
ADVISORY EXPIRATION TIME. THUS...EXTENDED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING.-- End Changed Discussion --
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#39 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Tue Dec 02, 2008 11:10 am

Well we had snow early this morning around 4am around Beaufort, Sc. Located near Hilton Head, SC. Talk about a deep south snow suprise. It was around 39 degrees out side but the flakes were soo big and coming down fast it actually created a dusting.

Image


Image
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#40 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Dec 03, 2008 1:15 am

Very cool pictures weathefreak!
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