Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

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northjaxpro
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5741 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:35 am

Well, if the GFS is close on the track of this upper Level Low feature this weekend, it could get possibly more interesting . The 0z GFS 500 mb 60 hour forecast for 12Z Saturday morning shows an extremely impressive deep cold core upper low, lagging to the west/southwest of the blizzard over the Mid-Atlantic region, with the coldest upper level pocket shown moving over the Savannah River Valley and over the Low Country region of South Carolina. This type of upper level dynamic set up would lend credence for snow to fall possibly as far south as the GA/SC border on Saturday morning, with accumulating snowfall possible as well for points north into the rest of the Carolinas.

This event could surprise. Remember, the November 1, 2014 event in SC , had a very similar set up to what the GFS is showing for this weekend. A very anomalous, deep cold core upper Low which produced 6 inches of snow in Lexington, SC, The set up is not exactly the same, as this upcoming cold core upper Low is moving due east, as opposed to the 2014 event, when the cold core upper low moved in from the northwest flow with the polar jet. Also, the upper low in the 2014 event had more sufficient moisture with it, and it is still very questionable how much moisture will be left around for this upcoming system this Saturday, with the deepest moisture likely to be well to the north and east with the blizzard across the Mid Atlantic region. This will be worth watching the next couple of days. I am not saying it is definitely going to take place, but not out of the realm of possibility to see another potential snow surprise down into the Low Country of SC.

Current forecast 0Z GFS 500 mb forecast for 12Z Saturday, January 23

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November 1, 2014

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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5742 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:52 pm

Light snow/flurries are falling currently across Southeast Alabama all the way down into the Florida Panhandle. Troy, AL reported light snow last jour, and light snow is bring reported in Ozark AL and is about to approach Dothan, AL.This area has grown in area coverage a bit across extreme Southeast Alabama this evening as that area of light snow is drifting southeast. the precip area should last for a couple of hours down in that area
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5743 Postby SeGaBob » Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:09 pm

NWS just put in a small chance of a wintry mix tomorrow morning. I hope something happens even though it'll be marginal temps and moisture.
:sick:
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5744 Postby Jag95 » Sat Jan 23, 2016 12:57 am

NWS reported flurries at the station in Mobile earlier tonight. Normally I would have checked for anything falling outside but it's too cold and dark for a few flurries.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5745 Postby Hammy » Sat Jan 23, 2016 1:33 am

Quite surprisingly we got 1/4 inch of snow here with continuing flurries at this hour.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5746 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Jan 23, 2016 3:57 am

SeGaBob, there is a wide area of light snow extending across North GA, from Atlanta east to Aiugusta along the I-20 corridor, south to Macon along I-75. The area of snow has dropped to just north of the I-16 corridor

Macon, Robins AFB, and Dublin are all reporting light snow at this hour.

The overall area is moving east-southeast, so there is a chance you may get to see flurries on and around the Statesboro region around by 6 a.m.extending into the early morning hours til it moves out by 8 to 9 a.m. this morning.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sat Jan 23, 2016 4:23 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5747 Postby SeGaBob » Sat Jan 23, 2016 4:10 am

:uarrow: Yeah I've been watching it most of the night. I'm getting concerned about it sliding north of me and the temps being 41 in town. ( at my house the thermometer says 35) I just hope it works out. :)
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5748 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Jan 23, 2016 4:48 am

Radar on Intellicast showing flurries around Valdosta, Ga, and the regional airport on their recent ob at 4 a.m was reporting light rain and 38 degrees.

Radar is also showing thin bands of sprinkles or possible flurries in and around the Tallahassee and Big Bend area., although the latest ob there showed no precip.

It is 39 degrees currently at my locale currently with overcast skies. Winds are howling out of the west northwedt. Had a peak gust to 36 mph so far in these pre'dawn hours.

I am watching that area of flurries arpund Valdosta as that area is moving east-southeast toward the Florida-Georgia border.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sat Jan 23, 2016 5:32 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5749 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Jan 23, 2016 5:28 am

Valdosta Regional Airport reporting light rain and 35 degrees this hour. They are very close to a chageover to flurries.

Statesboro reporting rain and 40 degrees. The area of light snow is just to the west and north of Statesboro currently. The area of light snow continues to move east from Central GA into South Carolina. It also is expanding in coverage. The GFS a couple of days ago showed a decent potential of light snow over these areas back on Wednesday, which I discussed on this page earlier. The GFS did a good job sniffing this out 48 hours ago.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sat Jan 23, 2016 5:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5750 Postby SeGaBob » Sat Jan 23, 2016 5:39 am

I'm starting to see a few flakes (shining with a light) and it's 34 degrees at the moment. Hopefully it stays around long enough to see it without a light.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5751 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Jan 23, 2016 5:46 am

It should stick around around for at least a couple of hours SeGaBob. The area of light snow extends back west to Macon, so the precip area still has rotate through your area. You msy get a nice light dusting at your locale when it is all said and done.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5752 Postby SeGaBob » Sat Jan 23, 2016 6:47 am

It's snowing now. :D
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5753 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Jan 23, 2016 1:17 pm

Just observed some tiny snow flurries at my locale. They occured for about 15 minutes. 2 years straight i have had a trace of snow observed at my locale.!!!

Very cold here today. Currently at 37 degrees with brisk northwest wind 25 gusts to 35mph. Wind chill temps near 30 degrees currently.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sat Jan 23, 2016 3:05 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5754 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 23, 2016 1:35 pm

Congratulations to all you deep south folks who saw snow. Such a rarity :D
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5755 Postby LarryWx » Sun Jan 24, 2016 12:53 pm

I expect a major winter storm before winter is over to affect a good portion of the SE US that didn't get hit hard by this last winter storm including the ATL-AHN corridor of N GA. So, I think Hammy will get a bigger one than this last one before winter's over. Even SEGaBob could be in the game based on analogs.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5756 Postby timmeister » Sun Jan 24, 2016 4:30 pm

LarryWx wrote:I expect a major winter storm before winter is over to affect a good portion of the SE US that didn't get hit hard by this last winter storm including the ATL-AHN corridor of N GA. So, I think Hammy will get a bigger one than this last one before winter's over. Even SEGaBob could be in the game based on analogs.


What about South Central Mississippi? We'll we see any white stuff before winter is over this year?
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5757 Postby Agua » Sun Jan 24, 2016 9:14 pm

Drove up to Cleveland, MS area Thursday night in order to duck hunt this week end in anticipation of the roads being impassable Friday. NWS Jackson was predicting 2-5 inches. Wind was ferocious, but only about 2" accumulated - of course we come in on the low end. It had all melted by the late afternoon but it was exciting to see it and drive around that morning while it was falling. That's the first accumulating snow fall I've been able to experience since around 2007 at my old home place in Mendenhall, MS. There's a lot to like about coastal Mississippi, but for those of us who like cold weather and snow, winter is not one of them.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5758 Postby LarryWx » Mon Jan 25, 2016 12:55 am

timmeister wrote:
LarryWx wrote:I expect a major winter storm before winter is over to affect a good portion of the SE US that didn't get hit hard by this last winter storm including the ATL-AHN corridor of N GA. So, I think Hammy will get a bigger one than this last one before winter's over. Even SEGaBob could be in the game based on analogs.


What about South Central Mississippi? We'll we see any white stuff before winter is over this year?


My feeling is that you have a decent shot before winter's over. We'll see.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5759 Postby Big_Stevo29 » Sat Jan 30, 2016 5:11 am

Anyone have any idea what the weather might be like for NOLA and the MS gulf coast for Mardi Gras day which this year is Tuesday; February 9th? Are any computer models showing cold weather for these areas that day?
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5760 Postby timmeister » Sat Jan 30, 2016 10:04 am

Big_Stevo29 wrote:Anyone have any idea what the weather might be like for NOLA and the MS gulf coast for Mardi Gras day which this year is Tuesday; February 9th? Are any computer models showing cold weather for these areas that day?


It's was too early for a met to accurately forecast the weather for Mardi Gras day. Wait until 3-4 days out and you can get a more accurate forecast.

However, if you want to believe what the 06Z GFS that ran this morning has in store for Mardi Gras Day, get ready for a cool wet one, turning colder with snow all the way south into the Gulf of Mexico. :lol:

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