Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5781 Postby gatorcane » Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:46 pm

JMA model:
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5782 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:45 pm

I know people in the North Carolina region are pumped regarding the Panthers playing in the Super Bowl on Sunday, but if the GFS is right on the 18Z run just out now, folks across the Piedmont may be in for a surprise snow event tomorrow morning, courtesy of the current shortwave moving northeast right along the U.S. East Coast. GFS is showing possible quick 1-3 inch accumulations from Charlotte and all along Tobacco Road from Raleigh to Greensboro, and a much as 3-7 inches in interiors areas of the Mid-Atlantic region from DC to New Jersey.

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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5783 Postby LarryWx » Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:56 pm

Hammy wrote:Models have backed off significantly on both showing snow and the extent of the cold air with the next front, and have flipped to significantly above normal for the end of the run. I'm personally expecting only slightly below normal temps at this point given the longer trend over the last few days.


Despite that, some areas getting snow flurries/showers wouldn't at all surprise me. But yes, them backing off on the amounts is no shocker as this is not an easy way for your area to get accumulating snow since it tends to dry up as it comes across the mountains. I'd consider it a victory, assuming you like snow, if you get any accumulation.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5784 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:52 pm

The latest 18Z GFS just out now is indicating that the coastal storm which will develop Sunday off the Southeast U.S. coast , looks to be far enough off the coast in which there will only be light precip right along the coastal regions, which may produce light flurries right along the coast of North Carolina and South Carolina as there is a cold pocket of air aloft associated with the strong cut-off upper Low, situated just west of the storm system. Fortuntely this time, it appears the cold air aloft is lagging back a bit too far behind this system, and the storm doesn't really begin to intensify until Sunday night. These factors appear likely to have kept a potential winter storm from happening across Eastern North and South Carolina on Sunday. 534 and 540 partial thicknesses are in place right along the coast, which could support light snow/flurries occuring in those areas just before the storm pulls away from the region and intensifies late Sunday into Monday. This storm is forecast to intensify to 998 mb about 300 miles east of Cape Hatteras, NC by 0Z Sunday evening.

18Z GFS 6Z Sunday morning

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18Z GFS 0Z Sunday evening

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Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Feb 04, 2016 6:25 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5785 Postby SeGaBob » Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:53 pm

Nws just put in a chance of snow for early Sunday morning. Wouldn't be any accumulations if it happens but it would be nice to see again. :)
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5786 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:58 pm

Hey SeGaBob. We both saw flurries back on January 23 at our respective locales that day. 2 straight years of having trace of snow at my locale, which is a a very rare occurance!
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5787 Postby SeGaBob » Thu Feb 04, 2016 6:06 pm

Yeah I heard you got some but I haven't been on since then. :) I think we both had flurries the same day last year as well.



Also here is the NWS discussion regarding Sunday

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
443 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THE ENERGETIC MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD CUT-OFF OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS WOULD
ALLOW SHOWERS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS..EXPECT FOR THE GFS...WHICH
REMAINS MUCH DRIER THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS. AS A RESULT...DID
NOT PUT MUCH WEIGHT INTO THIS MODEL. THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN NEAR
THE COAST...TRENDING DOWNWARD AS ONE MOVES FURTHER INLAND. MOST OF
THE MODELS SHOW COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE AND
DECREASING THICKNESSES...INTRODUCED A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE
FAR INLAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD COINCIDE WITH THE
COLDEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN ACROSS THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME...VERY LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD CHANGE
BACK TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURES RISE AFTER SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY
. THESE SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST...LINGERING THE
LONGEST AROUND THE TRI-COUNTY AREA...POSSIBLY INTO LATE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE CLEARING SKIES...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5788 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Feb 04, 2016 6:17 pm

Yeah, light snow/ flurries fell January 8, 2015 here as well SeGaBob.

Yeah the Charleston, SC mets are spot on. It is a shame (if you want to see snow) that this system will organize and deepen farther offsore on Sunday because a couple of days ago, this system was showing potential to produce a decent snowfall across the eastern portions of the Carolinas had the system developed and intensified a bit closer to the coast and the deep cold air pocket aloft with the mid-upper level Low had caught up to the system from the west.

But, some folks in North Carolina may see snow late tonight into tomorrow morning from the current coastal Low Pressure system impacting the region and heading northeast, which I discussed above.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5789 Postby SeGaBob » Thu Feb 04, 2016 6:36 pm

:uarrow: I ended up with exactly 5 1/2 inches of rain from this system. They were only calling for 2-3 but i'm not complaining. :)
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5790 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Feb 04, 2016 6:41 pm

:uarrow: That is a lot of rain for one day. That is impressive any time, but especially for this time of the year when it is normlly are driest time of the year. This El Nino has been really something this season. Way above average for rainfall here as well. I measured just under 1.5 inches with this current system as well and still raining currently.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5791 Postby LarryWx » Thu Feb 04, 2016 7:06 pm

SeGaBob wrote:Nws just put in a chance of snow for early Sunday morning. Wouldn't be any accumulations if it happens but it would be nice to see again. :)


A similar setup on 2/8/1968 (storm strengthened just offshore) gave mainly only the SAV area a major snow: 3.6", which had been the highest on record (since 1871)! It was so localized that CHS got nothing!
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1 ... ode=vwws20
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5792 Postby LarryWx » Fri Feb 05, 2016 4:45 pm

The 18Z NAM has what may be snow or rain mixed with snow falling in SAV and other parts of SE GA on Sunday 2/7. 850's fall below 0C then. Something to watch for SE GA and perhaps even into NE FL.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5793 Postby SeGaBob » Fri Feb 05, 2016 8:44 pm

NWS Charleston doesn't seem to buy the NAM solution.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
732 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016



.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES A PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING
PRECIPITATION EVENT...AND MOST ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF WET SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING NORTH/NORTHEAST AND DEEPENING RAPIDLY
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW WILL
TRAVERSE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER LOW
TRENDS TOWARD A NEGATIVE TILT...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. INITIALLY...THE RESPONSE WILL INCLUDE AN
EXPANSION DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS SATURDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES. THEN...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH TOWARD THE COAST IN CONCERT
WITH DYNAMIC COOLING. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER SUFFICIENT COOLING
WILL OCCUR WHILE DEEP COMMA CLOUD MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TO SUPPORT NON-LIQUID PRECIPITATION. 12Z MODELS HAVE CERTAINLY
TRENDED FARTHER WEST WITH A LONGER DURATION COMMA FEATURE NORTH OF
THE UPPER LOW...AND WE HAVE ACCORDINGLY RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL
MOST AREAS EXCEPT FAR INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A LONGER
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE OFFERED AN
UNEVEN THERMAL EVOLUTION...AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
HINGES ON THE UNCERTAIN DEGREE OF COOLING. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
SUGGESTS THAT RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF WET SNOW
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION/IMPACTS. HOWEVER...
IN A WORST CASE BUT LESS LIKELY SCENARIO...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL SUPPORT LOCAL CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...AND RAIN/MIXED
PRECIPITATION COULD GIVE WAY TO LOCALIZED/HEAVIER BURSTS OF WET SNOW
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BUT QUICKLY ACCUMULATE ON ROADS...TREE LIMBS AND
POWER LINES. WHILE THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE NAM SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT...THIS MODEL APPEARS TO CONVERT TOO MUCH RAIN
TO SNOW AND COULD WELL BE PLACING THE CRITICAL COMMA HEAD
MOISTURE/CRITICAL TEMPS FOR SNOW MUCH TOO FAR INLAND.
AS OF LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE PROBABILITY FOR THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
REMAINS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH...BUT WILL ADDRESS
THE WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5794 Postby SeGaBob » Fri Feb 05, 2016 8:46 pm

Also they took the snow chance out here.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5795 Postby LarryWx » Fri Feb 05, 2016 9:00 pm

^I don't blame CHS for being skeptical about the recent NAM solutions as that model has a tendency to have too heavy precip. Since it would appear that any sig snow would require fairly significant rainfall rates to bring down the cold air (dynamic cooling) to cool it down enough to the surface, too heavy precip being progged may very well mean that the NAM is too cold at the sfc and has fictitious snow. I'd like to see more support for that much precip from other models before betting on the NAM's accumulating snow. Also, the climo of SE GA (especially near the coast)fairly rare accumulating snow warns me to be cautious before buying into it. No matter what happens, however, this is exciting to try to forecast due to the potential though maybe not high of a historical event for SE GA and vicinity. If the model trend goes further west and the precip tend on the consensus gets heavier, then the likelihood of this becoming a wintry event of significance rises. Keep in mind that Feb has had more than its share of SE GA/S SC wintry events going back in history.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5796 Postby SeGaBob » Fri Feb 05, 2016 9:23 pm

0Z NAM just went unrealistic on the snow. It would be nice to see, but that's just not going to happen with temps at 32 degrees. :darrow:


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016020600/namconus_asnow_seus_14.png

And yeah Larry, climo isn't that great here for snow. Only time I've ever seen it accumulate was in February 2010.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5797 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Feb 05, 2016 9:33 pm

Well, the 18Z GFS is back on board with showing potential snow on the backside of the storm system across Eastern North Carolina possibly extending down into South Carolina. This is what the GFS was showing roughly 36 hours ago, but dropped the idea in yesterday's runs. Now it is back to showing this again, with the idea that the storm system will get close enough to the coast to allow the deep cold pocket associatred with the strong upper Low to bring the possibility of winty precip Sunday morning. The 18Z GFS depicts that extremely cold air pocket with the Upper Low very well, showing a large pocket of 534 partial thickness line directly over most of Georgia and into upstate South Carolina, along with the 540 thickness line from North Carolina south all the way down into Northeast Florida.

It is a very interesting situation which I discussed earlier above on this page. if this storm system unexpectedly can get cranking a bit earlier than forecast and develop even closer to the Southeast U.S. coast , the potential for a surprise snow event would increase across Eastern N.C, down the coast as far south as SE GA, depending upon how much wrap around moisture can spread inland into that deep cold air aloft. Definitely worth monitoring even here in Jax because if this storm system overperforms more than expected, Sunday morning could get quite interesting along the immediate SE U.S. coast.



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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5798 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Feb 05, 2016 9:34 pm

Well, the 18Z GFS is back on board with showing potential snow on the backside of the storm system across Eastern North Carolina possibly extending down into South Carolina. This is what the GFS was showing roughly 36 hours ago, but dropped the idea in yesterday's runs. Now it is back to showing this again, with the idea that the storm system will get close enough to the coast to allow the deep cold pocket associatred with the strong upper Low to bring the possibility of winty precip Sunday morning. The 18Z GFS depicts that extremely cold air pocket with the Upper Low very well, showing a large pocket of 534 partial thickness line directly over most of Georgia and into upstate South Carolina, along with the 540 thickness line from North Carolina south all the way down into Northeast Florida.

It is a very interesting situation which I discussed earlier above on this page. if this storm system unexpectedly can get cranking a bit earlier than forecast and develop even closer to the Southeast U.S. coast , the potential for a surprise snow event would increase across Eastern N.C, down the coast as far south as SE GA, depending upon how much wrap around moisture can spread inland into that deep cold air aloft. Definitely worth monitoring even here in Jax because if this storm system overperforms more than expected, Sunday morning could get quite interesting along the immediate SE U.S. coast.


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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5799 Postby LarryWx » Fri Feb 05, 2016 9:42 pm

SeGaBob wrote:0Z NAM just went unrealistic on the snow. It would be nice to see, but that's just not going to happen with temps at 32 degrees. :darrow:


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016020600/namconus_asnow_seus_14.png

And yeah Larry, climo isn't that great here for snow. Only time I've ever seen it accumulate was in February 2010.


Bob,
I see that the 0Z NAM has gone insane batshoot crazy with 1.25" of qpf for you and 1.50" for SAV AFTER the 850's and 925's cool below freezing. IF that were to really occur, then that would probably really mean a historic snow event for SE GA and vicinity. However, is this just fantasy? Very likely. As CHS has stated about the NAM and per the fairly rare occurrence of accumulating snow in SE GA, I feel we're right to treat this with a huge grain until if and when other models join in with this very heavy precip. The NAM is absolutely notorious for way overdoing precip amounts in the SE during winter events.

For the fun of it, however, IF what the NAM shows were to somehow occur, it would be the heaviest SN storm for SAV and much of SE GA since at least the 1830's. Going back to the 1840's the heaviest on record there are the 2/8/1968 and 12/22-24/1989 3.6" snowstorms.
Last edited by LarryWx on Fri Feb 05, 2016 9:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5800 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Feb 05, 2016 9:43 pm

SeGaBob wrote:0Z NAM just went unrealistic on the snow. It would be nice to see, but that's just not going to happen with temps at 32 degrees. :darrow:


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016020600/namconus_asnow_seus_14.png

And yeah Larry, climo isn't that great here for snow. Only time I've ever seen it accumulate was in February 2010.


WOW!!!. That is insanely crazy by the NAM. 10 inches north of Savannah? 10 inch totals near Fort Stewart? Well, I am not anticipating that to happen. That would be crazy insane. But remember, our event on November 1, 2014. I often chat about that event and have posted about that on several occasions. A very deep cold core Upper Low moved in from the northwest and bought 6 inches of snow to Lexington, SC that day. These cold core Upper Lows have very cold temperatures aloft, and if there is moisture in place to bring down significant dynamic cooling at the surface, you can get some impressive snow accumulation in a short time, like what happened that day.

The big questions are: 1) Can the storm system can organize quicker and closer to the coast, and 2) Will there be enough significant moisture from the deepening storm system off shore to wrap around far enough inland into that cold pocket of air aloft to bring about possible snow on Sunday morning. Thermal profiles do support wintry precip just inland from the coast from NE FL north to Eastern NC. Quite interesting situation to watch over the next 36 hours.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Fri Feb 05, 2016 9:57 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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