Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5801 Postby LarryWx » Fri Feb 05, 2016 9:51 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
SeGaBob wrote:0Z NAM just went unrealistic on the snow. It would be nice to see, but that's just not going to happen with temps at 32 degrees. :darrow:


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016020600/namconus_asnow_seus_14.png

And yeah Larry, climo isn't that great here for snow. Only time I've ever seen it accumulate was in February 2010.


WOW!!!. That is insanely crazy by the NAM. 10 inches north of Savannah? Well, I am not anticipating that to happen. That would be crazy insane. But remember, out event on November 1, 2014. I speak about that and have posted about that event on several occasions. Had a very deep cold cold Upper Low move in from the northwest and bought 6 inches of snow to Lexington, SC that day. These cold core Upper Lows have very cold temperatures aloft, and if there is moisture in place to bring down significant dynamic cooling at the surface, you can get some impressive snow accumulation in a short time, like what happened that day.

The big question is will there be enough significant moisture from the deepening storm system off shore to wrap around far enough inland into that cold pocket of air aloft to bring about snow on Sunday morning. Quite interesting situation to watch over the next 36 hours.


The problem is that the NAM often goes insane with precip amounts. I don't believe it as of now. Whereas history says snowfall amounts like that have occurred in SAV and vicinity and this will happen again at some point in the future, the last time it occurred was way back in the 1830's, nearly 180 years ago. This will be incredibly fun to follow regardless. Is SAV about to experience a snow that it hasn't seen in nearly 180 years? I seriously doubt it but it isn't impossible! Also, even JAX is threatened on these runs though to a lesser extent.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5802 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Feb 05, 2016 10:02 pm

Yeah, Larry I agree. Now, the NAM is a good model to follow in terms of winter synoptics in most cases. But, I think NAM also is overdoing quite a bit. But, the interesting thing I am noticing is that the 18Z GFS is back on board showing potential wintry precip across Eastern North and South Carolina by 12Z Sunday morning. Yesterday, GFS dropped this solution, thinking the storm system would be too far offshore to throw precip back toward the coast. Now, today, it is back to showing snow potential once again. The 0Z runs should be very interesting when it comes out shortly.

Jax will not see any potential significant threat from this, other than breezy, cold conditions, except there may be a slight chance of seeing snow flurries in my opinion on early Sunday morning, if the wrap around moisture can expand south down the coast in this area before the storm pulls away farther offshore later in the day.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5803 Postby LarryWx » Fri Feb 05, 2016 11:08 pm

northjaxpro wrote:Yeah, Larry I agree. Now, the NAM is a good model to follow in terms of winter synoptics in most cases. But, I think NAM also is overdoing quite a bit. But, the interesting thing I am noticing is that the 18Z GFS is back on board showing potential wintry precip across Eastern North and South Carolina by 12Z Sunday morning. Yesterday, GFS dropped this solution, thinking the storm system would be too far offshore to throw precip back toward the coast. Now, today, it is back to showing snow potential once again. The 0Z runs should be very interesting when it comes out shortly.

Jax will not see any potential significant threat from this, other than breezy, cold conditions, except there may be a slight chance of seeing snow flurries in my opinion on early Sunday morning, if the wrap around moisture can expand south down the coast in this area before the storm pulls away farther offshore later in the day.


Jax,
The 0Z GFS brings any dreamers back to reality. Of course, none of us three really believe the NAM verbatim. Let's see what king Euro shows.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5804 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Feb 06, 2016 8:26 am

Larry and SeGaBob, you have to read the Charleston and Wilmington AFDs this morning. They were well written of this potential event, especially the Charleston WFO mets. I thought they were spot on.

It will be a very interesting next 24-30 hours just inland along the SE U.S. coast from about the FL-GA border north to Eastern North Carolina. I don't think we will see something as extreme as what the NAM keeps sellings us over SE Georgia near Savannah. That model is really on steroids LOL..

However, I do feel that areas right along I-95 just inland away from the coast could potentially see some snow late tonight into the early morning hours tomorrow morning. 6Z GFS showed sufficient moisture wrapping just a bit more to the west to the I-95 corridor. The best areas I am guessing that could see accumulating snow will be from Hardeeville, SC northeast right along the I-95 corridor to Sumter and up the Florence, SC. Also, Eastern NC from Lumberton to Fayetteville, NC could potentially see accumulations if the right ingredients are in place for good forcing to allow dynamical cooling to bring down that very cold air aloft to allow snow to fall to the surface.

A look below tells the story. Look at the very potent Upper Level Low, now currently over extreme Eastern Texas. That is the big kicker that will arrive over the Florida Panhandle by later tonight, and later cause rapid cyclogenesis to occur just off the Florida East Coast late tonight and early Sunday morning. Again, the big questions will be if this storm system organizes much quicker than the models have been thinking, and if the storm organizes much closer to the Southeast U.S. coast than initially forecasted. I think there is a potential that this storm could really surprise gang. The dynamics look very impressive with this system and it could really bomb out over the next 24 -36 hours just off the coast.

Image



It is not very common at all to see such an impressive storm system evolve in this corner of the country, but thanks to the very strong El Nino this season, we are having have the rare opportunity of monitoring one this weekend of seeing this potent Southern Stream system phase up with the polar jet right over and just off the immediate Southeast U.S. coastal area, with a potential to give wintry precip and very strong winds at the coast and offshore before it heads farther out to sea late on Sunday.

Will be monitoring closely today and tomorrow.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5805 Postby LarryWx » Sat Feb 06, 2016 9:39 am

^Jax/Bob,
That satellite is quite impressive and this will most certainly be fun to watch, regardless! By the way, whereas the 6Z low res NAM took away most of the low res 0Z Nam SN from the SAV area, the 12Z low res brought a good bit of it back, especially from ~hour 24 to 30 with crazy high precip amounts (~1"), which I still don't believe for that short a period with it being on its own vs reliable models & considering its reputation for being wild from run to run. I did just look at the 12Z hi res nam and, indeed, it has way less. However, it does have 0.25" for hour 24-30 interval, which is crucial period if any SN is actually going to fall there and is more than the ~.05" of the prior 2 hi res runs. So, still something to watch as Jax says just in case there is a surprise near and just after sunrise tomorrow. Betting strongly against it still as long as reliable models don't have it for that area but one never knows.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5806 Postby SeGaBob » Sat Feb 06, 2016 11:25 am

:uarrow: I read it northjaxpro, definitely a interesting discussion. I feel most will be north of me but they did put a chance back in. :)
It's already 54 degrees and it's supposed to only be 52... Will this matter much?
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5807 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Feb 06, 2016 4:31 pm

:uarrow: The storm system is coming together quite well this afternoon, as the Water Vapor imagery I posted earlier above really shows in great detail. Isentropic lift is already ongoing across North Central and Central Florida with a wide area of light to steady rain over these areas. There is also a widespread area of light rain occurring over Southeast Georgia and north up into South Carolina at this time. Also, the pressure gradient is already increasing from the north/northeast here in the Jax area. Currently wind is blowing at around 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph already. Jax Beach Pier already has measured gust over 30 mph. tTe surface trough, extending from South Florida northward up the peninsula, and the High Pressure to the north is already producing a nice gradient over the area. The potent Upper Low is now making its way through Louisiana and moving east-southeast. This Upper Low will rapidly move across the North Florida/South Georgia region late tonight /early Sunday, paving the way for a rapid cyclogenesis to occur just off the East Coast of Florida early Sunday.

NWS Jax mets are now mentioning the possibility of a changeover to snow over the Southeast GA counties which is a part of NWS Jax forecast zone region. They are stating there is a 30% probability currently, mainly from a line extending along from Alma to Jesup to Hinesville. They are analyzing a possible changover to occur between 6Z -15Z tomorrow morning in that region. Right now, it appears to me that this storm is organizing a bit quicker than what the models initially had forecast. The storm looks to develop over South Florida and move initially north/northeast. If this is the case, the developing storm could begin starting out being a bit closer to the coast, which if this ends up being the case, would have significant potential ramifications on Sunday morning. Should this happen, the wrap-around moisture and significant rain shield would be able to progress a bit farther to the west. This may help pave the way for better forcing aloft to drive down dynamical cooling to the surface to bring potential snow by early tomorrow morning across interior SE GA northeast along the I-95 corridor up into the Carolinas. Once the upper Low approaches late tonight from the west, this storm is really going to rapidly intensify and it will be interesting to see just how this will evolve in the next 12-18 hours while the storm system is at its closest point to the Southeast U.S. coast. Also, remember, a rapidly intensifying storm would ring cold air advection in quickly from the north across this region, making the changeover to snow even a better possibility where the forcing is at its strongest. North-Northwest will be very strong at the onset of this event, and gale warnings have already been posted by NWS, from the off shore Atlantic waters from Northeast Florida, northward to off the North Carolina coast.

I will await to see how things fare over the next 6-10 hours. If things trend a certain way regarding the wintry precip, I am thinking about taking the short 1 hour, 20 minute drive up to Hinesville for a little roadie. I figure that would be a good spot to see a potential changover briefly to snow. I also thought about Hardeeville, SC, just across the GA/SC state line just north of Savannah. Hardeeville is right at a 2 hour drive from my locale right up I-95. That may be a spot possibly to see a accumulation occur, IF the ingredients all come together. But, I will have to see first how the night will play out before I decide on taking a little roadie in the car early on Sunday 8-) This is the chase in me coming out I guess... LOL...
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sat Feb 06, 2016 5:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5808 Postby SeGaBob » Sat Feb 06, 2016 5:06 pm

After reading the latest AFD from Charleston I feel less enthusiastic about our snow chances. They bumped the low up to 35, took my area out of the hazardous weather outlook, and I don't think there's enough moisture...
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5809 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Feb 06, 2016 5:16 pm

:uarrow: I have a bit of a different feeling Bob currently. The dynamics of the storm are very impressive. I agree, it will all hedge as to how close initially the storm will be in relation to the coast between 6Z and 15Z tomorrow. All it would take is about an error of 100-150 miles with regards of where the models had progged this storm to form initially. Remember, GFS and EURO all had this storm forming roughly about 250-300 miles east of Jax in most of their runs leading up until today.

I am beginning to think that this storm may form a bit closer to the coast over the next 6-10 hours in its formative stages. As I explained in my post above, that would be rather significant IF it turns out this way. Plus, this may be a situation that with the dynamics in place and deep cold air aloft, it can snow with temperatures in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees with this time of set-up. I have seen this occur numerous times.

Currently, Alma, GA has light rain and 46 degrees with a dew point of 37. If the wrap around moisture and precip shield can reach them later tonight, coinciding with the cold advection ensuing on the backside of the Low Pressure area, I could see a scenario there of a brief changeover and temps cooling to near the dew point (upper 30s). Interesting night potentially over SE GA and along I-95 into the Carolinas.

EDIT: The rain has begun at my home base. Temp dropped 4 degrees from the last hour, now at 49.4 degrees at my locale.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5810 Postby SeGaBob » Sat Feb 06, 2016 5:36 pm

45 at the Statesboro airport. Car thermometer says 40... and light rain is falling. I'm wondering if that's accurate or not. (Im about 6 miles west of town) If it is it would have to slow down with the cooling to only reach 35.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5811 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Feb 06, 2016 9:05 pm

WPC 0Z surface analysis now shows our developing Surface Low Pressure, near Vero.Beach. This Low will move north/northeast and rapidly intensify in the next 18-24 hours. This much I can tell you folks. This Low Pressure has come together quicker and has developed much closer to the coast than what the models had progged for days coming into this weekend. I spoke about this very thing earlier on this page. This could be quite significant for the factors I have already covered above. Very interesting indeed. The Low developed actually over South Florida earlier this evening.

Image

Raw night here. Cold north wind and wet conditions at my locale. Currently 43.6 degrees. I will check back a bit later.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5812 Postby SeGaBob » Sat Feb 06, 2016 9:53 pm

Rain appears to be about over unless more redevelops... Still sitting at 44 degrees at the airport.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5813 Postby SeGaBob » Sat Feb 06, 2016 11:24 pm

Local met says we could get a coating of snow mainly on roofs and grassy areas...but how when the rain is moving out? And the temperature rose to 45 degrees... :sick:
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5814 Postby LarryWx » Sun Feb 07, 2016 3:21 am

:uarrow: 1) Jax, be careful if you decide to make the trip.
2) Bob, it is still raining in Statesboro per the radar late tonight and the hi res NAM fwiw suggests your area may still get precip for another 4-6 hours (til after sunrise).
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5815 Postby Big_Stevo29 » Sun Feb 07, 2016 3:43 am

Hopefully my MS gulf coast, NOLA and MOB will be rain free on Tuesday the 9th. Local mets were saying last night that our weather is going to be sunny; some wind with highs near 50 on Fat Tuesday. :cold:
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5816 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Feb 07, 2016 11:09 am

Larry, I did not make the trip. I made the decision early this morning when it became apparent that this would be mostly an all cold rain event. The only areas that are seeing snow this morning is around the Fayetteville, NC area and other portions of eastern North Carolina.

The storm actually did what I was suspecting tthat it would do, and that was forming much closer to the coast. However, the storm is just now beginning to intensify off the coast. The problem was there was a brief window of about 8-10 hours for a chance of wintry precip to occur. During this time last night, the problem was that the deep pocket cold air aloft associated with the cold core upper Low, lagged just a bit far behind while the wrap around moisture was in place along the SE Atlantic coast overnight. By the time the cold air was being advected into the backside of the Low pressure, the moisture had begun to pulled away off the coast. Only the eastern portions of North Carolina is where this is occurring this morning.

Oh well, it was still worth monitoring overnight. It is not often in these parts to be tracking even a possibility of seeing snow with a developing storm system off the Southeast U.S. coast. We were fortunate this time. If we would have had a deep, colder arctic airmass in place with this event, we would have potentially had a significant snow event.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5817 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sun Feb 07, 2016 11:25 am

Think after this brief cool shot for us mon and Tues, winter looks about over for us. Models showing nothing but 60's and 70's through the month. Sure March may have a couple cool days mixed in but if we haven't had anything by now chances of it happening in March are slim to none.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5818 Postby LarryWx » Sun Feb 07, 2016 11:29 am

^Jax,
I'm glad you didn't take the trip! Actually you and I were posting at the same time lol. I just saw your post after previewing mine. Good post. It was pretty close and you analyzed this storm quite well.
Fwiw, here's my take, which is centered on the low res NAM's poor performance:

Jax, Bob, and myself correctly had big doubts about the crazy low res NAM runs for SE GA and vicinity, where it never got below the high 30's and the rainfall was much lighter than all of the low res NAM runs predicted yesterday on the backside of the low. Other readers can just look back in this thread and see this isn't just hindsighting. Several early runs yesterday had SAV getting 0.75"-1.25" after 7AM and consequently allowed SAV via dynamic cooling to have periods of heavy SN with multiple inches of accum and lowest in the 32-34 range. In reality, SAV's precip was ending around 7AM and temp was near its low with 39. Even the 12Z low res NAM of yesterday had SAV getting 0.75" of rainfall after 7AM with it not ending til ~2PM and it snowing at 1PM with 1" having fallen and 34F! By the way, the much less crazy high res NAM runs of yesterday were obviously much closer to reality with limited or no snow and much lighter precip after 7AM (one run had 0.25" and several others had under 0.10").
Moral of the story is that we three were right to not believe the insane low res NAM solutions for the backside of the low, and I will continue doubting its extreme runs with future storms when it is largely out on its own with heavier and much longer lasting precip.

Edit: Cyclone Mike, I don't think winter wx threats for most of the SE US are over yet by any means.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5819 Postby Hammy » Sun Feb 07, 2016 5:51 pm

As per weather underground, Charleston seems to have at least had sleet for a short time earlier today.

GFS backed off slightly on Mon-Wed snow in Georgia though the NAM high-res is showing a bit more. GFS is hinting at two more snow events in the coming weeks, anybody care to throw their two cents in as to what probability north-central Georgia may see a better snow event than the last one this winter?
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5820 Postby LarryWx » Sun Feb 07, 2016 8:23 pm

Hammy wrote:As per weather underground, Charleston seems to have at least had sleet for a short time earlier today.

GFS backed off slightly on Mon-Wed snow in Georgia though the NAM high-res is showing a bit more. GFS is hinting at two more snow events in the coming weeks, anybody care to throw their two cents in as to what probability north-central Georgia may see a better snow event than the last one this winter?


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