The storm system is coming together quite well this afternoon, as the Water Vapor imagery I posted earlier above really shows in great detail. Isentropic lift is already ongoing across North Central and Central Florida with a wide area of light to steady rain over these areas. There is also a widespread area of light rain occurring over Southeast Georgia and north up into South Carolina at this time. Also, the pressure gradient is already increasing from the north/northeast here in the Jax area. Currently wind is blowing at around 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph already. Jax Beach Pier already has measured gust over 30 mph. tTe surface trough, extending from South Florida northward up the peninsula, and the High Pressure to the north is already producing a nice gradient over the area. The potent Upper Low is now making its way through Louisiana and moving east-southeast. This Upper Low will rapidly move across the North Florida/South Georgia region late tonight /early Sunday, paving the way for a rapid cyclogenesis to occur just off the East Coast of Florida early Sunday.
NWS Jax mets are now mentioning the possibility of a changeover to snow over the Southeast GA counties which is a part of NWS Jax forecast zone region. They are stating there is a 30% probability currently, mainly from a line extending along from Alma to Jesup to Hinesville. They are analyzing a possible changover to occur between 6Z -15Z tomorrow morning in that region. Right now, it appears to me that this storm is organizing a bit quicker than what the models initially had forecast. The storm looks to develop over South Florida and move initially north/northeast. If this is the case, the developing storm could begin starting out being a bit closer to the coast, which if this ends up being the case, would have significant potential ramifications on Sunday morning. Should this happen, the wrap-around moisture and significant rain shield would be able to progress a bit farther to the west. This may help pave the way for better forcing aloft to drive down dynamical cooling to the surface to bring potential snow by early tomorrow morning across interior SE GA northeast along the I-95 corridor up into the Carolinas. Once the upper Low approaches late tonight from the west, this storm is really going to rapidly intensify and it will be interesting to see just how this will evolve in the next 12-18 hours while the storm system is at its closest point to the Southeast U.S. coast. Also, remember, a rapidly intensifying storm would ring cold air advection in quickly from the north across this region, making the changeover to snow even a better possibility where the forcing is at its strongest. North-Northwest will be very strong at the onset of this event, and gale warnings have already been posted by NWS, from the off shore Atlantic waters from Northeast Florida, northward to off the North Carolina coast.
I will await to see how things fare over the next 6-10 hours. If things trend a certain way regarding the wintry precip, I am thinking about taking the short 1 hour, 20 minute drive up to Hinesville for a little roadie. I figure that would be a good spot to see a potential changover briefly to snow. I also thought about Hardeeville, SC, just across the GA/SC state line just north of Savannah. Hardeeville is right at a 2 hour drive from my locale right up I-95. That may be a spot possibly to see a accumulation occur, IF the ingredients all come together. But, I will have to see first how the night will play out before I decide on taking a little roadie in the car early on Sunday
This is the chase in me coming out I guess... LOL...