Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

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Ivanhater
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#81 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Dec 09, 2008 9:34 pm

Brent wrote:Bizarre. New Orleans is about the only place it looks better. No snow for Jackson, Huntsville, Birmingham etc. which got a good bit last run, lol.



Yeah Brent..its all going to depend on the track of the UL
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#82 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Dec 09, 2008 10:49 pm

It better snow! :grr:

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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#83 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 09, 2008 10:57 pm

Ivanhater wrote:It better snow! :grr:

Image


LOL, it's going to be a VERY close call. I really don't think we're going to know for sure til it's either falling or it's not. This is a very borderline setup, and an all or nothing type thing.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#84 Postby PTPatrick » Tue Dec 09, 2008 11:12 pm

I'm pullin for you guys. If I still lived in Mobile I would probably not be sleeping well tomorrow night...but I live in Denver so no shortage of snow. Funny thing is though, being a weather nut, I still find myself watching, peeking out of windows to watch the snow. Last night my dog woke me at 4:00 to get in the bed because it was cold and I had to get out of bed to pull the curtain to see if it was still coming down. I guess I will never get over it :-P
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#85 Postby jinftl » Tue Dec 09, 2008 11:16 pm

NWS Mobile Discussion for Thursday:

ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE MID 40S...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT
SNOW/SNOW FLURRIES OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES THURSDAY AS WE DO NOT
EXPECT A COMPLETE MELTING DUE TO THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR (<0 DEGREES (C))
OFF THE SURFACE. THE TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE THOUGH WILL NOT
SUPPORT ACCUMULATIONS. THE THERMAL STRUCTURE LOOKS A LITTLE WARM TO
MENTION ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON THIS PACKAGE SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREAS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. A CHILLY RAIN NONE THE LESS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT. BY FRIDAY UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS WHILE A SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
THE NEXT RAIN CHANCES COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GULF MOISTURE BACK ON
THE INCREASE. DID NOT MAKE ANY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE MEDIUM RANGE
TEMPERATURES.


No mention of wintry weather from NWS Tallahassee... but plenty of heavy rain and even some coastal flooding possiblel thursday night into friday....excerpt from NWS Tallahassee Discussion:

.LONG TERM...FRI THROUGH TUE.
ONCE THE COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FINALLY
CLEAR OUR AREA FRIDAY...THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALL FORECAST A CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE UPPER AIR
PATTERN...WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS COAST AND
A RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO LA DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...WITH
FAIR WEATHER AND NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. FREEZING TEMPERATURES APPEAR UNLIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND
LOCATIONS SATURDAY MORNING.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#86 Postby Brent » Wed Dec 10, 2008 9:55 am

Looks like this event is going to stay mostly west of me at the moment(as far as accumulations go), though I'm hoping to at least see some snow falling.

Mississippi looks like the sweet spot:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
525 AM CST WED DEC 10 2008

...SNOW EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI...

MSZ028>033-037>039-043>046-048>052-054>058-061>066-072>074-101930-
/O.NEW.KJAN.WS.A.0002.081211T0600Z-081212T0000Z/
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINONA...EUPORA...MABEN...MATHISTON...
WEST POINT...COLUMBUS...ACKERMAN...WEIR...STARKVILLE...
KOSCIUSKO...LOUISVILLE...MACON...BROOKSVILLE...RIDGELAND...
MADISON...CANTON...CARTHAGE...PHILADELPHIA...PEARL RIVER...
DE KALB...SCOOBA...JACKSON...PEARL...BRANDON...RICHLAND...
FOREST...MORTON...NEWTON...UNION...DECATUR...CONEHATTA...
MERIDIAN...CRYSTAL SPRINGS...HAZLEHURST...WESSON...MAGEE...
MENDENHALL...TAYLORSVILLE...RALEIGH...BAY SPRINGS...HEIDELBERG...
QUITMAN...STONEWALL...SHUBUTA...BUDE...ROXIE...MEADVILLE...
BROOKHAVEN...MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON...PRENTISS...BASSFIELD...
COLLINS...MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL...COLUMBIA...WEST HATTIESBURG...
LUMBERTON...PURVIS...HATTIESBURG
525 AM CST WED DEC 10 2008

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO ALABAMA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL
INITIALLY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE ARKLAMISS BUT AS THINGS COOL
OFF LATE TONIGHT THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH SNOW. ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE RAIN SHOULD START TO CHANGE COMPLETELY
OVER TO SNOW EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY. SNOW WILL BE MODERATE AT TIMES LIKELY LEADING TO
ACCUMULATIONS EVEN IF THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. AT THIS TIME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE LIKELY AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT A LINE OF HEAVIER
SNOW WILL DEVELOP WHICH WOULD LEAD TO GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

IN ADDITION TO THE RISK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...WINDS WILL BE RATHER
BREEZY. SUSTAINED WINDS SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
CAUSE VISIBILITY PROBLEMS. WINDS SPEEDS OF THAT MAGNITUDE COMBINING
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW COULD CAUSE VISIBILITIES TO FALL TO A
QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS LEADING TO VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#87 Postby fwbbreeze » Wed Dec 10, 2008 10:40 am

From the Mobile, AL AFD:

.LONG TERM...BY 12Z MID TO UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF KLIX
PROGGED TO MOVE NE ACROSS SE MS AND MUCH OF SW AL. THIS IS DEPICTED
MOSTLY BY THE GFS WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THIS FEATURE FURTHER TO THE
EAST MOSTLY NEAR AL/MS BORDER. TO THE NE CLOSED SFC LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NE INTO NW GA WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHING
SOUTH TO THE FL PAN COAST EAST OF DTS. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
MOSTLY DURING THE DAY ON THU...POSSIBLY COOLING TO NEAR FREEZING AT
THE SFC BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER SOME NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA. WITH THIS HAVE OPTED TO MENTION LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW OVER MUCH
OF SE MS STRETCHING INTO CHOCTAW...CLARKE AND WASHINGTON CO`S IN AL
THU AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION ATTM THOUGH WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND SFC TEMPS CLOSELY POSSIBLY RESULTING
IN BETTER EVAPORATIVE COOLING...RESULTING IN BETTER COVERAGE.
AS MID
TO UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NE QUICKLY DRIER AIR FILLS IN BEHIND
THE LOW LOWERING MOISTURE VALUES SIGNIFICANTLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY
06Z FRI. BY 12Z FRI MID TO UPPER MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH.
THIS PATTERN GIVES WAY TO WARMER SFC TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD SFC RIDGE MOVES
FROM EASTERN TX TO THE CAROLINAS...LATE FRI THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.
AS SFC RIDGE SHIFTS NE TO THE CAROLINAS DEEP RETURN FLOW FROM THE SE
DEVELOPS RESULTING IN MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE SUN THROUGH TUE.
LATEST GFS ALSO DEPICTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING EAST WITH
UPPER FLOW...POSSIBLY GIVING WAY TO WEAK LAYER LIFT OR OMEGAS
RESULTING IN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA SUN THROUGH
TUE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATION DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BE OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA. WILL
CONTINUE TO USE THE CURRENT 00Z MEX GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS FOR THE MID
RANGE AND EXTENDED TEMPS. /32
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#88 Postby Brent » Wed Dec 10, 2008 10:49 am

12z GFS:

Image

Image
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#89 Postby m_ru » Wed Dec 10, 2008 1:56 pm

I'm a little bit west. It looks like I have a chance, though. I'll believe it when I see it and I doubt I will see it.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#90 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Dec 10, 2008 2:45 pm

There is a growing amount of moisture building to the west and south this cold air mass is going to have to work with. It may make for an interesting night and morning in the deep south.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#91 Postby Brent » Wed Dec 10, 2008 3:07 pm

18z NAM, this is SO borderline, a lot of people are going to be disappointed I think, while a few will get it good. High high bust potential.

Image

Image

Image
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#92 Postby Brent » Wed Dec 10, 2008 4:58 pm

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
354 PM CST WED DEC 10 2008

...SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH
ALABAMA ON THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED RAINS...OVER NORTHWEST ALABAMA ON
THURSDAY...ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A 6-HOUR WINDOW...BETWEEN
NOON AND 6 PM...WHEN A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTHWEST ALABAMA.

ALZ011>015-022-110600-
/O.NEW.KBMX.WS.A.0003.081211T1800Z-081212T0000Z/
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-PICKENS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAMILTON...SULLIGENT...VERNON...
FAYETTE...DOUBLE SPRINGS...JASPER...CARROLLTON
354 PM CST WED DEC 10 2008

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHWEST ALABAMA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS ALL RAIN THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE RAIN
SWITCHES OVER TO SNOW AFTER 12 NOON...THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. CONSEQUENTLY...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
EVEN WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING. THE
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE WATCH
AREA.

IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. THIS COMBINATION COULD QUICKLY LEAD TO LOW VISIBILITES
AND POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
424 PM CST WED DEC 10 2008

.A LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO ALABAMA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY.

MSZ028>033-037>039-043>046-048>052-054>058-061>066-072>074-110630-
/O.UPG.KJAN.WS.A.0002.081211T0600Z-081212T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KJAN.WS.W.0001.081211T0600Z-081212T0000Z/
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINONA...EUPORA...MABEN...MATHISTON...
WEST POINT...COLUMBUS...ACKERMAN...WEIR...STARKVILLE...
KOSCIUSKO...LOUISVILLE...MACON...BROOKSVILLE...RIDGELAND...
MADISON...CANTON...CARTHAGE...PHILADELPHIA...PEARL RIVER...
DE KALB...SCOOBA...JACKSON...PEARL...BRANDON...RICHLAND...
FOREST...MORTON...NEWTON...UNION...DECATUR...CONEHATTA...
MERIDIAN...CRYSTAL SPRINGS...HAZLEHURST...WESSON...MAGEE...
MENDENHALL...TAYLORSVILLE...RALEIGH...BAY SPRINGS...HEIDELBERG...
QUITMAN...STONEWALL...SHUBUTA...BUDE...ROXIE...MEADVILLE...
BROOKHAVEN...MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON...PRENTISS...BASSFIELD...
COLLINS...MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL...COLUMBIA...WEST HATTIESBURG...
LUMBERTON...PURVIS...HATTIESBURG
424 PM CST WED DEC 10 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
CST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

PERIODS OF RAIN OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MIXED WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTERNOON...THEN TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES AND END BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE
TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

$$
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#93 Postby HarlequinBoy » Wed Dec 10, 2008 7:14 pm

It looks like a good snow for Jackson.
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#94 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Dec 10, 2008 8:27 pm

This looks like a central Miss to NW AL event for any accumulating snow.
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Re:

#95 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Wed Dec 10, 2008 8:40 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:This looks like a central Miss to NW AL event for any accumulating snow.


I think so too. It looks like the colder air is inching eastward veeerrryy slowly and it just won't be cold enough SE of Hattiesburg to Birmingham for anything frozen. Well, BHAM might get a little but Jackson's looking so good right now. Wish I was off tomorrow.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#96 Postby jinftl » Wed Dec 10, 2008 8:43 pm

Quite a 'colorful' night...of course too much rain too quickly is bad, but it is in a way, nice to see the heavy rain threat over some areas with huge rain deficits like ga, al, tn, western nc and sc.

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#97 Postby Daktar » Wed Dec 10, 2008 8:45 pm

Interesting for sure. I must say that NO one has forcasted this storm correct. I have watched this storm system for three days..None of the major providers had a clue.. This is what makes the love of weather so cool. Even with the best equipment and minds thrushed togeather they fail to understand mother nature.. What I have heard was to much tropical air had been ejected into this storm to support any winter weather! Now I see reports of SNOW in south TEXAS..Man can you believe that. I also see where now a cold upper air low will rip across the deep south. This will allow a localized snow because the cold core low will cool the air in the lower levels allowing for snow to fall..What it will all depend on is the track of this upper low..I seen one suggestion tonight that Jackson Mississippi could see 2 to 4 inches of snow..Here in the smoky mountian area the forcast is 6 to 8 inches in the mountians..I live in the valley area the forcast is for rain all day Thursday will rain changing to snow Thursday night..Right now the forcast says maybe one inch of snow. I hope every one south of me gets a real chance for snow..I know living years on the Mississippi gulf coast how exciting it is to see a snow flake..
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Re: Re:

#98 Postby Brent » Wed Dec 10, 2008 9:13 pm

AL Chili Pepper wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:This looks like a central Miss to NW AL event for any accumulating snow.


I think so too. It looks like the colder air is inching eastward veeerrryy slowly and it just won't be cold enough SE of Hattiesburg to Birmingham for anything frozen. Well, BHAM might get a little but Jackson's looking so good right now. Wish I was off tomorrow.


I wish I was further west but being almost at the Georgia stateline unless the forecast is wrong it's too far for me to drive.

I've about given up hope on even seeing flurries here(looked very borderline anyway). Freaking 60 degrees in December.

All this precip on radar and it's TOO WARM. Story of every year.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#99 Postby PTPatrick » Wed Dec 10, 2008 9:32 pm

If you apply a standard 1 inch to 10 inch snow accum ratio here...Not factoring in ground temps...the 0z nam paint a wide swath of 5-8 inch accum from about Natchez to Just south of Tupelo and a bullseye of 15+ inches in the columbus/oxford/greenwood triangle...if this came true it would easily be one of the biggest storms in Mississippi history. However...

Not sure if that bullseye will be in the totally snow area though...as the coldest column should stay over southern/central MS and it would seem the air would get warmer the furhter north you go. This is not out of the question when dealing with a cold low like this where the coldest area is near the low center. In any case I could easily see Flurries happening from NOLA to Mobile tomorrow afternoon..,although moisture doesnt want to go much past MObile.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... m_pcp_018l

EDIT: This link shows a good reason why that bullseye over N Miss will likely be more ran than snow, and the real fluffly stuff will be between Jackson and the coast.
http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blog ... uation.asp
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#100 Postby PTPatrick » Wed Dec 10, 2008 10:32 pm

meanwhile...NOLA just addedmore Central LA Parishes, and McCom/SW MS to the WWA.
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