Early thoughts on Texas winter 09-10

[Portastorm]

I will never forget what my tae kwan do instructor told me and my classmates years ago after we had finished our first training segment and had earned yellow belts. He said: "congratulations, you now know enough to get yourselves seriously hurt." Of course, he was referring to those who know a little about something and then take that knowledge into more dangerous turf. With this post I feel the same way but what the heck, that's what S2K is all about, eh?!

With winter 2009-2010 on the horizon, I have done some preliminary research. It appears we in Texas will be facing a winter with a cold (negative) PDO and an El Nino of weak-to-moderate intensity. I tried to identify PDO figures and ENSO figures close to what we are seeing now and what is projected for this winter. In doing that I found three winters that appear to have these two parameters:

1963-64, 1965-66, and 1994-95

For central and south Texas the winter of 1963-64 was moderately cold/below average with slightly below average precipitation. The Dallas area reported the second greatest number of freezes (61) in record history so it was pretty darn cold in north Texas. There also was a significant snow event that winter in central and north Texas.

The winter of 1965-66 was odd in that December 1965 was a blow torch for much of the nation but the bottom dropped out, temperature wise, for January and February 1966. Those latter two months featured below normal to well-below normal temperatures with slightly above average precipitation.

The winter of 1994-95 was, weirdly enough, well above normal temperature wise with only average precipitation. I'm not sure what happened here but it is the oddball in the group of three.

What does all of this mean? Well, those of us hoping for an El Nino rainfall bonanza may be disappointed. While all three of these years didn't have above average precip, they also were not below average either. Normal precip amounts. Cold PDOs with El Nino usually mean sporadic precip events throughout the winter but we may not see that "Pineapple Express" jet stream that is continually bringing storm systems over us ... such as in moderate to strong El Nino years.

But I would say that the chances of us seeing a colder than normal winter look decent based on this data. Yes, I realize there are many other elements at play and that is why I have my disclaimer up top. I know just enough here to find some data that makes me scratch my thick skull and think "hmmm... interesting."

I look forward to any and all comments and let the discussion begin!

Waiting patiently for Lucy,
Portastorm

[vbhoutex]

I will never forget what my tae kwan do instructor told me and my classmates years ago after we had finished our first training segment and had earned yellow belts. He said: "congratulations, you now know enough to get yourselves seriously hurt." Of course, he was referring to those who know a little about something and then take that knowledge into more dangerous turf. With this post I feel the same way but what the heck, that's what S2K is all about, eh?!

With winter 2009-2010 on the horizon, I have done some preliminary research. It appears we in Texas will be facing a winter with a cold (negative) PDO and an El Nino of weak-to-moderate intensity. I tried to identify PDO figures and ENSO figures close to what we are seeing now and what is projected for this winter. In doing that I found three winters that appear to have these two parameters:

1963-64, 1965-66, and 1994-95

For central and south Texas the winter of 1963-64 was moderately cold/below average with slightly below average precipitation. The Dallas area reported the second greatest number of freezes (61) in record history so it was pretty darn cold in north Texas. There also was a significant snow event that winter in central and north Texas.

The winter of 1965-66 was odd in that December 1965 was a blow torch for much of the nation but the bottom dropped out, temperature wise, for January and February 1966. Those latter two months featured below normal to well-below normal temperatures with slightly above average precipitation.

The winter of 1994-95 was, weirdly enough, well above normal temperature wise with only average precipitation. I'm not sure what happened here but it is the oddball in the group of three.

What does all of this mean? Well, those of us hoping for an El Nino rainfall bonanza may be disappointed. While all three of these years didn't have above average precip, they also were not below average either. Normal precip amounts. Cold PDOs with El Nino usually mean sporadic precip events throughout the winter but we may not see that "Pineapple Express" jet stream that is continually bringing storm systems over us ... such as in moderate to strong El Nino years.

But I would say that the chances of us seeing a colder than normal winter look decent based on this data. Yes, I realize there are many other elements at play and that is why I have my disclaimer up top. I know just enough here to find some data that makes me scratch my thick skull and think "hmmm... interesting."

I look forward to any and all comments and let the discussion begin!

Waiting patiently for Lucy,
Portastorm

Has she agreed to come back to Texas after being torched out all summer?

[iorange55]

Don't get my hopes up :[ i remember last year some people said it would be colder than normal, and well it wasn't. But I think it was mostly J.B. Or whatever his name is. He always has some wacky forecasts that favor the cold it seems.

[Ptarmigan]

It would be nice if it was a rainy one to end this drought once and for all. Also, don't mind the snow either.

[CaptinCrunch]

Hello again to all my SK2 friends, it's been a loooonng year since last fall/winter, and I'm glad to be back again to bring you all my fun weather facts and predictions.

This has been a very HOT summer for much of Texas and super dry across the centeral and southeren parts of the state. So I'm really looking forward to a cooler fall and hopefully a colder winter than last year. So what does this winter hold for us?? Well that all depends on where you live now dont it..haha, anyway I dont have allot to tell ya as of yet,but I will say LOOK to HALLOWEEN and the GREAT PUMPKIN for all your answers.

My Halloween forecast and the following winter has ran hand and hand for the last several years, so I see no reason why it shouldent be any different this year.

Till then look to the north and the Siberian Express to start that trek south.

CaptinCrunch,

[Portastorm]

Alright Captin ... great to see you back!

I remember the north Texas Halloween analogy well. And yes, it has proven the last few years to be quite accurate. Will be watching with interest.

I will be keeping an eye on those PDO and ENSO values. I'm ready for a good, harsh winter!

[srainhoutx]

For what it is worth, guidance has been advertising a pattern change ahead for several days that will usher in the seasons first strong cold front. While there remains a some of uncertainty on timing, strength, and just how far south this push of colder air will make it, it does appear that some changes are ahead as we move into a fall like pattern. The NW flow as well as strong NW PAC storms and attending cold fronts may just drag down some of the first tastes of fall locally. Although a weak El Nino is forecast for the fall, we have seen in years past that this type of setup offers a wet and cooler trend for Texas. Let's hope this senario plays out as TX needs rain very badly as the drought conditions continue to expand.

[Johnny]

Great research Portastorm! With the way the pattern looks to be setting up, the chances for a tropical system effecting us this year look very slim. Now it's time to look forward to hopefully and good cold/wet winter.

I'm looking forward to the discussions.

[Portastorm]

Thanks Johnny ... looking forward to a cold, wet winter as well!

Hey, check this out ... first time I have seen the 0 degree isotherm show up on the GFS. Sure, it's 384 hrs ... so take it with a grain of salt ... but perhaps it is a sign of things to come. This is pretty early it seems for this to be showing up on the models.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_384l.gif

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I believe in Texas, extreme weather events are usually answered with another extreme event.

We are in a historic drought which answered two wetter than normal summers for most of the state.

The answer to the drought, is either a tropical system, flood, or wet/cold winter.

The window is starting to close on our chance to get a tropical system in the state. We simply don't get many tropical systems in late Sept or October as the fronts start coming closer to sweeping the entire state which changes the prevailing winds.

So we got two other options on the table.

[srainhoutx]

HGX offers some hints with the ensembles this afternoon.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
241 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED WEAK SFC TROUGH WHICH IS NEAR THE I-45 CORRIDOR. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH SOME ACTIVITY
LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS WELL. HAVE PLACED CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST
FOR THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
JUST NORTH OF THE CWA AND WILL PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. THE END RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND AND INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA. PWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 1.7-1.9 INCH RANGE TUESDAY. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING UNCAPPED WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S. BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE NE ZONES
CLOSER IN PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING
FOR THE NE HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY. FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS
BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN MORE DRYING/SUBSIDENCE.
PWS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE...LOWERING TO THE 1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE
WEDNESDAY...1.4-1.6 INCHES THURSDAY...AND 1.2-1.4 INCHES FRIDAY.
WILL FCST 30 POPS ONLY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY WITH 20S
ELSEWHERE WEDNESDAY AND AREA WIDE THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY WILL CONFINE
20 POPS ONLY TO THE SOUTHERN HALF WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE
LOCATED. EVEN THE 20 POPS THURSDAY/FRIDAY MAY BE GENEROUS OVER
WRN ZONES. AS THE DRIER AIRMASS WORKS INTO SE TX...WILL SEE A
LOWERING OF SFC DEWPOINTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS
BEGINNING WED NIGHT. MOST INLAND AREAS WILL BEGIN TO DROP INTO THE
60S. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FORECAST YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SRN ROCKIES LATE WEEK AND MOVE ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH PWS
BACK UP TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES BY SUNDAY. HAVE 20 POPS MOST AREAS FOR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...BUT INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS SOUTH SUNDAY AFTN.
WITH SUNSHINE THE SRN ZONES WILL SEE TEMPS FLIRT WITH 90 THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE SETTLING BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD...THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST A PATTERN
AMPLIFICATION AND WHAT LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT OF THE SEASON TO CROSS SE TX AT SOME POINT IN THE 7 TO 10
DAY PERIOD. THE PATTERN CHANGE IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN AND IS THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE. SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS (NOT THAT
SOUTHEAST TEXAS RESIDENTS COULD POSSIBLY BE ANTICIPATING THIS OR
ANYTHING).
35

[somethingfunny]

I believe in Texas, extreme weather events are usually answered with another extreme event.

We are in a historic drought which answered two wetter than normal summers for most of the state.

The answer to the drought, is either a tropical system, flood, or wet/cold winter.

The window is starting to close on our chance to get a tropical system in the state. We simply don't get many tropical systems in late Sept or October as the fronts start coming closer to sweeping the entire state which changes the prevailing winds.

So we got two other options on the table.

Although I could quote Ed Mahmoud's famous declaration from last season regarding a Septmember shut-off for Texas, I'll instead say that the time has now come to keep one eye cocked to the Eastern Pacific where an increasingly amplified jet stream combined with above average tropical activity due to El Nino could bring us one or more surges of moisture associated with a former TC. The first one is already upon us - several models are forecasting 97E to recurve although the exact track won't even be approximatable until the system becomes more defined, if it develops that is.

In the meantime that 7-10 day-off trough sounds fantastic!

[CaptinCrunch]

Here we are on the first day of Fall and it's just like I would have it, wet, cloudy and brisk (brisk being 62 as of now). So far I have recorded over 10" inches of rain for the month at the house, and last nights storm snapped a 6 inche dia. limb out of my pecan tree in the backyard. Good thing it just missed our bed room window, but it sure sounded like it was going to come through the roof.

September will go down as 1 of the wettest months on record as we are over 8" for the month and rain still in the forecast. Looking back at some of our wettest Septembers, 5 out of 7 came during El Nino Fall/Winters, and with 4 of those 5 Fall/Winters producing at least 2 of 3 months (D,J,F) with measurable Ice/Snow for North Texas.

[Portastorm]

Hey gang, I found a great link to a discussion on the long-range factors we need to consider. The guy who wrote this up is a pro met and posts frequently on the Eastern board. The post you will want to look at is the very first one.

Check out this link, very educational:

http://www.usmessageboard.com/environment/75436-winter-2009-2010-a.html

[srainhoutx]

Hey Portastorm. Thanks for posting this. One thing that is catching my eye in a low to moderate El Nino pattern for TX, is storm tracks. I suspect we will see the Sub Tropical Jet almost over us and an occasional phasing with the northern jet (Polar) that can bring some interesting weather to TX. My hunch is we will see cooler that normal as well as wetter weather for the Lone Star State. I would not be surprised to see areas of low pressure ride along the "Pineapple Express" tapping into Gulf moisture with some cold air in place from Late December through February. It could get rather interesting around here IMHO.

[Portastorm]

:uarrow:

Hey Portastorm. Thanks for posting this. One thing that is catching my eye in a low to moderate El Nino pattern for TX, is storm tracks. I suspect we will see the Sub Tropical Jet almost over us and an occasional phasing with the northern jet (Polar) that can bring some interesting weather to TX. My hunch is we will see cooler that normal as well as wetter weather for the Lone Star State. I would not be surprised to see areas of low pressure ride along the "Pineapple Express" tapping into Gulf moisture with some cold air in place from Late December through February. It could get rather interesting around here IMHO.

Yeah srainhoutx, I have seen several pro mets hint about that type of set up for the jet stream. It would provide a steady flow of weather systems and we could get excited about the promise of above average precip, regardless of where the temperature is. I think a lot is going to depend on the PDO and whether it is positive or negative and if the ENSO values are high enough to be considered "moderate."

There is still of plenty of variability though in the long-term atmospheric factors ... but it's going to be fun to watch how they play out.

[cheezyWXguy]

:uarrow:

Hey Portastorm. Thanks for posting this. One thing that is catching my eye in a low to moderate El Nino pattern for TX, is storm tracks. I suspect we will see the Sub Tropical Jet almost over us and an occasional phasing with the northern jet (Polar) that can bring some interesting weather to TX. My hunch is we will see cooler that normal as well as wetter weather for the Lone Star State. I would not be surprised to see areas of low pressure ride along the "Pineapple Express" tapping into Gulf moisture with some cold air in place from Late December through February. It could get rather interesting around here IMHO.

Do you mean the "polar express" or the "arctic express" or something? I think pineapple is the wrong express lol
And I hope you're right though. I havent seen a winter weather event with more than an inch in quite a while..

[vbhoutex]

:uarrow:

Hey Portastorm. Thanks for posting this. One thing that is catching my eye in a low to moderate El Nino pattern for TX, is storm tracks. I suspect we will see the Sub Tropical Jet almost over us and an occasional phasing with the northern jet (Polar) that can bring some interesting weather to TX. My hunch is we will see cooler that normal as well as wetter weather for the Lone Star State. I would not be surprised to see areas of low pressure ride along the "Pineapple Express" tapping into Gulf moisture with some cold air in place from Late December through February. It could get rather interesting around here IMHO.

Do you mean the "polar express" or the "arctic express" or something? I think pineapple is the wrong express lol
And I hope you're right though. I havent seen a winter weather event with more than an inch in quite a while..

The Pineapple express comes from the Pacific and overrides the cold air in place to produce what few winter precipitation events we have in SE TX. I'm sure it is in play for your area also, but not like it needs to be for us. Obviously some of your winter weather precipitation wise comes from the North where almost all of ours is the result of the above.

[cheezyWXguy]

:uarrow:

Hey Portastorm. Thanks for posting this. One thing that is catching my eye in a low to moderate El Nino pattern for TX, is storm tracks. I suspect we will see the Sub Tropical Jet almost over us and an occasional phasing with the northern jet (Polar) that can bring some interesting weather to TX. My hunch is we will see cooler that normal as well as wetter weather for the Lone Star State. I would not be surprised to see areas of low pressure ride along the "Pineapple Express" tapping into Gulf moisture with some cold air in place from Late December through February. It could get rather interesting around here IMHO.

Do you mean the "polar express" or the "arctic express" or something? I think pineapple is the wrong express lol
And I hope you're right though. I havent seen a winter weather event with more than an inch in quite a while..

The Pineapple express comes from the Pacific and overrides the cold air in place to produce what few winter precipitation events we have in SE TX. I'm sure it is in play for your area also, but not like it needs to be for us. Obviously some of your winter weather precipitation wise comes from the North where almost all of ours is the result of the above.

Oh. I figured you were talking about the movie haha.
I know what you're talking about though. I guess it doesn't set up perfectly too often, but when it does, you guys down south get events like xmas 2004 or last year's "snow miracle," which had way higher accumulations for you guys than us up in NTX

[southerngale]

Portastorm, I think you should go as Charlie Brown for Halloween. And be sure to post pics.