Early thoughts on Texas winter 09-10

[CaptinCrunch]

Expect the weather to be warm with temps into the mid to upper 70's first part of next week, but by Halloween we will see a cold front push thru thursday evening/friday morning dropping temps back into the upper 60's. My personal Halloween forecast is cloudy with a high around 60 and lows for tricker treating in the upper 40's with a slight wind chill making it feel a few degrees cooler.

Over all this Halloween looks to be some 20 degrees cooler than last year when we had high's in the mid 80's

[Portastorm]

Expect the weather to be warm with temps into the mid to upper 70's first part of next week, but by Halloween we will see a cold front push thru thursday evening/friday morning dropping temps back into the upper 60's. My personal Halloween forecast is cloudy with a high around 60 and lows for tricker treating in the upper 40's with a slight wind chill making it feel a few degrees cooler.

Over all this Halloween looks to be some 20 degrees cooler than last year when we had high's in the mid 80's

Don't forget our DFW Halloween Analog, Captin! If it's cold on Halloween in your neck of the woods, that is often a forerunner of what the winter ahead may hold in store.

[snow and ice]

The latest run of the Ensembles for late next week:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSH ... /f192.html

[ntxweatherwatcher]

Are we looking at rain for Halloween in DFW according to the models?

[Portastorm]

And so it begins ... here is a snippet from the Amarillo NWSFO afternoon forecast discussion:

SOMETHING BREWING ON THE HORIZON...

LATEST GFS AND EURO RUNS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT
UPPER SYSTEM THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FROM
THAT POINT...BUT GIVEN THE GENERAL CONSISTENCY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY FELT MORE CONFIDENT IN THE SOLUTIONS. AS THE MODELS STAND
RIGHT NOW...THERE APPEARS TO BE SNOWFALL HEADING TO THE PANHANDLES
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. SINCE THERE CAN BE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
CHANGES BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...DECIDED AGAINST HITTING THE SNOW TOO
HARD. IN FACT...GUIDANCE TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE
EVENT...SO JUST LEFT LIQUID RAIN IN FOR NOW ESPECIALLY SINCE THE BEST
SHOT FOR SNOW CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE DURING THE DAY 8 TIME FRAME.
BUT...GIVEN THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS FALLING WELL BELOW 540
DAMS...AND SUB 0 850MB TEMPS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...THE AIRMASS APPEARS PLENTY COLD TO SUPPORT
FROZEN PRECIP. SO AT THIS POINT...WILL ONLY OFFER THE TEASER AND
START TO FINE TUNE THE PRECIP TYPE AS THE MODELS IRON OUT THE
DETAILS.

A snippet from NWSFO New Braunfels from this afternoon:

JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE MODELS SHOW
THIS TO BE THE STRONGEST FRONT YET THIS SEASON WITH SOME 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE HILLS NEAR HALLOWEEN, ALTHOUGH WE SHALL SEE. HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF MAV/MEX TEMPERATURES.

And NWSFO Midland/Odessa:

BEYOND THE EXTENDED FCST...GFS IS HINTING AT AN ARCTIC BLAST NEAR
HALLOWEEN...W/THE DGEX AND ECMWF CONSIDERABLY
WARMER.

.... and I now think it is time for me to start the official Texas winter weather thread for 2009-2010!!

[gboudx]

Are we looking at rain for Halloween in DFW according to the models?

As of right now, no.

[srainhoutx]

And so it begins ... here is a snippet from the Amarillo NWSFO afternoon forecast discussion:

SOMETHING BREWING ON THE HORIZON...

LATEST GFS AND EURO RUNS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT
UPPER SYSTEM THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FROM
THAT POINT...BUT GIVEN THE GENERAL CONSISTENCY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY FELT MORE CONFIDENT IN THE SOLUTIONS. AS THE MODELS STAND
RIGHT NOW...THERE APPEARS TO BE SNOWFALL HEADING TO THE PANHANDLES
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. SINCE THERE CAN BE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
CHANGES BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...DECIDED AGAINST HITTING THE SNOW TOO
HARD. IN FACT...GUIDANCE TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE
EVENT...SO JUST LEFT LIQUID RAIN IN FOR NOW ESPECIALLY SINCE THE BEST
SHOT FOR SNOW CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE DURING THE DAY 8 TIME FRAME.
BUT...GIVEN THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS FALLING WELL BELOW 540
DAMS...AND SUB 0 850MB TEMPS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...THE AIRMASS APPEARS PLENTY COLD TO SUPPORT
FROZEN PRECIP. SO AT THIS POINT...WILL ONLY OFFER THE TEASER AND
START TO FINE TUNE THE PRECIP TYPE AS THE MODELS IRON OUT THE
DETAILS.

A snippet from NWSFO New Braunfels from this afternoon:

JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE MODELS SHOW
THIS TO BE THE STRONGEST FRONT YET THIS SEASON WITH SOME 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE HILLS NEAR HALLOWEEN, ALTHOUGH WE SHALL SEE. HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF MAV/MEX TEMPERATURES.

And NWSFO Midland/Odessa:

BEYOND THE EXTENDED FCST...GFS IS HINTING AT AN ARCTIC BLAST NEAR
HALLOWEEN...W/THE DGEX AND ECMWF CONSIDERABLY
WARMER.

.... and I now think it is time for me to start the official Texas winter weather thread for 2009-2010!!

Oh no Portastorm. It does look that way.

[Tireman4]

Wow

[CaptinCrunch]

Expect the weather to be warm with temps into the mid to upper 70's first part of next week, but by Halloween we will see a cold front push thru thursday evening/friday morning dropping temps back into the upper 60's. My personal Halloween forecast is cloudy with a high around 60 and lows for tricker treating in the upper 40's with a slight wind chill making it feel a few degrees cooler.

Over all this Halloween looks to be some 20 degrees cooler than last year when we had high's in the mid 80's

Don't forget our DFW Halloween Analog, Captin! If it's cold on Halloween in your neck of the woods, that is often a forerunner of what the winter ahead may hold in store.

I will have my Winter forecast posted sometime the first week of November, but yes my Halloween analog has been dead on for the past 7 years. The only thing that may change for Halloween would be the lows, I went upper 40's on the safe side, but I might have to lower it to the lower 40's buy then.