The Official 2009-2010 Denver winter weather thread

[SCMedic]

Leaves are changing already down here. Got snowed on the last two days at 12k feet. The long term forecast is showing colder nights and cooler days. What's this winter going to bring?

[VoodooCadillac]

Just moved to Fort Collins in May (from North Carolina). Very excited about upcoming season change!

[PTPatrick]

Cant wait. I think this September could feature some white stuff, although based on Long range GFS it would have to be the tail end of the month. Even if it waits til october, no worries. I have noticed a lot of trees trying to start changing, like, a branch here and there on some lindens and elms, as well as the veins closest to the branch on my maple. Yep, Fall is just around the corner. see you guys again when the first threat comes in...

[Dencolo]

Looks like areas as close as Conifer got a dusting of snow yesterday. Driving through the mountains today, you could see the higher peaks with fresh snow on them. I'm still hoping for a September snow here in Denver....

[PTPatrick]

If you believe the 06zGFS, there could be some foothill, and possibly even metro area snow next late monday night and tuesday. It appears to drop a cold upper low down from canada and stalls it right over CO from about Monday evening to thursday. Of course, the 0z had NOTHING that even resembled this so I would take it with a grain of salt. But hey, seemed significant to me as its the first model run from GFS that would hint at white stuff in the area in the 7 day forecast.

[SCMedic]

We can hope. We'll have to watch the models over the next few days and see if it was a fluke or if there is any consistency. I'm done with 80's... Bring on the snow!

[PTPatrick]

As of the 12 earlier today Lucy pullied the football away for next tuesday's cold and snowy spell. Oh well. No sign of it, in fact on 12z and 18z next week looks warm and dry as bone. That is some hugh run to run incosistency.

[vbhoutex]

As of the 12 earlier today Lucy pullied the football away for next tuesday's cold and snowy spell. Oh well. No sign of it, in fact on 12z and 18z next week looks warm and dry as bone. That is some hugh run to run incosistency.

Hey Portastorm!!! I found Lucy!!!! She's in Denver.
Sounds like what she does here in Texas in January or February.

[Portastorm]

As of the 12 earlier today Lucy pullied the football away for next tuesday's cold and snowy spell. Oh well. No sign of it, in fact on 12z and 18z next week looks warm and dry as bone. That is some hugh run to run incosistency.

Hey Portastorm!!! I found Lucy!!!! She's in Denver.
Sounds like what she does here in Texas in January or February.

The mystery regarding where Lucy goes when she is not tormenting me and my fellow Texans during the winter months is solved. Good work vbhoutex!

I feel for my Denver friends. You know that I know what's it like!

[PTPatrick]

From Cheyenne regarding next week...now the models are back on the closed low thing and snow down to 6000 ft.

SUNDAY WILL BE
THE TRANSITION DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THEN MONDAY AND
LIKELY TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER. IN FACT...BY 12Z MONDAY BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE 700 MB TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW ZERO AND THE
1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUPPORT SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET MSL.
FOR NOW WILL INCREASE POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA AND WILL LIKELY ADD SNOW TO AT LEAST THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE
MODELS START TO DIFFER BUT ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OR NEARBY HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE 00Z
GFS CONTINUES TO TREND GRADUALLY WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AT 12Z TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAS
MADE HUGE CHANGES AND IS NOW PLACING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AFTER ITS PREVIOUS RUN HAD AN OPEN TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS ALSO TRENDING SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST BUT
DOES NOT CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW. THE BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK SUPPORTS A FURTHER WEST LOCATION OF THE ENERGY
ALOFT. FOR NOW WILL TEND TO GO MORE CLOSELY WITH THE 00Z GFS. ALL
MODELS PLACE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. THE 00Z GFS KEEPS MOST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. IF
THE 00Z ECMWF VERIFIES...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE CWA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW A LARGE VARIANCE IN
THEIR DEPICTION OF THE PATTERN ALOFT BUT THE OPERATIONAL RUN HAS HAD
MORE CONSISTENCY THAN AT LEAST THE ECMWF. WITH THE 00Z GFS AS A
GUIDE THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.


From Denver:MAIN CHANGES OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS SURROUND THIS NEXT TROUGH.
LATEST CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF...AND THEIR ENSEMBLES DEEPEN THIS SYSTEM
AND DROP IT FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THEREFORE...IT LOOKS
LIKE WE WILL BE SEEING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A BETTER CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS A RESULT... HAVE
INTRODUCED THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ALSO COOLED HIGH
TEMPERATURES OFF ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR MONDAY...AND THAT MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH GIVEN THE RATHER POTENT COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED. IN
FACT...IF THE CURRENT SOLUTION PANS OUT THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
SOME SNOW ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE FOOTHILLS.

[SCMedic]

Even our Denver discussion mentions the possibility of snow down to the foothills. 6k feet aint too shabby! That's a 500 foot swing between rain/snow here!

I hope we get some epic winter storms this year! Last year was dissapointing.

[PTPatrick]

Well the models are still jumping around on the low position with the metric crowd (Euro and CMC) keeping it over the Nebraska to Kansas track with some slight retrogression in the OK panhandle by thursday. The GFS swung back into CO to Arizona type track, and its staying put. Perhaps the true answer will lie in the middle. Either way the further east position will certainly not being snow levels anywhere lower than 8000, and that is generous. The GFS track I think could still get it down to 6000 if everything happens at the right time. NAM looks a little in between the GFS and CMC/Euro camp. Either way it looks like if us flat landers want to see any white stuff next week, we are going to have head up the hill.

[Dencolo]

Agree, but at least we're talking about a chance of snow in September. Last year we flirted with a 'latest first snow ever' record. Hopefully this is just a sign of things to come. In the meantime, check out the forecast for Colorado Springs. Nice to see a chance of snow in the picture...


http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... it=0&lg=en

[SCMedic]

It is exciting to see some snow prospects in September, and I can hope that this is a sign of a big snowy winter, but at the same time, I quickly remember how many storms we saw coming on the models, only to have them fizzle.

[srainhoutx]

If the HPC is correct in latest Final Extended Product, the CMC and ECMWF solutions may give our CO Neighbors some snow, at least in the foothill. Fall appears to be finally be just around the corner.

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon AFD's are looking interesting to say the least for CO, WY and NM. I see the Cheyenne has issue a Special Weather Statement corning colder air and Grand Junction has issued a Freeze Watch for Monday through Tuesday. Hope you folks get some snow.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nat_hazard.php

[SCMedic]

Mention of a possible rain/snow mix in the metro area on Tues/Tues night depending on the model solutions. I'm surprised there is still this much discrepancy 48 hours out. Fun! I can't wait till we see our first big storm this year.

[PTPatrick]

I clicked around using the point forecast and looks like only thing they have going for snow chances would be red rocks(which is technically on the west side of 470. There is nothing inside of 470 with any snow chance . THey havent added it to the palmer divide including elizabeth yet castle rock yet either, although I certainly think that is a possibility. They will probably go ahead and add some nightime snow to those areas with the next forecast. Still doubt much accum even in the foothillls.

This is where I add my plug for snow for Denver. Its my understanding that snow happens on the average every 6 years or so in Denver in September, and it hasnt happened since like 2001 or something. When it does happen, its usually freak, and unforecasted. Denver has woken up to 8 inches in september breaking leafed out trees with narry a flake in the forecast. Having said that, Cold core lows due crazy things, and unexpected snow often occurs right under the core of the low, which is expected to pass right over the area. So, while I am not holding out for it, and I doubt I will stay up late tuesday or monday looking glued to the window, I think there is certainly a chance we could see some mix in, particularly in a heavier band, or perhaps some sleet. I have seen it snow here at 47 degrees, so I dont think its out the question at our forecast lows in the mid and upper 30s.

[SCMedic]

Here's to hoping for a freak snow!

[vbhoutex]

Here's to hoping for a freak snow!

There is something to be said for living in the cooler climes. One can actually post a wishcast for snow and not look like an absolute fool!!