Southern Plains winter wx thread (2009-2010)

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Extremeweatherguy
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Southern Plains winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#1 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Oct 04, 2009 2:19 pm

Could the southern plains see its first taste of "winter" this weekend? The numerical forecast models and local NWS offices seem to think so...

From the Norman, OK morning discussion:

FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS TX AGAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
RESULTING IN SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF PRECIP CONTINUING AT LEAST INTO
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE REST OF THE SW UPPER LOW COMES OUT
AND CROSSES THE AREA. BY THAT TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE N BRANCH OF
THE FLOW... FROM W CANADA SE-WARD INTO THE CENTRAL/E CONUS... WILL
TAKE CHARGE. THE SFC FRONT OVER TX FINALLY WILL MOVE S FOR GOOD...
AND WE WILL TRANSITION INTO A COOLER DRIER PATTERN GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A DECENT DUMP OF
CANADIAN AIR INTO MUCH OF THE CONUS E OF THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. CAN SEE HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S/50S... AND PERHAPS THE
FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE OF THE YOUNG SEASON IN PARTS OF THE AREA BY
NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY. MORE ON THIS IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION WHEN
SUNDAY BECOMES DAY 7.


From the Tulsa, OK morning discussion:

WESTERN TROUGH EJECTS A GOOD PIECE OF ENERGY INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY..AND MAINTAINS
ENOUGH TO KEEP A SOUTHWEST PRESENCE. FIRST WAVE
OF ENERGY INDUCES A SURFACE LOW / SOUTHERLY WINDS
MONDAY. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA / WESTERN ARKANSAS
TUESDAY. BACKING UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE TO
SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL BRING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
RIGHT BACK NORTH AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY STILL
LOOKS VERY WET WITH ECMWF/GFS 700 DEWPOINT IN THE
6+ NEIGHBORHOOD. GFS STARTING TO LATCH ON TO THE
ECMWF PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED COLD PUNCH...ARRIVING
NEXT WEEKEND.


The 12z GFS brings the 0C 850mb line all the way south into north Texas by next Sunday:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_174l.gif
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#2 Postby somethingfunny » Mon Oct 05, 2009 2:36 am

That's got to be close to a record if it verifies. A freeze before Halloween???
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Re: Southern Plains winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#3 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Oct 05, 2009 1:01 pm

The 12z GFS continues to look chilly. Here is a look at the numbers it is churning out...

SATURDAY (Oct. 10th)

Dallas, TX
High - 58F
Low - 46F

Oklahoma City, OK
High - 58F
Low - 40F

SUNDAY (Oct. 11th)

Dallas, TX
High - 62F
Low - 48F

Oklahoma City, OK
High - 59F
Low - 42F

MONDAY (Oct. 12th)

Dallas, TX
High - 55F
Low - 49F

Oklahoma City, OK
High - 48F
Low - 38F

TUESDAY (Oct. 13th)

Dallas, TX
High - 50s
Low - 37F

Oklahoma City, OK
High - 40s
Low - 30F
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Re: Southern Plains winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#4 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Oct 05, 2009 1:18 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:The 12z GFS continues to look chilly. Here is a look at the numbers it is churning out...

SATURDAY (Oct. 10th)

Dallas, TX
High - 58F
Low - 46F

Oklahoma City, OK
High - 58F
Low - 40F

SUNDAY (Oct. 11th)

Dallas, TX
High - 62F
Low - 48F

Oklahoma City, OK
High - 59F
Low - 42F

MONDAY (Oct. 12th)

Dallas, TX
High - 55F
Low - 49F

Oklahoma City, OK
High - 48F
Low - 38F

TUESDAY (Oct. 13th)

Dallas, TX
High - 50s
Low - 37F

Oklahoma City, OK
High - 40s
Low - 30F


Wait till Halloween night, and the Great Pumpkin will rise from a frost covered pumpkin patch to temps in the 30's and signal the coming of a early Winter. :ggreen: :cold: :froze:
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#5 Postby gboudx » Mon Oct 05, 2009 2:28 pm

EWG, how do you get the numbers from the model?
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Re: Southern Plains winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#6 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Oct 05, 2009 3:32 pm

gboudx wrote:EWG, how do you get the numbers from the model?
I'm looking at the raw 15-day text output for each city. I get this information through my accuweather pro account.

The raw data looks like this...

GFS Y Files FORECAST FOR: OKC LAT= 35.38 LON= -97.60 ELE= 1306

12Z OCT05 * - APPROXIMATED
2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 3/6 500 1000
TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU HR HGT 500
(C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
MON 12Z 05-OCT 11.9 14.3 1014 95 55 581 569
MON 18Z 05-OCT 16.0 15.3 1013 82 69 0.01 581 571
TUE 00Z 06-OCT 17.4 17.1 1008 90 54 0.01 581 575
TUE 06Z 06-OCT 19.5 20.0 1006 95 49 0.02 582 576
TUE 12Z 06-OCT 22.3 18.8 1006 93 51 0.02 581 575
TUE 18Z 06-OCT 21.1 12.9 1014 53 38 0.03 581 569
WED 00Z 07-OCT 17.8 11.3 1014 49 23 0.00 582 570
WED 06Z 07-OCT 11.9 10.4 1019 54 23 0.00 582 566
WED 12Z 07-OCT 8.9 13.2 1020 62 34 0.00 583 566
...etc...


I then covert the 2 meter temperature data from celsius to fahrenheit and post the result on storm2k.

There is some error involved though when using this data for highs/lows. Since it only gives 06z (1am), 12z (7am), 18z (1pm) and 00z (7pm), the high/low temperature is not always shown directly. I usually post the highest given number for the day as the "high" and the lowest given number for the day as the "low" when converting the data for Storm2k use. This tends to give a good estimate of what the model expects, but is obviously not perfect. Actual high/low temperatures may vary by a couple of degrees.
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Re: Southern Plains winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#7 Postby Portastorm » Mon Oct 05, 2009 4:41 pm

There's also another tool you might consider that shows those temps and automatically converts them and is updated.

Check out this website and type in your zip code and then you'll have some options on the right side of your screen to check out the 16-day forecast.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/
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#8 Postby gboudx » Tue Oct 06, 2009 10:02 am

Thanks for info fellas.
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Re: Southern Plains winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#9 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Oct 06, 2009 4:20 pm

The threat of a freeze seems to be diminishing somewhat for Oklahoma City this weekend. However, it does still look like it will be getting seasonably cool for an extended period of time. The latest forecasted highs from the NWS for Friday through next Tuesday are in the upper 50s/lower 60s and the forecasted lows are in the low/mid 40s. Both of those numbers are around 10 degrees below average for this time of the year, and are much more representative of what we would expect to see closer to the Halloween/early November timeframe.

Oct. 7th (8:36am) update - - The NWS is now actually starting to trend colder. They are showing high temperatures getting as low as the lower/middle 50s in OKC by the end of the weekend/early next week. This would be closer to 15-20 degrees below average.
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Re: Southern Plains winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#10 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Oct 07, 2009 1:54 pm

The 12z GFS is looking colder once again..showing a freeze threat for OKC next Tuesday morning and perhaps the chance of sub-50F high temperatures.
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Re: Southern Plains winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#11 Postby somethingfunny » Thu Oct 08, 2009 8:22 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:The 12z GFS is looking colder once again..showing a freeze threat for OKC next Tuesday morning and perhaps the chance of sub-50F high temperatures.


Yes, I'm watching this closely. I'm not sure when the earliest freeze on record for DFW is but I've never seen one occur before Halloween. Maybe not with the next front but at this rate not far off either!
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Re: Southern Plains winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#12 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Oct 08, 2009 10:24 pm

It's a chilly night in central Oklahoma! Currently the temperature is hovering in the lower 50s with rain and a gusty north wind. Autumn is definitely here!
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Re: Southern Plains winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#13 Postby somethingfunny » Thu Oct 08, 2009 11:53 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:It's a chilly night in central Oklahoma! Currently the temperature is hovering in the lower 50s with rain and a gusty north wind. Autumn is definitely here!


Good to hear! In Dallas it's 83 degreees with a gusty south wind an unconscionable humidity! I love these clashes of the seasons. 8-) The battlefield will be upon us in a few hours.
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Re: Southern Plains winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#14 Postby somethingfunny » Fri Oct 09, 2009 8:24 am

Let's play 'Find The Cold Front':

Image
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Re: Southern Plains winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#15 Postby CaptinCrunch » Fri Oct 09, 2009 6:43 pm

somethingfunny wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:The 12z GFS is looking colder once again..showing a freeze threat for OKC next Tuesday morning and perhaps the chance of sub-50F high temperatures.


Yes, I'm watching this closely. I'm not sure when the earliest freeze on record for DFW is but I've never seen one occur before Halloween. Maybe not with the next front but at this rate not far off either!



The earliest first freeze recorded in DFW was Oct. 22, 1898.....31 degrees
The last time DFW recorded a freeze in October was Oct. 30, 1993....32 degrees

Average date for DFW to see it's first freeze of the season in November 22nd, however I believe we'll beat that this year.
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#16 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Oct 10, 2009 10:46 am

light snow and freezing drizzle is currently being reported in the OK Panhandle behind the incoming arctic front! Pretty impressive for October 10th!
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Re: Southern Plains winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#17 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Oct 11, 2009 4:29 pm

Today has definitely been the coldest day we have experienced so far this autumn in OKC. This morning we started in the upper 30s/lower 40s and have only managed to rise up to about 49-50F for a high this afternoon under mostly cloudy skies. It definitely doesn't feel like October outside! Our average high this time of year is supposed to be in the mid 70s and our average low is supposed to be in the lower 50s. We haven't been close to those numbers in days!

BTW - To compare, last year we didn't see high temperatures this cold (at or below 50F) until November 21st!
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#18 Postby SaskatchewanScreamer » Sun Oct 11, 2009 5:12 pm

Somethingfunny I think I found it
Image

Picturing you Texans madly digging out multi layers of hoodies/coats/long johns (do you have them down there?) and quilts now!!! :wink: :lol: :lol:
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Re:

#19 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Oct 11, 2009 9:25 pm

SaskatchewanScreamer wrote:Somethingfunny I think I found it
Image

Picturing you Texans madly digging out multi layers of hoodies/coats/long johns (do you have them down there?) and quilts now!!! :wink: :lol: :lol:

Woman!! You send shivers down my spine!!! :D :D :froze: :oops: :oops: :wink: :wink:
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#20 Postby SaskatchewanScreamer » Sun Oct 11, 2009 11:19 pm

For some reason or other it does that to me too! :wink: I'm pretty sure we were sitting at -40 F when it was taken. Must admit I'm really, really hoping for a strong El Nino here (that means we will have a warm winter) last time it came around we hardly went below 32 F.
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