Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[txagwxman]

we're sitting under about 4-5 inches of new snow this morning. luckily winds have relaxed to less than 30 mph so vsbys have increased accordingly. a little more is on the way, but additional accumulations should be minimal. winter sucks.

Enjoy this winter...unlikely to see this again for the next 20 years.

[srainhoutx]

we're sitting under about 4-5 inches of new snow this morning. luckily winds have relaxed to less than 30 mph so vsbys have increased accordingly. a little more is on the way, but additional accumulations should be minimal. winter sucks.

Enjoy this winter...unlikely to see this again for the next 20 years.

I made the same comment to someone last night txagwxman.

[Portastorm]

I keep trying to get away from this forum but y'all keep dragging me back in!!

What another wild weather weekend for Texas eh? The squall line blew through here around 7-8 am. I thought I was going to lose the roof of my house at one point! Temps dropped 20 degrees and now we're in the low 40s and the winds are kicking up.

No snow/sleet for me but I'll be cheering it on for you folks up north. Have a blast with it!

[srainhoutx]

Oh there you are Portastorm.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
914 AM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010

TXZ177-196>199-210>213-226-227-235-201515-
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-COLORADO-FORT
BEND-GRIMES-HARRIS-JACKSON-MONTGOMERY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
914 AM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 907 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 24 MILES NORTH OF
NAVASOTA TO 11 MILES EAST OF COLUMBUS TO 31 MILES NORTHWEST OF EDNA
TO 32 MILES WEST OF EDNA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...WADSWORTH...VANDERBILT...SHERIDAN...ROCK ISLAND...ROANS
PRAIRIE...MORALES...LOUISE...EGYPT...SPRING...BEDIAS...ANDERSON...
WILLIS...WHARTON...TOMBALL...ROSENBERG...PRAIRIE VIEW...PINEHURST...
NAVASOTA...MONTGOMERY...LA WARD...KATY...HEMPSTEAD...EL CAMPO...
EDNA...EAGLE LAKE...CONROE...COLUMBUS...BELLVILLE...AND BEASLEY.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH CANS TO
BLOW AROUND. AVOID TALL OUTDOOR OBJECTS THAT CAN ATTRACT LIGHTNING.
IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS AND HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE OR
NON-CONVERTIBLE AUTOMOBILE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

[Ntxwx]

We had snow mixing in with the light rain earlier this morning with the first band, nothing impressive, but it is favorable for light snow here, since then, temperatures have dipped further now to the 32 mark! Just waitin for the snow deveolping between I-44 and I-40 to head on down.

[orangeblood]

Not sure what's going on but the models show a fairly significant shift to the north this morning. Looks like a bust for North Texas.

[gboudx]

Not sure orangeblood. Here's a new snowfall graphic from the DFW NWS. I'm in the 1-2" area. Woot!

[srainhoutx]

Stay safe Metroplex folks...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1008 AM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010

.UPDATE...
DRY SLOT HAS ROTATED INTO NORTH TEXAS AND THE BRUNT OF THE
RAIN/STORMS HAS ENDED OR WILL END SHORTLY. INTENSE COLD ADVECTION
AT AND ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS ALREADY REACHING THEIR HIGH TEMPS.

AS FAR AS SNOW POTENTIAL...WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENING AND DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE NW CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT
IN PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THE STRONGEST LIFT AND WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR TO THE NORTHEAST OF A SHERMAN TO
CANTON LINE LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHERE ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...HAVE TONED DOWN THE SNOW AMOUNTS
IN THE NW AND METROPLEX AREA TO AN INCH OR LESS...WITH THE
PRIMARY IMPACT OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BE FROM REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. WARM GROUNDS AND TEMPS ONLY NEAR OR BARELY BELOW
FREEZING WILL MITIGATE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL ON ROADS IN THIS
AREA.

[Ntxw]

GFS and RUC both develop wrap around nicely. If the system is slow enough, might just do some good with accumulations. Eastplexers for once looks to be the best bet. Models always seem have problems working with deepening systems when it comes to pinpointing exactly where and how precip develops.

Curious to see what it does after it closes off and deepens rapidly in the coming hours.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say this, but I think from the metroplex-ish eastward, there could be more snow than probably predicted. This is based on how the low will intensify (extremely) and simply sit out and stall for awhile. That is going to ring back tremendous backlash for a prolonged period of time ontop of very cold temps aloft and near freezing below, I don't see why it couldn't bring some nice snow totals should that materialize. RUC has it about from 10pm to sunrise of snow that could get heavier as the night goes. The far northern parts of S\E Texas might get clipped also.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[aerology]

Still seems valid (posted on the 14th Dec back on page 55) so I'll post this again;


Quote:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.


That is one of the problems with the current models the reference time frame is very narrow for initial conditions, and the past three days, a lot of times this will introduce presistance of inertia, to the medial flows, for several days, consistent with the actual flows, as the Lunar declinational atmospheric tides, make their runs across the equator from one poleward culmination to another.

Then as the tide turns and we have the severe weather bursts at declinational culmination, they get confused, or surprised, as the initial inertial effects reverse for about four days before the sweep to the other pole, that brings back the smooth flows, the models understand.

So that when the Lunar declination went to Maximum North on December 3rd, turbulence and shear introduced into the atmosphere, from the turning tide, (the models do not know about), surprised them with the usual couple of tornadoes. Now (12-13-09) that we are ~20 degrees South Lunar declination, the models have a full buffer, of five days of linear inertial, from the Moon's trip South across the equator (12-09-09) and is slowing it's movement.

Coming up on the Southern extent culmination, producing a secondary tidal bulge in the Northern Hemisphere, bringing us to the mid point of a 27.32 day declinational cycle (one of the four routine patterns that cycle on an 109.3 day period). This particular one (#1) that started back on Dec 3rd, has incursions of polar air masses that come down from Western Canada, through Montana and the Dakotas, to make up the Northern part of the atmospheric tidal bulge.

So I would expect to see a large invasion of cold dry air sweep almost all the way to the Gulf coast again, then the produced frontal boundary with the interesting weather, that includes change state intense precipitation. Freezing rain, where the warm over runs cold, and snow where the cold undercuts the more sluggish warm air, still moving North East by inertia alone, severe weather to form in that trailing edge of the warm moist mass, that gets swept from behind from the polar air mass that tries to follow the tidal bulge back to the equator, powering the cyclonic patterns generated by carolis forces, alone as the tide turns, and finishes out as the Moon approaches the equator again.

Expect the same type of interaction again for a primary bulge production by the passage back North, culminating on 12-30-09, pumping in a solid polar air mass very consistent with the pattern we had on 12-03-09, (the North lunar declination culmination), then (#2) the next Rossby wave / jet stream regime pattern, comes back into play with much more zonal flow, and air masses invading from the Pacific, (of the two sub types of) phase with lesser amounts of Gulf moisture entrainment in this one, more in the other #4.

The (#3) third 27.32 day pattern with polar air masses invading in from the Minnesota / Great Lakes area and sweeping out through the Eastern sea board, and mostly zonal flow out west, from 01-27-10 till 02-23-10, comes next.

The fourth 27.32 day cycle, that looks very similar to #2 but with much more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.
usually has more hail and tornadoes associated with it than Pattern #4, and typically flows up Eastern side of tornado alley. Will be in effect from 02-23-10 through 03-22-10, and should produce the first big surge of severe tornado production, from about March 20th 2010, until about March 26 or later as the Next polar air mass cycle is coming out of western Canada, and should make for steep temperature gradients, and ion content differences.

Richard Holle
(I would love to point you to the Beta maps of all the Days in question, but Admin permission for that is still pending)

[Ntxwx]

GFS and RUC both develop wrap around nicely. If the system is slow enough, might just do some good with accumulations. Eastplexers for once looks to be the best bet. Models always seem have problems working with deepening systems when it comes to pinpointing exactly where and how precip develops.

Curious to see what it does after it closes off and deepens rapidly in the coming hours.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say this, but I think from the metroplex-ish eastward, there could be more snow than probably predicted. This is based on how the low will intensify (extremely) and simply sit out and stall for awhile. That is going to ring back tremendous backlash for a prolonged period of time ontop of very cold temps aloft and near freezing below, I don't see why it couldn't bring some nice snow totals should that materialize. RUC has it about from 10pm to sunrise of snow that could get heavier as the night goes. The far northern parts of S\E Texas might get clipped also.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Agree

[Ntxw]

I expect to see more changes as things continue to progress. RUC continues to show a prolonged event roughly just north of Waco to Paris or Clarksville with the best continuous backlash precip.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
354 PM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOW SITUATED OVER CHILDLESS AND CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
LATEST TRENDS AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT THE ONGOING FORECAST IS
IN REASONABLY GOOD SHAPE AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AND MOST SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOK TO BE NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
GAINESVILLE TO MCKINNEY TO CANTON WHERE ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...SNOW SHOULD BE
LIGHTER WITH ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN A TRACE AND 2 INCHES. TEMPS
WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING...AND WARM GROUNDS MEAN MOST ROADS WILL
REMAIN WET...EXCEPT IN THE HEAVIER SNOW AREA IN THE NORTHEAST CWA.
ONE OF THE IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FROM SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...BUT ALL IN ALL EXPECT A RATHER LOW
IMPACT EVENT FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ADVISORY FROM GRAHAM INTO
THE METROPLEX.

WRAP AROUND SNOW BAND HAS DEVELOPED NW OF THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE 12Z NAM /WHICH WAS DISCARDED/...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...AND ALL SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DEEPENING OF THE 500 MB HEIGHT CENTER BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD
ENHANCE THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS FORECAST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE NE INTO THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE FINALLY ENDING WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. THERE IS STILL
A POSSIBILITY OF A HEAVY SNOW WARNING BEING ISSUED FOR THE PARIS
REGION FOR AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES...BUT THE CURRENT 3-4
INCH AMOUNT FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH ALL PERFECT PROG DATA
FROM GLOBAL MODELS AND SREF MEAN. SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES MAY
EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE WACO AREA TONIGHT BUT ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BECOME LESS LIKELY SOUTH OF I-20.

[TrekkerCC]

I expect to see more changes as things continue to progress. RUC continues to show a prolonged event roughly just north of Waco to Paris or Clarksville with the best continuous backlash precip.

Quote:

Thanks for keeping us updated. I, too, am watching trends in the models and the radar. It is looking good for tonight. I believe DFW Airport needs only ~2.50"? of snow in order to set the record for most snow in a season. It would be cool if wecould set this final record, given how crazy this season has been in general.

-Trek

[KatDaddy]

Seeing very light snow flurries N of Fort Worth in Roanoke.

[Ntxwx]

Getting decent snow right now, not quite a moderate clip but winds howling out of the Northwest sending the snow racing horizantly. It is 33 here, not much accumulation not even a coating yet but things starting to turn white esp along fence lines and on the sides of cars facing the north and west. As you know I work in wise county regulation, Decatur reporting flurries and light snow as well. Sheriff Walker said we are bracing for more snow to move in from the west and a county met said a heavier snow band along jack county line is heading due east. Will keep yall udpated.

[Texas Snowman]

I expect to see more changes as things continue to progress. RUC continues to show a prolonged event roughly just north of Waco to Paris or Clarksville with the best continuous backlash precip.

Quote:

Thanks for keeping us updated. I, too, am watching trends in the models and the radar. It is looking good for tonight. I believe DFW Airport needs only ~2.50"? of snow in order to set the record for most snow in a season. It would be cool if wecould set this final record, given how crazy this season has been in general.

-Trek

I think DFW only needs 1.9" to tie and 2.0 to break the record. According to a previous story by pro met Steve LaNore at Examiner.com, the DFW seasonal snowfall record is 17.6" from 1977-78 and so far during the 2009-10 winter season, the total is 15.7".

On a similar note, OKC still needs 4.5 inches to tie their seasonal record (2009-10 currently ranks 6th on the list of snowiest winters).

They have 20.7 for the season so far and need to get to 25.2 to tie.

[KatDaddy]

According to radar snow, should start in Roanoke within 15-30 minutes.

[Ntxwx]

Now snowing at a very good clip,the aggressive winds make for impressive impacts a light accumulation right here in bridgeport.

[Ntxwx]

32 Degrees HEAVY Snow over a dusting of accumulation about a 2 inch drift up against the fence but an average of a dusting across the grassy surfaces, rapidly pileing up as near blizzard conditions persist at the present time. Nice big flakes, fun to watch!

[KatDaddy]

Small snow pellents are coming down now. We are in the mix with snow soon to follow.