The 2009/10 North Texas Halloween Analog and Winter Outlook

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CaptinCrunch
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The 2009/10 North Texas Halloween Analog and Winter Outlook

#1 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Nov 11, 2009 3:56 pm

The 2009-2010 North Texas Halloween Analog and Winter Outlook

Image

Image

Last years Analog: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=103272

October 31, 2009 is the first Halloween to average below the daily mean in 3 yrs.

October 31, 2009........H/74.....L/41......avg/58..... -3 below avg

October closed out at -4.5 below the monthly avg for temps (second month in a row for below avg monthly temps) and +3.98 above for precip (October was the 6th wettest on record @ 8.05" recorded at DFW Airport)(I had almost 13" at the house in sourthern Tarrant Co) on a side note October 2009 went down as the cloudiest on record.

How will the winter of 09/10 play out? To start with we are in an El Nino year that is forecast to be moderate at the least by the first of the New Year. This will give North TX a better than average chance for lower monthly temperatures, a higher amount of monthly rain fall, and a better chance at frozen precip.

North Texas has already felt the effects of El Nino through September and October with back to back record rains, and lower than average monthly temperatures. Heading into the last week of October I said that we were heading in to a more zonal pattern across the US by just looking at the atmospheric weather pattern., and that the pattern should last through the first 10 days on November or so.

Today is November 10th and the zonal pattern is still in place and looks to remain in place for another 6 to 10 days across the US. Thanks to the zonal pattern we got a rare late season Hurricane (Ida) out of it. Somewhere around the 16th on November we should see the changeover to more of a Sept-Oct weather pattern with more ridging in the east and low pressure systems digging out across the west.

Looking toward Thanksgiving I think we’ll be seeing much colder weather pushing down the central and eastern US. I think for us here in NTX Thanksgiving may be cloudy cold and wet with rain. I don’t see any frozen precip in the near future for NTX, at least not until around the 2nd week of December when we may see the type of weather we saw in Sept-Oct, just with the much colder temps in place.

As I said before, our NTX winter will be colder and wetter than the past 2 winters. El Nino combined with a warm polar winter will enhance our chances for prolonged periods of cold weather and bring a high than average chance at some frozen precip.
Last edited by CaptinCrunch on Wed Dec 02, 2009 3:49 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: The 2009-2010 North Texas Halloween Analog and Winter Outloo

#2 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Nov 11, 2009 3:59 pm

NWS FTW 11-11-09

PATTERN REMAINS RATHER UNEVENTFUL UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN AN UPPER
TROF APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER LOW OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS BUT
LATEST ECMWF/GFS AND SEVERAL OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE
CONVERGED ON A MORE PRONOUNCED TROF DIGGING INTO THE 4-CORNERS
REGION IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA BY
12Z SUNDAY. WHILE THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO
EXACT TRACK OF UPPER LOW AND QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
IT...FELT IT NECESSARY TO RAISE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AFTN AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN...WHICH AT THIS
TIME DOES NOT APPEAR VERY IMPRESSIVE. WILL FINE TUNE THE DETAILS
OVER THE COMING DAYS. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA AND HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING...SHOWING THE FROPA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE 40S FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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Re: The 2009/10 North Texas Halloween Analog and Winter Outlook

#3 Postby snow and ice » Wed Nov 11, 2009 8:18 pm

As long as that vortex is parked over Alaska, the lower 48 won't be seeing any arctic air. That's not to say there won't be a day or two of cool wet days over the next couple weeks. The 18z Ensembles take the Alaska vortex off the playing surface on day 14 and beyond, allowing some ridging to take place over the west. In response, it looks like a trough is being carved out in the central and eastern US.
However, as you point out, it'll probably be early-mid December before any true arctic air gets involved with these El-Nino systems as they trek a long the southern stream. I think we'll see several major severe weather outbreaks before then.
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Re: The 2009/10 North Texas Halloween Analog and Winter Outlook

#4 Postby amawea » Wed Nov 11, 2009 10:23 pm

I believe you are nailing it CaptainCrunch. The ensembles are pretty much showing a trough over the central U.S. around day 10. This beautiful weather that was long over due here in north Arkansas is going to get a wake up call from Mr. Winter around Thanksgiving me thinks. There are no signs of any cross polar flow yet, but I think it's just a matter of time as we get into winter.
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#5 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Nov 12, 2009 4:19 pm

Looking back at the position of the vortex during the months of September and October, it was off to the NE of the polar cap. That allowed for the stormy weather pattern we had with lows tracking across the southern US. The vortex shifted back to the west during the last week of October, and has parked itself in its current position. Till we start seeing another line of upper lows moving across the pacific or forming in the gulf things will remain fairly quiet, but we also need the polar vortex to move back to the north east to open the door on the arctic air that’s bottled up behind it.
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#6 Postby gboudx » Thu Nov 12, 2009 4:53 pm

I look forward to hearing about MacFarland's Signature and cross-polar flow this winter.
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#7 Postby CaptinCrunch » Sun Nov 15, 2009 11:28 pm

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE SHALLOW LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD
FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING BUT THE
DRASTICALLY COLDER AIR IS STILL BACK OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHWEST TEXAS. THIS COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AS THE
COLD AIR/SECONDARY FRONT ARRIVES...WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE...LOW CLOUD COVER WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION...AND
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL QUICKLY FALL. INHERITED OVERNIGHT
LOWS LOOKED REASONABLE AND DID NOT ADJUST. WITH THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS...WIND CHILL READINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S.

:cold:

Average date for DFW to see it's first freeze of the season in November 22nd
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Re: The 2009/10 North Texas Halloween Analog and Winter Outlook

#8 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Nov 17, 2009 10:02 am

MORNING LOWS ARE STAYING A TOUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...MOSTLY
LIKELY DUE TO A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS. A FEW
SPOTS IN THE EXTREME WESTERN ZONES MAY BRIEFLY REACH FREEZING BY
SUNRISE SO WILL LEAVE THE FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT THIS MORNING.
IT APPEARS THAT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHTER WEDNESDAY MORNING SO WILL
EXPECT MORE SITES TO REACH FREEZING. THEREFORE...WE WILL ISSUE A
NEW FREEZE WARNING FOR ABOUT THE WESTERN TWO ROWS OF NORTH TEXAS
COUNTIES. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES FRIDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S THROUGH THE WEEK...EXCEPT FOR SOME MID AND UPPER 50S IN
THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.



URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
848 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2009


TXZ100-115-116-129-141-142-171830-
/O.EXP.KFWD.FZ.W.0004.000000T0000Z-091117T1500Z/
/O.CON.KFWD.FZ.W.0005.091118T1000Z-091118T1500Z/
YOUNG-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-EASTLAND-COMANCHE-MILLS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRAHAM...OLNEY...BRECKENRIDGE...
MINERAL WELLS...CISCO...EASTLAND...RANGER...GORMAN...COMANCHE...
DE LEON...GOLDTHWAITE
848 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2009

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...
...FREEZE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM CST THIS MORNING...

THE FREEZE WARNING FOR LAST NIGHT WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM CST THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9
AM CST WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING IN A FEW LOCATIONS FLIRTED WITH THE
FREEZING MARK. ANOTHER MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS THAT THE SEASONS FIRST EPISODE OF SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
KILL SENSITIVE PLANTS AND RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO PROTECT ANY
TENDER VEGETATION
Last edited by CaptinCrunch on Wed Dec 02, 2009 3:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The 2009/10 North Texas Halloween Analog and Winter Outlook

#9 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Nov 18, 2009 9:19 am

THERE ARE A LOT OF DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS
CONCERNING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE SYSTEM ONSHORE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY BUT DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
THIS. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND QUICKLY MOVES THE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE MID-SECTION OF THE CONUS AND DRIVES COLD FRONT THROUGH
ON MONDAY WITH LITTLE PRECIP. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE
SYSTEM AND DIGS THE TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WOULD SEND A COLD FRONT BACKED WITH CANADIAN AIR INTO NORTH
TEXAS ON TUESDAY. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE OF THE TWO MODELS FOR THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

AN EARLY LOOK INTO THE THANKSGIVING FORECAST SHOWS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH NO PRECIP.
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Re: The 2009/10 North Texas Halloween Analog and Winter Outlook

#10 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Nov 19, 2009 9:34 am

A NICE AND SEASONAL WEEKEND IS IN STORE. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM DUE EARLY IN THE WEEK.
YESTERDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE ABOUT A DAY APART AND DIFFERENT
ON STRENGTHS AND PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH. FOR NOW...THE GFS HAS
WON THE BATTLE WITH THE ECMWF COMING MORE INTO LINE. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO STAY UP IN THE PLAINS...BUT WILL SEND A WEAK FRONT
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT MONDAY. MOISTURE RETURN WILL LIKELY
NOT HAPPEN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THE BEST ENERGY WILL STAY TO
THE N AND NE. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR MON/TUE BUT KEPT 20S IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL FOLLOW DIRECTLY BEHIND THE EARLY WEEK ONE AND
SEND ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR INTO NORTH TEXAS JUST IN
TIME FOR THANKSGIVING. THIS FROPA LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE IN PLACE.


Right now we are still few weeks away from the El Nino patteren that we saw in Sept and Oct. Till then expect this type of up and down weather pattern to continue.
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#11 Postby CaptinCrunch » Fri Nov 20, 2009 9:49 am

PRECIP WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...BUT STILL EXPECT
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER FOR AREAS MAINLY EAST OF I-35
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS STILL SCHEDULED TO MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT MONDAY. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE SCARCE AND WILL JUST HOLD ONTO THE 20/30 POPS.
ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO KEEP THANKSGIVING SEASONABLE.
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Re: The 2009/10 North Texas Halloween Analog and Winter Outlook

#12 Postby CaptinCrunch » Sat Nov 28, 2009 1:47 pm

THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE PUSHING
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL OCCUR ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAIN CONTINUES TO BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA ON SUNDAY...THE
UPPER LEVEL FRONT /850-700 MB/ WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY WHEN
IT GETS A PUSH FROM A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF
THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL HELP BRING A VERY BRIEF END TO
THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT.

SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY TRANSGRESSES THE REGION. THE TEMPERATURES
WITHIN THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE COLDEST WE
HAVE SEEN THIS SEASON AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY DOWN IN THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS
OVERHEAD...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS. WILL MENTION THIS
WORDING IN THE ZONES BUT DO NOT EXPECT MAJOR IMPACTS AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AND ANY SNOW WILL MELT AS IT REACHES THE
GROUND.

ANOTHER DRY SURFACE FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK CHILLY AND BELOW NORMAL.
FREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON A FEW NIGHTS THIS WEEK IN VARYING
LOCATIONS BUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK.
HAVE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEEK.


Think models are under cutting the cold edge of the front.
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#13 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Nov 30, 2009 1:10 pm

Well the El Nino machine is starting to get cranked up again, just about the time I thought it would. Now can the really cold air make it down this far south to play with the upper Lows? Looking over the models I think the cold air will make it, but not as far south as the models show, and the othe factor is the upper low coming across the southern part of the state. I think the upper low will track a little farther north than models show, but the cold air wont factor in till to late. Yes it's going to be close for the northwestern counties, but I think the folks out west will see the winter precip this time around. Models do show the freezing line south of DFW, but dew points will keep it from getting below freezing, I think it is safe to say that 32-33 will be as cold as it gets, but the bulk of the precip will have passes by then. Snow/rain mix for the Red River counties isn't out of the question, neither is it out around the Lubbuck area.

This will only be the start to what I see as a more unsettled weather patteren shapping up for NCTX in the weeks ahead. I still dont see any real winter precip for DFW just yet, but I do think we will see it before the months out, and yes I think peeps are going to wish they were in Cowboys Stadium for the Cotton Bowl this year. :froze: LOL
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Re: The 2009/10 North Texas Halloween Analog and Winter Outlook

#14 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Nov 30, 2009 6:40 pm

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK DIRECTLY OVER
NORTH TEXAS WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT FILTERING INTO NORTH
TEXAS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. WITH WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL
THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR SNOW MIXING WITH
RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. HAVE EXPANDED THE
PREVIOUS AREA OF SNOW MENTION TO A LINE ALONG AND WEST OF
GAINESVILLE TO WEATHERFORD TO LOMETA
. ALTHOUGH FREEZING AND NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THIS AREA AT THE SAME
TIME...THE GROUND AND SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO
WARM FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM ANY SNOW.


AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY...A BROAD
TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN THE PLAINS ALLOWING COLD CANADIAN AIR TO
PENETRATE INTO NORTH TEXAS. THIS MEANS THAT COLD TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND NEAR 50 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY SEEING A FREEZE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER MUCH OF THE
UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
WARM...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE LOW
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFERING IN THEIR SOLUTIONS.
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Re: The 2009/10 North Texas Halloween Analog and Winter Outlook

#15 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Dec 01, 2009 10:01 am

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2009/
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BEGINNING TO ENTER WEST TEXAS AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS RESULTING IN THICKENING CLOUD COVER
AND ALSO AREAS OF RAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. STRENGTHENING MID
LEVEL FLOW ATOP THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL INTENSIFY ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVER NORTH
TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG
A SAN ANGELO TO SHREVEPORT LINE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
MEANS DRY SLOT WILL WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH THE STEADY
RAIN ENDING IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. RAIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20 WHERE
WRAP AROUND PRECIP CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROWAL. RAIN
AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH OVER THE WHOLE AREA ARE EXPECTED.

PRECIP TYPE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE MAINLY RAIN...AS
THE LOW LEVELS ARE JUST TOO WARM FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE
UPPER LOW...AND IF ANYTHING ARE A TAD WARMER WITH THERMAL
PROFILES. THE MID-UPPER LEVELS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT
FREEZING LEVELS OF 2000-4000 FEET WILL MAKE IT TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
SURVIVE THE TRIP TO THE SURFACE. COOLING OF THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER
CAN OCCUR AS LATENT HEAT IS ABSORBED FROM MELTING SNOW...BUT THIS
OFTEN REQUIRES A LOT OF MELTING SNOW. WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST
OF RAIN/SNOW MIX WEST OF A LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO WEATHERFORD TO
SHERMAN...WHERE THE HEAVIEST CLOUD-LEVEL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR. NO ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE IF
PRECIP IS HEAVY ENOUGH...A LOCALIZED CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AND SOME
BRIEF ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED SURFACES MAY OCCUR.


AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE/BROAD/DEEP TROUGH OVER THE US BY
THURSDAY WILL SEND A PIECE OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. THIS COLD AIRMASS IS NOT ANYTHING TOO UNUSUAL FOR THE TIME
OF THE YEAR...BUT IT WILL CERTAINLY KNOCK TEMPS DOWN WELL BELOW
NORMAL. WHILE THE MOS HAS COOLED SEVERAL DEGREES DURING THE LAST
DAY...BELIEVE IT IS STILL NOT COLD ENOUGH. WILL FORECAST A FREEZE
OVER MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS WED/THU/FRI NIGHTS...AND HIGHS GENERALLY
STUCK IN THE 40S.

UNFORTUNATELY THE FORECAST GETS MORE COMPLICATED THAN JUST TEMPS.
ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A PV ANOMALY OVER MANITOBA DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH. AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...IT
WILL INDUCE A RESPONSE IN THE ISENTROPIC SURFACES OVER OUR
REGION...WITH UPGLIDE ORGANIZING. THERMAL PROFILES ARE CERTAINLY
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BY THIS TIME...BUT MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
QUESTIONABLE. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE AND THUS HAS
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...BUT THE CANADIAN IS DRY. NAM/ECMWF/SREF
OFFER A REASONABLE COMPROMISE...AND THUS HAVE RELUCTANTLY ADDED
SNOW TO THE FORECAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW SINCE THE MODELS DID NOT SHOW THIS YESTERDAY...SO WILL KEEP
POPS LOW AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-20. THIS
REGION APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY ACCUMULATING
SNOW BECAUSE OF BETTER MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. AGAIN...I WANT TO STRESS THAT
THIS FORECAST IS OF VERY LOW CONFIDENCE...AND SNOWFALL IS NOT A
CERTAINTY AT THIS POINT BUT ONLY A POSSIBILITY.


FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...FORECAST LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPS
GRADUALLY MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL.
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Re: The 2009/10 North Texas Halloween Analog and Winter Outlook

#16 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Dec 01, 2009 11:40 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1019 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2009

.UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR WEST TEXAS AND A
LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS SPREADING ACROSS TEXAS IN ADVANCE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. ADJUSTED POPS SOME THIS MORNING BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND EXPANDED THE AREA TO THE EAST WHERE SOME
LIGHT AREAS OF RAIN ARE STARTING TO SHOW ON RADAR. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT WAS TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
ADJUSTED THE VALUES UP 1-3 DEGREES IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS BASED ON
LATEST HOURLY TRENDS. THICK CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL NOT ALLOW
MUCH MORE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IN
THE 925-850 MB LAYER EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 WILL HELP RAISE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THAT AREA. ON
AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE ANOTHER 4-7
DEGREES FROM CURRENT VALUES.

FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING AND ON FRIDAY
.


May see some wet snow mixed in with the rain, but this still looks to be a non winter wx event for the DFW area. For the westeren and Red Counties you still have the chance to see light snow with a .25 to 2" accumulation on grassy surfaces
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#17 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Dec 02, 2009 9:23 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
640 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009

.UPDATE...
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE NW CWA AS TEMPS
HAVE COOLED DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING. PRECIPITATION BAND IS EXTENSIVE
AND IS RESULTING IN CONTINUED MODERATE SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER
MONTAGUE...WISE COUNTIES. UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE SOME
ACCUMULATION OF 1 INCH OR SO IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE COUNTIES.
MOST OF THE SNOW IS MELTING ON CONTACT OF ROAD SURFACES...BUT WE
ARE GETTING SOME REPORTS OF SLUSH IN A FEW SPOTS. VERY CLOSE TO
DOING A 2-3 COUNTY WINTER ADVISORY...BUT NO DECISION MADE YET DUE
TO LOCALIZED NATURE. OTHERWISE...THE SNOW LINE IS KNOCKING ON THE
NW DOOR OF THE METROPLEX...AND IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT CHANGE OVER
WILL OCCUR IN METROPLEX WITH CONTINUED PRECIPITATION WORKING ON
COOLING THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES. UPDATES SENT.
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Re: The 2009/10 North Texas Halloween Analog and Winter Outlook

#18 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Dec 02, 2009 1:16 pm

Freeze Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
359 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009



TXZ092>095-103>107-118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175-022100-
/O.NEW.KFWD.FZ.W.0006.091203T0900Z-091203T1500Z/
COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-DENTON-COLLIN-HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-
TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-JOHNSON-ELLIS-
HENDERSON-HILL-NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAINESVILLE...SHERMAN...DENISON...
BONHAM...PARIS...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...
THE COLONY...PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...
SULPHUR SPRINGS...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...
TERRELL...KAUFMAN...FORNEY...WILLS POINT...CANTON...
GRAND SALINE...VAN...EDGEWOOD...EMORY...POINT...EAST TAWAKONI...
CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...
GLENN HEIGHTS...ATHENS...GUN BARREL CITY...HILLSBORO...
CORSICANA...TEAGUE...FAIRFIELD...PALESTINE...KILLEEN...TEMPLE...
FORT HOOD...WACO...MARLIN...MEXIA...GROESBECK...BUFFALO...
CENTERVILLE...JEWETT...OAKWOOD...CAMERON...ROCKDALE...HEARNE...
FRANKLIN...CALVERT
359 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY.

A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING FOR MANY LOCATIONS IN NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE
THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS THAT THE SEASONS FIRST EPISODE OF SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
KILL SENSITIVE PLANTS AND RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO PROTECT TENDER
VEGETATION. AUTOMATIC SPRINKLER SYSTEMS SHOULD ALSO BE TURNED OFF
TO AVOID CREATING ICE PATCHES ON NEARBY ROADS...DRIVEWAYS...AND
SIDEWALKS.
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#19 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Dec 02, 2009 3:43 pm

REGARDING THIS MORNING/S SNOWFALL EVENT...THE SNOWFALL BEGAN AT
ABOUT 5 AM THIS MORNING IN MONTAGUE COUNTY AND CONTINUED
PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST FROM THERE. LIGHT RAIN DID OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS
SNOW AREA AND AS THE RAIN OCCURRED...TEMPERATURES DROPPED FROM
VALUES IN THE 40S TO NEAR FREEZING. THIS RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP
FACILITATED THE CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. IN GENERAL...SNOW
WAS OBSERVED WEST OF A LINE FROM SHERMAN...TO WAXAHACHIE...TO
EASTLAND. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES WERE GENERALLY
LESS THAN AN INCH BUT JACKSBORO ACCUMULATED CLOSE TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW AND MONTAGUE COUNTY REPORTED AN INCH AND A HALF.
:froze:
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Re: The 2009/10 North Texas Halloween Analog and Winter Outlook

#20 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Dec 02, 2009 3:53 pm

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1143 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-030800-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
1143 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009

...SNOW EXPECTED FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON
FRIDAY. WITH A COLD AIRMASS ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION...THE POTENT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER AREAS OF SNOW ON FRIDAY.

FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING OVER FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...GENERALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF A BOWIE TO WEATHERFORD TO LAMPASAS LINE. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

HEAVIER SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE MID MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
PERIODS OF FLURRIES AND SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN THE IMMEDIATE DALLAS FORT WORTH METRO AREA.

LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CISCO TO HILLSBORO TO
PALESTINE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT WITNESSING ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL...WITH AROUND ONE INCH POSSIBLE. ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY
RECEIVE UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW.


THIS EVENT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE
SNOWFALL...AS WELL AS EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS MAY CHANGE OVER THE
COMING DAYS. PLEASE KEEP UPDATED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND ANY
POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN FORT WORTH.
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