The 2009/10 North Texas Halloween Analog and Winter Outlook

[CaptinCrunch]

Never jump on the snow train till it's snowing!! Models are in fact drier and DFW should see nothing more than a flurry or two, but thanks for playing...lol

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
256 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION.
MODELS HAVE COME IN SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER TODAY...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
THE SNOW TOTALS DOWN ACCORDINGLY. THERE WILL BE LIFT IN THE MID
AND UPPER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FRIDAY...AND IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW. HOWEVER...THE NORTH FLOW AT LOW LEVELS
WILL KEEP REINFORCING THE DRY AIR THE SNOW HAS TO FALL
THROUGH...EVAPORATING MUCH OF THE PRECIP BEFORE IT HITS THE
GROUND. THE BEST LIFT AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOUTHEAST OF NORTH TEXAS...BUT SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD SEE
BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH ACCUMULATIONS...JUST ENOUGH TO
MAKE THE ROADS SLICK.

FARTHER NORTH...SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD TAPER OFF TO
ISOLATED FLURRIES NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20/30 CORRIDOR. IF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING MODELS SHOW FURTHER DRYING IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...WE MAY SEE ONLY CLOUDS AND VIRGA IN NORTH TEXAS.

SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES MAY SEE A COOL RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA...BUT MOISTURE IS
TOO LIMITED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. THE GFS FORECASTS RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW NEXT WEDNESDAY...BUT THE ECMWF HAS THIS COLD
FRONT MUCH DRIER AND THUS HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN IN
THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES...
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS...ALL OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD BE
BELOW FREEZING AGAIN WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED SATURDAY. HIGHS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL REACH THE 50S...WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

[CaptinCrunch]

TODAYS WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE
FALLING SNOW AND THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC HAS DEPICTED MID LEVEL PRECIP
ALL NIGHT...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SNOW IS ONLY
REACHING THE GROUND UNDER THE MORE ENHANCED ACTIVITY /OVER
MIDLAND AND NOW SAN ANGELO/. FOR NORTH TEXAS...CURRENT RADAR ECHOES
INDICATE THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT WE ARE STILL TOO DRY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS FOR ANY PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND.

HOWEVER...AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...WE EXPECT THE LOWER LEVELS
TO SATURATE A BIT AND WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN RADAR ECHOES
BETWEEN SAN ANGELO AND COMANCHE. WE HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH
WITH POPS TODAY. HAVE EVEN PULLED AREA OF FLURRIES FROM THE RED
RIVER...WITH THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR HAVING THE BEST CHANCE AT
ISOLATED FLURRIES THIS MORNING. IT IS LIKELY THAT ANY FLURRIES
WILL BE OUT OF AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 BY THIS AFTERNOON.

WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE DRY AIR THIS MORNING...ACCUMULATIONS
OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL. MOST LOCATIONS
FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO PALESTINE WILL LIKELY SEE AROUND HALF AN
INCH...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS /ALONG THE FAR CWA BORDER...
ESPECIALLY FROM LAMPASAS TO KILLEEN/ HAVING THE OPPORTUNITY TO
APPROACH ONE INCH ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD. FOR
TODAY...READINGS WILL MOVE LITTLE FROM CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 ALONG THE RED RIVER...TO THE
LOW TO MID 30S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S AREA WIDE...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS /ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA/. WITH DRY AIR...LIGHT WINDS...AND
CLEAR SKIES...THE SET UP IS CONDUCIVE FOR PLUNGING TEMPERATURES.
TEMPS WILL MAKE A RUN FOR RECORD READINGS. THE RECORD LOW FOR DEC
5 AT DFW IS 18 DEGREES SET IN 1950 AND 22 DEGREES AT WACO SET IN
1950. THE METROPLEX MAY NOT DROP FAR ENOUGH FOR A RECORD LOW...
BUT WACO WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE BALLPARK.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TOMORROW INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE FAIRLY MODERATE FOR THE FOLLOWING DAYS
WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOVER IN THE 30S AND 40S.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL WINTER EVENT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY LOOKS LESS
LIKELY WITH TODAYS MODEL RUNS. THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
UPPER LOW...WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES...AND MOVES THE PRECIP OUT
WELL BEFORE ANY COLDER TEMPS APPROACH THE AREA. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MODELS...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION OF
ONLY LIQUID PRECIP IN THE FORECAST.

No winter weather for DFW till around the 20th, as I for see it now.

[iorange55]

TODAYS WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE
FALLING SNOW AND THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC HAS DEPICTED MID LEVEL PRECIP
ALL NIGHT...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SNOW IS ONLY
REACHING THE GROUND UNDER THE MORE ENHANCED ACTIVITY /OVER
MIDLAND AND NOW SAN ANGELO/. FOR NORTH TEXAS...CURRENT RADAR ECHOES
INDICATE THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT WE ARE STILL TOO DRY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS FOR ANY PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND.

HOWEVER...AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...WE EXPECT THE LOWER LEVELS
TO SATURATE A BIT AND WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN RADAR ECHOES
BETWEEN SAN ANGELO AND COMANCHE. WE HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH
WITH POPS TODAY. HAVE EVEN PULLED AREA OF FLURRIES FROM THE RED
RIVER...WITH THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR HAVING THE BEST CHANCE AT
ISOLATED FLURRIES THIS MORNING. IT IS LIKELY THAT ANY FLURRIES
WILL BE OUT OF AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 BY THIS AFTERNOON.

WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE DRY AIR THIS MORNING...ACCUMULATIONS
OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL. MOST LOCATIONS
FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO PALESTINE WILL LIKELY SEE AROUND HALF AN
INCH...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS /ALONG THE FAR CWA BORDER...
ESPECIALLY FROM LAMPASAS TO KILLEEN/ HAVING THE OPPORTUNITY TO
APPROACH ONE INCH ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD. FOR
TODAY...READINGS WILL MOVE LITTLE FROM CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 ALONG THE RED RIVER...TO THE
LOW TO MID 30S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S AREA WIDE...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS /ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA/. WITH DRY AIR...LIGHT WINDS...AND
CLEAR SKIES...THE SET UP IS CONDUCIVE FOR PLUNGING TEMPERATURES.
TEMPS WILL MAKE A RUN FOR RECORD READINGS. THE RECORD LOW FOR DEC
5 AT DFW IS 18 DEGREES SET IN 1950 AND 22 DEGREES AT WACO SET IN
1950. THE METROPLEX MAY NOT DROP FAR ENOUGH FOR A RECORD LOW...
BUT WACO WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE BALLPARK.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TOMORROW INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE FAIRLY MODERATE FOR THE FOLLOWING DAYS
WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOVER IN THE 30S AND 40S.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL WINTER EVENT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY LOOKS LESS
LIKELY WITH TODAYS MODEL RUNS. THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
UPPER LOW...WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES...AND MOVES THE PRECIP OUT
WELL BEFORE ANY COLDER TEMPS APPROACH THE AREA. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MODELS...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION OF
ONLY LIQUID PRECIP IN THE FORECAST.

No winter weather for DFW till around the 20th, as I for see it now.

I still think we need to watch that next week though. Looks like one of those that could change just like that given how strong everything is in that whole scenario. The cold front, the low.

[CaptinCrunch]

.UPDATE...
FRONTOGENETICAL/MID LVL ENHANCEMENT CONTINUES TO OCCUR SOUTH OF
I-20...BUT STILL AWAITING LOW LEVEL DRY/COLD AIR TO SATURATE DOWN
AND EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT HAPPENING AND SOME SNOWFALL
UNDER AN INCH TO OCCUR OVER THE CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY AREA
OVER THE SRN THIRD OF NORTH TX BY MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SO
FAR...NOTHING BUT A FEW FLURRIES OCCURRING.

OTHERWISE...MAIN UPDATE REASONING WAS TO RAISE TEMPS SLIGHTLY OVER
THE ADVISORY AREA PER CURRENT OBSERVATION REASONING...BUT DON`T
EXPECT THEM TO GET OUT OF THE MID-UPPER 30S. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR
OVER THE N/NW ZONES BY AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP TEMPS RISING TO
AROUND 40...OR LOWER 40S WITH SOME INSOLATION...DESPITE DEPTH OF
CURRENT/COLD POLAR AIRMASS.

[CaptinCrunch]

.UPDATE...
HAVE ENDED WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR SNOW ALONG/NW OF A LAMPASAS TO WACO
LINE...AS CEILINGS ARE RISING AND 15 MILE-WIDE OR SO BAND OF MODERATE
SNOW HAS MOVE ESE OF THIS AREA. ONLY RECEIVED ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD
OF AN INCH OF SNOW ON GRASSY AREAS WITH NO ROAD PROBLEMS. A FEW FLURRIES
MAY STILL LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HRS. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY UNTIL
MID-AFTERNOON FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ADVISORY OVER SE COUNTIES AND
MAKE A DECISION THEN WHETHER TO CANCEL OR CONTINUE UNTIL EXPIRATION
TIME.

[CaptinCrunch]

Looking ahead to the possibility of a, do I dare say it "White Christmas" for parts of North Texas? Back on Friday I said no winter weather type precip till around the 20th, well looking that far ahead never really pays off, but I'm seeing to many indicators from varying sources that say the December time frame of the 20th thru the 1st of January could very well be very cold and wet for much of North Texas.

I didn’t buy into the snow event for DFW last week (Friday) because I didn’t see what I needed to see in the models or the atmospheric weather pattern (means I didn’t see where the moisture was going to come from) to support a NTX snow fall. Like last week the energy form the upper low and the timing of the cold air are not aligned enough to get any winter precip this week.

Current trends in the weather pattern show a zonal flow across the U.S. taking shape by late week and lasting 7 to 10 days, after that we will transition to a -AO/-NAO type pattern by the December 20th time frame with a western ridge/eastern trough setting up allowing for the same type of –AO pattern we saw for much of September and October. With early massive arctic high’s building over NW Canada and the formation of a western ridge/eastern trough one can only expect for the arctic air to spill south into the lower 48, combined with the energy of upper lows either coming off the Baja of Mexico or riding up under the trough combining to give us here in NTX our first winter storm of the season just in time for Christmas.

Like I said long range forecast are a PITA to hold on too, but I think this 8 sec bull called “White Christmas” is worth riding…LOL

[CaptinCrunch]

Well the cold is coming and when it gets here it's sticking around for awhile. Timing of the arctic airmass is later than expecting and looks to be in here Christmas Eve or early Christmas Day, with highs hoovering around the freezing mark and lows in the lower 20's. The weekend looks to be slightly colder with highs in the upper 20's and may even see teens for lows. Several arctic fronts will drop down over the week through New Years and yes the chance for winter precip is still there but more for the new year.

Several waves will swind around the upper high and we could see a few flurries Christmas day and night, but better chance of something by Tuesday 29th. The upper air patteren favors a stormy January with arctic intrusions.

[Big O]

Well the cold is coming and when it gets here it's sticking around for awhile. Timing of the arctic airmass is later than expecting and looks to be in here Christmas Eve or early Christmas Day, with highs hoovering around the freezing mark and lows in the lower 20's. The weekend looks to be slightly colder with highs in the upper 20's and may even see teens for lows. Several arctic fronts will drop down over the week through New Years and yes the chance for winter precip is still there but more for the new year.

Several waves will swind around the upper high and we could see a few flurries Christmas day and night, but better chance of something by Tuesday 29th. The upper air patteren favors a stormy January with arctic intrusions.

Which models and/or indices are showing wintery precipitation in the new year?

What about 12/29? What are you relying on for snow on this date? Is this strictly for north Texas?

What pattern are you referring to that favors a stormy January with arctic intrusions? Do you really think the pattern we are in is going to lock in through January? How long into January? It's my understanding that the NAO is going to go neutral to positive in early January? Not sure about the AO, EPO, or PNA.

[CaptinCrunch]

Well the cold is coming and when it gets here it's sticking around for awhile. Timing of the arctic airmass is later than expecting and looks to be in here Christmas Eve or early Christmas Day, with highs hoovering around the freezing mark and lows in the lower 20's. The weekend looks to be slightly colder with highs in the upper 20's and may even see teens for lows. Several arctic fronts will drop down over the week through New Years and yes the chance for winter precip is still there but more for the new year.

Several waves will swind around the upper high and we could see a few flurries Christmas day and night, but better chance of something by Tuesday 29th. The upper air patteren favors a stormy January with arctic intrusions.

Which models and/or indices are showing wintery precipitation in the new year?

What about 12/29? What are you relying on for snow on this date? Is this strictly for north Texas?

What pattern are you referring to that favors a stormy January with arctic intrusions? Do you really think the pattern we are in is going to lock in through January? How long into January? It's my understanding that the NAO is going to go neutral to positive in early January? Not sure about the AO, EPO, or PNA.

My outlook is for the NTX area, and the possible precip is for around the 1st and/or 2nd on January. The patteren has been set since early fall with periods of storminess followed by calm weather, and after a stormy first part of Dec, followed by a calm middle, things look to swing back to a stormy patteren. But January and February in El Nino years trend to be cold and wet (for NTX).

[CaptinCrunch]

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST MON DEC 21 2009/
ONE MORE NICE RELATIVELY WARM DAY IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS THEN
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY
AND THINGS TURN COLDER JUST IN TIME FOR CHRISTMAS. VERY DYNAMIC
STORM SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE US THIS
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM PRESSURE FALLS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
REGION. WESTERN GULF WATERS ARE FAIRLY DRY ATTM...BUT MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE QUICK THROUGH TUESDAY WITH RAIN BECOMING LIKELY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT
TUESDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN A
GOOD COVERAGE OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
THE ARKLATEX.

DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS AND DEEP LAYER FORCING OVERSPREADS THE AREA AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...A CORRIDOR OF 700-1000J/KG OF SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS GENERALLY EAST OF I-35 BY EARLY
AFTERNOON JUST AS THE STRONGER FORCING MOVES MOVES IN. IT IS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY THAT SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ROTATING STORMS AND TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE AND MOVE EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP ENDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WILL
HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT
THE GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY BY SEVERAL DEGREES. AS
FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP CHANCES...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT BEFORE THE REALLY COLD AIR MAKES IT INTO
NORTH TEXAS...SO WILL KEEP ANY LINGERING PRECIP AS ALL RAIN FOR
NOW. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COULD
WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO THE RED RIVER COUNTIES DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AND FALL AS SNOW...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL BE WELL TO THE
NORTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

FORECAST REMAINS DRY BEYOND EARLY THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

[CaptinCrunch]

Looking ahead to the possibility of a, do I dare say it "White Christmas" for parts of North Texas? Back on Friday I said no winter weather type precip till around the 20th, well looking that far ahead never really pays off, but I'm seeing to many indicators from varying sources that say the December time frame of the 20th thru the 1st of January could very well be very cold and wet for much of North Texas.

I didn’t buy into the snow event for DFW last week (Friday) because I didn’t see what I needed to see in the models or the atmospheric weather pattern (means I didn’t see where the moisture was going to come from) to support a NTX snow fall. Like last week the energy form the upper low and the timing of the cold air are not aligned enough to get any winter precip this week.

Current trends in the weather pattern show a zonal flow across the U.S. taking shape by late week and lasting 7 to 10 days, after that we will transition to a -AO/-NAO type pattern by the December 20th time frame with a western ridge/eastern trough setting up allowing for the same type of –AO pattern we saw for much of September and October. With early massive arctic high’s building over NW Canada and the formation of a western ridge/eastern trough one can only expect for the arctic air to spill south into the lower 48, combined with the energy of upper lows either coming off the Baja of Mexico or riding up under the trough combining to give us here in NTX our first winter storm of the season just in time for Christmas.

Like I said long range forecast are a PITA to hold on too, but I think this 8 sec bull called “White Christmas” is worth riding…LOL

Looks pretty good now don't it...lmao....posted on the 8th of Dec

[Ntxw]

Kudos!

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1001 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

.UPDATE...
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE FOLLOWS THE TRENDS OF VERY AGGRESSIVE 18Z RUNS
SO HAVE MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF N TX WITH
A WINTER WX ADVISORY A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. SEE WSWFWD FOR LATEST
INFORMATION.

POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATIONS WITH COLDER AIR NOW MORE
LIKELY TO MAKE IT INTO NORTH TEXAS BEFORE MOISTURE PULLS OFF TO
THE EAST. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES SIGNIFICANT WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH MODERATE LIFT IN THE 700-400MB LAYER...
WITH SATURATION IN THE FAVORABLE AREA FOR SNOW PRODUCTION.
ALTHOUGH INDICATIONS ARE THAT INSTABILITY IS NOT QUITE AS
IMPRESSIVE ABOVE THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AS WE WOULD
LIKE IT TO BE...SNOW IS STILL LIKELY. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND
STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES...THEREFORE
WARRANTING A WARNING. WITH AIR TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND SOIL
TEMPS QUITE WARM...ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO AREAS
WHERE SNOW BANDS SET UP.

ALSO...BUMPED UP START TIME OF WIND ADVISORY TO 12Z TO COINCIDE
WITH WINTER STORM WARNING.

[CaptinCrunch]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
249 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009

TXZ091>093-100>103-115>117-129-241700-
/O.EXT.KFWD.WS.W.0002.091224T1200Z-091225T0000Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-EASTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...DECATUR...
BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...
BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...CISCO...
EASTLAND...RANGER...GORMAN
249 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON.

A POWERFUL WINTER STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH
AREAS OF RAIN TRANSITIONING TO AREAS OF SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST.
SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH AVERAGE ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE WARNING AREA. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OF NEAR 5
INCHES WILL OCCUR GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BRECKENRIDGE
TO GAINESVILLE.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
VISIBILITIES BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

THESE CONDITIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR AT TIMES
IMPOSSIBLE. EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED IF YOU MUST TRAVEL.

[CaptinCrunch]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
939 PM CST MON DEC 28 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH TEXAS FROM 9 AM TUESDAY
UNTIL 9AM WEDNESDAY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KILLEEN...
HILLSBORO...SULPHUR SPRINGS...

.SNOW WILL ENTER NORTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY MORNING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE
FROM NEAR TWO INCHES IN THE WEST TO A HALF INCH IN THE NORTHEAST.
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON SNOWFALL WILL MELT EXCEPT IN WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER. BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES WILL LIKELY REFREEZE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY SO CONTINUED
CAUTION IS ADVISED.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>121-129>134-141>145-156>159-291100-
/O.CON.KFWD.WW.Y.0004.091229T1500Z-091230T1500Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-ELLIS-
COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-
MCLENNAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...
DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...
THE COLONY...PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...
SULPHUR SPRINGS...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...
BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...
KAUFMAN...FORNEY...CISCO...EASTLAND...RANGER...GORMAN...
STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...
CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...
GLENN HEIGHTS...COMANCHE...DE LEON...GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...
HICO...CLIFTON...MERIDIAN...VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO...LAMPASAS...
COPPERAS COVE...GATESVILLE...KILLEEN...TEMPLE...FORT HOOD...WACO
939 PM CST MON DEC 28 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO
9 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM
TUESDAY TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY.

SNOW WILL ENTER NORTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY MORNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR
TWO INCHES IN THE WEST TO A HALF INCH IN THE NORTHEAST. MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON SNOWFALL WILL MELT EXCEPT IN WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL LIKELY
REFREEZE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY SO CONTINUED CAUTION IS ADVISED.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND PLAN ON SOME TRAVEL DELAYS.

[CaptinCrunch]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
541 AM CST MON JAN 4 2010

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-042200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
541 AM CST MON JAN 4 2010

...ARCTIC AIRMASS TO BRING MUCH COLDER WEATHER TO NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS
WEEK...

A FRIGID AIRMASS WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF NORTHWESTERN CANADA AND
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE SOUTH AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTH TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW FREEZING AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN NORTH TEXAS.

WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES LOOKING LIKELY
AT THIS TIME RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO BEGIN PREPARATIONS TO
MITIGATE SUB FREEZING WEATHER. A HARD FREEZE CAN CAUSE DAMAGE TO
EXPOSED WATER PIPES AND CAN DAMAGE SENSITIVE VEGETATION. OUTDOOR
PETS WILL ALSO REQUIRE PROTECTION FROM THIS ARCTIC OUTBREAK. WIND
CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR BELOW
THURSDAY MORNING...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. EXTRA
PROTECTIVE CLOTHING WILL BE NEEDED FOR ANYONE EXPECTED TO BE
OUTDOORS AT THESE TIMES...ESPECIALLY CHILDREN GOING TO SCHOOL.

THERE IS ALSO PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL AS RAIN BEFORE THE DEEPER ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW
FLURRIES BEFORE ENDING THURSDAY MORNING. NO ACCUMULATION OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ANY ROADWAYS THAT REMAIN
WET AS THE ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN WILL LIKELY FREEZE OVER CAUSING
SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADS EVEN THOUGH NO PRECIPITATION IS FALLING.

FURTHER DETAILS ON ANY POTENTIAL FREEZING PRECIPITATION AND THE
DURATION OF THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE PROVIDED AS THE
EVENT NEARS AND THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE CLEAR. STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...OR VISIT US ON THE WEB
AT WEATHER.GOV/FORTWORTH FOR THE LATEST FORECAST DETAILS.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW TX

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2010/
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THIS PACKAGE. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF NORTH TEXAS.

AFTER SYSTEM PULLS EAST SATURDAY...HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED ALL
NEXT WEEK. WARMEST MORNINGS LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SOUTH
FLOW AND WARMER AIR PULLED UP FROM THE GULF WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S NORTHWEST AND 50S SOUTHEAST.

THE SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY DOES NOT LOOK AS STRONG TODAY
AS IT DID YESTERDAY...BUT STILL HAVE SOME 60 DEW POINTS IN EASTERN
ZONES AND WE COULD SEE SOME THUNDER.

January thaw is on the way!!

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...PERSISTENT LOW LVL SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING DEEPER GULF MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING US INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
IN THE WAA REGIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE
STRONG UPPER LVL TROUGH LOOKS TO SPREAD LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER NORTH TX INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND COVERAGE ACROSS
THE CWA. AT THE SAME TIME A POLAR VORTEX NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST SENDING A VERY COLD AIRMASS SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS. WITH CYCLOGENESIS ONGOING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE POLAR AIRMASS PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A TIGHT LOW LVL BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKS TO SET
UP JUST NORTHWEST OF NORTH TX BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER
LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH KICKS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY THE
SFC LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE OUT AHEAD OF IT
SENDING THIS BOUNDARY SOUTH THRU NORTH TX AS A STRONG COLD FRONT.
AREAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT
SEEING PRECIPITATION...SO HAVE SPREAD 70 TO 80 POPS OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A RESULT. BASED ON
25/00Z MODEL RUNS THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL OFFERED DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT. THE GFS WAS ABOUT 6
HRS FASTER WITH THE FRONT ON THURSDAY...BUT CHOSE TO BLEND
SOLUTIONS RATHER THAN BASE FORECAST ON ONE OR THE OTHER WITH THE
FRONT STILL 3-4 DAYS OUT.

AS THE POLAR AIRMASS MOVES INTO NORTH TX FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AS
THE LOW LVL AIRMASS LOOKS VERY DRY AT THIS TIME. FOR AREAS NEAR
THE RED RIVER MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO SOME MOISTURE WRAPPED UP
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND OVER THE LOW LVL POLAR
AIRMASS. THESE AREAS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE LIGHT RAIN CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. AT THIS
TIME ONLY A NARROW SATURATED LAYER LOOKS TO HOLD OVER NORTHERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA...SO ANTICIPATE ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO
REMAIN LIGHT AND NOT ACCUMULATE. IF THE SYSTEM WERE TO SINK
FURTHER SOUTH NORTHERN COUNTIES WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED BY THE TROWAL WHICH COULD GIVE SOME AREAS A CHANCE AT
ACCUMULATION. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE...NO OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE INDICATED THIS POSSIBILITY YET SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW LATE ON THURSDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITHOUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IT APPROACHES FOR ANY
SIGNS OF HIGHER IMPACT WINTER WEATHER.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE POLAR AIRMASS WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE
OVER NORTH TX KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
DURING THE PERIOD. THE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH VERY DRY
LOW LVL AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT THIS WILL ALSO SERVE TO BRING
OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND
LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. DURING THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER AS POLAR
HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND AIRMASS BEGINS TO QUICKLY MODIFY
WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

Here's the deal, if you got a 80% chance of rain Thursday with temps starting out in the 50's and then dropping, and a 30% chance of rain Thursday night with temps forecasted to drop below freezing, and have wrap around moisture then why not put a bigger ? on the chance of wintery precip in the forecast? NWS FTW plays to much on the "not going to tell ya side" of things.

[CaptinCrunch]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
424 AM CST WED JAN 27 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER ALL OF NORTH TEXAS. AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD POLAR AIRMASS WILL UNDERCUT THE
RAINFALL FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CAUSE NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO DIP BELOW FREEZING WHILE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL
ALLOWING ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON ELEVATED SURFACES. AS THE COLD AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LIQUID ON THE GROUND WILL
FREEZE AND FALLING PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW.

TXZ091-092-100>102-115-116-271830-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.A.0001.100129T0200Z-100130T0000Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...GRAHAM...
OLNEY...JACKSBORO...DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...BRECKENRIDGE...
MINERAL WELLS
424 AM CST WED JAN 27 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDERCUT BY A STRONG POLAR
AIRMASS LATE THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AS RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ALLOWING FOR
THE ACCUMULATION OF ICE INITIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND
POWER LINES. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ICE
MAY ALSO ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS IN CONTACT WITH THE GROUND.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS THE COLDER
AIR MOVES INTO NORTH TEXAS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. AREAS THAT WILL LIKELY SEE SIGNIFICANT ICING LOOK TO BE
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A MINERAL WELLS TO GAINESVILLE LINE AT
THIS TIME. THESE AREAS MAY SEE UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS AND POWER LINES BEFORE
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES TO FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY MORNING.
WITH NORTH WINDS FORECAST TO BE AT 10 TO 20 MPH...SOME DAMAGE TO
POWER LINES IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. AREA ROADWAYS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME ICY...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA
OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
355 PM CST MON FEB 8 2010

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE
IN THE VICINITY OF HUNTSVILLE. AS THIS LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES
EAST...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S LATER THIS EVENING AND MID 20S DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BEST MOISTURE AND BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME COLD AIR REALLY WORKS INTO
THE AREA...BUT LINGERING CLOUDS AND A FLURRY OR TWO CAN BE RULED
OUT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN
COLD ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL BE QUICK TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
NEXT SYSTEM. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN US WILL
DIG INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASING IN
THE 280-295K LAYER BY LATE WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT
MOST OF THIS WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND...ALLOWING
THE 1000-800MB LAYER TO COOL AS IT SATURATES. DEEP LAYER ASCENT
REALLY INCREASES BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH THERMAL PROFILE
COMPLETELY SATURATED AND BELOW FREEZING...INCLUDING THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE...WHICH IS REQUIRED FOR SNOW PRODUCTION. EXPECT AREAS
OF SNOW TO DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY IN LOCALIZED
AREAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE
MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF
THE WACO AREA.

A COUPLE OF THINGS TO BE CONCERNED WITH...FIRST IS THE S/W ITSELF.
ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES PRIMARILY AN OPEN WAVE...WHICH
WILL BE QUITE FAST MOVING. WHILE THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR KEEPING THE
THERMAL PROFILE COLD...MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE WITH
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN. THE SECOND...AND MORE CONCERNING THING
IS SYSTEM TIMING. IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THIS FEATURE
DOWN...IT WOULD ALLOW FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF IT. THIS WOULD MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO KEEP THE THERMAL
PROFILE SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. NONETHELESS...AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
NORTH TEXAS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS
OVER THE COMING DAYS AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IN AN SPS.

BEYOND THURSDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE UPPER PATTER OVER
THE WESTERN US. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AFTER TAPERING SNOW OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY. TEMP TREND CONTINUES TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.