Virginia and Carolinas storm impact

[Stormavoider]

Not much talk here about this area. The Raleigh AFD is interesting.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=RAH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

[Stephanie]

We've been watching it up here in the Philadelphia area, wondering if it will come far enough north. I don't think it will.

I did mention the storm's potential impact up my way in the Midatlantic thread. However, your part of the Midatlantic versus my part are two very different animals.

[hurricanedude]

A solid foot is likely across SE VA and NE NC... the record snow for any january day(for norfolk) is just over 9 inches.....so this could be a history maker!
***********NOTE**************
none of the top ten snow events for Norfolk on record have been in January...alltime record is just under 19inches in Dec...with several 10-15 inchers in Feb, March april....something to ponder

[brunota2003]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
700 PM EST THU JAN 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION AND THEN MOVE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY BEFORE ACCELERATING AWAY ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
AGAIN OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 700 PM THURSDAY...THE DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY
THROUGH EASTERN NC THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY
MIDNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE STREAM INTO EASTERN NC AHEAD
OF ADVANCING STREAM UPPER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
MIXED BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL LOWER...STRONG
COLD ADVECTION SHOULD OFFSET THIS SO I LOWERED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOWARD THE COLDER MOS NUMBERS.

A FEW RANDOM THOUGHTS ON THE UPCOMING WINTER WEATHER SITUATION:
WHAT IS MAKING THIS FORECAST TOUGH IS THE WARM NOSE WHICH IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS AROUND 750-800 MB ON SATURDAY. THIS IS WHY
THE FORECAST 850-700 MB THICKNESS VALUES ARE HIGHER THAN YOU WOULD
EXPECT IN A SNOW SITUATION. PARTIAL/CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES THAT
HIGH USUALLY SIGNAL A MIXTURE WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. THE
NAM-12 SOUNDINGS IN THE ADVISORY AREA LOOK MAINLY LIKE A
SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE WHICH WOULD CUT DOWN ON SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESS IS CERTAINLY COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SNOW. ANOTHER CONCERN IS FOR THE AREAS JUST SE OF THE
ADVISORY AREA AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT. VERY DRY AIR IN THE
800-900 MB LAYER WILL PROMOTE EVAPOARTIVE COOLING AND IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE EARLY FOR HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR WHICH WILL MAXIMIZE THE COOLING AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BRIEFLY DROP TO AROUND FREEZING. THUS A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW COULD OCCUR IN PLACES AS FAR SOUTH AS
KINSTON AND NEW BERN BEFORE CHANGING TO A COLD RAIN. THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS WERE ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN. THICKNESS VALUES WERE
COLD ENOUGH FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION BUT THE LOW LEVEL ENE FLOW
OFF THE WARMER OCEAN WATERS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. HOPEFULLY THE NEXT MODEL RUN WILL
HELP ADDRESS THESE ISSUES.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...WILL ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH BEGINNING
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE
MODELS INDICATING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE WESTERN GULF
COAST AND MOVING TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY. TRENDS
FOR THE 12Z CYCLE SHOW THE LOW A LITTLE FURTHER OFFSHORE. CRITICAL
THICKNESS PATTERN COUPLED WITH EVAPOARTIVE POTENTIAL GIVEN LOW
AMBIENT DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO THE THREAT OF
WINTRY WEATHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THINK
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL COMMENCE AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON
SATURDAY. HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR FROM ABOUT 06Z TO 16Z OR SO
SATURDAY. THINK THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...FROM GREENE TO TYRRELL
COUNTIES NORTH AND WEST WILL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION AND WILL ISSUE THE WATCH FOR THOSE COUNTIES...WHERE
COMPOSITE OF GFS/NAM AND HPC GUIDANCE SHOWS UPWARDS OF 3 INCHES IN
THESE COUNTIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A BIT OF A WARM NOSE
ALOFT OVER THE WATCH AREA SATURDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO PRECIP
MIXING WITH SLEET...WHICH MAY HOLD THE SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN A BIT.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL BEFORE MIDDAY
SATURDAY...THINK LINGERING LIGHT SNOW COULD CONTINUE ALL THE WAY
TO THE COAST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS A VERY
LIGHT DUSTING POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA TO THE COAST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS EVENT. IF LOW
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE OR STRENGTHENS MORE THAN EXPECTED...THIS
COULD BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

[hcaebmub]

Will a full moon tonight have any impact on the storm approaching the Carolinas?

[NC George]

It's pouring snow here at my location (Ayden, NC.) It only started within the past hour, and I'll willing to bet it's snowing at least an inch an hour.

Update: First burst of snow lasted about an hour, we have about an inch on the ground. Snow turned to sleet for a brief period, now has slacked off to small ice flakes falling.

[hcaebmub]

I heard something today about a possible winter storm for NC again this weekend - perhaps as early as Thursday. They are still up in the air as to if we will get rain or snow or a mix of both.
What is anyone's thoughts on this?

[jabber]

Looks like the hvy stuff will be north and west of Raleigh. Virginia is gonna get hammered.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif

[hcaebmub]

They are calling for snow Friday night into Saturday for the eastern half (coast) of NC?

[hcaebmub]

Ok, No one is paying attention to NC/SC. Started snowing here in E/NC around 5pm. Have about 2 inches and still coming down. They are saying that we could have 4-6. Let me know what you see in SC - even Charleston, SC is getting it/Myrtle Beach!

[NC George]

I've just measured 4" of the white stuff at my location. Totally different type of snow from 2 weeks ago, that was a really wet snow that changed to ice. This snow is light, fluffy and drier.

[hcaebmub]

Ok, So we are going to get another light snow storm tomorrow. This is the most as far as wet weekends/weeks that we have seen since the 1980. Can anyone tell me - with the El Nino that we are seeing now - what will the summer look like - hot, average, below average?

[hcaebmub]

Ok, So now they are saying that we could see something significant Tuesday/Wednesday in NC - depends how far off the coast is goes. Can I get anyone's opinion as to what we may see. I would love for Don to see this one through.

[MGC]

Just talked with one of my sons....he said it was snowing huge flakes in the Tidewater area....MGC