Snow Flurries For FL: Reports of Flurries/sleet in South FL

[gatorcane]

Crazy that is all I have to say. Will it verify?

From the latest National Weather Service discussion:

TO PUT IT BLUNTLY...THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MISERABLE...AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH COLD AND
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE...AS A SIBERIAN SURFACE HIGH
DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN
EVEN MEX GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...AND MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S IN
SOME AREAS. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ADDING MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...THERE IS ALSO A
REMOTE CHANCE THAT SOME SLEET OR ICE PELLETS MAY MIX WITH RAIN IN
THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Gonna be some wild stuff...but we'll have to see if there is moisture...sometimes the models overdo that...that moisture could be the difference between record temperatures and historic snow.

[ronjon]

From HPC this afternoon:

SERIOUS COLD OUTBREAK THREAT FOR FLORIDA AS THE NEXT COLD SURGE
DRIVES DEEP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WITH VERY LOW MID
LEVEL HTS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL TROF THAT HAS A NEAR -4
STANDARDIZED ANOMALY IN ITS HTS AND A -4.5 TO 5 NEG STANDARDIZED
H850 TEMP ANOMALY BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT OF WELL BELOW FREEZING
TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND DEEP INTO CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN
FLORIDA WITH RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS MIAMI. THIS
BEGINS TO RIVAL THE DEC 1989 AND POSSIBLY THE JAN 1977 COLD
OUTBREAKS ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS WILL BE PRECEDED ON DAY 3 BY A COLD
FRONT WITH OVERRUNNING WINTRY TYPE OF PRECIPTAION ACROSS NRN AND
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. LATEST 12 GFS CLOSING OFF OF THE MID LEVEL
CENTER COLD POOL OFFERS A THREAT OF COASTAL SNOW ACROSS NERN FL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

brrr....

[NDG]

Looking really interesting indeed for this weekend across the peninsula, raw gfs numbers want to keep us in the low to mid 30s all day, all the way down to southern FL due to cloud cover and precipitation as a disturbance crosses the GOM into the Atlantic followed by a decrease in the heights, so who knows somebody could even see some flakes before precip ends, and if a freezing layer comes over us just above the surface as moisture moves in there indeed could be some sleet during the day. This is also supported somewhat by the euro. 18z gfs gives 1/2 snow across from Lakeland to south of Orlando for Saturday.

[gatorcane]

NWS Melbourne:

WOULD BE REMISS IF I DIDN`T MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIP BEHIND THE INTIAL FRONTAL SURGE. DATA FROM BOTH GLOBAL
AND MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING TIME SECTIONS/RAOBS INDICATE STRONG
LOW LEVEL ADVECTION OF COLD DRY AIR BENEATH A SATURATED AIR MASS
ABOVE H8-H7 AS THE POS TILT H50 TROUGH LAGS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT.
NEAR THE END OF THE EVENT...BEFORE THE DRY AIR DEEPENS...GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SPIT OUT SOME PRECIP OUT OF THE MID LEVELS AS THE 0C H85
LINE SHIFTS SWD INTO THE NRN/CTRL CWA (BREVARD/OSCEOLA COUNTIES NWD)
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ANY FROZEN P-TYPE COULD FALL AS SOME LIGHT
SNOWFLAKES/GRAUPEL OR SLEET. OF COURSE...TEMP/RH FIELDS WOULD HAVE
TO ALIGN JUST RIGHT FOR THIS TO TAKE PLACE - FOR EXAMPLE COLD AIR
ADVECTION COULD LAG...OR DRY ADVECTION COULD OCCUR STRONGER/FASTER
THAN MODELS ADVERTISE - SO A LOT CAN HAPPEN TO CAUSE MIXED PRECIP
*NOT* TO FALL IN THIS CASE. HOWEVER...FROZEN PRECIP IS NOT AS RARE
IN ECFL (E.G. 2003, 2006 AND 2008) AS ONE MIGHT THINK.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... n=1&max=31

[StormingB81]

Orlando is calling for snow flurries saturday!

[NDG]

12z gfs now forecasting 1" snow for parts of interior central FL for Saturday, raw gfs numbers keep most of central FL in the low 30s all day!

[Scorpion]

Wow, this would be incredible!

[ronjon]

12Z GFS forecasting 0.1 to 0.25 in of QPF in narrow band from Tampa to Orlando at 2 PM Saturday. 850 mb zero line down to Sarasota and Melbourne by then. Based on a 10:1 ratio of liquid to frozen precip, could be 1 to 2 inches of snow along the I-4 corridor from Tampa to Orlando Saturday afternoon with some flurries even down in S FL on Saturday night.

[otowntiger]

12z gfs now forecasting 1" snow for parts of interior central FL for Saturday, raw gfs numbers keep most of central FL in the low 30s all day!

I'd LOVE it to happen, but I don't believe it will. Seems that a lot of things can keep it from happening according to the Melbourne NWS discussion, but hey, it's fun to dream, if they mention it you gotta think it's possible.

[otowntiger]

12z gfs now forecasting 1" snow for parts of interior central FL for Saturday, raw gfs numbers keep most of central FL in the low 30s all day!

I'd LOVE it to happen, but I don't believe it will. Seems that a lot of things can keep it from happening according to the Melbourne NWS discussion, but hey, it's fun to dream, if they mention it you gotta think it's possible.

edit: None of the local mets even mention it as a slight possibility. I guess they don't see it happening either.

[ronjon]

12z gfs now forecasting 1" snow for parts of interior central FL for Saturday, raw gfs numbers keep most of central FL in the low 30s all day!

I'd LOVE it to happen, but I don't believe it will. Seems that a lot of things can keep it from happening according to the Melbourne NWS discussion, but hey, it's fun to dream, if they mention it you gotta think it's possible.

edit: None of the local mets even mention it as a slight possibility. I guess they don't see it happening either.

Our local METS in Tampa have been mentioning the possibility of sleet mixed in or snowflakes saturday morning. However, NWS Tampa Bay AFD just poo-pooed it by saying that while the cold air will be in place, the moisture will be too far south. Lots of things have to fall inline for frozen precip, but I wouldn't discount it yet.

[CrazyC83]

Looking at the grids and forecasts, South Florida seems doubtful at this point. But in a corridor from about Ocala (maybe as far south as Hernando and Lake Counties in the northern suburbs of Orlando) up to St. Augustine seems like a good shot at snow for a few hours Saturday morning.

[Scorpion]

NWS is forecasting mixed precip for Orlando on Saturday.

[otowntiger]

Looking at the grids and forecasts, South Florida seems doubtful at this point. But in a corridor from about Ocala (maybe as far south as Hernando and Lake Counties in the northern suburbs of Orlando) up to St. Augustine seems like a good shot at snow for a few hours Saturday morning.

Now I see the forecast out of our local NWS office (Melbourne) is calling for a 30% chance of rain/sleet/snow before 1pm on Saturday. I guess they are starting to latch on to the idea. Wow! Certainly nothing would stick since the low that night is only forecast to be 34 and the high that day of 44. That would be amazing around here even if we just saw some floating around in the air!

[JonathanBelles]

GFS still forecasting snow at 60hrs and 72 hrs:

[jhpigott]

what are the latest models showing? still a potential for some wintry precip in central/south florida?

[otowntiger]

what are the latest models showing? still a potential for some wintry precip in central/south florida

I'd like to know as well. The NWS just dropped our chances of snow/rain/sleet from 30% yesterday to 20% today.

[ronjon]

NWS Forecast for southern Lake County.

Tonight: A chance of rain showers before midnight, then a chance of rain showers, flurries, and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Wind chill values as low as 26. North northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Saturday: A slight chance of rain showers, flurries, and sleet before 11am, then a slight chance of rain showers between 11am and 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Wind chill values as low as 26. North northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

[jhpigott]

The 12z GFS just came in on NCEP, looks way better than the 00z and 6z for snow in South Florida. More moisture, more cold air advection. Central Florida still looking good too.

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