Least accurate weather forecast

[Scott Patterson]

I don't know if this is just a local phenomenon or is typical to other areas of the nation as well.

Anyway, around here Accuweather is so ridiculously un-accurate that it's almost comical. An average pre-school class could forecast weather better than them.

Today is another prime example:



Last night Accuweather was predicting a high of 32F and a low of 9F for today (Saturday). Today when it was obvious to anyone who has a small amount of intelligence that it wasn't going to get up to 32F, they changed the forecast to 13F and 6F.

Anyway, the actuals: Offically a high of 10F and a low of -22F (I had -27F at the house). They were 22 degrees off for the high and 31 degrees off for the low. This isn't an isolated incidence and happens all the time. The forecast from accuweather is so rediculously inaccurate that it's surprising that anyone would even bother checking it (other than to see just how far they off they are).

Anyway, compare Accuweather's forecast for tomorrow with Noaa's:



Tomorrow Accuweather says 6F tonight and 35F tomorrow. Noaa says -16F tonight and 20F tomorrow. At 7:53 PM it was already officially 0F and the temperature is dropping fast. I already have -9F at 8:39 PM. Any guess as to which forecast will be more accurate for tomorrow?

Has anyone else noticed this with Accuweather or is this more of a local phenomenon? What is typically the least accurate forecast where you live?

[RL3AO]

My guess is accuweather is using straight GFS MOS output, and the NWS knows the local effects on the weather and can adjust the model output.

[Dean4Storms]

So true, a local NWS office will have a much better handle on local temps.

[PTPatrick]

definately...Accuweather's forecasts for mountain locations are a nightmare. Heck they are a nightmare in Denver too...as are the Weather.com forecasts.

[Scott Patterson]

My guess is accuweather is using straight GFS MOS output, and the NWS knows the local effects on the weather and can adjust the model output.

That would be my guess too, but still I have to admit that being 20-40 degrees off (just one day in advance) on a regular basis seems a bit much. On a few occasions it has even been more than 40 degrees off.

[Scott Patterson]

Anyway, for the record here's how the day turned out.

Actual temp at official weather station

Low: -13F (-16F at the house)
High: 19F

Noaa

Low: -16F (3 degrees off from actual or 0 degrees off at the house)
High: 20F (1 degree off from actual)

Accuweather forecast

Low: 6F (19 degrees off from actual)
High: 36F (17 degrees off from actual)

As usual, after the fact Accuweather changed their forecast to a high of 20F, when it was obvious that it wasn't going to hit 36F.