Texas Winter 2010-2011

[downsouthman1]

That's quite an impressively deepening cutoff low after 120 hours on the 12Z GFS in the Southwest US & Northern Mexico. 540 thickness line is associated with it, even though it shows no real Arctic air attached to it.

[Ntxw]

That's quite an impressively deepening cutoff low after 120 hours on the 12Z GFS in the Southwest US & Northern Mexico. 540 thickness line is associated with it, even though it shows no real Arctic air attached to it.

12z Euro is still deepening it over the southern plains. I find it really hard to believe (if it stands) a storm this strong won't be a winter storm of some sort in the southern plains somewhere. I think over time (again if it stands) the cold air should slowly work into the models. Could be a surprise storm (much like March of last year) with cold air associated with it if it can cut off and maintain the 530s 540sdm.

Here's a link to that March 20-21st storm. Days before no one believed it would draw the cold air but it did somehow, Mr Wxman said no snow for Dallas .

20th
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2010

21st
http://www.meteo.psu.edu.../NARR/2010/

[downsouthman1]

That's quite an impressively deepening cutoff low after 120 hours on the 12Z GFS in the Southwest US & Northern Mexico. 540 thickness line is associated with it, even though it shows no real Arctic air attached to it.

12z Euro is still deepening it over the southern plains. I find it really hard to believe (if it stands) a storm this strong won't be a winter storm of some sort in the southern plains somewhere. I think over time (again if it stands) the cold air should slowly work into the models. Could be a surprise storm (much like March of last year) with cold air associated with it if it can cut off and maintain the 530s 540sdm.

Here's a link to that March 20-21st storm. Days before no one believed it would draw the cold air but it did somehow, Mr Wxman said no snow for Dallas .

Wow, those images are amazing. I find it interesting that the GFS is showing this. I haven't seen the Euro, but also amazing if it's seeing this. This can be anything from a line of severe thunderstorms to something wintry. Time will tell.

[srainhoutx]

When I saw that, I thought more of a severe event than a last shot at winter weather. Temps seem like they'll be too warm to me.

It could be, but my general knowledge is that systems with 552dm or lower tend to be winter storms especially underneath/behind the low (lower heights means colder air). I've never seen 530s dm not be a winter storm. They generate their own cold air and might not be seen far out (ECMWF dips the 540 thickness into North Texas at 174 but precip ends), if it stands in time it should gradually look colder and more detailed.

I could be wrong, this is just speculation from me to stir chatter as supposed to be on a discussion forum when all hope has but faded . Ahead of it will definitely be a severe weather threat.

This has the look of a major severe weather event.

[vbhoutex]

It is interesting that some think this will be a major severe event and some expect a winter storm out of it. Unapproved Site.com is saying that it may not have all the parameters in place to become a severe weather event unless I misunderstood their video. I'm not sure what will happen and not about to predict anything till I have a chance to look at the models etc, which isn't going to happen anytime soon today.

[orangeblood]

That's quite an impressively deepening cutoff low after 120 hours on the 12Z GFS in the Southwest US & Northern Mexico. 540 thickness line is associated with it, even though it shows no real Arctic air attached to it.

12z Euro is still deepening it over the southern plains. I find it really hard to believe (if it stands) a storm this strong won't be a winter storm of some sort in the southern plains somewhere. I think over time (again if it stands) the cold air should slowly work into the models. Could be a surprise storm (much like March of last year) with cold air associated with it if it can cut off and maintain the 530s 540sdm.

Here's a link to that March 20-21st storm. Days before no one believed it would draw the cold air but it did somehow, Mr Wxman said no snow for Dallas .

20th
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2010

21st
http://www.meteo.psu.edu.../NARR/2010/

Pattern seems way too progressive for any low to deepen enough to cause any winter precip around here next week.

[downsouthman1]

That's quite an impressively deepening cutoff low after 120 hours on the 12Z GFS in the Southwest US & Northern Mexico. 540 thickness line is associated with it, even though it shows no real Arctic air attached to it.

12z Euro is still deepening it over the southern plains. I find it really hard to believe (if it stands) a storm this strong won't be a winter storm of some sort in the southern plains somewhere. I think over time (again if it stands) the cold air should slowly work into the models. Could be a surprise storm (much like March of last year) with cold air associated with it if it can cut off and maintain the 530s 540sdm.

Here's a link to that March 20-21st storm. Days before no one believed it would draw the cold air but it did somehow, Mr Wxman said no snow for Dallas .

20th
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2010

21st
http://www.meteo.psu.edu.../NARR/2010/

Pattern seems way too progressive for any low to deepen enough to cause any winter precip around here next week.

Maybe I'm interpreting this differently than you; nontheless, new model data is coming in so we will see.

[Ntxw]

^ It will either happen or it won't lol. There will be severe weather I think, and someone in the plains will get a heck of a winter storm whether it be Tx/Ok/Mo/Ne etc who knows if you get a low with a mind of it's own. You just can never fully predict one of those things right up until the low decides to cut off and deepen. PNA isn't exactly cooperating like the March storm I posted, but one just never know!! What I've learned this winter is that once you think you got it, you don't.

[downsouthman1]

^ It will either happen or it won't lol. There will be severe weather I think, and someone in the plains will get a heck of a winter storm whether it be Tx/Ok/Mo/Ne etc who knows if you get a low with a mind of it's own. You just can never fully predict one of those things right up until the low decides to cut off and deepen. PNA isn't exactly cooperating like the March storm I posted, but one just never know!!

That's the thing about "progressive" patterns. If a low is truly cutoff, that pattern is virtually irrelevant.

[Metalicwx220]

Its is gonna be a warm snow. LOL

[Ntxw]

Once again, 0z GFS shows a monster cut off storm in the SoPlains with more cold air now entrenched than previous. Given most of the heavy snow associated with it being in Kansas and Nebraska for now. We go through this hoopla with storms like this all the time! Wouldn't want it any other way



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[orangeblood]

^ It will either happen or it won't lol. There will be severe weather I think, and someone in the plains will get a heck of a winter storm whether it be Tx/Ok/Mo/Ne etc who knows if you get a low with a mind of it's own. You just can never fully predict one of those things right up until the low decides to cut off and deepen. PNA isn't exactly cooperating like the March storm I posted, but one just never know!!

That's the thing about "progressive" patterns. If a low is truly cutoff, that pattern is virtually irrelevant.

I probably should've mentioned earlier that the combination of the progressive pattern and the stubborn southeast US ridge is what should prevent any cut-off low from digging into Texas.

[wxman57]

Winter appears to be over for Texas. Thursday's storm will drop some snow from Nebraska eastward, but Texas will see only rain, thunderstorms, and some severe storms.

[downsouthman1]

Somethings definitely not right in the transitional phase of the GFS between hours 102 & 114. It completely loses the ULL somewhere over Eastern NM & West TX.

[orangeblood]

Winter appears to be over for Texas. Thursday's storm will drop some snow from Nebraska eastward, but Texas will see only rain, thunderstorms, and some severe storms.

I think you're right Wxman57 unless we can get the NAO - and the PNA +. I think we'll need both of them to go that way this late in the season in order to get cold enough around here and that's probably a long shot.

[orangeblood]

Somethings definitely not right in the transitional phase of the GFS between hours 102 & 114. It completely loses the ULL somewhere over Eastern NM & West TX.

It's being affected by the Strong Southeastern US ridge and not allowed to deepen as much.

[gpsnowman]

Winter appears to be over for Texas. Thursday's storm will drop some snow from Nebraska eastward, but Texas will see only rain, thunderstorms, and some severe storms.

I think you're right Wxman57 unless we can get the NAO - and the PNA +. I think we'll need both of them to go that way this late in the season in order to get cold enough around here and that's probably a long shot.

I agree also. Dont know much about the NAO or PNA but my oak tree buds are starting to sprout little leaves already. The neighborhood yards are infested with weeds and some grass is growing. Dang, is it time for yard work? Seems a bit soon for that. That 10 day period of cold was quickly replaced with April type weather with no end in sight.

[wxman57]

I agree also. Don't know much about the NAO or PNA but my oak tree buds are starting to sprout little leaves already. The neighborhood yards are infested with weeds and some grass is growing. Dang, is it time for yard work? Seems a bit soon for that. That 10 day period of cold was quickly replaced with April type weather with no end in sight.

Fear not, this "April type weather" will be ending in a few months - replaced by the July-type weather that I love!

[Ntxw]

Fear not, this "April type weather" will be ending in a few months - replaced by the July-type weather that I love!

With drought growing throughout Texas and especially SW Texas where hot air usually comes from, your 100+ should come pretty easily, and sooner . Should be your summer Wxman! A lot of the forecasters are already pinpointing the intense heat to be in the southern plains.



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[South Texas Storms]

Ntxw, when do you think our drought will end? I don't see an end in sight and I hate Texas droughts with a passion!!