Official 2010/11 Denver - I hate La Nina Thread

[SCMedic]

Strong La Nina does not bode well for us. I'd be surprised if we see snow before Turkey Day. Prepare for warm downsloping winds and dry/sunny days. Just what we don't need after this dry summer.

[PTPatrick]

LOVING this rainy cool morning. These are the colorado days I live for, seeing as how I am not a big "sun person". I know it isnt snow, but hey, us Coloradans need something to talk about besides how darn warm and dry its been. Any case, Denver WFO discussion hints at a pattern change coming next week. GFS is finally starting to look a little troughy down the middle of the country, and that combined with a wet system coming from the southwest around tuesday looks like it will at the very least given us another cold rainy day, but based on thickness, snow could come close to the metro if the current trends hold true. Bears watching :-D Hopefully La nina doesnt end up with a total grip on Colorado. Apparently la ninas can be quite dry here, but at least in the front range metro we still have a chance at a normal winter snowfall. I do anticipate the november early decmeber time period to be relatively low on the snow scale. But that was the same with last year, and it was a El Nino so...

[SCMedic]

The last two times we've rolled from a moderate/strong El Nino to a strong La Nina we've had above average snowfall. Should be fairly dry through November, but hang on come December/Jan/Feb.


Btw....It was snowing all the way down to Golden on my way home from work in Vail this morning. Absolutely NUKING from the east side of the Tunnel to Idaho Springs.

[Dencolo]

Wow, snow all the way down to Golden? It's definately cooler than I expected it to be today.

I'll go on the record and predict the first snowfall for the Metro area for next Tuesday. Looks like the moisture is there - we'll just have to get cool enough for snow.

Anyway, we have a frost warning for tonight. Fall is certainly on its way. A little late, but I'll take it.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1158 AM MDT TUE OCT 12 2010

...COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS FALL EXPECTED TONIGHT...

.TEMPERATURS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE 30S TONIGHT AS SKIES
CLEAR. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING IN
LOW LYING AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD IN THE UPPER 30S WHERE
CLOUD COVER LINGERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

[SCMedic]

With the models all over the place, next week could definitely bring us our first snow on the plains.

The morning discussion mentioned it yet again, so we'll see. Until then, enjoy the high 70's!

[VoodooCadillac]

I'll once again perform my civic duty and record snowfall amounts in Fort Collins.

[SCMedic]

Big pattern change in the offing next week according to a multitude of models. If it pans out, looks like our first cold and snow for Denver next Wednesday.

[Dencolo]

La Nina - mountains are currently getting hammered. Ski season is starting off great. But the pattern giving snow to the mountains leaves us in Denver dry. Looks like a snowless October and us having the chance to break a latest snowfall on record.

[SCMedic]

1st half of November is looking very warm. Keep your fingers crossed for a large scale change.

[SCMedic]

First snow of the season looking good for Thursday. Models hard to pin down on timing and totals. Stay tuned!

[PTPatrick]

So looking like the first snow should actually come tonight as this tuesday system seems to have come in a little more deep than planned. disc said 1-3 on palmer divide. GFS drier and they prefer that model. NAM has a lot more tonight. Never know, we might just get a surprise few inches even in the metro if the NAM is right. Hoping we will at least get a grass covering down here. Thursday not looking as robust as it had but still plenty cold, just not a ton of QPF. Once again GFS is the hold out on that one with more like 1-3 inches. NAM goes crazy again with much of the metro int he 5-10 inches range. Should be a good week.

PS...Looking ahead through long range GFS, LOVING the pattern. Looks like mostly one reinforcing shot of cold air after another til almost the end of the month. Climate prediction center has the next 2 weeks for pretty much the entire middle of the country in the below avg temp range. Precip looks bove avg. Longer range though they are still predicting drier and warmer than average.

[Dencolo]

First snowfall - nice to see but only accumulation on grassy surfaces. Time to see what Thursday brings. Hopefully some measurable snowfall.

[SCMedic]

Thursday is looking like a solid 4-6" given temps, QPF and stronger upslope, even with the lower water values.

[PTPatrick]

Todays storm was a bust, although it was looking pretty evident yesterday. Woke up to a nice dusting but even with light snow most of the morning nothing more accumulated. This weekends storm was looking better but looking like a dud as well. This weekends storm now has dud written all over it. At the rate things are going next chance for a good storm (per the long range GFS, which I know is crap), is around Thanksgiving. This winter is getting real old. I have enjoyed this week of cooler weather and the little bit of snow, FINALLY, but this is starting to get depressing. Forunately the temps look to be pretty chilly or at least around normal through the next couple weeks.

[PTPatrick]

Well temps are looking mighty cold for November next week. If current GFS were to hold we could be low teens at night tuesday/wednesday night and sub freezing highs on wednesday and thanksgiving day. The bad news...THere isnt a SPEC of precip east of the divide for the next 2 weeks on todays GFS. Its killing me! November is supposed to be snowier than December. So far I have only had a trace, 3 times, which I guess counts for something. But we are way behind in inches. Average for november is 9 inches or so, and so far, basically nothing. There...i am through complaining...as you were.

[Dencolo]

Current projected low of 10F in Denver Wednesday night, but not a lick of precip in the forecast. Looks like the mountains are getting hit pretty good however. At least the ski season is off to an amazing start. Denver and the plains however, that's another story....

[SCMedic]

Current projected low of 10F in Denver Wednesday night, but not a lick of precip in the forecast. Looks like the mountains are getting hit pretty good however. At least the ski season is off to an amazing start. Denver and the plains however, that's another story....

Dry and cool for the rest of the month. Low for Weds night is now 5 around town. Chilly! Mountains are amazing right now. Been out in the backcountry a few days now and the snow is mid-winter quality. This new storm is going to NUKE the Gore/Elks and San Juans!

Weds is your powder Day. Beav/Vail is your spot. Get after it!

[PTPatrick]

Ok, i am starting to get impatient. a week ago, this looked like a snowy week, then GFS dried it out. Until today it looked like we might get some accumulating snow next week. Now GFS has dried it out again. At this rate we will never get any snow. I am holding out hope for a mid season turn around. Most of the past few years have featured more December snow than November, despite the fact that statistically it should be the other way around. November is going to go down as DRY DRY DRY...lets hope December does better.

[Dencolo]

Anyone want to go skiing at Vail on Thanksgiving? Don't -30F wind chills sound fun!

Thought this would be a great storm to bring more snow to the mountains. But not many locations calling for more than a foot. This storm is bringing the cold however. I think I'll wait until the weekend to hit the slopes!

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... tType=text

[SCMedic]

Slight shot at some minor accum from convective showers tomorrow evening, otherwise it may be Christmas before we see a front range snowstorm.