Official 2010/11 Denver - I hate La Nina Thread

[zephyr99]

Snow accumulations once again fell well short of NWS advisory of 8"-18" here in the foothills. Woke up Monday morning to about 4" tops. Snowed lightly most of Sunday. I did not see much upsloping on radar, looked like movement was mostly west to east. Another bust with just a a lot of wishful thinking. What's this about cold weather ahead? I thought I saw CPC with above normal temperatures for week of 14th through 20th?

[PTPatrick]

Ended with 10 here near downtown. I'm happy

[SCMedic]

4" here in Broomfield/Erie.

[zephyr99]

Actually, this storm sucked worse than originally thought. 2.5 to 3". Man this is a dry winter. I don't think we've had even a foot of snow to date. Must be some sort of record. And I'm near 9000 feet.

[Scott Patterson]

We've been getting buried in the Craig area. We were supposed to get 1-3" and we got another 10 (on top of the nearly two feet we already had).

There is so much snow on our back deck that when looking at it out the window, it's right at eye level (due to snow sliding of the roof).

It seems localized though. East of the Divide and around Kremmling, for example, there isn't much snow.

[Dencolo]

6-10" for most of the Denver area. Pretty good forecast this time around. Cool little storm total map below.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/bou/precip/precip_map.php

[zephyr99]

I am so done with this winter. It looks like just more of the same for the next 3 months. Dry and mild with no end in site. Have a great year everyone and look forward to a more exciting 2011-2012!

[PTPatrick]

well I got 3 inches with this one...forecast was dead on.

The last storm I got 9...I originally thought 10 but after reading reports I dont think it was quite a good measurement. I think I had some compacting with that one because cumulatively I did have 10...but that was adding up each measurement after I scraped the measureing spot...will call it 9 though.

I had 4 with the storm before that...and about 1-2 inches total for the couple dustings we had from november to mid december.

So total for the season for me is 18 inches. Normal for the end of January is 33.3, so if we get nothing else through Feb first I would be 15 inches behind schedule. I think we could get another shot of snow saturday night, based on NAM, maybe even 3-6 inches SO, It is possible we could shave the deficit to 10 or so inches going into february.

Incedentally with today's snow, January for me stands at 11 inches, thats actually above average(7.7)...have to see the silver lining you know if this weekends storm comes through we could just double our typical january snowfall.


10 inch deficit going into February isn't insurmountable. one good more storm could catch us back up. Having said that, after this weekend the pattern doesnt look amazing, and of course we are still in a La Nina. If it lets go by spring we could potentially have and ok march and april but that remains to be seen. CPC not liking those odds though, hold below normal precip and above norm temps in pretty much through May.

[PTPatrick]

Well it looks like those overdue below zero high temps are coming Tuesday...current forecast for denver:

-12 tomorrow night
-3 high Tuesday
-17 Tuesday night


Precip looks on the low end but snow ratio on the high end. Denver probably just aounr .3-.5 qpf which in these temps should have not trouble dropping 4-6 inches int he metro...palmer dive probably 6-10.

Teens for highs look optimistic at best with a 1044 high still on top of Denver. I am guessing single digits. Brief warm up comes Friday -sunday before another system.

Long range looks quite stormy, which is out of character for february. GFS wants canada to spit out monster highs every few days for the nexy 2 weeks, with lots of pacific moisture over running. If todays 12 z run were right we would have big storm(10-12 inches) next sunday to tuesday, followed by anoter few inches thursday friday....and even more beyond that(which is just playtime so I wont bother posting). Lets hope it all holds!

[Metalicwx220]

TWC has denver 40 degrees below average.

[Dencolo]

Denver HWO. Wow!

1118 AM MST SUN JAN 30 2011

...BRUTALLY COLD TEMPERATURES...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW STILL ON THE
WAY FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

IT WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH VISIBILITY FALLING BELOW A MILE AT
TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

CERTAINLY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER AND PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR
IN MORE THAN 12 YEARS IS STILL ON THE WAY FOR THE OUTLOOK AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT AROUND SUNRISE. LOOK FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE MONDAY MORNING...
AND BECOME WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
HEAVY SNOWFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER A STEADY LIGHT SNOWFALL
COULD EVENTUALLY ADD UP TO 2 TO 5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ON THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS...3 TO 7 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND THE
I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR...AND 5 TO 8 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. NORTHEAST WINDS OF
10 TO 20 MPH AND TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WILL ALSO CREATE
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ON THE PLAINS ON MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO TAKE THE APPROPRIATE ACTIONS NOW TO PREPARE FOR
THIS BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR AND SNOW. TRAVELERS SHOULD ALSO ANTICIPATE
SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROAD SURFACES...AS ALSO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW.

SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT AND END ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER THE BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT COULD DIP TO
AS LOW AS 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO!

[PTPatrick]

This afternoons discussion sounds nasty. Basically it sounds like they are forecasting 1 above officially for Denver on Tuesday, but they dont sound optimistic about it. Cheyenne going with a high of 6 below, and Co Springs going with -1. Any way you cut it, it will be cold by colorado standards. Their lows sound optimistic as well. Def think we will see 20s below area wide come tuesday night. Wednesday not looking as warm as they have dropped those highs from teens down to around 8-11 for the metro. If lows Tuesday night do indeed end up 20s below, then we will have a long way to warm wednesday to hit 10. These temps are really hard to get here, and its been a long time. Fun times coming! My dog is going to want to die tomorrow night...he hates this stuff. As a side note....30-40 to 1 snow to liquid ratio forecast! Unbelievable...you dont see that in discussions around these parts. They are going with lower QPF too, and still expecting 2-5 inches. I guess if the models actually verified with .4 inches qpf then we would be looking at up to a foot even in the metro...of course that would compact pretty quickly.

[Scott Patterson]

I just arrived in Denver and will be leaving Thursday (right when it warms up in Denver again). Usually when I come to Denver in winter, I'm looking forward to mild temps. I swear the cold weather is following me.

[PTPatrick]

super icy around denver this morning and the snow is like super fine powder. Temp is plummeting faster than expected. already 10 at DIA...likely will be around low single digits by this afternoon I am betting, as opposed to the 15 degrees at 5:00 that was forecast this morining. Cheyenne already below zero.

[PTPatrick]

Wow...ITs cold. -30s wind chill. I have a feeling today could be non-diurnal...that is, continue to drop or stay steady. The disc said that more cold air is pushing in an flurries should fall for some of the day, so there shouldnt be much sun. Currently. 11 below at dia, and 13 below at the tech center...projected lows for the metro are now around 20 below...even lower in the easter communities(dia, aurora area)...this is going to be some nasty stuff!


edit: also, Fraser is looking at upper 30s below 0 tonight. They actually said it could get coulder than that there though.

[PTPatrick]

Even colder next week? from the Cheyene office :

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...LONG TERM MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG ARCTIC
OUTBREAK ACROSS THE AREA. ALL MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL AND HIGH
TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. WITH A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA AND A 100KT JET ALOFT...CAN
NOT RULE OUT BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY. BY
SUNDAY...GFS AND DGEX SHOW A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD
OUT OF CANADA BRINGING MORE SNOWFALL AND BITTER COLD TEMPS WITH
700MB TEMPS LOWERING TO -25C ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE ECMWF HOWEVER SHOWS THE ARCTIC FRONT ABOUT 24 HOURS
LATER COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS...BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
ARCTIC HIGH FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONT PRODUCING MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. [b]ECMWF ALSO SHOWS AN
IMPRESSIVE 1059 MB ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO
MONTANA AND WYOMING BY TUESDAY...WITH 700 MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO
UNDER -30C AND 850 TEMPS AROUND -25C...WHICH TRANSLATES TO
WIDESPREAD BELOW ZERO TEMPS AT THE SURFACE AND MORE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILL CONCERNS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CAREFULLY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS SINCE THE MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES AGREE
WITH THE 12Z ECMWF RUN. [/b]FOR NOW...INCREASED POP THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LIKELY PROBABILITIES
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE
FRONT...KEPT POP IN THE 25 TO 45 PCT RANGE FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BUT BELIEVE EVEN THESE AREAS HAVE A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF
SEEING SNOWFALL SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOWERED TEMPS BELOW CONSENSUS SINCE HIGHS AND LOWS APPEARED TO BE
WAY TOO WARM CONSIDERING ALL MODELS SHOW AN ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH FORECAST TEMPS ARE IN THE TEENS
FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEY COULD VERY WELL BE 20 DEGS
BELOW THESE VALUES IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. &&

[Dencolo]

Wow, just wow. From the Denver AFD.

OR TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW AND ITS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SLOWLY
MIGRATE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST REGION OVERNIGHT. A WEAK
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER FORMING AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO PASS OVER SRN COLORADO THIS EVENING. AS IT PASSES BY
MODELS INDICATE SEVERAL HOURS OF MODEST 850-500MB QG ASCENT OVER
NERN COLORADO...AS WELL AS NELY UPSLOPE WINDS OF 10-15 MPH ALONG
THE SRN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. CROSS
SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS
BLANKETING THESE AREAS THIS EVENING AND SPOTTY VERY LIGHT QPF IN THE
AREA. SEEMS REASONABLE...SO ADDED MORE CLOUDS AND LOW POPS ACROSS
SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA FOR THIS EVENING. DO NOT SEE ANY
ACCUMULATION AS SHALLOW AS THESE CLOUDS WILL BE. CLOUD COVER WILL
ONLY DELAY THE PLUNGE IN TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED LATER TONIGHT.
RECORD LOW FOR DENVER IS 18 BELOW ZERO. THINKING WE/LL DROP BELOW
THAT BY ONE DEG F. HOWEVER..SHOULD SKIES CLEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT...
WATCH OUT. ALL TIME RECORD LOW FOR DENVER IS 29 BELOW. JUST THOUGHT
I`D MENTION THAT.

[Dencolo]

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOULDER, CO
457 PM MDT TUE FEB 01 2011

...NEW DENVER RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 1ST...

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT STRUGGLED TO
REACH A MAXIMUM OF ONLY -1 DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS LOW
MAXIMUM RECORD FOR THIS DATE OF 2 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1985.
THIS IS THE FIRST TIME SINCE JANUARY OF 1997 THAT THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FAILED TO REACH ZERO DEGREES. IN THAT YEAR...BOTH
JANUAR

[PTPatrick]

Wow today's snow was not expected. I thin it's what nam hinted at the other night then lost. Nws didn't see it either until it was here. My forecast was half an inch and ended up with 2 and a half. Looking around heaviest seems to have been in a swath from central Denver through englewood and Littleton. Less toward se/ aurora and less north. Love a good unexpected snow!

[Dencolo]

I haven't seen the weather forecast for Denver change so frequently in a long time. Now we have at least a chance of snow for the next 5+ days. Certainly yesterday's snow was the most surprising.