Southeastern States Winter 2010-2011

Winter Weather Discussion

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Cyclonosis
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Southeastern States Winter 2010-2011

#1 Postby Cyclonosis » Sun Oct 17, 2010 8:51 pm

Hello all, I am brand new to this forum and I know you guys dont know me from Adam, but I am going to get straight to my winter forecast for the SE if you guys dont mind, because it is that time of year. Don't take this too serious because I am a amateur but here goes.


Unlike some Nina years, this one developed quick so Nina impacts should be felt by December. Therefore, the southeast ridge will be our enemy. However, we should be in a solidly -NAO by December, so the southern Appalachians could do very well early in the winter. A Ohio Valley-Apps runner storm track should be the norm although I wouldn't rule out a coastal runner or three during the times when the SE ridge breaks down and it will, so people in the deep south shouldn't completely give up hope for a snowstorm, but areas further south and east are going to be the main areas that the SE ridge will keep everything mostly warm and dry IMO. But for early winter I expect something simular to the current pattern with the ridge gradually building in and by Febuary it will be in full blowtorch mode. Now for the midsouth I fully expect some Severe wx and Ice storms this winter and areas that is notorious for CAD could see quite a bit of ice this winter.

Here is my winter forecast map and comments, critisism, and questions will be appreciated

Thanks

Image

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Last edited by Cyclonosis on Tue Oct 19, 2010 5:45 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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#2 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Oct 18, 2010 2:10 pm

It appears that the persistent continental Southeastern U.S. Ridge just continues to hold firmly over the region, which has been the case since late June. This La Nina is a fairly strong one and the warm and extremely dry conditions look to continue right on into the upcoming winter months.

I am definitely expecting with this pattern for mild to above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation through at least the first 2/3 of winter throughout the Southeast U.S., especially Florida. This La Nina is expected to last at least until the start of March 2011. So, after having the coldest winter in over 30 years here in Jax for 2009-2010, Mother Nature seems to have given us a repreive for this upcoming winter season. However, the down side is the extermely dry conditions as we are over 14 inches below normal for rainfall for the year to this point. We are in dire need for rain, and the outlook for the region is not looking too good in this regard with the La Nina pattern firmly locked into place.
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Re: Southeastern States Winter 2010-2011

#3 Postby Portastorm » Mon Oct 18, 2010 2:34 pm

Welcome cylconosis and glad to have you on Storm 2k!

Just so you know, any and all amateur forecasts must include the following tag with them:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



I will add it to your post above. Good luck with your forecast!
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Re: Southeastern States Winter 2010-2011

#4 Postby Cyclonosis » Mon Oct 18, 2010 5:34 pm

Portastorm wrote:Welcome cylconosis and glad to have you on Storm 2k!

Just so you know, any and all amateur forecasts must include the following tag with them:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



I will add it to your post above. Good luck with your forecast!


Thanks, my appologies..... I have seen that quote alot around here, but totally forgot, and will add the disclaimer to any future forecasts :P
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Re: Southeastern States Winter 2010-2011

#5 Postby amawea » Mon Oct 18, 2010 8:36 pm

You have put out a good scenario based on the current and future forecast for La Nina' and the NAO. Thanks for your forecast and input. It will be interesting to see how this winter unfolds.
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Re: Southeastern States Winter 2010-2011

#6 Postby Cyclonosis » Tue Oct 19, 2010 5:43 pm

amawea wrote:You have put out a good scenario based on the current and future forecast for La Nina' and the NAO. Thanks for your forecast and input. It will be interesting to see how this winter unfolds.


Thank you very much, I know I will be looking forward to see what this winter brings. I'm like a kid waiting for candy :lol:
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