The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or 
I developed this forecast via the following ideas:
1. This IS an East based La Nina. The strength of this La Nina is not in question as this La Nina is driving towards a very strong state, the strongest in 20 years at least. However the fact is that the anomalies at NINO 4/NINO 3.4 have flat lined or started to warm even and has not shown any sign of becoming colder since mid September. Meanwhile, NINO regions 3 and 1+2 (aside from a brief interruption in late Sept/early Oct) has steadily fallen and are where the coldest anomalies are located. This has a significant impact on forcing mechanisms.
2. The Cryosphere in the Northern Hemisphere is rapidly building and I expect the cryosphere (snow cover) to average above normal by the time October is done. This has a feed back influence on the current negative AO/NAO regime.
3. The combination of a solar minimum, ozone anomaly orientation, and stratospheric temperature anomaly orientation will support a weak negative NAO/AO pattern this winter.
4. Climatology of a strong negative PDO and strong positive AMO influences further supports negative NAO potential.
Pacific Northwest
The Pacific Northwest will be under a constant assault from storms coming in from the Pacific via the positive PDO pattern. The highest precipitation totals will be found along the immediate coast. At times, Arctic air will slide down the west coast of Canada and right into coastal Washington and Oregon states leading to surprise snowfalls. Moving further east, the storm track will shift towards towards Canada leading to eastern Washington and eastern Oregon missing the heaviest precipitation this winter. Above normal precipitation is expected along the coast and normal precipitation is expected over the interior.
California and Southwest
The below normal temperatures will develop not due to Arctic air or a persistent deep trough over much of the West, but instead by the persistent upper low along or just off the California coast. The upper low will keep clouds and the threat of precipitation a constant threat through the winter, but most times the heavy precipitation events will remain well to the north and northwest of this region. Precipitation will average near to slightly above normal here.
Rockies
I expect the Northern Rockies to get the full assault of arctic air masses through the winter, especially over Montana. The ridge that develops over these locations will keep much of the Rockies on the below normal side of precipitation, however low level Arctic/Polar air masses will still slide down along the east side of the Rockies this winter, which will lead to the cold anomalies.
Northern Plains
I’m expecting a very cold winter for the Northern Plains with near to above normal precipitation. The Northern Plains will be impacted by two particular storm tracks. The first will be Alberta Clippers that will bring powerful Polar and Arctic air masses into this location. The second will be when the storms cut up towards the Great Lakes leading to significant snow storms or even blizzards.
Southern Plains
A major concern for the Southern Plains comes via the potential for low level cold air bleeding down the Plains and stalling over the Red River Valley. The interaction between the dry, warm air masses over the Desert Southwest, the warm, moist air masses over the Gulf Coast of Texas, and the Arctic air masses bleeding south will lead to several Texas Panhandle low pressure systems developing this winter. I expect parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and possibly even northern Texas will have to deal with several snow/ice storms this year. The primary threat especially south of Kansas will be ice though.
Further south towards southeastern Texas, there will be a threat through the winter for severe thunderstorms, especially when low pressure systems track through the Red River Valley towards the Tennessee River Valley.
Great Lakes
The invasion of Arctic air masses into the Great Lakes and Southeastern Canada this winter will also mean a high threat for Lake Effect Snow. This winter the development of powerful LES events will make headlines. Aside from the Lake Effect Snow, the region will be impacted by Alberta Clippers producing fast intense snowfall, Lake Cutters creating the heaviest snowfall, and for the eastern Great Lakes Miller B storm tracks.
Mid West through Ohio Valley
These locations will be on the deep cold side of the thermal gradient I expect to set up over the eastern half of the United States. Temperatures will average slightly below to below normal with above normal precipitation. The storm track for the most part will be to the south and southeast of these locations, keep these locations on the cold side of many of the winter storms this winter.
Mid Mississippi Valley and Tennessee River Valley
These locations will be impacted by many of the storms this winter. The strong thermal gradient between the Arctic air in the Plains and the warm, tropical air masses over the Southeast will lead to powerful storms through the winter. The storm tracks I’m expected include Alberta Clippers (southern portion of cold front), Texas Panhandle, western Gulf of Mexico storm track, and Miller B storm tracks.
New England
Compared to much of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic, New England including Boston will be the jack pot for snowfall along the East coast, not including the Great Lakes. New England will be under the influence of Alberta Clippers, which will transport Polar and Arctic air masses into this region, but also Miller B storm tracks. These storms will be capable of producing significant snowfalls this winter, especially when the Arctic air masses interact with the Atlantic ocean. Be on guard for energetic and powerful Alberta Clippers leading to surprise snowfalls.
Northern Mid Atlantic
The Northern Mid Atlantic will be on the cold side of the storm track most of the time, however each individual storm will have to be monitored carefully for precipitation types. Unlike last winter, this winter will feature many snow to ice to rain type storms or even just snow to ice. The storm tracks will be influenced by the state of the North Atlantic Oscillation. While I do not expect the same type of winter as last year, the winter will still be fairly active especially for the New York City metropolitan area. The type of storms that I expect include Alberta Clippers, Miller B, Texas Panhandle, and Lake Cutters. I am especially concerned about scenarios were an Arctic or Polar cold front stalls just to the south of the region, blocked from moving south via the Southeast ridge with disturbances approaching from the West. This type of set up could lead to a very dangerous set up this winter for snow and ice.
Southern Mid Atlantic
This region including Baltimore, Washington D.C., and Richmond metropolitan areas. These locations will be on the warm side of the thermal gradient. The powerful Nor’ Easters/Miller A storms of last year will be extremely rare. I can’t rule one out, but the chances of such a storm are slim with this type of set up, if anything your best shot of a snow storm will have to wait until March when La Nina should weaken slightly. Overall, those in the Southern Mid Atlantic will be frustrated with Miller B storms redeveloping too far northeast to produce any meaningful precipitation or will be caught on the very warm side of a Lake Cutter storm track. The Southern Mid Atlantic will average near to slightly above normal with most locations averaging 0.5 to 1.0 degrees above normal. As a result, snowfall totals and precipitation totals as a whole will average below normal. However, there will be times when the Southeast ridge is able to really flex that Spring like conditions can be expected and even severe weather is possible.
Southeast and Gulf Coast
These locations will be under the powerful influence of the Southeast/Bahamas ridge this year. Basically the best way to describe this winter is to get your golf game ready because you’ll have no problem getting to the course on a regular basis. One issue that will have to be monitored is the threat for significant severe thunderstorm outbreaks. As for the winter, I would not be surprised if much of the Southeast coast and Gulf Coast record no days below freezing this winter.
SOURCE:
http://www.nynjpaweather.com/public-win ... or-201011/
