My Winter Forecast for 2010/2011

[Ntxw]

Hmm perhaps the tropical season gave us a hint on where the ridge will be. It was further east than many thought (therefore pretty much protected the SE U.S. coastline) except for the regions of S. Tx into Mexico.

[NY NJ PA Weather]

Hmm perhaps the tropical season gave us a hint on where the ridge will be. It was further east than many thought (therefore pretty much protected the SE U.S. coastline) except for the regions of S. Tx into Mexico.

Bingo!

[CaptinCrunch]

One disagreement I have with the forecast is the placement of the above normal region over Florida. I'd put it farther west into Texas and New Mexico. I'm thinking a persistent East U.S. trof will bring the cold air south into Florida, too.

Well, I get the idea of warmer than normal in New Mexico, however I am a bit concerned about shallow Arctic air intrusion into Texas, especially between Dallas and the Red River.

The trough idea for the Polar jet stream is reasonable with a negative NAO, but I don't think the SE ridge over the Bahamas is going to give way so easily, thus the warmer than normal temperatures in the Southeast. Looking for a significant clash of air masses for the Mid Atlantic as a result.

East Texas over to Dallas/Ft Worth over to Lubbuck up to Amarillo will be in an area that may need watching thru out winter. I dont see anything like last winter as far as snowfall, but this season could be the winter of the ice storm for many areas across NTX.

[wxman57]

One disagreement I have with the forecast is the placement of the above normal region over Florida. I'd put it farther west into Texas and New Mexico. I'm thinking a persistent East U.S. trof will bring the cold air south into Florida, too.

Well, I get the idea of warmer than normal in New Mexico, however I am a bit concerned about shallow Arctic air intrusion into Texas, especially between Dallas and the Red River.

The trough idea for the Polar jet stream is reasonable with a negative NAO, but I don't think the SE ridge over the Bahamas is going to give way so easily, thus the warmer than normal temperatures in the Southeast. Looking for a significant clash of air masses for the Mid Atlantic as a result.

I think that we may have a few such Arctic intrusions into Texas in December, but that will be the end of our winter here. I'd say 2-4 deg above normal across much of Texas Jan-Feb, just a bit above normal in December.

[wxman57]

East Texas over to Dallas/Ft Worth over to Lubbock up to Amarillo will be in an area that may need watching throughout winter. I don't see anything like last winter as far as snowfall, but this season could be the winter of the ice storm for many areas across NTX.

With the strong La Nina, there may not be a southern storm track like 2009-2010. That could significantly limit moisture and lifting in any cold airmass. I'm thinking the ice threat will be farther north - OK and KS and eastward this winter. I foresee quite a few sunny and mild days this winter, sort of like 1986 (which was one of the best winters I've experienced here in Houston). It was also the winter we hit the upper 80s and 90 in February. My kind of winter! (I can dream...)

[CaptinCrunch]

East Texas over to Dallas/Ft Worth over to Lubbock up to Amarillo will be in an area that may need watching throughout winter. I don't see anything like last winter as far as snowfall, but this season could be the winter of the ice storm for many areas across NTX.

With the strong La Nina, there may not be a southern storm track like 2009-2010. That could significantly limit moisture and lifting in any cold airmass. I'm thinking the ice threat will be farther north - OK and KS and eastward this winter. I foresee quite a few sunny and mild days this winter, sort of like 1986 (which was one of the best winters I've experienced here in Houston). It was also the winter we hit the upper 80s and 90 in February. My kind of winter! (I can dream...)

From Austin to the coast will be above normal most of winter. But I thing the Panhandle and North central TX will see the shallow dence arctic air when it does make it this far down. But we will see drier than normal winter, but there is always that unexpected low that seems to make into NCT to play on.