Cold Snap for Central Plains Third Week of Nov.?

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TeamPlayersBlue
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Cold Snap for Central Plains Third Week of Nov.?

#1 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Mon Nov 08, 2010 4:40 pm

Ive seen Accuweather jump on the bandwagon and i have looked at a few interesting runs on the GFS. I know it's still very early for anything substantial, but you cant blame me for being excited about our first cold snap! :) On the GFS, the Siberian high seems to be in the right location for ushering cold air into Texas without killing all the moisture.

Nice to be back for winter time :)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_288l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_348l.gif
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Re: Cold Snap for Central Plains Third Week of Nov.?

#2 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Nov 08, 2010 4:54 pm

The models have been sniffing this pattern change since last week. I suspect that there is something to it as the GFS and to some extent, the Euro is onboard. Could make for an interesting Thanksgiving for may folks. :cold:
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#3 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Mon Nov 08, 2010 4:59 pm

i agree, i hope we can get some moisture in the mix too. Its not a bad cold snap for late November. A bit too much to ask for snow? The only time i remember a cold snowy/icy Thanksgiving was in 1993 when the cowboys played in heavy sleet
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#4 Postby Ntxw » Mon Nov 08, 2010 5:45 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:i agree, i hope we can get some moisture in the mix too. Its not a bad cold snap for late November. A bit too much to ask for snow? The only time i remember a cold snowy/icy Thanksgiving was in 1993 when the cowboys played in heavy sleet


It probably is too early to look for snow not to say it hasn't happened before, it's just not likely. But what you want to look for here is the pattern set up/change and model consistency between the globals.

Looking at it beyond lets 100+ hours won't be very reliable to say 'it could snow here and here' as more times than not it won't happen. Look for setups and trends ;) I think it could be in our favor.

Looks chilly for the southern plains down to the deep south to parts of Florida.

Larry Cosgrove out of Houston is very good at explaining how things set up and what to look for. Here's a link to his site as I enjoy reading his WeatherAmerica analysis over the weekends.

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-houston/larry-cosgrove
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#5 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Nov 09, 2010 9:44 am

yea i keep up with Cosgrove alot. He's my fb friend so i see his updates all the time! It looks to be quite funky that weekend, unfortunately i'll be in vegas that weekend
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Re: Cold Snap for Central Plains Third Week of Nov.?

#6 Postby Portastorm » Tue Nov 09, 2010 9:51 am

The pattern looks like it will be "there" in terms of capable of delivering what kind of airmass is in Canada. Major-league troughing will be fairly consistent over the central and eastern US for the latter half of November. Should be fun and interesting!
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Re: Cold Snap for Central Plains Third Week of Nov.?

#7 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Nov 09, 2010 10:42 am

So this possible cold snap around Thanksgiving, for a "La Nina" year that's typcial right? Then it tends to warm up after that? Just trying to remember what all I have read. Cold early on then warm.......

Can't wait for the cold be it in a few weeks or later on. :cold:
Last edited by HockeyTx82 on Tue Nov 09, 2010 11:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#8 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Nov 09, 2010 11:31 am

i think with La nina, we typically have a drier winter, and an early spring. Im trying to look for old weather archives to compare the analogs too
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Re: Cold Snap for Central Plains Third Week of Nov.?

#9 Postby Portastorm » Tue Nov 09, 2010 12:02 pm

Analogs are going to be tough this winter. We have a nearly historic cold Nina ... solar activity has been at a minimum ... lots of conflicting signals. Check out what pro met NY NJ PA Weather said in his winter forecast thread:

NY NJ PA Weather wrote:At this point, I really like where I am standing with this winter forecast. The constant negative NAO state into November now shows the power of solar influences overriding the positive QBO influences. Meanwhile, the MJO clearly is taking on the influences of an east based La Nina.

Big wild card here are these volcanoes going off. Hard to measure exactly how much and when these volcanoes will have an impact on the overall pattern for the winter, but needless we are going to have to keep an eye on these events.

I'm expecting a major Polar/Arctic invasion around Thanksgiving over the Plains, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and then a bleed into New England and the Northern Mid Atlantic. Could be some major travel headaches from the Southern Plains into the Tennessee River Valley, Ohio Valley, and Northern Mid Atlantic. End of this month is going to be VERY active.
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#10 Postby Ntxw » Tue Nov 09, 2010 4:15 pm

The euro is starting to show it in long range. Ensembles agree. Very impressive for late November lots of well below average anomalies for much of the country, looks like old man winter is on the move.

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#11 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Nov 09, 2010 4:53 pm

i can never understand the Euro maps :( GFS and 500MB vorticity etc , no problem, but the euro...i dont know how to read
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Re: Cold Snap for Central Plains Third Week of Nov.?

#12 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Nov 09, 2010 6:38 pm

:cold:

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Re: Cold Snap for Central Plains Third Week of Nov.?

#13 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Nov 09, 2010 9:32 pm

Wow, that is pretty bullish from the CPC! It is not often that you see them highlight such a large area of 60-70%+ chances of below normal temperatures right over the plains.
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#14 Postby Ntxw » Tue Nov 09, 2010 11:04 pm

Hmm, always thought the CPC was conservative, odd to see. The 8-14 day outlook is similar also. You know, I know this may be a bit off topic and not in the correct place, but something just makes me wonder if mother nature is somehow playing with our heads. That volcano down in Indonesia is really making me double think about the cold this winter...
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#15 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Nov 10, 2010 11:28 am

i agree with you, the volcanoes can throw a wrench in our plans. I was expecting a warm winter and was fine with it since we had plenty of winter precip last year to hold me over :), but the pattern of La Nina can still promise large Arctic fronts like this. weather the moisture is there is the question, need to watch the MJO. Still very far out though. The 06Z just pushed it back to the monday thanksgiving week. Jusy need to keep an eye on it
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