North Country Winter 2010

[brunota2003]

Here a few of the images VB was referring to:



A Soldier's work is never done (taken at 1:20 am)


Snow was coming down pretty good, and the winds were not helping


Yes, the sky was that eerie red at 1:30 this morning. It was caused by the clouds reflecting the lights from the rest of the base.


I stepped in the snow this morning and literally sunk! Several guys coming in and out of the building were laughing at me because I was doing high knees through the snow, just goofing off (Side image showing how deep my foot sunk in another spot http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak- ... 5960_n.jpg )


You can see the snow near the road being kicked up by the winds this morning.


Shovel, shovel, shovel! Clearing the path for the billionth time (11:20 am this morning)

[brunota2003]

Well, the snow is almost completely gone and it is raining outside currently...but that is okay, lake effect fans! Because tomorrow evening, the rain is supposed to change over to snow and the lake effect is supposed to pick back up until Thursday night (this was the storm I mentioned last week they were beginning to talk about). This time, however, conditions are expected to be even more favorable for heavy lake effect than last week's system. Currently, the thinking is that my portion of Jefferson will be under the gun, and I expect that we will be put under a LES Warning (a LES Watch was posted during today's afternoon update). I have good confidence atm that we will be hit even harder than last time, as an earlier check of the models showed the band over us from about 11 pm Wednesday night until 5 pm Thursday evening. However, as mentioned in the watch, even the slightest change in forecast wind direction can be the difference between 12"+ and a dusting.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
237 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

NYZ007-008-010345-
/O.EXB.KBUF.LE.A.0005.101202T0000Z-101203T0000Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
237 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

* LOCATIONS: JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY AND NORTHERN
LEWIS COUNTY.

* TIMING: LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: MAY EXCEED ONE FOOT WHERE THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW PERSISTS THE LONGEST.

* IMPACTS: HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY PRODUCE DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE: THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. A SMALL CHANGE IN WIND
DIRECTION MAY CARRY LAKE EFFECT SNOW FARTHER NORTH INTO
NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY OR FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER
INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO
BE FOUND AT http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$


And here is the 316 pm AFD talking about the LES event. The worst will be tomorrow evening into Thursday night...with light lake effect snows carrying on throughout the weekend and into the beginning of next week (with perhaps an increase in the strength of the snows):

TEMPS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND DURING WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR
FOLLOWS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. THE TIGHT 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT ALSO
SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS FALLING BELOW 0C IN THE WEST AROUND
DAYBREAK AND TO -7C BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE WEST WILL
COME TO AN END DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL SHOW A MIX AND
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THIS WILL SET UP THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ERIE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...850MB TEMPS FALL TO
0C AROUND NOON AND TO A -5C TO -7C RANGE LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT A
CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE
FINGER LAKES TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES. LAKE SNOWS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP OFF LAKE ONTARIO LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT WILL TAKE PLACE DURING
THIS PERIOD AS A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED H5 LOW OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL HELP TO PRODUCED A PROLONGED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OF -8
TO -10C AIR OVER BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. LOCAL RESEARCH HAS
SHOWN THAT THIS PATTERN FAVORS MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LONGEVITY OF THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER TODAY
BECAUSE OF THIS POTENTIAL. THE LAKE ERIE DETAILS...

A 250 FLOW OF -8C AIR OVER LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL DIRECT A
WELL ORGANIZED PLUME OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF ERIE COUNTY
TO WYOMING AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN GENESEE COUNTY. OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PLACING THE AXIS OF THE
BAND IN THE VCNTY OF THE `SOUTHTOWNS` OF CENTRAL ERIE COUNTY...WITH
THE REGIONAL GEM BEING THE FURTHEST NORTH OF THE PACKAGES (NR BUF TO
BATAVIA). THIS PLACEMENT IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHERE GUIDANCE HAD THE
BAND DURING THE LAST EVENT. WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE OF THE NAM AND
REGIONAL GEM FOR OUR INITIAL PLACEMENT OF THE BAND...WITH 6 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM ABOUT HAMBURG TO
ORCHARD PARK TO ATTICA AND THE HILLS OF SRN GEN COUNTY. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...THE ON STATION 6KM MESOSCALE MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT
WITH THIS PLACEMENT (SOUTHTOWNS).

THERMODYNAMICALLY...LICAPES WILL AVERAGE 300-400 J/KG WITH AN
EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL (CAP) JUST UNDER 10K FT. THE AIRMASS UNDER THIS
CAP IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE IN IT THAN THE LAST EVENT WITH
THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH AREA FORECAST TO BE NEARLY SATURATED. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY SNOW AS THE P TYPE...UNLIKE THE LAST
EVENT THAT FEATURED PLENTY OF GRAUPEL. NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH GRAUPEL INVOLVED IN THE CONVECTION TO ONCE AGAIN PRESENT THE
CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE
CASE WITHIN ABOUT 20 MILES OF THE LAKE.

AS MENTIONED...THE SNOWBAND IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY FOR
AN EXTENDED PERIOD SO LITTLE MOVEMENT IS FORECAST FOR THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS WILL PLACE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWS OVER THE
SOUTHTOWNS WITH SOME ACCUMS WORKING SOUTH TO SKI COUNTRY AND
NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. THE INSTABILITY AND CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.

SHIFTING OUR ATTENTION TO LAKE ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT...
A SIMILAR 250 FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH -8C H85
AIR PRODUCING LICAPES OF 300-400 J/KG AND A CAP OF ABOUT 10K FT. IT
WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY FOR THE
LAKE ONTARIO CONVECTION TO GET ORGANIZED...SO A GENERAL SNOWFALL OF
AN INCH OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED EAST OF LK ONTARIO IN THE EVENING
BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TAKES SHAPE. ONCE AGAIN...THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING WITH THIS BAND
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL APPROACH
6 INCHES FROM THE TUG HILL NORTHEASTWARDS. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AS A RESULT.

FOR THURSDAY...A 260 TO 270 FLOW OFF LK ONTARIO WILL AIM THE MAIN
SNOW BAND AT THE TUG HILL REGION AND AWAY FROM THE WATERTOWN METRO
AREA. SNOW ACCUMS THURSDAY SHOULD REACH AT LEAST 6 INCHES ON THE TUG
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. LIKE THE ACTIVITY OFF LK ERIE...THE CAP
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT THURSDAY. SCATTERED
FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND OUTSIDE OF THESE LAKE
BANDS WITH NO ACCUMS ANTICIPATED. TEMPS REGIONWIDE WILL AVERAGE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE FLOW BECOME MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
STEADY LAKE SNOWS SETTLING A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE OFF LK ERIE AS THE LAKE SNOWS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP WELL INTO SKI COUNTRY. FOR THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND...THE FLOW
WILL ONLY VEER TO ABOUT 270-280 DEG...SO THE SOUTHWARD DRIFT SHOULD
ONLY TAKE IT TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TUG. SIGNIFICANT 12 HOUR SNOW
ACCUMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED OFF EACH LAKE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT..WITH THE
GREATEST ACCUMS COMING EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATION COULD EXPERIENCE A
NUISANCE SNOW SHOWER DURING ITS PASSAGE WITH CONTINUED...MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. A STRONG GREENLAND BLOCK
WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN INITIALLY AND AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING COLD WEATHER OVER OUR REGION. SOME
DETAILS....

A TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY WILL KEEP A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOME LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES...
BUT A LOWER CAP AND A LESS FAVORABLE FETCH SHOULD KEEP SNOW ACCUMS
TO A MINIMUM. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL YIELD
THE OCCASIONAL FLURRY WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

A STORM SYSTEM WELL SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY MORNING IS
DEPICTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO DEEPEN AND RETROGRADE BACK
ACROSS THE MARITIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION WHILE ALSO STARING TO CIRCULATE A
WEALTH OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS QUEBEC AND SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE LAKE SNOWS GOING SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES WITH ALL OTHER AREAS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PICK UP SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AS WELL.

THE POTENTIAL FOR GENERAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA WILL CIRCULATE OVER OUR OPEN LAKES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

[vbhoutex]

I am posting some more LES images for Tim since he can't right now. He has almost 2 feet of snow on the ground at Fort Drum.

[brunota2003]

Thanks vb! That was a crazy system, we got over a foot (almost 2 feet) of snow overnight. I just got my cable and internet installed in my new barracks room (we moved). As of right now, there is probably 4 or 5 inches of snow on the ground, and it is currently snowing again (4 to 7 inch totals expected through tomorrow evening)

[brunota2003]

Thought I would add this tidbit, as it is rather amusing:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COLD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT FOR SITES EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES. WHILE THIS IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR MID DECEMBER...THE PATTERN
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS CERTAINLY `UNWORLDLY`. AS ONE RESPECTED
COLLEAGUE REMARKED..."WHAT PLANET IS THIS ANYWAY?"

From the 1147 pm discussion last night.

[vbhoutex]

Thought I would add this tidbit, as it is rather amusing:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COLD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT FOR SITES EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES. WHILE THIS IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR MID DECEMBER...THE PATTERN
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS CERTAINLY `UNWORLDLY`. AS ONE RESPECTED
COLLEAGUE REMARKED..."WHAT PLANET IS THIS ANYWAY?"

From the 1147 pm discussion last night.

Should we be expecting UFO's??LOL!
Meanwhile back to the weather... I am curious as to what the forecaster means by that. The pattern isn't that weird for La Nina. I wouldn't call it a "normal' pattern, but I haven't seen anything really wierd, but what do I know?

[brunota2003]

Two interesting tidbits from this afternoon's discussion...the first will shed light on the 'unwordly' comment, the second makes me think one of the forecasters is a member of S2K!

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS HEMISPHERIC PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FEATURES
A MONSTROUS HIGH NEAR GREENLAND WHICH IS CAUSING EAST-WEST FLOW
ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF CANADA...FASCINATING. CLOSER TO WESTERN NY
HOWEVER...THERE IS A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AND A CORRESPONDING MESO-SCALE SURFACE FEATURE DROPPING SOUTH ALONG
THE EAST SIDE OF LAKE HURON. THIS SHOULD HAVE LIMITED IMPACT A
SPOKE OF IT CROSSES WESTERN NY THIS EVENING...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW
BRIEF 15 MINUTE BURSTS OF SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN TO THE EARLY
EVENING. ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS AND DECREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
PROBABLY HANG TOUGH IN THE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH WILL NOT BE
CONDUCIVE TO VIEWING TONIGHTS SOLAR ECLIPSE. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY EXTEND EAST ACROSS THE ROCHESTER METRO AREA...AS WELL AS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. HOWEVER...WITH REDUCED
MOISTURE SOME AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE MAY CLEAR OUT.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...ONCE THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURE
MOVES SOUTH PAST WNY...NOT MUCH SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. A NARROW BAND
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS A PORTION OF CAYUGA AND
WESTERN OSWEGO COUNTY. THIS BAND WILL LIKELY THIN WITH TIME AND
EVENTUALLY PETER OUT THIS EVENING. A SIMILAR DECREASING SNOW TREND
IS EXPECTED IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL
PLATEAU...WHERE LIGHT SNOW IS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TUESDAY...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD...EXPECT NO
PRECIPITATION EXCEPT POSSIBLY TOWARD THE ADIRONDACKS WITH SOME WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE THAT GETS STRIPPED AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC SYSTEM
/FISH STORM/ THAT HAD THE EAST COAST WORRIED SEVERAL DAYS AGO. WILL
BE OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF SKY COVER AND LEAVE THE WORD SUN IN THE
FORECAST AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE IN THE MODELS
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE DATA UPSTREAM OVER CANADA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

[brunota2003]

Well, just an update. We got 9 to 10 inches of snow on Wednesday (was supposed to be 12 to 18 inches, but we missed the deformation zone, it pushed further to the east than the models were originally showing), and ever since my last update, we've been getting almost daily snows, but that system Wednesday was the first one where we got more than 3 or 4 inches in a day. The average depth of snow on the ground right now is probably about 1.5 feet. We are expecting another 4 to 8 inches tonight (already got an inch or so), and it is snowing pretty good outside.

[brunota2003]

I measured 3 inches of snow at 7:40 pm (started snowing around 4 or 4:30 pm), went out at 8:15 pm and measured 4.5 inches. Visibilities here are easily less than 1/2 of a mile, the street lights in the motor pool are less than 1/4 of a mile away, and I'm having issues seeing them. Will post photos later tonight or tomorrow.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS EVEING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. FOR THE LATTER...SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES AN HOUR WERE BEING SUGGESTED BY KTYX SNOWFALL ALGORITHMS.
THESE SEEM VERY REASONABLE GIVEN THE SNOWFALL OVER THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE SNOW IS IN RESPONSE TO A FAST MOVING BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT
WAS DEPICTED BY WV IMAGERY TO BE OVER WRN NEW YORK AT 0100Z. THIS
FEATURE IS PRODUCING TWO MAIN AREAS OF SNOW. THE FIRST IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS IS WHERE THE
HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST SNOW WILL BE FOUND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE SNOW INCLUDE SOME GRAUPEL/SLEET AS WELL...WHICH WILL HELP TO
GENERATE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER CLAPS. THE KTYX RADAR AT 0130Z SHOWED
THE ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIXED PCPCN AND THIS
LINED UP WELL WITH THE SPOTTER REPORTS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES ON LDS
DISPLAYS. WE HAVE 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS FOR THIS AREA...BUT WILL HAVE TO
CLOSELY WATCH FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO WARNING AS AMOUNTS COULD BE
HIGHER.

THE OTHER AREA OF WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW IS OVER THE NIAGARA
PENINSULA AND THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE. REGIONAL
RADARS WERE SHOWING THIS AREA OF SNOW WEAKENING A COUPLE HOURS
AGO...BUT FRESH REFLECTIVITY IMAGES SHOW THAT THE ONLY WEAKENING IS
FOUND FROM YXU SOUTHWESTWARD. THE REMAINDER OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE
IS HOLDING TOGETHER NICELY AND PRODUCING MODERATE SNOW AT BOTH
TORONTO AND TRENTON. THIS SWATH OF STEADY SNOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
WESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 03 AND 06Z WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW.
AFTER 06Z...THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE EXITS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

[brunota2003]

I love it when my report becomes the deciding factor on what to issue at the NWS, it makes me feel important (regardless, yes I know every report is important).

I called them at 8:20 pm to relay my 4.5 inches of snow I measured at 8:15 pm (figured that report was too important to send in via e-mail, phone call would be better). Turns out my 7:40 pm report I e-mailed in got lost somewhere in cyberspace, so I let them know I measured 3 inches at 7:40 pm and 4.5 inches right before I called. The forecaster commented that it is about an inch an hour or so (well, a little over, but their discussion posted above did say 1 to 2 inches). He said we can expect another 3.5 to 4 inches by tomorrow morning, but it looked like the worse had pushed to the east of us, and even a "lull" was possible for a bit. Just looked at the forecast page and saw they upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning for us (see discussion above from prior to me calling, says they are sitting on the fence about issuing a warning, and they are watching it closely). The WW Advisory we were under also have visibilities dropping to below 1/2 a mile, this one has visibilities to below a 1/4 mile. See? Public reports do make a difference Told them I would take another measurement before heading to bed around 10 pm or 11 pm.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
840 PM EST SAT FEB 5 2011

NYZ007-008-060945-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-110206T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0002.110206T0140Z-110206T1100Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
840 PM EST SAT FEB 5 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY. THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION INCLUDING JEFFERSON AND
LEWIS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

[brunota2003]

I lost visual on the motor pool lights right before I went outside for the 9:15 pm check (I can now see the lights again at 9:25 pm). I measured on a car out in the parking lot and got 6.5 inches of snow, when I measured in the 3 usual spots outside, I got 7 inches of snow (I measured on the hood of the car because I thought there was no way we have 7 inches of snow, that in an hour we got 2.5 inches of snow). When I came in (I was outside for about 5 minutes) I was completely covered in snow, and had a nice layer on my head.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS EVEING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. FOR THE LATTER...SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES AN HOUR WERE BEING SUGGESTED BY KTYX SNOWFALL ALGORITHMS.
THESE SEEM VERY REASONABLE GIVEN THE SNOWFALL OVER THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE SNOW IS IN RESPONSE TO A FAST MOVING BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT
WAS DEPICTED BY WV IMAGERY TO BE OVER WRN NEW YORK AT 0100Z. THIS
FEATURE IS PRODUCING TWO MAIN AREAS OF SNOW.

THE FIRST (AND MOST IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT) IS FOUND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS IS COMBINING WITH
WITH JET ENHANCED LIFT ALOFT (140KT JET OFF COAST) TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. SPOTTER
REPORTS OF 4 PLUS INCHES OF SNOW ARER COMING IN FROM THE AREA AND
ANOTHER QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF QPF IS EXPECTED.

WHILE THE CURRENT HEAVY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH MIDNIGHT...MORE
SNOW IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT FROM THE TRAILING DEFORMATION ZONE.
SPEAKING OF WHICH...

THE OTHER AREA OF WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW IS OVER THE NIAGARA
PENINSULA AND THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE. REGIONAL
RADARS WERE SHOWING THIS AREA OF SNOW IS HOLDING TOGETHER NICELY AND
PRODUCING MODERATE SNOW AT BOTH TORONTO AND TRENTON. THIS SWATH OF
STEADY SNOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 03 AND
06Z WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW. AFTER 06Z...THE SNOW WILL TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE EXITS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

BY SUNDAY, CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVE AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS WNY. A LOW LEVEL SURFACE INVERSION MAY MAKE IT TOUGH TO
CLEAR THE LOW CLOUDS OUT FOR ANY SUNSHINE, BUT WE COULD SEE SOME
PEEKS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
-- End Changed Discussion --

Also of note, as of 8:30 pm, the base is shut down until further notice (roads are BLACK due to snow)

Current road condition settings:

Rating: Black

Definition: Extremely dangerous, life threatening conditions. Roads are covered with hard packed snow or ice and possibly unplowed. Heavy snowfall and/or high winds causing zero visibility are occurring or expected.

Restrictions: All vehicle traffic operations are suspended except for police, fire, medical DPW snow removal and service vehicles and other operations in support of national defense. Tire chains must be mounted on tactical military vehicles if the vehicles are authorized.

[brunota2003]

Well, went outside for the 10:15 pm check (not going out again, plus the snow has slowed down quite a bit). Watertown reported 5.0 inches of snow as of 9:40 pm, while I recorded 8 inches here at Fort Drum. I had to do some averaging though, as I measured 8.5 inches in my 4 usual spots out back, but only 7 inches on the hood of a car. I also measured in a spot that had already been shoveled (prior to being shoveled, there was a good 1.5 inches there) and it measured out to 6 inches (for a total of 7.5 inches). Based on that, 8 inches is a good average (in all, the actual average would be 8.08333, but my ruler is home made, so 8 inches is good).

1207 am update:
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE WELL DEFINED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT BROUGHT STEADY SNOW TO ALL OF
WESTERN NEW YORK HAS BEEN FALLING APART AND SHRINKING TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...AND AS A RESULT THE WIDESPREAD
SNOW OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES HAS DROPPED OFF NOTABLY IN INTENSITY.
THIS WILL JUST LEAVE SOME SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...WHILE THE SNOW EAST OF LK ONTARIO WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER
TO DISSIPATE.

THE SNOW OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY HAS BEEN FUELED BY A COMBINATION OF
WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS AND FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE JET DYNAMICS
ALOFT...BUT THE WARM ADVECTION IS LONG GONE AND THE JET DYNAMICS ARE
RAPIDLY WEAKENING. THE SNOW IN THIS AREA WILL TAPER OFF AS
WELL...BUT LEAVING THE WINTER STORM INTACT AT THIS POINT MAKES SENSE
GIVEN THAT ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION COULD FALL.

[brunota2003]

POST MORTEM...SAT`S AFTERNOON AND EVE SNOWFALL RANGED FROM 1-3
ACROSS SRN TIER TO 3-5 FROM BUF-ROC. HEAVIER AMOUNTS FELL ACROSS
NORTH COUNTRY WITH 8-12 ACROSS NRN LEWIS/JEFF COS. WATERTOWN`S 11
INCHES WAS HEAVIEST OF THE SEASON THERE. PNS HAS BEEN ISSUED.

I just went outside and measured 9.1 inches of snow (2 pm, Feb 6) from last night's event.

The measurements look like this:
*Snow started sometime between 4 and 5 pm on the 5th*
7:40 pm: 3 inches
8:15 pm: 4.5 inches
9:15 pm: 7 inches
10:15 pm: 8 inches
*Snow ended sometime early on the 6th*
2 pm: 9.1 inches

Watertown measured 11.1 inches, and a couple other areas in the county measured 6 to 8 inches.

Now for some pictures from last night:

This is the sidewalk I was measuring the snow on, at about 5:30 pm last night:


This is the area where I measured the 6 inches (after they shoveled it):


My shoe out on the sidewalk, showing how tall the pile is next to the building (from shoveling the sidewalk before)


Myself standing next to that same snow pile:

[brunota2003]

Here are some more photos I just posted on fb:

I don't know how I got those lines there, just thought it was a pretty neat shot (was taken through a window):


You can see the snow starting to pick up a lot here, and you can also see the big pile of snow from where we were clearing the sidewalks from previous events:


Visibilities were down to less than a 1/2 mile at this point (maybe even less):


Same image as above, but with the flash on (you can see, from previous images, just how much the snow picked up):

[brunota2003]

Well, we are being socked by lake effect snows today through Friday, and today was bad enough that they closed Post early (I don't know why they even had us come in, but I digress). Here is the bulletin on that:

OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1111 AM EST WED FEB 9 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY.

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...AND OSWEGO COUNTIES...WITH THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TUG HILL.

* TIMING...MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH PRODUCING
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* VISIBILITIES...BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.


The lake band was supposed to weaken (and possibly dissipate) today for a few hours due to marginal conditions, but the band did the exact opposite:

644 am:
CURRENTLY...THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS HAVE LIFTED NORTHWARD INTO
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES IN CONJUNCTION WITH A GENERAL BACKING
OF THE FLOW TO WSW...WHILE ALSO WEAKENING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...INCREASING SHEAR...AND LOW-LEVEL
DRYING. OWING TO THESE INHIBITING FACTORS...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN PLACE THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY EVEN END
ALTOGETHER FOR A TIME LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
WHEN THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MOST UNFAVORABLE. GIVEN
CURRENT RADAR PRESENTATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS...CANNOT SEE THIS
ACTIVITY PRODUCING MORE THAN A FEW INCHES THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

1232 pm:
CURRENTLY...THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOW HAS SHIFTED NORTH TO NORTHERN
JEFFERSON COUNTY. INSTABILITY IS VERY MARGINAL WITH LAKE INDUCED
CAPES ONLY AROUND 4K FEET OR SO. DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...
A DECENT BAND REMAINS FROM JUST NORTH OF WATERTOWN EASTWARD ALONG
THE ROUTE 3 CORRIDOR AT 15Z. THIS BAND MAY DROP 3-4 INCHES TODAY
WHERE IT PERSISTS THE LONGEST. THE MORE INTENSE SNOWS WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT HOWEVER.

[brunota2003]

I sent a question about lake effect snows to the MIC at NWS Buffalo, concerning events such as tonight's snow band...

Tom,

Having grown up in the south, I have never had to deal with lake effect snows, so therefore do not know too much about them. I get the idea of warm[er] water sparking clouds and precip when a cold wind blows across it (that part is fairly simple convection, warm air at the surface rises, condenses and then rains or snows out). Out of curiosity, though, when a very well developed band forms (such as the one that just pushed across Drum and Watertown, then further south), why does it prevent other bands from forming to the North (or South) of it? Weak events have multiple bands, but why not strong events?

I guess I don't get it that well because north of that strong band, wind is still blowing across open water, which *should* spark off another, intense band to the north. How does the intense band alter the atmosphere around it to kill off any other attempts? It certainly should not deplete the air of moisture to it's north and south, otherwise it would kill itself once the drier air was entrained. I did notice a second band start to form up north of here, as the first was moving across us, but that second one was extremely short lived and died off almost immediately (which is partly what sparked the question).

Thanks,
Tim

Tonight's discussion:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM...AN IMPRESSIVE LAKE EFFECT BAND CONTINUES...ROUGHLY
EXTENDING FROM ADAMS TO CROGHAN. BUFFALO RADAR SHOWS THIS FORMING
AS FAR WEST AS THE NIAGARA COUNTY SHORELINE...WITH A LONG AND DEEP
FEED OF MOISTURE. DEEP UNSTABLE LAYER SHOULD ALLOW THE BAND TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 INCHES PER HOUR
LIKELY AT TIMES.

RADAR TRENDS DROP THE BAND SOUTH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH
INTENSE SNOW LIKELY ON THE WESTERN FACE OF THE TUG HILL. THIS
SAID...THE DEEP UNSTABLE LAYER WILL ALLOW HEAVY SNOW TO SPREAD ALL
THE WAY ACROSS LEWIS COUNTY...IMPACTING LOCATIONS WHICH ARE
SOMETIMES SHADOWED BY THE TUG HILL.

TIMING REMAINS THE KEY TO TONIGHTS FORECAST...WITH NAM12/RGEM/WRF
DROPPING THE BAND SLOWLY SOUTHWARD...BUT KEEP IT MOVING. MOST RUNS
OF THE HRRR STALL THE BAND FOR A BIT NEAR THE JEFFERSON/OSWEGO
COUNTY LINE. WILL MONITOR UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS TO SORT THIS
OUT...BUT NOTE THE HRRR HAS HAD TROUBLE SPINNING UP THE BAND IN
NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY...AND BASED ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS IT APPEARS TO HAVE TOO MUCH ICE ON THE LAKE...WHICH
WOULD HAVE AN UN-DETERMINABLE EFFECT ON ITS FORECAST.

BASED ON THIS...WILL UP SNOWFALL TOTALS A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT IN
OSWEGO/LEWIS COUNTIES...AND TRIM BACK JEFFERSON JUST A NOTCH AS
THE BAND DROPS SOUTHWARD. CONSIDERED BUMPING STORM TOTALS UP...BUT
FOR NOW KEEP AT ONE TO TWO FEET...AS HEAVIEST SNOW TOMORROW MAY
NOT ALIGN WITH HEAVIEST SNOW TONIGHT. ALWAYS TOUGH WITH SUCH HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES...AS ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO IN TIMING CAN MEAN A 6
INCH FORECAST BUST. BOTTOM LINE IS...TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT THROUGH THIS BAND TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED BACK ALONG THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER. THE NAM HAS FORECAST (PERHAPS OVER-FORECAST) THIS FOR
SOME TIME. IT SHOWS BEST MOISTURE BETWEEN NOW AND SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RADAR RETURNS VERY MEAGER...MORE INDICATIVE OF CLOUDS
THAN FLURRIES. WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN A BIT LONGER IN A FEW
SPOTS...AND LEAVE MENTION OF FLURRIES AS IS. NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES ON THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE IN NIAGARA/ORLEANS
COUNTIES...WHICH ARE COVERED IN GRIDS.

[brunota2003]

Well, I got a reply today, along with a link that has some amazing pictures of snow crystals!

Tim,

When winds blow down the long fetch of the lake and there is significant temperature difference between the land and lake, a strong convergence zone develops along the length of the lake. Winds become directed more toward the center of the lake, converge and where they come together, strong updrafts occur. Essentially, the strongest "energy" for band formation is concentrated along this axis. You end up getting one really strong snowband at the expense of smaller, less intense bands developing. These single banded snows have a very well-developed circulation system, a strong updraft with strong downdrafts on either side of the band. They get so strong, they can produce lightning and thunder, heavy snow showers of graupel or snow pellets that look like small mothballs, and on either side of the main updraft within the band, the converging winds can get very strong.

When winds blow at more of an angle to the long axis of a lake, blow across the short axis, or winds and temperature differences are weaker overall, then you end up with multiple, less intense bands of snow. They have their own circulations/updrafts and downdrafts but on a much smaller scale then the "mega-bands" described above.

Hope this answers some questions for you. I plan on writing a book someday on my 30 years of experience with this type of phenomenon, I will let you know if I ever get started. In the meantime, if you are interested in snow, I will put a selfless plug in for my little website "www.buffaloflakes.com" or if you are on Facebook, search "Mother Nature's Snow Flakes". You might get a kick out of my hobby Take care,

Tom

Lake Effect Snow is definitely very interesting, about as interesting as severe weather and the tropics. It also serves as a replacement for being back home (I miss the excitement of "are we gonna get hit with snow?", except there it was is it going to be a cold rain, or snow?, while here it is are we gonna get dumped on, or are we going to get sun, with the band just a few miles down the road? ).

I also invited him (along with anyone else) to come take a look at the site here, and feel free to join.

Now...back to the LES event in progress:

OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
907 AM EST THU FEB 10 2011

A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUED TO SWEEP IN OFF LAKE ONTARIO
ACROSS CENTRAL OSWEGO COUNTY FROM OSWEGO, TO MEXICO, TO
WILLIAMSTOWN. THE BAND HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT
IS STILL CAPABLE OF PUTTING DOWN SNOWFALL OF AN INCH OR MORE AN
HOUR. THE BAND WILL BE DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING,
REACHING EXTREME NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY BY NOON, AND SOUTHERN
JEFFERSON COUNTY BY AROUND 1 PM. ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED WITH
TRAVEL EXTREMELY DIFFICULT IN AREAS WHERE OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL WAS
UP TO 20 INCHES.

$$

AFD:

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE LAKE SNOWS OFF LK
ONTARIO. AS OF 730 AM...THE SINGLE INTENSE BAND WHICH SMOTHERED
OSWEGO COUNTY OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED SOUTH AS EXPECTED AND
WEAKENED...BUT SHOULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
AS WINDS BACK AGAIN...PERHAPS LOSING SOME INTENSITY DUE TO DIURNAL
FACTORS AND INCREASING SHEAR...BUT SHOULD GET FAIRLY INTENSE AGAIN
FOR AWHILE TONIGHT OVER JEFF/NRN LEWIS COUNTIES ON SW FLOW. WILL
THEREFORE KEEP WARNINGS AS IS FOR ALL THREE COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM
TODAY...WITH FUTURE SHIFTS DECIDING ON LOCATIONS AND TIMING FOR
POSSIBLE EXTENSIONS TONIGHT.

AND...CANT FORGET OUR OTHER LAKE. RECENT SATELLITE SHOTS SHOW ERIE
SOME 95% FROZEN...BUT SOME OPEN WATER AND LEADS ALONG ITS NORTHERN
EDGE NORTH OF LONG POINT WERE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT
OF LAKE SNOWS LATE WED EVENING WHICH PUSHED INTO ERIE CO AND THEN
DRIFTED SOUTH...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES ACCUM OVER SOUTH TOWNS. THIS WAS
AIDED BY PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROUGH/SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND ALSO
LIGHTER WINDS WHICH ALLOWED FOR MORE RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE WATER
THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY WED WHEN WINDS WERE STRONG. THIS ACTIVITY
HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED AS OF 08Z AND DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN
A FEW FLURRIES DURING THE DAY TODAY...BUT DID BRING CHC POPS IN LATE
TONIGHT OVER NIAG FRONTIER AS WINDS TURN SW FOR AN ENCORE
PERFORMANCE...ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS GREATER AND CAP LOWER THAN IT WAS
WED EVE SO NOTHING MUCH EXPECTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --

There was a spotter report of 19.0 inches of snow in Oswego County just 5 hours overnight! That is a snowfall rate of 3.8 inches per hour!
PULASKI 19.0 330 AM 2/10 SPOTTER FELL IN 5 HOURS
(No, the Spotter did not fall in 5 hours! )

More reports:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?sit ... &version=1

[brunota2003]

And, thanks to PPT Ranger for this amusing take on Fort Drum and LES events:



(BTW, it is sunny here...for now)

[brunota2003]

I wish we had some more folks from Upstate New York...haha, where y'all at?

[brunota2003]

Well, NWS is forecasting 4 to 8 inches of snow for us tomorrow, and has us under a Winter Storm Watch. My model has us sitting at 4 to 6 inches. Last time we had a low pressure moving up from the SW and similar was forecast, we got 9 inches of snow. Seeing that, I believe we will receive 7 to 9 inches of snow here in Jefferson County.