North and South Carolina Winter Thread 2010-2011

[Portastorm]

The 0z and 6z model runs for the GFS and NAM show about 1-3 inches of snow for your area.

The trends over the last 24 hours have been to weaken the storm some compared to what was earlier thought ... however, today's 12z and tonight's 0z runs should have a much better handle on the system with better observations and readings from the Pacific as the storm comes ashore.

I'm sure there are others on board here who are following the Carolinian prospects for wintry weather who can elaborate or correct my understanding!

Edit update: I should add that it looks like you'll get an inch of snow tonight as well!

[sherry]

The 0z and 6z model runs for the GFS and NAM show about 1-3 inches of snow for your area.

The trends over the last 24 hours have been to weaken the storm some compared to what was earlier thought ... however, today's 12z and tonight's 0z runs should have a much better handle on the system with better observations and readings from the Pacific as the storm comes ashore.

I'm sure there are others on board here who are following the Carolinian prospects for wintry weather who can elaborate or correct my understanding!

Edit update: I should add that it looks like you'll get an inch of snow tonight as well!

Thanks.. I'm that the next model runs are better. NOAA is still saying possible Heavy accumulations.. so I guess we'll see with the next runs.

[jabber]

Right now the Mets are have the snow line (narrow) right on HWY 64.

THIS FAVORABLE TRACK AND THE STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING ACCOMPANYING
THE MID/UPPER WAVE/JETSTREAK WILL PRODUCE A SWATH OF HEAVIER
BANDING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NC...WITH A QUICK BURST OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW OF ONE TO THREE INCHES IN THE VICINITY OF
US HIGHWAY 64. ADDITIONALLY...WHILE IT IS RARE FOR NW FLOW
EVENTS/DISTURBANCE TO BRING WARNING CRITERIA SNOW (3 TO 5 INCHES) TO
CENTRAL NC...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME NOT SO SUBTLE SIGNALS(TOTAL
TOTALS>55...STRONG FGEN EXTENDING FROM THE SFC TO H5...MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES 7.5 TO 8.5)THAT A NARROW CONVECTIVE BAND OF
WARNING/HIGHER AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THIS WOULD
BE QUITE RARE IN DEED...AS REVIEWING SNOW/ICE EVENTS OVER THE LAST
40 TO 50 YEARS ACROSS CENTRAL NC SHOW THAT THERE HAS NEVER BEEN A
MEASURABLE WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT AT GSO WITH PARTIAL
THICKNESSES OF 1300/AND SUB-1500 METERS (ACCORDING TO THE EXTENSIVE
KEETER WINTER WEATHER DATABASE)...AS FORECAST AT GSO FOR 00Z/8TH.
WHILE THIS WOULD ARGUE AGAINST ANY SNOW...MUCH LESS AN ADVISORY...WE
MUST KEEP IN MIND THAT THE CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN ACROSS
NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IS IN A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS STATE.

So how is this going to play out in NC. I live in Statesville which is North of Charlotte. According to the mets out of Charlotte they are calling on just a MIX on Monday. Well last night they mentioned North of Charlotte may get snow. I was wondering if anyone knows where the snow line is in NC. Our local mets seem to be like if it doesn't affect the city of Charlotte then it's not a big deal. But I read online that Statesville could have heavy accumulations. I just would like to know so I know how to prepare.

[hcaeb]

What is everyone thinking about this upcoming storm. I see ice in the Sandhills of NC, that is scary to me. We lost power for 7 days in 2000 with last storm. Please give me your thoughts, ideas.

[Suncat]

There are a few factors coming into play with this event and timing will determine exactly how things will come together. Best bet is to plan for the worse and hope for the best.

There should be a better picture of who will get ice and how much tomorrow (Sunday) afternoon.

[rhoby13]

Here's the NWS's projected snow totals.

[rhoby13]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
321 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...THE GUIDANCE IS ESSENTIALLY STILL ON TRACK
WITH OUR EARLIER THINKING WITH REGARD TO THE PROGRESSION OF OUR
STORM WHICH WILL BE ONGOING AT MIDDAY MONDAY. A WARM NOSE WILL
PROGRESS NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT WILL FORCE A CHANGEOVER
TO SLEET OR A SNOW-SLEET MIX MORE OR LESS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 85. NORTH OF THAT LINE...IT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW FOR MOST
OF THE DAY. AT THE SAME TIME...MID LEVEL DRYING WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO THE EXTENT THAT ICE NUCLEI WILL NO LONGER BE
ACTIVE...SO FROM A CLOUD MICROPHYSICS STANDPOINT THE PRODUCTION OF
PRECIP WILL FAVOR SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS THAT WILL NOT BE ABLE
TO CHANGE INTO SNOW CRYSTALS. THE MODELS SHOW AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AT LOW LEVELS WHERE A WARM NOSE EXISTS AND
SOUNDING TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO 3 DEG C RANGE FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS IDEAL FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE BETTER
PART OF MONDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHUTS OFF
TUESDAY MORNING. FORTUNATELY...QPF MONDAY NIGHT IS ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...SO WE SHOULD ONLY EXPECT A GLAZE OF MAYBE UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH ON TOP OF WHATEVER SNOW DEPTH WE ACCUMULATE DURING MONDAY. WE
SHOULD NOT HAVE A MECHANISM TO FUNNEL MORE DRY AIR IN AT THE
SURFACE...SO THAT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF ACCRUAL. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY DURING THIS PERIOD AND MIGHT RISE A FEW DEGREES
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER A CONSIDERATION OF THE EXPECTED TOTAL SNOW
AND THE LIGHT GLAZE ON TOP OF THAT...THINK IT BEST TO UPGRADE THE
AREAS NORTH OF I-40 TO A WINTER STORM WARNING.

[hcaeb]

I have been looking into other weather threads and have found that this thread really does not care about the NC/SC area. Is that because they can not pinpoint what/where or are we just not that important?

[sherry]

I am in the Piedmont of NC and I'm excited about the storm. They are now calling on 6-8 inches where I am. I am hoping that the last map is correct and we will be getting all snow and no ICE.

We got about 6 inches over Christmas and that was nice. I think they are starting to realize it is going to be a mess here tommrow. Some schools are already cancelling.

[rhoby13]

I have been looking into other weather threads and have found that this thread really does not care about the NC/SC area. Is that because they can not pinpoint what/where or are we just not that important?

It has everything to do with user participation. Tell your friends who live in South Carolina to join in on the conversations.

[hcaeb]

In the Sandhills it has been snowing steady. Roads were clear for a short while. Heavy snowbands have covered them back up. If we get sleet/freezing rain tonight, roads will be terrible. Tomorrow should be the true story as to travel.
Everybody stay safe. Calling for 4-7" snow and could see 1" sleet/freezing rain.

[vbhoutex]

I have been looking into other weather threads and have found that this thread really does not care about the NC/SC area. Is that because they can not pinpoint what/where or are we just not that important?

We have plenty of members from the Carolinas. I don't know why they are not posting about this.

[brunota2003]

I think most of the details are being posted in the Deep South thread. I tried to create a thread to cover this storm specifically, but it never took off. I've seen the NC/SCers posting in the Deep South thread, though.

[sherry]

We ended up with maybe 3 inches of snow in the piedmont. It was snowing again and the roads are covered again but there is sleet and freezing rain now. I hope that we are not going to loose power. I hated when we lost power for 7 days that was horrible.

[hcaeb]

Just went outside and the ice is forming! Roads are going to be bad in the AM. Light freezing rain right now. Everyone be safe and think about yourself. Calling for this rain/freeze to hang around in Tues AM/Noon and the temps are not going up.
Give me your thoughts as to how much ice we can get?

[hcaeb]

Snow for the Carolinas on Monday into Tuesday? Is this going to be snow or ice/fz? Then I hear something about another storm next Friday. Are we in an active cold that will stay that long.

[StormingB81]

I just hope it stays until march!!

[jabber]

Looks like the models are still flopping back and forth as to how far the low will track off the coast or perhaps more inland. That path will determine how much , if any central NC will get next Tuesday / Wednesday.

[jabber]

Its going to be interesting what track the low does take. Central NC not out of the woods for a pretty significant winter storm.

[Tstormwatcher]

Surprise surprise. Our local mets predicted a possibility of maybe an inch along the extreme southeastern coast of NC today and guess what? They were wrong. We, just outside of New Bern have gotten 2 inches so far with greater amounts closer to the coast. Nice surprise snowfall.