Florida winter thread 2010-11

[HURRICANELONNY]

From Miami discussion:

"IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF WARMING TREND ON THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. SO COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN
BY LATE IN THE WEEK. BUT WITH THESE COLD FRONTS, MOST OF THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH."

So there you have it. Doesn't look like anything too impressive for SFL.

With no -nao/ao. I tend to agree with you. Most of the cold will stay north. But most fronts this year trended colder before passing through. But then again . It was when there was a -NAO.

[NDG]

I am very tempted to start reduing my garden after taking a big hit, especially my north facing one, back in December because of both the NAO & AO forecasted by gfs ensembles to stay in the positive phase through the next 2 weeks, both the euro & gfs have come to reality in forecasted temps for the end of next week, the most that I see happening is having temps in the upper 30s with some patchy frost with no killer freezes.
My grass is back to a lushios green once again thanks to rescent rains and temps in the 70s & 80s.

[HURRICANELONNY]

No rain down here this winter. La Nina at least did its job on precipitation. Now we need at least a neutal phase summer to possibly get some much needed rain. The grass is brown and getting worse here.

[cycloneye]

No rain down here this winter. La Nina at least did its job on precipitation. Now we need at least a neutal phase summer to possibly get some much needed rain. The grass is brown and getting worse here.

If the ENSO models are right,Neutral may be dominating the Tropical Pacific by the Summer,but is still not a sure thing.

[psyclone]

looks like a pretty good dump of rain is on the way for north and possibly into central florida over the next couple of days. south florida may remain below the fray on this one.

[gsytch]

It has been VERY wet in my part of Tampa Bay (New Port Richey) since early Jan. I have recorded nearly 7" of rain in Jan., and Feb has seen two heavy storm fronts with over 2" already. Considering the cold damaged plants, this much moisture does not help recovery. Now, we need some su n and warmth!

[northjaxpro]

I received just over 2 inches of rain for after yesterday's event. Northeast FL has really received some very beneficial rains over the last three weeks.

Looks like more rain on the way for Wednesday night and Thursday for the area as the next potent shortwave tracks east across the Northern GOM.

Also, we may have a light freeze with some frost by tomorrow morning across inland areas of Duval, Clay, Baker and Nassau counties of NE FL as lows expected to drop to near the 32 degree range in those areas.

[boca]

I think were seriously done with cold fronts for the souuthern half of Florida.The La Nina SE ridge is now present with no let up in sight.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Your right. AO/NAO looks to stay positive through the beginning of March. Nothing in site. Bring on Hurricane season.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Maybe a cool down in early March.

it appears that the stubborn middle/upper high over our
region will begin to break down as the longwave pattern shows
signs of shifting to stronger troughing over the southeast United
States. This may favor a frontal system making progress down the
state on Tuesday. Until then, warm and dry weather to continue.

[NDG]

The only cool down that I see for next week (early March) is a wind shift from east for a cool ocean breeze to set for a few days with surface high pressure setting to the north of the Peninsula after a weak frontal (trough) passage.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I'm just the messenger. And there won't be a freeze down here till next winter. I think.

[Patrick99]

Any halfway meaningful cool shots down here into S. Florida seem next to impossible at this point with this ridge. I'm kinda hoping this is not the case, because after the abnormally cold December, we've gotten too hot, too early.....much of January was warm and all of February has been very warm. I don't really want to charge right into a long-and-brutal summer. Do you guys see any chance of "cooler" air making it south of Lake Okeechobee in March and April? Sometimes that happens, but I'm beginning to think probably not this year. The one I can think of was the cold shot that happened in March 1993.....obviously nothing like THAT is going to happen, but at this point I'll settle for morning lows in the mid-50s.

Yeah, I was just thinking about this persistent southwest Atlantic ridge....if this persists like this into hurricane season, watch out Florida and Gulf Coast.

[NDG]

Yeah, I don't see any abnormally cool wx making it that far to South FL with the way the ensembles keep showing NAO & AO to stay mostly positive through mid March, the subtropical ridge is finding a home in the Caribbean into S FL.