Florida winter thread 2010-11

[boca]

I figured I would start this thread like we did last year to discuss our winter weather for Florida.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT A SIGNIFICANT COLD BLAST COULD INVADE FLORIDA
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN THIS
CURRENT COLD OUTBREAK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING THIS...SO
DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

[jdray]

Considering this week looks like this for me:
22 tonight
22/51 Tuesday
22/51 Wednesday
22/54 Thursday
28/64 Friday

I'd be interested in seeing what next week might bring.

NWS JAX:

LONG TERM...(FRI-MON)
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE SE CONUS STARTS OUT THE EXTDD FORECAST WITH
A SHORTWAVE WAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
ANOTHER MUCH MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPS SE OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS
AND DIGS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY SAT AND SUN. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SRN U.S. AND THEN ACROSS OUR
REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS SIMILAR FROM
THE GFS AND MEAN GFS ENSEMBLE RUN. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON A
VERY COLD AIRMASS AGAIN BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING
WELL BELOW 0C SUN NIGHT INTO MON. A PEEK AT A 12Z GFS SOUNDING
INDICATED AN 850 MB TEMP OF -10C LATE MON! ECMWF IS NOT TOO
DIFFERENT. HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD FOR TEMPS SUN NIGHT INTO MON
OTHERWISE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 70S S ZONES...AND MID 30S AND
MID 40S EXCEPT PERHAPS STAYING IN THE 50S SAT NIGHT. POPS WERE
TWEAKED UP SAT-SUN WITH STAYED AOB 30% FOR NOW.

[frigidice77]

Jdray you must live around the same area I do. I posted the same thing on another thread. lol.

[jdray]

Jdray you must live around the same area I do. I posted the same thing on another thread. lol.

Middleburg area. not too far from your part of the woods, save for I get no sea breeze.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 00z GFS is showing the low temperature reaching 24-25F in Orlando next Tuesday morning. That would be a pretty extreme freeze for central FL if it actually pans out.

[NDG]

Looks like mid 30s in the heart of Orlando this morning, me in the extreme NW section made it down to 32 with frost on the roof tops and a little on the cars but not on the ground, some outskirts of the city reporting upper 20s.

Next week looks brutally cold for FL standards, if there is any good news is that the euro has changed its mind of bringing down temps of -10 C at H85 to Orlando, but along with the GFS it is still bringing 540mb heights all the way down to Okeechobee!
Last night's raw gfs brings upper 20s all the way down the heart of the peninsula to Homestead, mid 20s down to Okeechobee.

The bad news also that it seems that the center of the Arctic High or parts of it will settle in the Peninsula so there could be widespread damaging frost Wednesday and or Thursday mornings.

If you have sensitive tropical plants that can not handle temps below 32 degs now is the time to cover them and or protect this weekend if you have not done so far.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, next week looks brutally cold for the peninsula. The next arctic airmass will likely have a fresh snowpack over the TN Valley region by Monday. This will prevent any modification of the air mass and this will likely bring the potential of having a historic deep freeze through up at least until Wednesday of next week. I glanced at the NWS AFDs from the Tallahassee and Jax offices and both are expressing with good confidence that minimum temps may plunge into the teens across the northern part of the state next week!!!!

Freezing temps may reach all the way down to Alligator Alley deep down in the extreme Southern peninsula by Tuesday morning. This next cold outbreak really could be a severe one for the strawberry crops around Plant City, and of course would seriously threaten the citrus crops farther down state.

[NDG]

Yeah, I hope orange growers are aware of what is coming and have started picking as fast and much as possible over the next 5 days at least in areas in north central FL.

[TPAcane]

After last winter, I was a little freaked to see such an early outbreak but after doing some digging....looks like we are headed back to the late 80's. There is talk of the NAO going back to a negative phase for the next few years where we will see frequent and severe freezes again...something that seemed so common in the 80's thru early 90's. We have been relatively fortunate in the mid to late 90's thru the 2000's...if this is true and cyclical in nature, the next few winters may be colder and less green around here....maybe time to start looking for work in St. Thomas....

[Extremeweatherguy]

image courtesy Melbourne NWS office

Orlando International Airport hit 31F this morning. The coldest spot was 20F, up towards NW Orange county.

[psyclone]

the usual cold cold spots really tanked last night with brooksville dropping to 20. the threat next week looks serious, especially for ag interests. landscape damage should be less severe than last year, simply because there are fewer tropical plants to damage! they were wiped out last year.

[tshizzle]

cold in South Florida, even had some frost in my lawn and on the roofs in my neighborhood (Sunrise)

[thetruesms]

Just how dry is it? Let's let Eglin's radar and Tally's radar from about half an hour ago tell the story:

KEVX


KTLH


By the time it got from EVX's sampling volume to TLH's, it all disappeared!

[Scorpion]

Wow, weather.com showed 22 for a low Tuesday morning! I had to blink a few times and see if that was real, that would be ridiculous here. The coldest temps I have ever experienced have been around 15, so feeling this cold here would be just insane.

[Steve H.]

12Z ECMWF shows COLD for Monday on the Florida peninsula again with some Precip. Don't have the hires output though. Maybe someone else has time to look. Back to work.

[JPmia]

How cold is it projecting? Are we talking freezing temps or below to SE Florida?

[floridasun78]

what models show after front next week ? we here miami drop to 44 both tuesday and today miami beach broke record of 41 more colder and miami

[EDR1222]

This was posted on the NWS Melbourne afternoon discussion on Wed, Dec 8th. It will be interesting to how the models trend over the next few days.

"THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF MODELS HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WITH THE
POST FRONTAL AIRMASS...BOTH INDICATE THE 0C H85 ISOTHERM WILL PUSH
ALMOST INTO THE FL STRAITS BTWN 00Z-12Z TUE. MEX MOS GUIDANCE HAS
RESPONDED BY DROPPING TUE MORNING MINS A FULL 10-15F ACRS THE BOARD
WITH U10/L20S N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND L/M20S ALONG THE SPACE AND
TREASURE COASTS. GIVEN THIS IS THE FIRST RUN TO INDICATE THIS
TREND...WILL OVERSHOOT GUIDANCE BY 5F DEG. HOWEVER...THE JET
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC IS QUITE STRONG AND AMPLIFIED. SHOULD
ENOUGH OF THE ENERGY TRANSLATE EWD...A SIGNIFICANT COLD OUTBREAK
MAY OCCUR."

[jdray]

Wow, weather.com showed 22 for a low Tuesday morning! I had to blink a few times and see if that was real, that would be ridiculous here. The coldest temps I have ever experienced have been around 15, so feeling this cold here would be just insane.

15F Monday Morning forecast for JAX by weather.com

[JonathanBelles]

No snow or precip otherwise, but I did hear reports from SE AL and W FL of some flakes a'falling.