Florida winter thread 2010-11

[Extremeweatherguy]

If today's 12z GFS run is correct, then there may be more freeze threats deep into peninsular Florida by this upcoming weekend..

168 HR


192 HR

[Extremeweatherguy]

December 2010 was officially the coldest on record for east central Florida..

http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e371/ ... record.jpg

http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e371/ ... uy/pt1.jpg

http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e371/ ... uy/pt2.jpg

[jdray]

Looking at prelimenary reports for NWS JAX, December 2010 was 8.9F colder than normal.
19 days below freezing (more than the average winter for JAX)
Only 8 days made it to 70F or above.
The average min temp was 32F for the month, average max temp was 60.3F, average temp was 46.1F

That is a cold cold month for us here in NE Florida. We are used to some cold temps, but not like it was in December.

[Patrick99]

NWS Miami not too impressed with next weekend's cool shot. Which is fine....."seasonably cool" works for me:

"LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE AS DEEP LOW OVER GREAT LAKES AMPLIFIES
A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE LATE
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY TIME FRAME, WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP IN ASSOCIATION WITH IT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT WILL FALL TO SEASONABLY...NOT UNSEASONABLY...COOL
LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND."

Good read about the S. FL temperature extremes of 2010 - I agree, it did feel like one of the coldest, and hottest, years here I've experienced. December and January were cold, and the summer was brutal.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/mfl/news ... ummary.pdf

[NDG]

If today's 12z GFS run is correct, then there may be more freeze threats deep into peninsular Florida by this upcoming weekend..

168 HR


192 HR

Glad the GFS looks to be wrong after all, no freezes for the peninsula over the next 7 days at least.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I don't know for sure if the GFS is totally wrong. Last cold invasion the models did something similar. There are signs that the Artic air will be back. Including a -NAO/AO. Have to wait and see what happens mid month. It might come in front after front.

[NDG]

I don't know for sure if the GFS is totally wrong. Last cold invasion the models did something similar. There are signs that the Artic air will be back. Including a -NAO/AO. Have to wait and see what happens mid month. It might come in front after front.

Both the NAO & AO have been negative for a while now.
I was talking about what the GFS was forecasting a couple of days ago or so of freezing temps returning to the FL Peninsula this weekend while the Euro was not doing so.
There's no model support for freezing temps to return this weekend for central/S FL.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I don't know for sure if the GFS is totally wrong. Last cold invasion the models did something similar. There are signs that the Artic air will be back. Including a -NAO/AO. Have to wait and see what happens mid month. It might come in front after front.

Both the NAO & AO have been negative for a while now.
I was talking about what the GFS was forecasting a couple of days ago or so of freezing temps returning to the FL Peninsula this weekend while the Euro was not doing so.
There's no model support for freezing temps to return this weekend for central/S FL.

I think the models have the AO/NAO tanking mid month. Don't know for sure. As for this weekend. Cooler. But most likely. No freeze down here. The models are trending cooler. Have to wait and see. How much.

But the latest long range models are showing
a little bit cooler temperatures compare to earlier runs. Will
continue to monitor the trends in the long range models and if the
trend continues then will make adjustments to the weekend temperatures in
later packages.

[NDG]

I don't know for sure if the GFS is totally wrong. Last cold invasion the models did something similar. There are signs that the Artic air will be back. Including a -NAO/AO. Have to wait and see what happens mid month. It might come in front after front.

Both the NAO & AO have been negative for a while now.
I was talking about what the GFS was forecasting a couple of days ago or so of freezing temps returning to the FL Peninsula this weekend while the Euro was not doing so.
There's no model support for freezing temps to return this weekend for central/S FL.

I think the models have the AO/NAO tanking mid month. Don't know for sure. As for this weekend. Cooler. But most likely. No freeze down here. The models are trending cooler. Have to wait and see. How much.

But the latest long range models are showing
a little bit cooler temperatures compare to earlier runs. Will
continue to monitor the trends in the long range models and if the
trend continues then will make adjustments to the weekend temperatures in
later packages.

Yes, GFS ensembles have the AO tanking again in mid month but it usually takes about a week or so afterwards for FL to see the effects of it.
The next Arctic blast invading the US its core looks to have its eyes more for northern Rockies and central Plains with a SW UL flow over FL that should modify it as it reaches its 1060 mb high tentacles over FL by days 7-10 from now.

[northjaxpro]

Longer range runs from the EURO and GFS are indicating major, major changes now as bitterly cold arctic air from Siberia is poised to drop southward down the Lee side of the Rockies into the Eastern 2/3 of the CONUS, icluding the Deep South and Florida.

There are indications that this upcoming arctic intrusion coming within the next 7-10 days could rival the major arctic outbreak of December 1989. This situation is being followed on two other threads. Needless to say, all of my fellow Storm2K posters here in Florida definitely need to closely monitor this situation over the course of the next week. This is a potentially serious situation for sure. This is amazing that this may occur, especially after many of us in the peninsula are just finished still trying to recover from the coldest December ever on record.

STAY TUNED!!!!

[NDG]

Longer range runs from the EURO and GFS are indicating major, major changes now as bitterly cold arctic air from Siberia is poised to drop southward down the Lee side of the Rockies into the Eastern 2/3 of the CONUS, icluding the Deep South and Florida.

There are indications that this upcoming arctic intrusion coming within the next 7-10 days could rival the major arctic outbreak of December 1989. This situation is being followed on two other threads. Needless to say, all of my fellow Storm2K posters here in Florida definitely need to closely monitor this situation over the course of the next week. This is a potentially serious situation for sure. This is amazing that this may occur, especially after many of us in the peninsula are just finished still trying to recover from the coldest December ever on record.

STAY TUNED!!!!

Too early to say for sure but so far both the Euro & GFS show that the core of the cold air will be flowing straight southward towards TX & parts of the gulfcoast, it does not show that FL will see the core of it like the 2 Arctic blasts back in December, at least not yet. But so far it looks like FL might be spared from the coldest of it, is TX turn this time, hopefully

Euro:


GFS:

[northjaxpro]

NDG, I agree it is a bit early yet to see if the models verify close to what the early runs are depicting. I think it is safe to assume that the arctic blast is coming down though. It is just a matter to what magnitude and severity. I'm with you. I am praying that we just get a "glancing blow" from this upcoming outbreak and the brunt or core of it stays north of the peninsula, especially after the record cold December we just went through. But, the jury is still out on this obviously. That is why I stated we here in the peninsula still have to monitor the trends carefully and stay tuned for the next week.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Looks like most of the freeze is west of S. Fl. after the 15th. But it is too early to say what happens then and after.

[Patrick99]

Per NWS Miami:

"Y TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS S FLA LATE TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LOWER
1000-850 MB THICKNESSES WITH THIS FRONT WITH THE GFS THE MOST
AGRESSIVE. BUT STILL THIS AIRMASS WILL HAVE ITS ORIGINS FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC TAPPING INTO SOME CANADIAN AIR SO AGAIN TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THE DECEMBER FRONTS."

Looks like we don't get the brunt of it; instead, a more pedestrian cold snap.

[northjaxpro]

For now, it looks as if the extreme southern end of the peninsula will not get any major cold up through early next week. However, I would still monitor the situation going beyond the next Wednesday down there. I say that because there is still a chance the pattern could deal the Florida peninsula another major cold outbreak as we get into the middle of January.

[NDG]

Still no signs that the FL Peninsula will experience anything as cold as we experienced in December over the next 6-10 days at least.

[northjaxpro]

Still no signs that the FL Peninsula will experience anything as cold as we experienced in December over the next 6-10 days at least.

I agree. Going through the next 7 days, most of the peninsula from the I-4 corridor southward should not have to deal with any substantial cold, certainly not to the magnitude of what we had in December. Where I am in NE FL and other interior colder locations of the northern peninsula and panhandle, there will be chances of seeing light freezes (upper 20s-lower 30s) Friday And Saturday morning.

Hopefully the peninsula will be spared this month with no arctic outbreaks. However, I won't feel good about this until we get past the Jan.15-20 period. It is during this period that the model guidance is showing a significant arctic air intrusion coming south down through Plains and TN Valley region. I hope the core of that airmass gets shunted away from the peninsula, but we just will continue to monitor the trends with the models in the days to come.

BTW, I measured just over an inch of rain early this evening. This is the first time I have measured this much rain in a single day since late September 2010. My goodness this rain was so badly needed as we finished 2010 with about a 19 inch rain deficit. We will take it anyway we can get it for sure!

[HURRICANELONNY]

Isn't it suppose to snow or mix precip Sunday-Monday in Jacksonville? Deep south snow storm is possible for there early next week.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, there is a very potent shortwave coming through the Deep South late this upcoming weekend into Monday. It appears that enough cold air will be in place for areas across AL, GA into the Carolinas to receive wintry precipitation. It looks to be a significant rainmaker across Jax and North Florida. Thermal profiles too warm for any frozen precip across this area at least for now that the models are indicating with this next system.

[NDG]

Still no signs that the FL Peninsula will experience anything as cold as we experienced in December over the next 6-10 days at least.

I agree. Going through the next 7 days, most of the peninsula from the I-4 corridor southward should not have to deal with any substantial cold, certainly not to the magnitude of what we had in December. Where I am in NE FL and other interior colder locations of the northern peninsula and panhandle, there will be chances of seeing light freezes (upper 20s-lower 30s) Friday And Saturday morning.

Hopefully the peninsula will be spared this month with no arctic outbreaks. However, I won't feel good about this until we get past the Jan.15-20 period. It is during this period that the model guidance is showing a significant arctic air intrusion coming south down through Plains and TN Valley region. I hope the core of that airmass gets shunted away from the peninsula, but we just will continue to monitor the trends with the models in the days to come.

BTW, I measured just over an inch of rain early this evening. This is the first time I have measured this much rain in a single day since late September 2010. My goodness this rain was so badly needed as we finished 2010 with about a 19 inch rain deficit. We will take it anyway we can get it for sure!

Yeah, I agree. I am more concerned about the Jan 15-20 period as both the GFS and Euro show a very cold polar vortex in our side of the hemisphere that could make it this way, especially if the AO & NAO bottom out again. But still too early to tell. Keeping my fingers crossed.