Florida winter thread 2010-11

[NDG]

I think the hard freeze warning will bust for a good deal of the tampa cwa.

Yeah, I was thinking the same about that hard freeze warning coverage for your area, it was a bit exaggerated, especially that it included immediate coastal areas.

[DESTRUCTION5]

NOW...
ATLANTIC CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PUSHING SOUTH AND DISSIPATING AT THE COAST
WHERE THE AIR IS MUCH DRIER. THIS ONSHORE TRAJECTORY HAS SLIGHTLY
MODIFIED THE AIR MASS ALONG THE COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD
TO THE TREASURE COAST...AND KEPT TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S.
HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ON THE VOLUSIA COAST...IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SNOW FLURRIES COULD OCCUR THERE
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE ATLANTIC CLOUDS PUSH ONTO THE BARRIER
ISLANDS.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Not calling for cold or even modified Artic air next weekend 1/22. Although big difference between GFS/Euro. Last cold front pretty much the same thing and it came anyways. Have to wait and see for future runs.

The forecast confidence is high between now and Wednesday with
more uncertainty toward the end of the work week for the temperatures.
GFS continues to show a weaker front...while the European model (ecmwf) shows an
earlier and more well-defined front. For now the forecast follows the
mex guidance with the possibility that the forecast be cooler than
currently forecast for the end of the work week.

[NDG]

No freezes for central & south FL through next weekend
GFS & Euro have come to agreement with the Arctic shot for the end of the week for the eastern US that its core will stay north of the Peninsula, temps for this weekend will only be slightly cooler than average for most.

[Patrick99]

I saw lightning and thunder today....not very January-like weather at all, but fun - I miss the storms.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Looking at the latest AO forecast. The outlook should stay positive into Feb. Not looking like any freezes down here through Jan.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... l#forecast

[Patrick99]

With January nearing its end, I think it's safe to say that in South Florida at least, we have seen the worst of our "winter," and it happened in December.

Worth noting that in January, while much of the South has been cold and snowy, South Florida weather has been rather uneventful.

[Scorpion]

I sure am tired of the cold and am loving this weather now. Hopefully the rest of winter remains warm.

[Patrick99]

Looks like Saturday night/Sunday morning is supposed to be on the chilly side, but nothing crazy. Then the wind swings around to the NE quickly and things get warmer. The way our winter is supposed to be.

Last couple days, we've even had seabreeze-initiated convection down here......very late May-like weather.

[HURRICANELONNY]

What does this mean for temps. Here in S. Fl?

much cooler and drier air mass
may again return to South Florida next Wednesday into
Thursday...with the latest guidance showing 1000-850mb
thicknesses dropping to around 1290m in the lake region by late
next Wednesday.

[NDG]

With a NAO & AO staying positive as forecasted by the GFS ensembles, S FL will escape the Arctic airmass that is visiting much of the continental US, even here in central FL. I know that the operational GFS & Euro showed freezing temps for FL next week, but I doubt it. TX into parts of the MS River valley will be likely be the coldest once again for next week here in the Deep South.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Good to know. I don't mind cooler. But colder. I'm done with it. Especially since where my mother lives. She puts on the heat when it gets below 50!. And I pay the electric bill at her house.

[northjaxpro]

The Tampa NWS WFO mets are now finally acknowledging the for the first time the potential of the next modifying arctic air mass moving down into the FL peninsula next week.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
118 PM EST WED FEB 2 2011

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY. AS
THIS LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD IT WILL PULL A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS (POPS 30
PERCENT) ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHERN PENINSULA. DURING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO
THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN COVERING
THE CONUS. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS (POPS 20 PERCENT) CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.

DURING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES (POPS 30 TO 40 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. EVEN
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DRAWS SOME OF THE COLD ARCTIC AIR
MASS COVERING THE EASTERN U.S. SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON A BRISK
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WIND FLOW.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Definitely cooler next week. Colder? Don't know yet. Here in Hollywood.

Next week...the GFS and the European model (ecmwf) differ on the timing and
strength of next week's cold front, however a much drier and
Continental airmass will make a return to the region. The GFS
indicates a substantial cold front working through the area late
Monday with a stronger reinforcing shot middle week, however the
European model (ecmwf) is a touch weaker (warmer) with a pair of fronts moving
through Tuesday morning and then Thursday. At this time timing and temperatures are
hard to nail down, but it does appear the cooler and less humid
conditions will return.

[northjaxpro]

An excerpt from the Tampa WFO AFD long range. The mets continue to agree with the models bringing back colder air into the peninsula next week. They are waiting on consistency as to just how cold it will get.


LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...


MODELS ARE ALSO COMING IN MUCH COLDER FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD
BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT. WITH A STRONG HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NW
AND GOOD NORTH FLOW...THINK THAT COLDER TEMPS ARE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY...BUT NOT GOING TO GO WITH THE MID 20S FOR OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AS THE MEX IS ADVERTISING NOW. HAVE TRENDED A GOOD BIT
DOWNWARDS...AND WILL WAIT FOR MORE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS BEFORE
DROPPING TEMPS ANY MORE.

[psyclone]

this year is the meteorlogical equivalent of christmas in july. we're enjoying or enduring (depending on your perspective...mine is the latter) el nino in la nina.

[JonathanBelles]

this year is the meteorlogical equivalent of christmas in july. we're enjoying or enduring (depending on your perspective...mine is the latter) el nino in la nina.

Yep, thanks to NAO (i think, havent had time to look). But, I love this winter so far with the exception to the Tallahassee all day Drizzles. Fog and Mist still have not lifted here, and at this point wont.

[Patrick99]

From Miami discussion:

"IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF WARMING TREND ON THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. SO COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN
BY LATE IN THE WEEK. BUT WITH THESE COLD FRONTS, MOST OF THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH."

So there you have it. Doesn't look like anything too impressive for SFL.

[northjaxpro]

Freezing temps look to make a return likely by the end of this week here in Jacksonville, with possible lows in the 20s in the colder interior areas

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
526 AM EST SAT FEB 5 2011


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY


ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
THIS WILL SEND YET ANOTHER GULF LOW IN OUR DIRECTION. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO TIMING BUT THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME IS LOOKING LIKE THE TARGETED TIME FOR
RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL
PLUNGE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS SE GA. ANOTHER FREEZE IS ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY NIGHT AS MORE OF A RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT UNFOLDS WITH
A 1030 MB HIGH SETTLING OVERHEAD.

[vbhoutex]

this year is the meteorlogical equivalent of christmas in july. we're enjoying or enduring (depending on your perspective...mine is the latter) el nino in la nina.

Yep, thanks to NAO (i think, havent had time to look). But, I love this winter so far with the exception to the Tallahassee all day Drizzles. Fog and Mist still have not lifted here, and at this point wont.

Now that sounds like the winters I remember in Tallahassee.