Major East Coast Snowstorm this Weekend?

[ronjon]

The last several runs of the GFS as well as some operational runs of the ECM the last few days have shown a major coastal low developing off of SE Virginia late Saturday. Latest 12Z GFS model indicates a major snowstorm from Richmond to Boston on Sunday.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I have been watching the GFS runs closely the last couple of days. The runs for the next 48 hours will hopefully give us some good indication as to what should transpire this weekend about this potential winter storm. This storm looks to develop somewhere either off the DELMARVA region or off the New England coast. Just a matter of how close to the coast the storm will be and how strong it is poised to get this weekend.

I did notice that the latest run depicted last night was trending colder as compared to earlier runs the past 36-48 hours. A lot depends on how the blocking pattern over Greenland pans out. It seems that the Omega Block looks to continue to be anchored there which would maintain the current persistent cold upper trough across the Eastern CONUS for at least for another seven to ten days.

[ronjon]

HPCs thoughts this afternoon:

12Z/14 MODELS: THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS SO FAR IS THE DEEP
OUTLIER AND CREATES A MAJOR SNOWSTORM THIS WEEKEND FOR THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENG. THIS STORM IS FORECAST ALMOST EXACTLY ONE
YEAR AFTER LAST YEARS MID ATLANTIC HUGE EVENT ON THE 19TH OF DEC.
SPOOKY! THE 12Z/14 GEFS MEAN IS A MORE MODEST VERSION OF ITS
DETERMINISTIC COUNTERPART BUT STILL PORTENDS A MAJOR SNOWSTORM FOR
THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. THE UKMET SOLUTION IS FLATTER WHILE
STILL BRINGING SOME PCPN TO THE MID ATLANTIC....WHILE THE CANADIAN
HAS LITTLE AMPLITUDE AND WOULD SCOOT A FLAT WAVE OUT TO SEA.
MANUAL PROGS WILL HEDGE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW OFF THE E COAST ABOUT
A DEGREE TO THE WEST FOR DAYS 5-6...NEXT SUN/MON. THE NEW ECMWF
DEEPENS A VIGOROUS STORM SUN BUT IT IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO BE A
HEAVY SN THREAT TO THE MAJOR METRO AREAS FROM RIC TO BOS.
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LIGHT SN EVENT MOSTLY ON THE E
SIDE OF I-95 THIS COMING WEEKEND....RA TO THE S THRU AL/GA AND THE
CAROLINAS

[Nimbus]

You never know with these coastal events, sometimes they develop and track too far off shore other times they dry slot most of the coastal cities etc. This particular event appears to have ridging over Greenland steering it. that would track the storm closer to the coast and delay the exit.

[Stephanie]

That forecast is pretty spooky since it's almost a year to the day from last year's first major snow. We normally do not get anything during December - perhaps a few inches at best. Lord I hope this winter is not a continuation of last winter!

[frigidice77]

These snowstorms are always bust. Not being negative I personally wouldnt count on it happening.

[TwisterFanatic]

These snowstorms are always bust. Not being negative I personally wouldnt count on it happening.

Yea, like the 3 big ones that happened last year.

[Ntxw]

The GFS did a poor job with the last storm, which early on it depicted as an Appalachian storm up to the northeast. The Euro/Canadian won out with the Great Lakes solution. I would be hesitant to buy into the GFS solution due to that track record (for now) until at least one other global model supports the idea, both Canadian and Euro bring it out to sea.

[frigidice77]

These snowstorms are always bust. Not being negative I personally wouldnt count on it happening.

Yea, like the 3 big ones that happened last year.

Are you agreeing with me or disagreeing?

[Brent]

These snowstorms are always bust. Not being negative I personally wouldnt count on it happening.

Yea, like the 3 big ones that happened last year.

Are you agreeing with me or disagreeing?

LOL

[angelwing]

I hope we get something, at least more than what I woke up to at 4AM! I want a White Christmas!

[frigidice77]

Pennsylvania sees a white christmas every year if im not mistaking. Do the models still show that storm, I dont understand them that well.

[Nimbus]

Latest Gray Maine advisory still has this feature stalling in the gulf of Maine.

THINGS GET INTERESTING SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE CAROLINAS AND HEADS NORTHEAST. LATEST GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING
FARTHER WEST WITH THIS STORM AND NOW BRINGS IT NORTHEAST OFF THE
COAST OF CAPE COD ON SUNDAY BEFORE STALLING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BOTTOM LINE IS A CHANCE FOR THE
FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE YEAR FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE.
STILL A LONG WAYS OUT AND A LOT CAN HAPPEN BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

EKSTER

[cycloneye]

The 12z ECMWF shows a big nor'easter by next Monday.

[srainhoutx]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
141 PM EST THU DEC 16 2010

VALID 12Z SUN DEC 19 2010 - 12Z THU DEC 23 2010


...INCREASING THREAT OF MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER STORM...
...CONTINUED HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEST...

EXTREME HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK TO RETROGRADE TO NCENTRAL CANADA
LOCKING IN TROFS OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN ATLC MID TO LATE
PERIOD. PRIOR TO THAT FAST ZONAL PAC FLOW CONTS TO DRIVE INTO THE
WEST AND EASTERN THRU THE PLAINS WITH A FIRST RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE COMING TOWARDS THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND ROTATING NWD
WITH A DEEP OFF SHORE STORM FOLLOWED BY BRIEFLY ZONAL FLOW AGAIN
WITH EMBEDDED WAEKER SHORTWAVES COMING ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE
EAST.

UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS BLENDED THE 00Z UKMET WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
ENS MEAN DAYS 3 TO 5.
THIS KEPT UP A WIND AND COASTAL SNOW THREAT ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST DAYS 4-5 LATE SUN INTO TUES. OPERATIONAL RUNS OF 00Z ECMWF
AND GFS HAVE REVERSED SOLUTIONS SINCE YTDAS 12Z RUNS WITH THE N
ATLC LOW. LAGGED AVERAGE FORECAST OF LAST 4 RUNS OF BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF PREFERRED KEEPING THE SFC LOW EAST OF THE 00Z OP ECMWF
CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN AND EASILY CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND.

12Z GFS HAS SWITCHED BACK TO A DEEPER MUCH CLOSER IN LOW CLOSE TO
YTDAS 12Z GFS AND CURRENT 00Z ECMWF TAKING A 980 MB OFF CAPE COD.
THIS SCENARIO FOLLOWS YTDAS HPC PROGS AND THINKING AS MODELS BEGIN
TO CONVERGE ON A MORE AGREED UPON SOLUTION WITH GOOD HPC FORECAST
CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAY. 12Z UKMET NOW DEEPER AND A BIT FARTHER
OFF WHILE THE OP CMC HAS A 976 MB LOW NEAR THE NORTHEAST BENCHMARK
AT 40/70 WHILE ECMWF HAS ITS 975 MB LOW NEAR BLOCK ISLAND SOUND.
NAVY NOGAPS ALSO DEEP AND CLOSE IN TO CAPE COD. GFS ENS MEANS A
BIT EAST BUT MEAN PCPN SHOWING A SIG PCPN EVENT OVER COASTAL MA.
AFTN PROGS WILL ADJUST SLIGHTLY WEST HAVING A DEEP LOW NEAR THE
NORTHEAST BENCHMARK. MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON THIS SOLUTION WITH
INCREASED FORECASTER CONFIDNECE.

RAPID DEEPENING INDICATED BY 12Z GFS/CMC/00Z AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS
FOLLOWS DYNAMICS AND THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED BAROCLINICITY DUE
TO THE DE STABILIZATION OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS FROM THE
RECENT COLD AIR OUTBREAK MEETING. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT OF A
SNOW EVENT ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST FROM EASTERN VA UP THE COAST
AND ESPECIALLY A HEAVY SNOW THREAT FOR COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. SOME
ADDITIONAL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT MADE FROM THIS MORNINGS PRELIMS
WITH AFTN UPDATED PROGS INCLUDING OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS AND 12Z CMC.
HIGH WIND AND SNOW THREAT NEW ENG COAST LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

NEXT CLIPPER TYPE OF LOW ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD IN ITS TRACK THAN GFS
TO COME THRU THE SRN APPLCHNS AND OFF NC COAST TUES. BLEND OF
GFS/ECMWF ENS MADE WHICH ALSO MATCHES A LAGGED AVERAGE FORECAST
FOR DAYS 6 AND 7.

HVY/EXCESSIVE PCPN THREAT THRU THE PERIOD CONTINUES OVER ALL OF CA
AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT BASIN AND SRN ROCKIES AND SHOULD CONTINUE
BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEH CONTINUOS ONSHORE MID LEVEL
FLOW AND OCCASSIONAL FRONTS. 5 DAY LIQUID EQUIV TOTALS EXCEED 6-8
INCHES IN THE SIERRAS/COASTAL RANGES AND SAN DIEGO/LOS ANGELES
RANGES GIVING WEEKLY TOTAL POTENTIALS IN EXCESS OF 10-15 INCHES
OVER FAVORBLE TERRAIN.

CLIPPER TYPE LIGHT PCPN EVENT EXPECTED FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
MID ATLC REGION MON INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF
WIDESPREAD BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS OVER THE ERN THIRD OF CONUS.

ROSENSTEIN

[Ntxw]

You know what's funny, lately the theme has been when the GFS goes one way, the Euro goes another only to have both flip when one does lol. This has been going on for days. And to an extent even the last storm.

[cpdaman]

euro takes verbatim is a snow bomb of at least moderate duration for NYC thru ORH...

mixing issues likely on coast/ se mass over to rain C.C unless it tracks further out.

qpf looks robust 1.5 -2.30 inches from NYC thru SNE.

Any promets around thinking this thing will stall near block island mon....for a real block buster? I mean with this blocking in place this is what major hisoric storms have in common do they not?

possible historic nor'easter.

[Nimbus]

IF it stalls and bombs it could be a record breaker. Historically most of the really big snowmakers moved slow enough for the wrap around precipitation to fill in and prolong the accumulations.

[Stephanie]

These snowstorms are always bust. Not being negative I personally wouldnt count on it happening.

You need to back up your "predictions" with support like NWS data, models, etc. This maybe your opinion but we have a lot of people that come to this website for information and not wishcasting.

[Stephanie]

Pennsylvania sees a white christmas every year if im not mistaking. Do the models still show that storm, I dont understand them that well.

Depends upon where in Pennsylvania you're talking about. The northern tier, Pittsburgh and Poconos have a much better chance of seeing a White Christmas than the southern tier, Harrisburg, York, Philadelphia and Easton.

You need to start to do some research.