Siberian Express January/February 2011

[Texas Snowman]

With the signals and models beginning to chirp about the possibility of extreme - and perhaps HISTORIC - cold weather early next week down the lee side of the Rockies, I decided to create a thread for this Siberian Express.

Since it is already being covered well in the Southern Plains (Texas Winter Weather and Southern Plains Winter Weather) if you don't mind, tend to keep items in this thread related to weather news, model output, forecasts outside of the Southern Plains (i.e. Montana, Wyoming, northern Plains, etc.).


Texas Snowman

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Siberian Express Alert.

Pipe splitting weather alert.

Firewood pile and natural gas supply alert.

Perhaps this will end up being a bust, but at this point, signals and models are pointing at the possibility of HISTORIC cold which could be in the offing next week.

From OKC weather service from this morning's forecast discussion:

From OKC this morning:

SYSTEM DUE INTO THE TX/OK AREA THIS WEEKEND IS TRENDING TOWARD A
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK ACROSS TX. WE WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE S SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS LOOKS MOST LIKELY TO BE A
COLD LIGHT-RAIN EVENT IF IT HAPPENS THIS FAR N... BUT WITH
CANADIAN AIR BECOMING INVOLVED WE CANT BE TOO SURE. RAIN/SNOW MIX
WILL BE MAINTAINED CENTRAL/SW SAT NIGHT ALTHOUGH ANY WINTER-TYPE
PRECIP COULD BE ALMOST ANY VARIETY. WHATEVER HAPPENS THIS WEEKEND
IS LIKELY TO BE A MERE APPETIZER AHEAD OF THE MAIN COURSE OVER
THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

MORE ATTENTION CONTINUES TO TURN TO THE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
TURN OF EVENTS NEXT WEEK. BIG RIDGE WILL BUILD N INTO ALASKA BY
LATE WEEKEND... SUPPORTING A SIZEABLE BUILDUP OF ARCTIC AIR OVER W
CANADA AND DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS INTO SW CANADA AND NW CONUS.
FORMATION OF A 500-MB 575-580 HIGH OVER AK... WHICH HAS BEEN
ADVERTIZED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW... GENERALLY
DOES NOT TURN OUT WELL - FOR MOST OF THE LOWER 48 MUCH LESS THE S
PLAINS. GFS SFC-T PROGS FOR NEXT TUESDAY ARE UNPRECEDENTED AS FAR
AS THIS FORECASTER CAN RECALL... AND IF TAKEN LITERALLY WOULD
IMPLY THAT PARTS OF MT/WY WOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS OF -30F
NEXT TUESDAY. THAT SEEMS A WEE BIT EXTREME... BUT IN ANY EVENT THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A TURN TOWARD SIGNIFICANT AND
POTENTIALLY SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IN SOME WAY SHAPE OR FORM - THE
STUFF NATIONAL HEADLINES ARE MADE OF - BY SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.

COLD AIR IS LIKELY TO BEGIN INVADING THE PACNW AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND AND ROLL SE THEREAFTER. AT
THIS TIME WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND A FASTER INVASION OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE S PLAINS NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT. WHAT HAPPENS AFTER
THAT IS HARD TO SAY. BITTER COLD... SNOW AND/OR ICE... OR PERHAPS
ALL OF THE ABOVE. SUFFICE TO SAY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TROUBLESOME.

[vbhoutex]

Good idea TS. My suggestion would be that we keep local or localized discussions just that and use this thread for overall effects types of discussions. Posts just like TS's and discussion of them is what I am talking about vs "How cold is it going to get in Houston" types of posts. Thanks for doing this TS.
From all accounts so far it appears this could be a historic outbreak for just about everywhere it affects. Definitely keeping my eyes open on this one. More to come as I have more time to look at models, discussions, etc.

[srainhoutx]

I'll add my agreement to this as well TS and vbhoutex. Perhaps we can post graphics and modeling in this thread and take our regional discussions to their appropriate threads. With the potential impacts from such an event we are seeing in the medium and longer range, a main discussion thread on the overall threat for CONUS is as prudent as we have for tropical systems, except on a much larger scale, IMO for what it’s worth.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Looks like at this point we are looking at a potential 1983 or 1989 event here? Am I wrong?

[somethingfunny]

Looks like at this point we are looking at a potential 1983 or 1989 event here? Am I wrong?

Some of these model runs are suggesting we break records, but since we all know they bounce around run-to-run....man, there's enough consistency that I'd be willing to peg about 50% odds of at least an event on par with 1996.

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[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS continues the trend and depicts a 1062 mb Arctic High in Western Canada...

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro is suggesting a 1065 mb Arctic High in the NW Territories Of Canada heading S @ 174 hours.

[Portastorm]

The 12Z Euro is suggesting a 1065 mb Arctic High in the NW Territories Of Canada heading S @ 174 hours.

Yeah and unlike the Euro 0z which appeared to aim the coldest of the cold to our north and east ... the 12z Euro has a trajectory right down the lee-side of the Rockies and directly into the Southern Plains!

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro out ...The cold air is just ridiculous I mean my God!

1065-1070 High sliding down from Canada

[northjaxpro]

A 1062 mb High? WOW!!!

That is just absolutely an unbelievably incredible amount of bitterly arctic cold being depicted with that model run!

I remember during the December 22-24, 1989 arctic outbreak over the Eastern 2/3 of the CONUS, A 1052 mb High dropped down from the same region into the country and many record cold temperatures were set everyone.

If this run comes close to verifying, my goodness, we could be potentially looking at some ridiculous record cold across the country that we have not seen in many many years.

[Portastorm]

Yeah, locales from Texas through the Deep South into Florida are probably going to be dealing with this one. Everyone south of the Mason-Dixon Line better brush up on their "protecting pipes" knowledge.

[Texas Snowman]

I'm betting that this is going to be far worse than 1996 - based on what model output and consistency has been thus far.

IMO, this will rival the two cold snaps in the 1980s - maybe not as long as 1983 but probably as severe as 1989.

Yeah, this may well be a pipe splitter, water mains could freeze and burst, lakes will freeze over, etc. Could even see some school shut downs due to energy demand and companies being forced to prioritize where energy goes (that happened in Texas and Oklahoma during the 1983 event).

Of course, all of this is if what is in the forecast pipeline actually comes to fruition...

[Texas Snowman]

While I'm thinking about it, can anyone help me out here: what was the set-up for the 1899 arctic blast and blizzard that set so many records east of the Rockies?

[Ivanhater]

I don't think I have EVER seen an image like the Euro above. It is historically cold and it virtually spills into the entire U.S. I'm speechless, and if someone told be this is a La Nina winter, I would laugh hysterically.

[northjaxpro]

This set-up is looking every bit as bad or possibly worse than the December 1989 arctic outbreak that I referenced in my above post on this page.

[Portastorm]

I'm betting that this is going to be far worse than 1996 - based on what model output and consistency has been thus far.

IMO, this will rival the two cold snaps in the 1980s - maybe not as long as 1983 but probably as severe as 1989.

Yeah, this may well be a pipe splitter, water mains could freeze and burst, lakes will freeze over, etc. Could even see some school shut downs due to energy demand and companies being forced to prioritize where energy goes (that happened in Texas and Oklahoma during the 1983 event).

Of course, all of this is if what is in the forecast pipeline actually comes to fruition...

I've been reluctant to mention 1983 or 1989 myself because those were such extreme events. However, we're now working on several cycles of GFS and Euro runs showing this ridiculous cold. We could indeed be looking at one for the ages here if the Euro verifies.

[northjaxpro]

I agree with you Ivanhater. I never thought we would be seeing such a brutally cold winter in an expected La Nina pattern which was forecast to linger into March 2011.

However, Mother Nature had other ideas in mind with the unexpectedly strong Negative NAO and AO that's been in place since late November 2010 that's for sure.

[Tireman4]

You know what would be cool. Dan talked about this on the KHOU forum in response to my question..."Is there Gulf Effect Snow"? He said yes. Wonder would that happen if the air was so cold that the warm waters would cause it ?

[Portastorm]

You know what would be cool. Dan talked about this on the KHOU forum in response to my question..."Is there Gulf Effect Snow"? He said yes. Wonder would that happen if the air was so cold that the warm waters would cause it ?

Maybe ol' Dan is putting a good word in for us with The Big Guy upstairs!

[vbhoutex]

IFthe model runs remain consistent in showing this bitter arctic cold surge I would guess many records will fall and not just in the South. I wouldn't be surprised if some are broken even in areas like Montana, Wyoming and the Dakotas. I have never seen a high that deep in all my years of watching weather. I don't know how strong they were in 1983 and 1989, but I know it was freaking pipe bursting cold even here in Houston to the tune of millions of dollars worth of damage. I am not willing to predict that at this point, but it does have my rapt attention till it does or doesn't happen.