Siberian Express January/February 2011

[lrak]

Alright Portastorm thank you, my wife and daughter are flying to New York next week is why I came here first. I know that the public pro mets have to follow protocol and you guys read between the lines and speculate. Love it.

Any ideas of the conditions up there around the 13th and 14th?

[Ntxw]

GFS keeps the idea of building cold. A 1040's high pressure system will emerge as the initial surge followed by continuous HP assault, 1056 and 1060 respectively.

[BigB0882]

Wow, so each HP is stronger than the one before? That could be the recipe for record breaking cold, right? Isn't that a similar scenario to what happened in the 80's?

[Ntxw]

Wow, so each HP is stronger than the one before? That could be the recipe for record breaking cold, right? Isn't that a similar scenario to what happened in the 80's?

Then it holds everything before the motherload of cold comes.

[Ivanhater]

00z GFS is pretty fast in retreating the cold. I'm not sure why though sense the reinforcing High is moving in. Seems to be degrading the High too fast.

[Ntxw]

00z GFS is pretty fast in retreating the cold. I'm not sure why though sense the reinforcing High is moving in. Seems to be degrading the High too fast.

I don't think the chill will really go away as depicted by the GFS, but the idea is what I have been thinking, one after another until the big one. Much like that of big cold snaps of year's passed.

Even thought it doesn't show as cold as I've thought, I can honestly say this is the first time I've ever seen the -40c line in North America on any Model.

[wall_cloud]

the GFS is infamous for eroding the cold wedge too quickly. Don't expect that to happen unless we get an impressive wave approaching from the west that induces strong lee cyclogenesis. Doubtful that it occurs when the longwave trof positioned where it appears to be setting up.

[Texas Snowman]

the GFS is infamous for eroding the cold wedge too quickly. Don't expect that to happen unless we get an impressive wave approaching from the west that induces strong lee cyclogenesis. Doubtful that it occurs when the longwave trof positioned where it appears to be setting up.

I was just about to post that very thought that the GFS is often way too fast in eroding cold.

All in all, from where I sit, the models keep reinforcing the idea that a LONG stretch of cold weather is coming up for the southern Great Plains.

And with the right combination of cold air reinforcements, a couple of strong highs building south, and perhaps even a little snow cover to keep the air frigid, I have a strong feeling that January 2011 will join the line of Dec. 1983, Dec. 1989, Jan/Feb. 1996 as the most memorable and severe cold snaps of our lifetime.

[BigB0882]

Can someone help me read this? I am more interested in if I have an understanding of the timing:

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kbtr.txt

If the 00z model comes out about 11pm Central time, then can I assume anytime I see a 00z they are predicting conditions at about 11pm my time? Then it is every 6 hours after? So 11pm, 5am, 11am and 5pm? I am looking at the very end of the time frame when the cold really shows up. I am trying to figure out the times of those temps. I am assuming the 12z reading on 1/12 of 26F would be in the middle of the night but if I go by my timing then that is 11am. Looking back it seems the 12z reading are always cooler so I must have something mixed up. Can anyone help explain the timing of those GFS runs?

[orangeblood]

Can someone help me read this? I am more interested in if I have an understanding of the timing:

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kbtr.txt

If the 00z model comes out about 11pm Central time, then can I assume anytime I see a 00z they are predicting conditions at about 11pm my time? Then it is every 6 hours after? So 11pm, 5am, 11am and 5pm? I am looking at the very end of the time frame when the cold really shows up. I am trying to figure out the times of those temps. I am assuming the 12z reading on 1/12 of 26F would be in the middle of the night but if I go by my timing then that is 11am. Looking back it seems the 12z reading are always cooler so I must have something mixed up. Can anyone help explain the timing of those GFS runs?

00 Zula is 6pm Central Time and 12 Zula is 6am Central Time. Those temps are the approximate temp at that time of the day. The accumulation charts are for what has accumulated up to that point in time. It's getting late so I hope this makes sense.

[BigB0882]

That makes perfect sense, thank you!

[Scott Patterson]

While I'm thinking about it, can anyone help me out here: what was the set-up for the 1899 arctic blast and blizzard that set so many records east of the Rockies?

I don't know if anyone knows since there we're things like satellite back then.

The unique thing about the 1899 cold snap was that it was nation wide coast to coast. Most of the records were set east of the Rockies, but also west. Woodruff Utah for example hit -50F, an official state record which wasn't broken (but tied in 1913) until 1984 (and then only because there were instruments set up in remote areas) [1984 record broken again in 1985 which record still remains]. The Woodruff record is still however the coldest temperature ever recorded in a town in Utah (isolated ranches and unpopulated mountain valleys have gotten colder). Places like the area around Yellowstone also saw near record breaking temperatures. Besides Woodruff UT, the western-most all time record I know of was Billings Montana, though all states, even on the west coast reported extremely cold temperatures (with California dropping to -30F).

The 1899 cold snap seems to be the only recorded severe cold snap that covered the entire United States coast to coast. More than Nationwide, it covered almost all of North America including much of Mexico, the Carribean and even Central America. Even much of Cuba was hit by killing frost.

[richtrav]

There is a good writeup on the 1899 event here:

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10. ... 2.0.CO%3B2

[Ntxw]

Pretty much the standard ultimate cold snap here in Texas as well 1899 was. I don't think we will see anything like that in our lifetime, but who knows. This possible cold snap would be only the tip of the iceberg compared to that!

[Scott Patterson]

Looking at all the 15 day forecast for many cities in the United States, I can't find any that are predicting record cold for next week? I checked Texas, Montana, Oklahoma, Colorado, Illinois, Florida, Georgia, etc.

Even here the coldest predicted is -15F. Places like Havre MT (a town usually severely affected by cold snaps on the lee side of the Rockies) or Bismarck ND aren't supposed to be unusually cold with temperatures only slightly below zero. Amarillo TX is supposed to drop into the mid teens, but that's not unusual. Oklahoma City is supposed to be around +20F. The coldest Chicago is supposed to hit next week is +12F, hardly unusual.

Apparently this severe cold snap isn't going to happen, at least not next week?

[PTPatrick]

Scott, the latest model guidance is not showing any major cold domes dropping until late next week, toward the 10 day period. There will still be a cool down Sunday but the models showing next weeks deep freeze are all now featuring weaker high pressure over Western Canada, and generally warmer temps, and temps not making it as far south in the US. I can buy that things may not get unusally cold up north, but I suspect the models are having their usual issues resolving cold air and how far south it will get. But early next week isnt whn thr really bad stuff is supposed to be sitting over th montana boarder. So it seems, there will be a quick cool down, which for this area could i think be colder than the last, followed by a brief 2-3 day warm up while the airmass reloads in canada. I am guessing even the Monday airmass will creep south further thant he models showed...that is just the nature of these things. The thing to note on the models is they still show major high pressure late next week and cold in central canada, (albiet slightly less than before), they just vary in who/what/when gets dumped on.

For denver its looking like snow sunday, with cold temps monday and tuesday back into the 20s for highs. no below zero highs yet here. Wednesday and thursday we may break 32, but who knows. Late next week is looking more and more like the time to watch for anything crazy and there is plenty of time.

[TigerCraig]

When does the new Euro come out?

Or any new models for that matter?

[srainhoutx]

When does the new Euro come out?

Or any new models for that matter?

12Z GFS will start shortly followed by the Canadian/UKMET and the Euro between noon and 1PM CST.

[TigerCraig]

Great!

Thanks

[tugreenie]

what about the Gulf Coast area of Ms and Al??