Siberian Express January/February 2011

[Ptarmigan]

There is a good writeup on the 1899 event here:

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10. ... 2.0.CO%3B2

The February 1899 Freeze has to be the largest freeze in American history. It beats the December 1983, January 1985, and December 1989 Freeze.

[Texas Snowman]

No question about that.

It's the Cat 5 of winter weather.

And we're overdue for another Cat 5 winter weather event that is coast to coast, top to bottom across the U.S.

Edit: I never thought that this event would be an 1899 event, but I did think (still wonder) if it will turn out like 1983 and/or 1989.

After all, that Vodka cold of 79 below zero in Siberia, if we could somehow get tapped into that...

[Scott Patterson]

It beats the December 1983, January 1985, and December 1989 Freeze.

Certainly.

The December 1989 cold snap for example, never even made it over the Continental Divide. Most areas in the US west of the divide were much milder than normal in December 1989. If someone mentions the cold spell of 1989 to someone living west of the Continental Divide, they may be inclined to think that you are reffering to February 1989 rather than December 1989.

Here for example, compare the cold snap February 5-8 1989 compared to anything we had in December 1989.

February (specifically 5-8) 1989:

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KCAG/1989/2/14/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

December 1989:

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KCAG/1989/12/14/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

Many cities out west had their record cold temps in February 1989, but west of the divde it was unusally mild in December 1989. For example, Salt Lake City never dropped below +16F in December 1989, which is pretty unusual.

I have read before that the cold snaps in the 1700's and early 1800's may have equaled or surpassed the cold snap of 1899, but reliable weather records are not available. In 1774 for example, with the exception of the Florida Keys, most of Florida was covered with snow. There were no weather stations then though.

[Texas Snowman]

It beats the December 1983, January 1985, and December 1989 Freeze.

Certainly.

The December 1989 cold snap for example, never even made it over the Continental Divide. Most areas in the US west of the divide were much milder than normal in December 1989. If someone mentions the cold spell of 1989 to someone living west of the Continental Divide, they may be inclined to think that you are reffering to February 1989 rather than December 1989.

Here for example, compare the cold snap February 5-8 1989 compared to anything we had in December 1989.

February (specifically 5-8) 1989:

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KCAG/1989/2/14/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

December 1989:

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KCAG/1989/12/14/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

Many cities out west had their record cold temps in February 1989, but west of the divde it was unusally mild in December 1989. For example, Salt Lake City never dropped below +16F in December 1989, which is pretty unusual.

I have read before that the cold snaps in the 1700's and early 1800's may have equaled or surpassed the cold snap of 1899, but reliable weather records are not available. In 1774 for example, with the exception of the Florida Keys, most of Florida was covered with snow. There were no weather stations then though.

Kind of makes you wonder when the next "100 year" freeze is coming to the Lower 48....

[FireRat]

That 1774 Florida event, I've seen it somewhere and really gets my attention. Does anyone have some info on that event, it seems like that was a statewide snowstorm?

By the way I have a book titled "Tales of Old Florida", where several journal-like articles from different magazine writers of the late 1800's and early 1900's depict what Florida was like over 100 years ago and all of them tell stories of adventure, sailing and interaction with nature. The reason I mention this is because on the first article story in this book, there is an amazing account on an 1894 freeze, which caught the author of that particular article with his crew in the Florida Keys. The author, who goes by the name Charles Richards Dodge, wrote that as they were sailing from Long Key to Indian Key in mid February, they were caught by a norther which blew like crazy that afternoon and all night. It got to the point that by dawn their crew found another saiboat amid the rough seas with a pair of uncomfortable sailors described as "Being laden with ice and out of coffee". Dodge also mentioned the ongoing weather as "the chill, raw wind".

Based on this, it appears that the keys also saw freezing temperatures in the far past, I find that pretty impressive.

[richtrav]

I think the 1899 event was much more rare than a 100 year freeze, the fact that in over 200 years there has never been anything remotely comparable across N America speaks volumes.

Take a look back at history. Florida must have been pretty mild up until 1835. A freeze in the 1700s reportedly produced temperatures around 20F in Jacksonville and snow in North Florida, but the old citrus trees in St Augustine survived; in fact orange trees over 100 years old were known in St Augustine until Feb 1835 wiped them out. They were introduced to that area soon after the Spaniards settled there. There were also orchards of oranges up into SE Georgia until 1835, so there is ample evidence that extreme Arctic outbreaks in the style of 1835 or the 1890s/1980s are rare indeed, at least in the deep SE. Along the central Gulf hard freezes were noted in 1800 and 1823 in New Orleans but they did not sweep eastward. Likewise 1835 appears to have been less severe the farther west you went according to records from western Louisiana and anecdotal evidence from Texas. Piece that together with records from the rest of N America taken since records were kept and I think it's pretty safe to assume that Feb 1899 was the most extreme freeze event ever on the N American continent, sticking out like a sore thumb. It was no 100 year event.

Again, anyone interested in things like this must read Ludlum's Early American Winters. Many libraries have it, it's a two piece set. For people specifically interested in Florida there is a more recent book called A History of Florida Citrus Freezes which provides some good info on the freezes of 1886, 1894/5, and 1899 as well as the better documented freezes of the 20th century (Ludlum's book covers the 1835 freeze better IMHO). It also discusses the presumed mildness of the 18th century in Florida.

[TigerCraig]

When does the new Euro come out?

Or any new models for that matter?

12Z GFS will start shortly followed by the Canadian/UKMET and the Euro between noon and 1PM CST.

Can anyone point me to a website where I can check these out as they come out?

[iorange55]

When does the new Euro come out?

Or any new models for that matter?

12Z GFS will start shortly followed by the Canadian/UKMET and the Euro between noon and 1PM CST.

Can anyone point me to a website where I can check these out as they come out?

http://www.freewebs.com/cyclones/forecast.htm

Has just about all of them and http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html that website usually has the Euro up the fastest.

[TigerCraig]

Thanks a ton IOrange55!

[Ptarmigan]

Certainly.

The December 1989 cold snap for example, never even made it over the Continental Divide. Most areas in the US west of the divide were much milder than normal in December 1989. If someone mentions the cold spell of 1989 to someone living west of the Continental Divide, they may be inclined to think that you are reffering to February 1989 rather than December 1989.

Here for example, compare the cold snap February 5-8 1989 compared to anything we had in December 1989.

February (specifically 5-8) 1989:

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KCAG/1989/2/14/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

December 1989:

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KCAG/1989/12/14/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

Many cities out west had their record cold temps in February 1989, but west of the divde it was unusally mild in December 1989. For example, Salt Lake City never dropped below +16F in December 1989, which is pretty unusual.

I have read before that the cold snaps in the 1700's and early 1800's may have equaled or surpassed the cold snap of 1899, but reliable weather records are not available. In 1774 for example, with the exception of the Florida Keys, most of Florida was covered with snow. There were no weather stations then though.

I remember both the February and December 1989 freeze. February 1989 was a prolonged freeze. December 1989 was a hard freeze, but shorter. February freeze was a shallow freeze, while December freeze was a deep one.

[Tejas89]

February freeze was a shallow freeze, while December freeze was a deep one.

Dec. 23 at DFW: -1. The only "-" I have ever felt first hand, and it was probably closer to -3 in Plano (northern burb). Strangely I don't remember the cold that morning, walking the dog at 7:30. I remember vividly how quiet and still everything was, though, in the middle of a big city.

[vbhoutex]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

It is beginning to appear to me that this Arctic outbreak is going to be delayed about 24-36 hours from what was initially thought. The source regions in N and NW Canada are cold but they haven't loaded the the Siberian air yet, or hadn't earlier this afternoon. I think once they load then we will begin to see the beginning of at least a double barrel push that will indeed bring plenty of Arctic air all the way to the GOM and then some. The 2nd push appears to be the colder of the two and with more snowpack in place from the earlier push there will be less modification of cold air. The biggest question for most of this will be when will the cold air vs the available moisture get to wherever one is. That, of course, is especially true along the Gulf Coast where I live. I'm not sure there will be anything historic about this Arctic episode, but it appears to me that it will last for at least a week or more with the possibility of even more behind it. My thoughts are based on the models, and more so on the thoughts of several different professional mets that I have read.

[Macrocane]

The GFS has been backing off with the intensity off the event in Central America, in the last 2 days it has been showing a weaker ridge and a weaker pressure gradient in the region. The Euro is a little stronger but it is weaker than a few days ago too. Let's see if they begin a stronger trend in the next runs, it wouldn't be the first time that they weaken a ridge just to strengthen it again 2 or 3 days before the event.

[Scott Patterson]

I think the 1899 event was much more rare than a 100 year freeze, the fact that in over 200 years there has never been anything remotely comparable across N America speaks volumes.

It was certainly the most widespread recorded cold snap, but there may have been ones just as severe.

One of my books (Extreme Weather, 2007 edition) talks about three other severe cold snaps (but they may have not been nation wide); one in January and February 1835 (which I assume is the one you are referring to), one in January 1857 and one in January 1859.

According to the book temperatures in January 1835 (some of them far below the more modern official records) were -40F (at which temperature mercury freezes) in Bangor and Bath Maine and Montpelier and White River Vermont. In Conneticut, Hartford was -27F and New Haven -30F. Massachusetts logged in with -32F at Pittsfield and -30F in Williamstown. Sevannah Georgia dropped to 0F, 8 degress colder than the 1899 reading. Charleston South Carolina had 2F and St Augustine Florida had a high of 21F and a low of 7F.

Here are some of the temperatures recorded from the January 1857 cold snap with spirit thermometers; -52F at Bath ME (which is on the coast!), -51F at Franconia NH, -50F at Montpelier and Johnsbury VT (all of which are far below "modern" records). An official weather station at Norwhich VT recorded -44F. Boston reported an afternoon temperature of -8F and Boston suburbs such as Malden and West Newton reached -30F. On Cape Cod it was -24F at Wareham. New York City did manage to reach 0F that day.

The January 1859 cold snap produced the following temperatures; -44F at Montreal (the "modern" record low is -29F in 1933); Burlington Vermont had an afternoon (2 PM) temperature of -26F and dropped to at least -32F. Cambridge MA had -4.5 at 2PM. Nantucket Island was -12F. New York City never reached more than -3.8F in the afternoon.

In the late 1700s and 1800s snow fell in places like Bermuda (1784) and Cuba several times.

Information on western cold snaps isn’t readily available since few people were living in the west during that time. One thing that is known is that a severe cold snap hit in 1888. Randolph Utah recorded -65F; 15 degrees colder than any “modern” official record in an incorporated town in Utah.

While at first the temperature might seem unlikely, during the same time period the army also recorded -65F at Fort Keogh Montana; amazing since the modern record at the Miles City Airport (closest weather station) is only -38F.

Outside the Rocky Mountains, Minneapolis also recorded -41F during the same time period, which remains the coldest temperature recorded there.

If places such as Miles City and Randolph recorded -65F (and each of the two records seems to verify the other), it would be interesting to speculate how cold the normally colder locations actually got had there been anyone around with a thermometer to record it. If those two locations really did hit -65F, it would be reasonable to assume that places like West Yellowstone, Rogers Pass or Taylor Park could have easily been down in the -70F to -80F range; which of course would be incredible.

[DonWrk]

This thread has turned more into a history thread rather than a current event thread since we're not really looking at the extreme weather potential yet lol.

[srainhoutx]

This thread has turned more into a history thread rather than a current event thread since we're not really looking at the extreme weather potential yet lol.

While we wait and see what the pattern suggests/delivers, I see no harm in looking at past history of Arctic Outbreaks.

[DonWrk]

This thread has turned more into a history thread rather than a current event thread since we're not really looking at the extreme weather potential yet lol.

While we wait and see what the pattern suggests/delivers, I see no harm in looking at past history of Arctic Outbreaks.

Oh for sure, I don't have a problem with it either. Even though I wish we were talking about something big about to happen!

[MGC]

I enjoy the somewhat off topic history when discussing a potential threat compared to past events. I don't see an event like Dec 1989 any time soon.....MGC

[richtrav]

Scott, all those events you mentioned were certainly severe (especially the Feb 1835 outbreak in the SE), but for the most part all of those events concerned either the eastern or western part of N America. Locally yes, many places have replicated or exceeded 1899, but taken as a whole across the continent that event stands out spectacularly. I admit though I have a southern bias when looking at records (hey, it's supposed to get cold in the north in my mind). 1857 and '59 weren't even blips in Texas (1888 yes, that's an underrated freeze, but it failed to make it to FL). Tuscon still has a record low from Feb 1899, and the SW is almost never affected when severe cold outbreaks occur all the way to the eastern edge of the continent. Yes Feb 1835 was colder along the SE Atlantic coast just as Jan 1913 was worse in the SW. Even Texas had its lowest reading tied by 1899 in Feb 1933 but the two events were nowhere close in severity. You have to look at the intensity and sum of the effects of the event instead of a local record here or there, and that's where 1899 stands out. The thermometer doesn't sit at 10F at 1pm in Galveston every 100 years, it certainly didn't in Feb 1933.

[Scott Patterson]

Scott, all those events you mentioned were certainly severe (especially the Feb 1835 outbreak in the SE), but for the most part all of those events concerned either the eastern or western part of N America. Locally yes, many places have replicated or exceeded 1899, but taken as a whole across the continent that event stands out spectacularly.

Yes, that's what I meant by the first sentence: It was certainly the most widespread recorded cold snap, but there may have been ones just as severe. Earlier known cold snaps broke some of the "modern records" by a larger margin, but as you say the cold snaps weren't as widespread.

I have to wonder what happened in teh United States during the 1600's since wide spread cold snaps were reported all over the northern hemephere. Places like Mexico and Central America were hit hard with freak snowfalls. Hanoi Vietnam was covered in snow as was all of Hainan Dao China at sea level (farther south than Cancun and about as far south as Acapulco!) and the mountains in the Phillipines. Places like Cairo Egypt (which hasn't occurred since) and the Sahara desert saw snow as well. Of course that's getting too far off topic.