Noreaster Forecast for 1/19/11

[GCANE]

GFS is showing this spinning up along FL coast and trekking up the coast to New England.

Well inside the 40N 70W Benchmark.

Euro is bombing it to under 980mb.

Could be another major snow event for New York area and New England.

Looks like this will be driven by a massive cold air blast from the mid continent drive by a huge UL low forecast to set up in East Canada.

[GCANE]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
138 PM EST WED JAN 12 2011

THIS FORECAST CALLS FOR COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT IN NC/VA LATE
TUESDAY WHICH THEN MOVES UP TO COAST TO JUST OFFSHORE BOSTON AND
INTO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY LATE WEDNESDAY...THOUGH TIMING
ISSUES IN THE GUIDANCE INDICATE THE SYSTEM COULD BE A DAY SLOWER
OR QUICKER...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. WET CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO STREAK EAST AND NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AS WELL AS ALONG THE EAST COAST
AND APPALACHIANS FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD.

ROTH/JAMES

[GCANE]

00Z Euro and GFS runs showing little continuity this morning with the forecasted low.

GFS has it developing way west and Euro bombing much farther to the NE.

As usual, need to watch the evolution of the models on this one.

Could be some chance that this may be a rain/snow mix for NE CONUS.

[GCANE]

Major shift east on the 12Z GFS with a possible bomb when it hits the water.

However, at this point, looks to be a possible rain evernt.

Stay tuned.

[GCANE]

Latest GFS has about 14 to 16" in the Hudson Valley

[Metalicwx220]

Wow four Nor easters this fall/winter 2010-11. Whats the most four one year?

[Stephanie]

Latest GFS has about 14 to 16" in the Hudson Valley

The Hudson Valley can have it - is it Spring yet????

[HURAKAN]

gfs



cmc

[GCANE]

SFC showing that snow won't be so bad as the midwest system phases with the coastal low.

Freezing rain around DC could be a problem.

Looks like along the coast, north of Boston, could get about 7".

Looks like the next system coming up the coast could be around the 27th.