Forecasted MSLP's look to bomb around Long Island inside the 40N 70W Benchmark.
Coastal Low for Jan 27
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
Coastal Low for Jan 27
Globals have been fairly consistant on this forming in the GOM and running up the East Coast on the 26th and 27th.
Forecasted MSLP's look to bomb around Long Island inside the 40N 70W Benchmark.
Forecasted MSLP's look to bomb around Long Island inside the 40N 70W Benchmark.
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Re: Coastal Low for Jan 27
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
431 AM EST FRI JAN 21 2011
*POTENTIAL MAJOR WINTER STORM NEXT WED/THU
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD NOW SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL MAJOR STORM
AROUND MID WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH ITS 00Z RUN AND
IS NOW ONLY ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THE GGEM
IS STILL WAY SLOWER BECAUSE IT DIGS THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY INTO
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEFORE LIFTING IT TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO.
AS PER THE PREEPD...THAT SOLUTION DOES NOT SEEM TO BE AS LIKELY
GIVEN THE PATTERN THIS WINTER SO FAR. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE MANY
DETAILS TO WORK OUT FOR AN EVENT THAT IS STILL AT LEAST 5 OR 6 DAYS
AWAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN SIGNALING A POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM ALREADY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MANY OF THE
DETAILS WILL AGAIN INVOLVE THE TIMING OF PHASING BETWEEN NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. THERE SEEMS TO BE GOOD EVIDENCE THAT A FAIRLY
POWERFUL STORM MAY EVOLVE FROM JUST THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH COPIOUS
GULF AND SUBTROPICAL ATLC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF THERMAL PROFILE HAS
GOTTEN SOMEWHAT COLDER WITH SUCCESSIVE RUNS AND IS COLDER THAN THE
OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. INCLINED TO THINK THE COLDER PROFILE MAY MAKE
SENSE GIVEN THE DEPTH AND EXTENT OF ARCTIC AIR RESIDENT OVER NEW
ENGLAND. NONETHELESS...WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE TRACK WILL BE A
DETERMINING FACTOR. FOR NOW...GOING WITH PTYEP OF SNOW ESSENTIAL
ALONG AND NW OF THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR AND RAIN OR SNOW TO THE SE.
HAVE KEPT POPS IN CHANCE RANGE DUE TO HOW FAR OUT IN TIME...BUT
INCREASED A LITTLE AND ADJUSTED TO ACCOMMODATE THE PROBABLE SLOWER
TIMING FROM PRIOR RUNS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY HIGH
IMPACT EVENT WITH HEAVY SNOW AND HIGH WINDS. ASTRO TIDES HAVE COME
DOWN SINCE PAST THE FULL MOON BUT STILL MIGHT HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME
COASTAL FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION...IF EITHER THE
00Z ECMWF OR 00Z GFS SOLUTION COMES CLOSE TO VERIFYING.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
431 AM EST FRI JAN 21 2011
*POTENTIAL MAJOR WINTER STORM NEXT WED/THU
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD NOW SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL MAJOR STORM
AROUND MID WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH ITS 00Z RUN AND
IS NOW ONLY ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THE GGEM
IS STILL WAY SLOWER BECAUSE IT DIGS THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY INTO
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEFORE LIFTING IT TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO.
AS PER THE PREEPD...THAT SOLUTION DOES NOT SEEM TO BE AS LIKELY
GIVEN THE PATTERN THIS WINTER SO FAR. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE MANY
DETAILS TO WORK OUT FOR AN EVENT THAT IS STILL AT LEAST 5 OR 6 DAYS
AWAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN SIGNALING A POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM ALREADY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MANY OF THE
DETAILS WILL AGAIN INVOLVE THE TIMING OF PHASING BETWEEN NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. THERE SEEMS TO BE GOOD EVIDENCE THAT A FAIRLY
POWERFUL STORM MAY EVOLVE FROM JUST THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH COPIOUS
GULF AND SUBTROPICAL ATLC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF THERMAL PROFILE HAS
GOTTEN SOMEWHAT COLDER WITH SUCCESSIVE RUNS AND IS COLDER THAN THE
OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. INCLINED TO THINK THE COLDER PROFILE MAY MAKE
SENSE GIVEN THE DEPTH AND EXTENT OF ARCTIC AIR RESIDENT OVER NEW
ENGLAND. NONETHELESS...WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE TRACK WILL BE A
DETERMINING FACTOR. FOR NOW...GOING WITH PTYEP OF SNOW ESSENTIAL
ALONG AND NW OF THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR AND RAIN OR SNOW TO THE SE.
HAVE KEPT POPS IN CHANCE RANGE DUE TO HOW FAR OUT IN TIME...BUT
INCREASED A LITTLE AND ADJUSTED TO ACCOMMODATE THE PROBABLE SLOWER
TIMING FROM PRIOR RUNS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY HIGH
IMPACT EVENT WITH HEAVY SNOW AND HIGH WINDS. ASTRO TIDES HAVE COME
DOWN SINCE PAST THE FULL MOON BUT STILL MIGHT HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME
COASTAL FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION...IF EITHER THE
00Z ECMWF OR 00Z GFS SOLUTION COMES CLOSE TO VERIFYING.
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Metalicwx220
Re: Coastal Low for Jan 27
GCANE wrote:12Z GFS has 20"+ Philly and good part of SE PA.
YEAH I believe I see snow in Savannah. HOORAH
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brunota2003
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Re: Coastal Low for Jan 27
MAN! I have about 3 feet of snow in the yard. The squirrels have made a huge network of tunnels under the snow. If this storm pans out the way it looks like it will, we could have more than a foot of snow on top of what we already have. I already cannot see the car from the house as it is behind about 6 feet of shoveled snow. 
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Re: Coastal Low for Jan 27
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
437 AM EST MON JAN 24 2011
WHAT IS CERTAIN IS A CLOSED LOW SYS IN THE NERN GULF 0Z WED WILL
SIMULTANEOUSLY DEEPEN AND LIFT NWD INTO THE OUTER BANKS BY 18Z WED
AND ACRS THE BENCHMARK AROUND 6Z THURS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
UPR LVL DIV AIDED BY A COUPLING OF LEFT EXIT/RIGHT ENTRANCE RGNS OF
H3 JET AXES...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OF WARM AND MOIST AIR...COUPLED
SFC AND UPR LVL JET AXES LENDING TO STRONG AGEO VERTICAL CIRC...AND
CONSEQUENTIAL TROWAL STRUCTURE PARENTED WITH MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS
SHOULD LEND TO A VERY IMPRESSIVE AND DEEP COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. IT
IS EXPECTED THAT AN INITIAL STRATIFORM PRECIP SHIELD WILL OVERSPREAD
THE RGN WITH A LATER AREA OF FAVORABLE HEAVIER PRECIP DVLPMNT ALONG
THE NW QUADRANT OF THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE
NEW ENG COASTLINE. LATEST TRENDS HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIP
DVLPMNT TO COME ASHORE BUT TO REMAIN MORESO IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE STORM.
SOME FINAL CONCERNS FOCUS UPON THE FACT OF HOW DEEP THIS SYS WILL
BECOME RESULTING IN VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY FOR
MARINE AREAS. THERE IS SOME FORETHOUGH TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR
COASTAL FLOODING...BUT WILL FOCUS ON THIS DETAIL AS A BETTER HANDLE
ON THE FCST IS OBTAINED.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
630 AM EST MON JAN 24 2011
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO FOCUS RE THE
COASTAL STORM PROGGED TO IMPACT THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO THU...AS A
VIGOROUS SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE DEEP SOUTH BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVES NE UP THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
COASTS. USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND 23/12Z ECWMF FOR THIS
FORECAST...WITH ASSOCIATED PRIMARY SFC LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NE
GULF COAST REDEVELOPING ALONG A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE
CAROLINA COASTS TUE NIGHT INTO WED...THEN MOVING OFF THE SRN MID
ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT AND PASS JUST SE OF LONG ISLAND LATE WED
NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.
PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED MORNING...BEGINNING
AS SNOW...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY RAIN AT THE COAST AND
A WINTRY MIX INLAND AS WARMER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN ALOFT...WITH TOP
DOWN PARTIAL THICKNESS P-TYPE ALGORITHMS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT.
ANY ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY ON WED LOOK TO BE MINOR AND
CONFINED MORE TO THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR WED NIGHT...MAINLY VIA STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS AS A 50-60 KT EASTERLY LLJ
OVERRIDES A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NE FROM THE SFC LOW
TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND VIA FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED
BANDING ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS WELL NW OF THE SFC LOW.
MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BACK NE-N AS THE
SFC LOW APPROACHES...WITH SFC TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AND
ALLOWING PRECIP TO TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW...WITH AT LEAST A
TRANSITIONAL PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE
INTERIOR. THIS PERIOD OF ICING COULD BE MORE PROLONGED ACROSS SE CT
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LLJ CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT WARMER AIR IN ALOFT
FOR A GOOD PART OF WED NIGHT.
WHEN ALL IS SAID/DONE...THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...AND SIGNIFICANT ICING FOR
SOUTHEAST CT. LESSER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE MORE LIKELY FOR NYC AND
LONG ISLAND...BUT IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH DEVIATION FROM THE ABOVE
SCENARIO TO BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL/ICING FARTHER SOUTH TO
THESE AREAS AS WELL...AS HPC WWD FORECAST SUGGESTS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
437 AM EST MON JAN 24 2011
WHAT IS CERTAIN IS A CLOSED LOW SYS IN THE NERN GULF 0Z WED WILL
SIMULTANEOUSLY DEEPEN AND LIFT NWD INTO THE OUTER BANKS BY 18Z WED
AND ACRS THE BENCHMARK AROUND 6Z THURS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
UPR LVL DIV AIDED BY A COUPLING OF LEFT EXIT/RIGHT ENTRANCE RGNS OF
H3 JET AXES...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OF WARM AND MOIST AIR...COUPLED
SFC AND UPR LVL JET AXES LENDING TO STRONG AGEO VERTICAL CIRC...AND
CONSEQUENTIAL TROWAL STRUCTURE PARENTED WITH MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS
SHOULD LEND TO A VERY IMPRESSIVE AND DEEP COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. IT
IS EXPECTED THAT AN INITIAL STRATIFORM PRECIP SHIELD WILL OVERSPREAD
THE RGN WITH A LATER AREA OF FAVORABLE HEAVIER PRECIP DVLPMNT ALONG
THE NW QUADRANT OF THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE
NEW ENG COASTLINE. LATEST TRENDS HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIP
DVLPMNT TO COME ASHORE BUT TO REMAIN MORESO IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE STORM.
SOME FINAL CONCERNS FOCUS UPON THE FACT OF HOW DEEP THIS SYS WILL
BECOME RESULTING IN VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY FOR
MARINE AREAS. THERE IS SOME FORETHOUGH TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR
COASTAL FLOODING...BUT WILL FOCUS ON THIS DETAIL AS A BETTER HANDLE
ON THE FCST IS OBTAINED.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
630 AM EST MON JAN 24 2011
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO FOCUS RE THE
COASTAL STORM PROGGED TO IMPACT THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO THU...AS A
VIGOROUS SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE DEEP SOUTH BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVES NE UP THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
COASTS. USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND 23/12Z ECWMF FOR THIS
FORECAST...WITH ASSOCIATED PRIMARY SFC LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NE
GULF COAST REDEVELOPING ALONG A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE
CAROLINA COASTS TUE NIGHT INTO WED...THEN MOVING OFF THE SRN MID
ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT AND PASS JUST SE OF LONG ISLAND LATE WED
NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.
PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED MORNING...BEGINNING
AS SNOW...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY RAIN AT THE COAST AND
A WINTRY MIX INLAND AS WARMER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN ALOFT...WITH TOP
DOWN PARTIAL THICKNESS P-TYPE ALGORITHMS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT.
ANY ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY ON WED LOOK TO BE MINOR AND
CONFINED MORE TO THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR WED NIGHT...MAINLY VIA STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS AS A 50-60 KT EASTERLY LLJ
OVERRIDES A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NE FROM THE SFC LOW
TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND VIA FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED
BANDING ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS WELL NW OF THE SFC LOW.
MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BACK NE-N AS THE
SFC LOW APPROACHES...WITH SFC TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AND
ALLOWING PRECIP TO TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW...WITH AT LEAST A
TRANSITIONAL PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE
INTERIOR. THIS PERIOD OF ICING COULD BE MORE PROLONGED ACROSS SE CT
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LLJ CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT WARMER AIR IN ALOFT
FOR A GOOD PART OF WED NIGHT.
WHEN ALL IS SAID/DONE...THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...AND SIGNIFICANT ICING FOR
SOUTHEAST CT. LESSER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE MORE LIKELY FOR NYC AND
LONG ISLAND...BUT IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH DEVIATION FROM THE ABOVE
SCENARIO TO BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL/ICING FARTHER SOUTH TO
THESE AREAS AS WELL...AS HPC WWD FORECAST SUGGESTS.
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Re: Coastal Low for Jan 27
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
342 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
VALID 12Z TUE JAN 25 2011 - 12Z THU JAN 27 2011
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING TONIGHT. FIRST
HOWEVER...LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE
ACROSS FLORIDA. RAPID MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING
CYCLONE MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM THE DEEP SOUTH THIS MORNING TO FLORIDA AND
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. CONVECTION COULD
ORGANIZE INTO A LINE OF STORMS CONTAINING STRONG AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE A CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERS
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW OVER TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY STARTING
THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY YIELDING LIGHT TO
MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS.
FARTHER NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING
RAIN WITH RAIN MIXING IN AT TIMES...ENDING AS A WET...HEAVY SNOW.
AS ENERGY TRANSFERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO A LOW ALONG A COASTAL
FRONT...RAPID DEEPENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THE LOW TRACKING
NORTH...JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...AN
AXIS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST FROM EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA TO MASSACHUSETTS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS MIXED WITH
SOME ICE ACCUMULATION.
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Re: Coastal Low for Jan 27
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
104 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE UPGRADED ENTIRE AREA TO A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON 12Z MODEL SUITE...
MODELS
CONVERGING ON EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT TRACKS
NE FROM THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE 40/70
BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DUE TO THE IMMENSE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
WITH THIS DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM. BUT BASED ON QPF/LIFT POTENTIAL AND EXPECTED THERMAL
FIELDS BELIEVE WATCH IS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS HIGH PRES RETREATS TO THE N ON WED...A COASTAL STORM WILL TAKE
SHAPE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT IT TRACKS NE OVER OR JUST OUTSIDE THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK AND
THEN INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. THIS TRACK NORMALLY MEANS AN ALL
SNOW EVENT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...HOWEVER SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WARMING ALOFT WITH A MIX/CHANGEOVER AT THE
COAST. THE SREF IS THE WARMEST AND WAS DISREGARDED. THE NAM KEEPS
THE WHOLE EVENT SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WHILE THE GFS DOES
INDICATE ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF SN/PL/RA MIX IN NJ/NYC/LI...POSSIBLY
COASTAL CT.
SINCE CONFIDENCE OF REACHING 6 INCHES OF SNOW...IS AT LEAST 50
PERCENT ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT...MOST OF THE LOWER HUDSON
COUNTY AND WESTERN PASSAIC...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
THESE AREAS. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH LATER
TODAY...BUT THE DURATION AND TIMING OF THE MIXED PRECIP IS WHAT IS
TROUBLING. TOTAL QPF IS ALSO STILL UNCERTAIN...SEE HYDRO SECTION
FOR DETAILS.
WAA PRECIP SHOULD RUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON WED.
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW EVERYWHERE...THEN THE
BEST TIMING FOR THE MIX IS BETWEEN 7PM AND 1AM. EVENING RUSH ON
WED AND THU MORNING COULD BE TREACHEROUS. COLD AIR RUSHES BACK IN
ON A N-NW FLOW AS THE STORM DEPARTS CHANGING THE PRECIP BACK TO
ALL SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. IT APPEARS THAT IF WARNING
CRITERIA WILL BE MET AT THE COAST...IT WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE STORM WHEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS EXPECT TO OCCUR...AGAIN
BETWEEN 7PM AND 1AM...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW.
FORECAST IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS TIME.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
104 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE UPGRADED ENTIRE AREA TO A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON 12Z MODEL SUITE...
MODELS
CONVERGING ON EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT TRACKS
NE FROM THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE 40/70
BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DUE TO THE IMMENSE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
WITH THIS DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM. BUT BASED ON QPF/LIFT POTENTIAL AND EXPECTED THERMAL
FIELDS BELIEVE WATCH IS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS HIGH PRES RETREATS TO THE N ON WED...A COASTAL STORM WILL TAKE
SHAPE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT IT TRACKS NE OVER OR JUST OUTSIDE THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK AND
THEN INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. THIS TRACK NORMALLY MEANS AN ALL
SNOW EVENT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...HOWEVER SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WARMING ALOFT WITH A MIX/CHANGEOVER AT THE
COAST. THE SREF IS THE WARMEST AND WAS DISREGARDED. THE NAM KEEPS
THE WHOLE EVENT SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WHILE THE GFS DOES
INDICATE ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF SN/PL/RA MIX IN NJ/NYC/LI...POSSIBLY
COASTAL CT.
SINCE CONFIDENCE OF REACHING 6 INCHES OF SNOW...IS AT LEAST 50
PERCENT ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT...MOST OF THE LOWER HUDSON
COUNTY AND WESTERN PASSAIC...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
THESE AREAS. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH LATER
TODAY...BUT THE DURATION AND TIMING OF THE MIXED PRECIP IS WHAT IS
TROUBLING. TOTAL QPF IS ALSO STILL UNCERTAIN...SEE HYDRO SECTION
FOR DETAILS.
WAA PRECIP SHOULD RUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON WED.
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW EVERYWHERE...THEN THE
BEST TIMING FOR THE MIX IS BETWEEN 7PM AND 1AM. EVENING RUSH ON
WED AND THU MORNING COULD BE TREACHEROUS. COLD AIR RUSHES BACK IN
ON A N-NW FLOW AS THE STORM DEPARTS CHANGING THE PRECIP BACK TO
ALL SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. IT APPEARS THAT IF WARNING
CRITERIA WILL BE MET AT THE COAST...IT WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE STORM WHEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS EXPECT TO OCCUR...AGAIN
BETWEEN 7PM AND 1AM...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW.
FORECAST IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS TIME.
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Re: Coastal Low for Jan 27
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
334 AM EST WED JAN 26 2011
VALID 12Z WED JAN 26 2011 - 12Z FRI JAN 28 2011
THE ONGOING STORM IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL EVOLVE INTO A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING
WHERE IT WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN...ALL WHILE A SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP
THE EAST COAST. RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL TAKE
PLACE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING CAUSING AN AREA OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE COMMA-HEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD. WHILE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION TYPES CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC...A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW WILL OCCUR AS
THE SYSTEM EDGES NORTHEASTWARD. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO BECOME RATHER POTENT IN STRENGTH...A ROUGHLY 3 TO 6
HOUR BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
WEST VIRGINIA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND GENERATING A SWATH OF 6 TO
12 INCHES BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR PLACES LIKE CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
LOWER UPSTATE NEW YORK WILL LIKELY STAY ALL SNOW...HOWEVER LOWER
SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS.
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES LEAVING BEHIND PARTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST AS A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...TOUCHING OFF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ONE
DISTURBANCE IN PARTICULAR WILL REACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY WHERE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MICHIGAN
AND INDIANA...EASTWARD TO THE APPALACHIANS.
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
334 AM EST WED JAN 26 2011
VALID 12Z WED JAN 26 2011 - 12Z FRI JAN 28 2011
THE ONGOING STORM IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL EVOLVE INTO A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING
WHERE IT WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN...ALL WHILE A SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP
THE EAST COAST. RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL TAKE
PLACE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING CAUSING AN AREA OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE COMMA-HEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD. WHILE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION TYPES CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC...A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW WILL OCCUR AS
THE SYSTEM EDGES NORTHEASTWARD. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO BECOME RATHER POTENT IN STRENGTH...A ROUGHLY 3 TO 6
HOUR BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
WEST VIRGINIA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND GENERATING A SWATH OF 6 TO
12 INCHES BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR PLACES LIKE CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
LOWER UPSTATE NEW YORK WILL LIKELY STAY ALL SNOW...HOWEVER LOWER
SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS.
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES LEAVING BEHIND PARTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST AS A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...TOUCHING OFF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ONE
DISTURBANCE IN PARTICULAR WILL REACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY WHERE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MICHIGAN
AND INDIANA...EASTWARD TO THE APPALACHIANS.
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