Big Midwest/Eastern Snow Mon - Thurs

[brunota2003]

I got Ft. Drum on tap for tommorrow, which should encompass tues and wed.

When this evening will you be doing Drum? Have to get up at like 2 am for range tomorrow

[Stephanie]

OMG!! Everyone in the Midwest especially be careful!!! I'm having images of the ice storm that hit the Northeast and Canada a couple of years ago.

[CrazyC83]

OMG!! Everyone in the Midwest especially be careful!!! I'm having images of the ice storm that hit the Northeast and Canada a couple of years ago.

That would have been January 1998.

[Stephanie]

OMG!! Everyone in the Midwest especially be careful!!! I'm having images of the ice storm that hit the Northeast and Canada a couple of years ago.

That would have been January 1998.

Wow - that long ago?

[ksstormhunter]

Ft Drum is uploaded and fresh new runs of cities across the midwest, new run here in four hours. http://smartwxmodel.net

[ksstormhunter]

Just uploaded the latest 07Z smartmodel run, still on track for heavy snow, and winds.


SmartModel
http://smartwxmodel.net

[Frank2]

Looking at the national radar loop I'm starting to wonder if this entire scenario (per the media, a storm stretching from Texas to Maine) was over-advertised (hyped)...

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/index_loop.php

Now, I'm not saying the blizzard conditions to the north of the low are fiction, because they are happening as I type this, but per the radar mosaic there definitely was a lack of upper support for the weak ULL now exiting the NE US, and while the second low is powerful, so far, the rain area is larger than the area of frozen precip or snow...

Of the discussions I've read today, the low is forecast to move towards the Great Lakes and weaken, with a second low forecast to form east-southeast of NYC - but that is not forecast to deepen significantly, so again it seems that the entire scenario is so complex that the NWS (and media OCM's) have been having a difficult time with this system...

In fact, the one NWS discussion mentioned the dry air currently wrapping into the center of the low over MO - and per their comment that this might shorten the snowfall period for certain areas in IL, so time will tell - still a long evening ahead for many...

Frank

[Dave]

Frank I'm seeing the same thing from the radar's for IL, IN, KY, & OH...we've have freezing rain here now heavy at times but to my SW it looks like a cutoff of all precipitation at least for now. Unless something developes on the back side of this L overnight I'm thinking it's going to pull up into the Great Lakes and take the bulk of the snow with it. I'm seeing a dry line out by Evansville IN now and pulling dry air NE into the Louisville, Cincinnati, then on NE to Indianapolis region overnight. I know everyone to my W/NW/N of me has taken it harder than we have so far and if this cut off turns out to be true, tomorrow may be a better day than tonight will be. We'll see.

[brunota2003]

Well, here is the forecast from the weather office for Fort Drum, NY:

Tonight: Snow, mainly after 2am. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 8. Wind chill values as low as -7. Northeast wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Wednesday: Snow before noon, then snow and freezing drizzle between noon and 3pm, then snow after 3pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 20. Wind chill values as low as -4. East wind between 11 and 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible.

Wednesday Night: Snow showers, mainly before 1am. Low around 2. Wind chill values as low as -9. North wind between 8 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Here is the AFD, including info on that dry slotting expected tomorrow:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
630 PM UPDATE...EVERYTHING CONTINUES ON TRACK FOR THE MAJOR
STORM...WITH ONLY REAL QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH THE SLEET/FRZG
RAIN GETS. ALL GRIDS LOOK FINE JUST TWEAKED TEMPS AND REPUBLISHED.
DELAYED TIMING MAYBE AN HOUR...STILL LOOKS LIKE MAIN SNOW SURGE
IN MDNT TO 6-7 AM FOR BUF AND AN HOUR LATER AT ROC. WILL REVISIT
ALL AROUND 10 PM. PREV DISC FOLLOWS IN FULL...

IN A NUTSHELL...A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF OUR
WELL-ADVERTISED MAJOR WINTER STORM...WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY FILLING AND
TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE ON THURSDAY AS ITS
ENERGY TRANSFERS TO A DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN THIS SPACE FOR DAYS NOW...THIS FEATURE WILL
HAVE PLENTIFUL AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...ALONG WITH
TREMENDOUS AMOUNTS OF LIFT. THIS LIFT WILL BE SUPPLIED BY A NUMBER
OF FORCING MECHANISMS WHICH INCLUDE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...
CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF A 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...AND
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT COURTESY OF AN IMPRESSIVE COUPLED UPPER
LEVEL JET STRUCTURE. ADDING ALL OF THIS UP...THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CERTAINTY OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS SUPPORTING QPF
TOTALS OF AT LEAST AN INCH...IF NOT A LITTLE MORE THAN THAT.

AS FOR TIMING...WE EXPECT THE STEADY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW TO BEGIN WORKING INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AS EARLY AS 7-8 PM
THIS EVENING...THE BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AREAS BETWEEN 10-11
PM...AND THE WATERTOWN AREA DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL THEN OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY AS THE LOWER AND
UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING IS MAXIMIZED...THEN WILL DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY FOR A WHILE FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS
DRY SLOTTING WORKS IN ALOFT. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW
CENTER...INCREASING WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND LIFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER INCREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THIS SECOND SURGE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS
WHAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

WITH REGARD TO PTYPE...MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THIS
EVENT...THOUGH A BRIEF MIX WITH SLEET CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT AS
FAR NORTH AS THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO SYRACUSE. IN
THIS AREA...STORM TOTALS OF AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW /GIVE OR TAKE A
COUPLE OF INCHES/ WILL BE LIKELY...WITH AS MUCH AS A FOOT AND A HALF
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITHIN THIS SAME
AREA...SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD
TOMORROW MORNING AND EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVELS DRY
OUT AND THE PRECIPITATION TEMPORARILY LIGHTENS...SO HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF THIS TO THE FORECAST.

FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER AGREEMENT THAT INCREASINGLY AMOUNTS OF WARMER
AIR ALOFT WILL COME INTO PLAY AS THE STORM APPROACHES ON A NOW
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ENOUGH WARMING IS NOW EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER TO
EXPERIENCE A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT...
WHICH WILL THEN LAST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WILL RESULT
IN SOMEWHAT REDUCED SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 4-7"...IT WILL ALSO INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING. AS MUCH AS A QUARTER TO HALF AN
INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION NOW APPEARS TO BE POSSIBLE...BEFORE RENEWED
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW RESULTS IN A CHANGEOVER BACK
TO SNOW DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE OTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR TO THIS STORM WILL OF BE THE
WINDS. EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH OUT AHEAD OF THE
STORM WILL LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF ANY SNOW
TONIGHT...THEN WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE WILL
LEAD TO SIMILAR PROBLEMS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW CENTER
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS MAY ALSO HELP TO BRING DOWN SOME
SNOW AND ICE COVERED TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES...LEADING TO
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

[ksstormhunter]

Just uploaded new 04-05Z Smartmodel runs for Ft Drum and Syracuse. Looks like around 11inches around the Fort Drum area and 9 inches for the Syracuse area. Output can be viewed at http://smartwxmodel.net

[Brent]

Wow.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
1208 AM CST WED FEB 2 2011

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
020815-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-
LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-
LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...
WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...
OTTAWA...OSWEGO...MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...
WATSEKA...PAXTON...GARY...VALPARAISO...MOROCCO...RENSSELAER...
FOWLER
1208 AM CST WED FEB 2 2011 /108 AM EST WED FEB 2 2011/

...BLIZZARD CREATING LIFE THREATENING SITUATION FOR MOTORISTS...

REPORTS FROM MEDIA AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALLY INDICATE
THAT HUNDREDS IF NOT THOUSANDS OF VEHICLES HAVE GONE OFF THE
ROADS. THE GOVERNOR HAS ACTIVATED THE NATIONAL GUARD WHO ARE
CURRENTLY RESCUING STRANDED MOTORISTS.

THE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN
OPEN AREAS WHERE WHITE OUT CONDITIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
IMPOSSIBLE. LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS ARE TELLING PEOPLE TO
STAY OFF THE ROADS AS NOT A SINGLE ROAD IS PASSABLE IN RURAL AND
OPEN AREAS. THEY ARE ASKING PEOPLE TO STAY IN A SAFE PLACE AND NOT
TO LEAVE HOME TONIGHT.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. DO NOT TRAVEL
UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY OVERNIGHT.

$$

IZZI

and more wow...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CIVIL DANGER WARNING
WISCONSIN EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN
WISCONSIN
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1241 AM CST WED FEB 2 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
WISCONSIN EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN
WISCONSIN.

DRIVING IS EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TONIGHT ON ALL ROADS IN SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. IF YOU BECOME STRANDED...EMERGENCY VEHICLES MAY NOT BE
ABLE TO REACH YOU.

IF YOU ARE STRANDED...DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE. RUN YOUR VEHICLE
10 MINUTES PER HOUR...AND CRACK A DOWNWIND WINDOW FOR VENTILATION.


$$
KAPELA/SEARS

[brunota2003]

Buffalo had to do some big changes for the cwa because of warm air surging further north than they thought...plus the low is moving right over us, instead of off to our west, causing us to miss the deformation zone and heaviest snows. Regardless, they are still expecting total totals in the 12 inch range. The duty day here at Ft. Drum has been canceled by the garrison commander (due to severe weather conditions), minus mission essential personal of course.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
642 AM EST WED FEB 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT BROUGHT A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT WILL CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
TODAY...THEN MERGE A SECOND LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. THIS PATH OF THE STORM WILL RESULT IN LESSER
SNOWFALL TOTALS TODAY...BUT THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL STILL MAKE
FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND BRING A RETURN TO DRIER AND QUIETER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE 08Z OBSERVATIONS AND THE ONE HOUR SNOW DEPTH ALGORITHM SHOW THAT
MIXED PCPN HAS ALREADY REACHED THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...IMPLYING THAT
THE WARMER AIR ALOFT HAS SURGED EVEN FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN
ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. THE 3 HOUR PRESSURE CHANGE PLOT SUGGESTS THAT THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND REACH WESTERN NEW
YORK BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS PATH OF THE LOW WILL KEEP
THE DEFORMATION ZONE AND STEADIER SNOW MAINLY TO OUR NORTHWEST.
AT THE SAME TIME...THE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BE WORKING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. BASED
ON THESE TRENDS...THE SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN
ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE DECIDED TO DOWNGRADE THE
WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS
SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE WARMER AIR ALOFT
WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME REACHING THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL STAY
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE MAIN STORM CENTER. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE
UP THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR OSWEGO...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS
COUNTIES...BUT WILL LOWER TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

AS THE SURFACE LOW HEADS INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW WILL GENERATE MORE SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COUPLE INCHES
OF NEW SNOW EXPECTED.

BECAUSE THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS OUR CWA...THE WINDS
WILL BE SHIFTING DIRECTION AND WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. THIS SHOULD
HELP TO LESSEN THE IMPACT FROM BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MERGE WITH THE
SECONDARY LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE TOWARD WESTERN NEW YORK. AREA TEMPERATURES WILL THEN HOLD
STEADY OR FALL SLOWLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
SETTING UP BEHIND THE LOW.

[Dave]

Have a wind advisory in effect until 6 pm tonight but the snow did miss us more or less, have some snow showers right now but nothing compared to people NW of me. Worst problem we had so far was the winds that hit last night while ice was still on the trees. Power outages across the county, tree's across roads, and a couple fires from power lines being torn away from structures. At 9 am it's currently snowing though only calling for a dusting & the winds are still strong. Temperature is at 23 and falling.

[Frank2]

I agree with what Dave and the others mentioned - it's been a system that gave more snow to some than expected (OKC, KCI) and less to others (IND, PIT, BUF), but just about right for others (CHI), so a complex system for forecasters to forecast (lol)...

The NWS CHI discussion mentioned that last night's thundersnow included hail - along with lightning and very heavy snow - what a combination...

For Jim Cantore (TWC) it was deja vu all over again (lol) - and similar to his thundersnow on-camera experience in Boston about 10 years ago...

Frank